What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

BoatMad

I don’t agree with the ultimate doom and gloom , social distancing will be reduced as an expediency , any way it looks like this virus has been here for far longer then thought , so it’s actually far less virulent . The rip.ie study shows that many counties has higher death spikes in the 2017 2018 flu period

We will all collectively realise we have being over doing the lockdown and the release will be speeded up , social distancing will be gone by the autumn

Collectively , the population will accept a modest death rate to have a functioning economy

Roger the cabin boy

Snow Garden wrote: »

Good post. I too am puzzled why people are not discussing the upcoming depression in any substantive way.

I think your 'B) Society changes from Covid' is spot on. I hear people talking about returning to their favourite 'lunch cafes' in urban centres and then consider that most of them will be unable to operate.

The financial system itself is at risk because many countries will go it alone when things get really bad.

What would you recommend in terms of preparation for the post Covid world?

I don't know.

But, like everything in life, being prudent, careful and keeping your eyes and ears open will be a big positive.

I don't want to come over all religous (because i am not religous myself) but, the story of Noah and the Arc is perhaps as relevent now as ever.

Not that humanity is going to be washed away (and i don't think that was the point of the story tbh) but that Noah saw the future for what it was, and prepared himself as best he could and because of that, he and his generations survived.

So just look and watch and listen and be prudent and careful. Control what you can, but mitigate what you can't as best.

I wouldn't be buying a house, or a big car, or anything like that for the next 18months. I would be paying down debt and getting my house in order as best i could.

That type of thing imagine will be good.

What will you do?

Roger the cabin boy

snotboogie wrote: »

Great points, I love seeing more and more people waking up to the fact that social distancing is not some minor inconvenience. Long term social distancing will transform human society in a way not seen since WW2.

Yea,

Its going to be really significant. I suspect in ways we can't see yet either.

Being social is who we are, its in our DNA.
No man is an island eh?

Roger the cabin boy

BoatMad wrote: »

I don’t agree with the ultimate doom and gloom , social distancing will be reduced as an expediency , any way it looks like this virus has been here for far longer then thought , so it’s actually far less virulent . The rip.ie study shows that many counties has higher death spikes in the 2017 2018 flu period

We will all collectively realise we have being over doing the lockdown and the release will be speeded up , social distancing will be gone by the autumn

Collectively , the population will accept a modest death rate to have a functioning economy

Discussing problems in an honest and forthright manner isn't "Doom & Gloom"

Thats a narative which is half of our problems in the first place.

BoatMad

I wouldn't be buying a house, or a big car, or anything like that for the next 18months. I would be paying down debt and getting my house in order as best i could.

Not a great idea to pay down a loan when borrowed money is virtually free , interest rates will be in the ground for several years now, deals will abound

Roger the cabin boy

BoatMad wrote: »

Not a great idea to pay down a loan when borrowed money is virtually free , interest rates will be in the ground for several years now, deals will abound

Kinda true as well, which just tells you how much of a mess we really are in...

Snow Garden

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

I don't know.

But, like everything in life, being prudent, careful and keeping your eyes and ears open will be a big positive.

I don't want to come over all religous (because i am not religous myself) but, the story of Noah and the Arc is perhaps as relevent now as ever.

Not that humanity is going to be washed away (and i don't think that was the point of the story tbh) but that Noah saw the future for what it was, and prepared himself as best he could and because of that, he and his generations survived.

So just look and watch and listen and be prudent and careful. Control what you can, but mitigate what you can't as best.

I wouldn't be buying a house, or a big car, or anything like that for the next 18months. I would be paying down debt and getting my house in order as best i could.

That type of thing imagine will be good.

What will you do?

I am paying down the mortgage faster now. I am looking to move my pension away from equity. I am very surprised that the stock markets rebounded somewhat after the initial crash - it wont last. Anyone buying a house now is going to regret it.

One of the biggest problems is that there is no emigration safety valve. There is nowhere to go and we have higher salary expectations than so many other nationalities.

BoatMad

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Kinda true as well, which just tells you how much of a mess we really are in...

Sadly a mess of our own over reaction , no harm like self harm

seamus

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

I think that is untrue tbh.

In my experience, its the new liberal generation who hasn't had to struggle.
Anyone under 40 who missed the 80's.

Well we already know from studies that it's the older generations who strugge with critical thinking and are far less able to identify real information online from fake information.

The idea that under-40s haven't struggled is laughable. You do remember the last recession? The biggest one since 1929? Anyone who is under 40 today was just trying to get on their feet during that time and had to start back again.

And then tean years later they're just about recovering, and bang. Another recession, larger again.

Anyone born between 1945 and 1965 has no idea what it is to really struggle. They lived through a golden age of economic and social growth, they now sit on the vast bulk of the world's wealth and have remained mostly isolated from the 2 (now 3) major recessions since 1999. They never had to live through deprivation like their parents did, or like their children will have to.

BoatMad

seamus wrote: »

Well we already know from studies that it's the older generations who strugge with critical thinking and are far less able to identify real information online from fake information.

The idea that under-40s haven't struggled is laughable. You do remember the last recession?.....

Anyone born between 1945 and 1965 has no idea what it is to really struggle. They lived through a golden age of economic and social growth, they now sit on the vast bulk of the world's wealth and have remained mostly isolated from the 2 (now 3) major recessions since 1999. They never had to live through deprivation like their parents did, or like their children will have to.

Yes, it’s been wonderful , we breezed through the 80s recession , giggled through the 2008 one , and now this , yeap, cushey all right

My dad was able to buy his house at 25 , I was 30

Roger the cabin boy

seamus wrote: »

Well we already know from studies that it's the older generations who strugge with critical thinking and are far less able to identify real information online from fake information.

The idea that under-40s haven't struggled is laughable. You do remember the last recession? The biggest one since 1929? Anyone who is under 40 today was just trying to get on their feet during that time and had to start back again.

And then tean years later they're just about recovering, and bang. Another recession, larger again.

Anyone born between 1945 and 1965 has no idea what it is to really struggle. They lived through a golden age of economic and social growth, they now sit on the vast bulk of the world's wealth and have remained mostly isolated from the 2 (now 3) major recessions since 1999. They never had to live through deprivation like their parents did, or like their children will have to.

The late 70's and 80's were tough times. Really tough times.
But because whilst they were tough, the economy had some sanity to it, housing was still possible, rents were relatively reasonable, etc so it has the illusion today, looking back that they were times of plenty. Not so.

You miss the point,
Most of the younger generations have been hiding under the wings of the older generations. Those older generations won't be around for long and they will now begin to pull from the economy as the pensions and old age care, etc kick in.

Their children have been cucooned for the most part (even through the short lifed post 2008 crunch).

Thats about to change.

Nutty Nutritionist

ShareShare wrote: »

How is she measured as a top virologist? everything i read seems to state massive peer reviewed discrediting of her work on Chronic fatigue syndrome and her new virus isolate. There were warrants for her stealing samples of cell cultures from the company she was hired for, with co workers stating she ordered them to send them to a co researcher she was publishing with. She only has seemed to have published two pieces including her thesis.

My suggestion was for people to begin to open their eyes and in that, I only mentioned one source of information. There is corruption everywhere, mainstream media, politics, medicine etc etc. It is however, really important right now that each of us question "everything" (including Judy Mikovits). I could give countless other examples that are worth questioning like:

• Taken directly from the Irish Examiner - Tony Holohan "Anyone presenting to hospital with Covid 19 who subsequently dies, regardless of the cause will be included to the mortality total, in line with WHO guidance".
• Suggested wearing masks - supermarket staff, Police, government - none of them wearing masks and none dropping like flies.
• The virus has moved from 2km to 5km radius.
• The hospitals are empty.
• Death rates are not up - undertakers are doing the same amount of work as the last couple of years.
• The beach must be riddled with the virus, so we are unable to go there.
• Many fake media photographs of coffins in Italy (duplicated from news articles in the past).
• No scientific proof that the masks prevent a virus.
• No scientific proof that "social" distancing works.

There are many sources and books.
Virus Mania - Book
Dr. Erickson and colleague who gave information from New York Hospital - bitchute (youtube removed).
Dr. Andrew Kaufman
Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg
Italian Leader Vittorio Sgarbi's youtube video

The_Honeybadger

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

In 6 months time, The economy is going of pre-Covid is going to look an awful lot different than (hopefully) Post-Covid.

I am perplexed as to why the coming economic (and social) earthquake isn't being discussed with urgency at the moment. I imagine its the authorities wanting society to just get past the lockdown first and then worry about it, but i honestly believe its going to be monumentaly different.

For two reasons mainly,

A) Social distancing doesn't look to be going away any time soon. And by soon, i mean until a vacinne is found, tested and given 6 months to work its way through the population. The knock-ons of social distancing are mind boggling. In a sentance, its less of everything. LEss travel, social interaction, tourism, work, blah, blah...
Just take a minute to really consider what effect on society and the economy its having and its going to have. Look at the travel industry, its goosed. Genuinely, utterly goosed. Travel is the epicentre of much of what we do today, going to work, events, holidays, and so on. If the economy is a four legged chair, Social distancing has just sawn off one of the legs...

Society changes from Covid,
Think we will be going back to the ways of Pre-covid in a jiffy? Nope, that life has gone. We know know that we can work and do so in some instances, better, in a WFH enviroment ( manual labour, etc obv not). But knock out 30% of the workforce going to an office and what do you have? Swates of office blocks redundant, Motorways and roads clearing up and car sales, fule sales, lunch sales, (clothes?) sales, going through the floor. International/buisness travel is going to almost evaporate as clients and contractors now know they can for the most part, remote engage. which kills even more of the travel and tourism industry....
Less movement means less everything. Schools and Colleges must be looking at this and wondering how they are going to evolve. The 1st colleges to offer structured on-line centric education at a significantly reduced cost, are going to be the winners. The landlords of the student accoms the losers and as we move less, so the short term lets disappear. AirBNB industry will shrink, releasing much property back onto the market which has already ad aheart attack. Expect house prices to tank, which will knock on to the DIY/Building/Servicing industry as nobody will have any money... and so on and so forth.


Its massive. Absolutley gigantic. I have read opinion that this is going to be the biggest economic downturn in 300 years. "Biblical" as others have put it, and these are not from Doomer/Gloomers. These opinions are from normally sane comentators.

2008 was a bubble. It wasn't allowed to deflate back then and the underlying cancer of that era was never cut out. What was already dodgy ground has been built on again and again in the last 10 years.

Stock markets were nuts before the virus (Dow 30K?!!!) and they are still going nuts because those mechanisms have become utterly detached from reality.

Central banks have gone nuts. Negative interest rates? We are now going to punish the prudent to aid the profligate. We are building zombie companies, industries, economies.

We live in a world where its cheaper to have a mortgage than rent. How does a proper economy function like that? How on earth did we get to this?

Its a tower of Babel, and its all (or should do but we will see) going to come crashing down. Should have done in 2008 tbh.

In 6 months time? Its going to be very different....

Excellent post, sums up a lot of my own thoughts. A lot of people saying they can’t wait to get ‘back to normal’ later in the year are fooling themselves.

The amount of business closures and long term job losses because of this is absolutely frightening. Whole industries have been devastated almost overnight. Agree international travel is in serious trouble, I really don’t know how airlines are going to remain solvent.

seamus

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Most of the younger generations have been hiding under the wings of the older generations. Those older generations won't be around for long and they will now begin to pull from the economy as the pensions and old age care, etc kick in.

That's cute.

"I have to live with my parents because their generation has hoarded all the property and driven prices through the roof" in your world translates to, "I've been hiding under the wings of my parents".

Every older generation thinks younger generations are weak, entitled, sheltered and idealistic.

They've always been wrong. It's a very typical egocentric argument that one's own generation is uniquely capable of weathering storms and the next generation will collapse. "Biblical" is an appropriate word I've seen continually used on this thread; it's a fantastical myth with no basis in reality.

BoatMad

Nutty Nutritionist wrote: »

My suggestion was for people to begin to open their eyes and in that, I only mentioned one source of information. There is corruption everywhere, mainstream media, politics, medicine etc etc. It is however, really important right now that each of us question "everything" (including Judy Mikovits). I could give countless other examples that are worth questioning like:

• Taken directly from the Irish Examiner - Tony Holohan "Anyone presenting to hospital with Covid 19 who subsequently dies, regardless of the cause will be included to the mortality total, in line with WHO guidance".
• Suggested wearing masks - supermarket staff, Police, government - none of them wearing masks and none dropping like flies.
• The virus has moved from 2km to 5km radius.
• The hospitals are empty.
• Death rates are not up - undertakers are doing the same amount of work as the last couple of years.
• The beach must be riddled with the virus, so we are unable to go there.
• Many fake media photographs of coffins in Italy (duplicated from news articles in the past).
• No scientific proof that the masks prevent a virus.
• No scientific proof that "social" distancing works.

There are many sources and books.
Virus Mania - Book
Dr. Erickson and colleague who gave information from New York Hospital - bitchute (youtube removed).
Dr. Andrew Kaufman
Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg
Italian Leader Vittorio Sgarbi's youtube video

yes , I an constantly astounded by the fact that people are enthralled by teh fear mongering and actually overlooking the hard facts

The interesting study of RIP.ie data in " excess deaths " , shows that quite large swaths of the country have had more excess deaths in the 2017/2018 flu season then for covid

not to mention that indications are now that this virus was circulating for months , which has a major change on the infection rate calculations

teh whole thing has been hyped up , look at sweden or the netherlands, light touch lockdowns , there numbers arnt in the clouds . the USA is well behind ireland in deaths per million

Roger the cabin boy

seamus wrote: »

That's cute.

"I have to live with my parents because their generation has hoarded all the property and driven prices through the roof" in your world translates to, "I've been hiding under the wings of my parents".

Every older generation thinks younger generations are weak, entitled, sheltered and idealistic.

They've always been wrong. It's a very typical egocentric argument that one's own generation is uniquely capable of weathering storms and the next generation will collapse. "Biblical" is an appropriate word I've seen continually used on this thread; it's a fantastical myth with no basis in reality.

It isn't a matter of "if" the generations will survive, of course they will. It's "how" that's important and what you are seeing now with Covid is a direct consequence of that soft underbelly of the upcoming generations who don't like bad news and don't want to do the tough things required if they were to hear it.

In a more robust society, we would (should?) have had a far more adaptive and working solution to Covid, rather than the reactive panic that has been.
Instead of hiding under the bed until the bad man goes away, a more mature generation would have been out, preparing for the coming flood, doing the research, listening to all views and points.

But no, we ban the news we don't want to hear and hide in our homes. I'd say the generation that won the war must be horrified at what they are seeing.

Its pathetic.

We ban/or not, face masks, not because of any pro-anti science with them, but because the reality is that without an EILIA5 approach, the populus can't be trusted do more damage than good with them.
Same for Gloves, like, come on, really? we have to tell people why gloves and masks can be good or bad depending on how you use them?
We have lost that ability for critical thinking.

Its all a bit mad imho. Everything has an action and reaction and what you are seeing today is, i feel a consequence of that weakness we have nurtured.

keybordWarrior

Nutty Nutritionist wrote: »

My suggestion was for people to begin to open their eyes and in that, I only mentioned one source of information. There is corruption everywhere, mainstream media, politics, medicine etc etc. It is however, really important right now that each of us question "everything" (including Judy Mikovits). I could give countless other examples that are worth questioning like:

• Taken directly from the Irish Examiner - Tony Holohan "Anyone presenting to hospital with Covid 19 who subsequently dies, regardless of the cause will be included to the mortality total, in line with WHO guidance".
• Suggested wearing masks - supermarket staff, Police, government - none of them wearing masks and none dropping like flies.
• The virus has moved from 2km to 5km radius.
• The hospitals are empty.
• Death rates are not up - undertakers are doing the same amount of work as the last couple of years.
• The beach must be riddled with the virus, so we are unable to go there.
• Many fake media photographs of coffins in Italy (duplicated from news articles in the past).
• No scientific proof that the masks prevent a virus.
• No scientific proof that "social" distancing works.

There are many sources and books.
Virus Mania - Book
Dr. Erickson and colleague who gave information from New York Hospital - bitchute (youtube removed).
Dr. Andrew Kaufman
Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg
Italian Leader Vittorio Sgarbi's youtube video

The "proof" is the fact that the hospitals haven't been overwhelmed and the death rate hasn't skyrocketed as you said yourself.

BoatMad

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

...

But no, we ban the news we don't want to hear and hide in our homes. I'd say the generation that won the war must be horrified at what they are seeing.

Its pathetic.

We ban/or not, face masks, not because of any pro-anti science with them, but because the reality is that without an EILIA5 approach, the populus can't be trusted do more damage than good with them.
Same for Gloves, like, come on, really? we have to tell people why gloves and masks can be good or bad depending on how you use them?
We have lost that ability for critical thinking.

Its all a bit mad imho. Everything has an action and reaction and what you are seeing today is, i feel a consequence of that weakness we have nurtured.

The trouble is , people are driven by fear , not science , they will always listen to the doom monger and the 24 hours news cycle and SM amplify this message

Expert advice , goes over peoples heads and they counter expert advice with social media rumour and what " mary " said that Brigit heard ... etc

This is why you cant argue the science with people , especially when even the science isnt fixed and is a moving target

Much easier to appeal to peoples fear, Trump shows us how effective it is

Roger the cabin boy

BoatMad wrote: »

The trouble is , people are driven by fear , not science , they will always listen to the doom monger and the 24 hours news cycle and SM amplify this message

Expert advice , goes over peoples heads and they counter expert advice with social media rumour and what " mary " said that Brigit heard ... etc

This is why you cant argue the science with people , especially when even the science isnt fixed and is a moving target

Much easier to appeal to peoples fear, Trump shows us how effective it is

The media have much to answer for, that is for sure.

Snow Garden

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

Discussing problems in an honest and forthright manner isn't "Doom & Gloom"

Thats a narative which is half of our problems in the first place.

The people that shout 'doomers' when they hear forecasts they don't find palatable remind me of Bertie Ahern telling Morgan Kelly to commit suicide when he predicted houses prices would fall by 50% in 2006.

BoatMad

Snow Garden wrote: »

The people that shout 'doomers' when they hear forecasts they don't find palatable remind me of Bertie Ahern telling Morgan Kelly to commit suicide when he predicted houses prices would fall by 50% in 2006.

yes but house prices did fall, wheres the massive Covid deaths didn't materialise, even in countries with lackse responses

snotboogie

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

It isn't a matter of "if" the generations will survive, of course they will. It's "how" that's important and what you are seeing now with Covid is a direct consequence of that soft underbelly of the upcoming generations who don't like bad news and don't want to do the tough things required if they were to hear it.

In a more robust society, we would (should?) have had a far more adaptive and working solution to Covid, rather than the reactive panic that has been.
Instead of hiding under the bed until the bad man goes away, a more mature generation would have been out, preparing for the coming flood, doing the research, listening to all views and points.

But no, we ban the news we don't want to hear and hide in our homes. I'd say the generation that won the war must be horrified at what they are seeing.

Its pathetic.

We ban/or not, face masks, not because of any pro-anti science with them, but because the reality is that without an EILIA5 approach, the populus can't be trusted do more damage than good with them.
Same for Gloves, like, come on, really? we have to tell people why gloves and masks can be good or bad depending on how you use them?
We have lost that ability for critical thinking.

Its all a bit mad imho. Everything has an action and reaction and what you are seeing today is, i feel a consequence of that weakness we have nurtured.

Society is almost totally ran by Boomers though, with a handful of Gen Xers thrown in. These decisions were taken in large part by Boomers. Millennials have had no say at all.

BoatMad

snotboogie wrote: »

Society is almost totally ran by Boomers though, with a handful of Gen Xers thrown in. These decisions were taken in large part by Boomers. Millennials have had no say at all.

I dont think the response would be any different anyway

Roger the cabin boy

snotboogie wrote: »

Society is almost totally ran by Boomers though, with a handful of Gen Xers thrown in. These decisions were taken in large part by Boomers. Millennials have had no say at all.

Are you saying governments don't take any care or notice of the people they govern?

Roger the cabin boy

55% unemployed in the state atm.


55%.

More than half the working population.

AlmightyCushion

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

55% unemployed in the state atm.


55%.

More than half the working population.

It's 28.2% not 55%.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unemployment-rate-jumps-to-record-28-2-as-lockdown-bites-1.4248355

Roger the cabin boy

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It's 28.2% not 55%.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unemployment-rate-jumps-to-record-28-2-as-lockdown-bites-1.4248355

Well, statistics, etc, but if i may quote another poster somewhere else...

Broad Jobless Rate:

If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 52.8%

[1,244,211 (April 2020) + 51,433 (March 2020)/ 2,454,900 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2019]

Gavlor

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

55% unemployed in the state atm.


55%.

More than half the working population.

Except half of that figure are in employment, albeit temporarily aided by the state

GazzaL

Gavlor wrote: »

Except half of that figure are in employment, albeit temporarily aided by the state

55% of people are dependent on the State for their income. The only people happy with that are the socialist nutters who want the country to nationalise every business, even cafés.

Wanderer78

GazzaL wrote: »

55% of people are dependent on the State for their income. The only people happy with that are the socialist nutters who want the country to nationalise every business, even cafés.

thank god theres very few socialists around, and those that do exist, have little or no power, so relax