What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

wassie

Zenify wrote: »

...Amazon makes money directly from customers so would do better.

Contrary to popular belief, most of Amazon's operating profit is not made by its retail operation, but rather it's data centres cloud computing segment, Amazon Web Services.

Wanderer78

wassie wrote: »

Contrary to popular belief, most of Amazon's operating profit is not made by its retail operation, but rather it's data centres cloud computing segment, Amazon Web Services.

i have reason to believe its mainly from its rising asset prices, in particular its share price, and from avoiding taxes globally, apparently it makes little to no money from its delivery services

suicide_circus

McGiver wrote: »

It's a very positive move...this will push the integration further.

disagree.

Roger the cabin boy

Just wait until the tax increases and Covid19 levies kick in.

This years Budget is going to look awful.

ELM327

They have already said no income tax increase.
Middle Ireland cannot afford more taxes.

Widen the net.

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

All the large IT services companies are seeing a decreased demand from their large enterprise customers. Demand for software solutions and technical services will continue to decline until the end of year at least. Layoffs have already been announced or projected. IBM announced large layoffs today, believed to be in the 000s.

To say All is incorrect. For some, this will increase the pace of digital transformation..... switch to online sales..... increased demand for cloud services, increased demand for secure payment solutions.

Regarding IBM, i believe they announced intended redundancies back in early to mid March. Has something been announced recently? I would be interested as they recently contacted me about an open position.

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

To say All is incorrect. For some, this will increase the pace of digital transformation..... switch to online sales..... increased demand for cloud services, increased demand for secure payment solutions.

Regarding IBM, i believe they announced intended redundancies back in early to mid March. Has something been announced recently? I would be interested as they recently contacted me about an open position.

Google 'IBM layoffs'. Major redundancies announced across the globe. It looks like mainly Services.

HPE also announced significant job cuts and salary cuts.

It will be carnage when the Q2 results come out.

Roger the cabin boy

ELM327 wrote: »

They have already said no income tax increase.
Middle Ireland cannot afford more taxes.

Widen the net.

They did? Hmm.

Well, a levy isn't a tax is it? We have two of them, why not just chuck another on the fire...

Of course, there are ways of widening the net for people who actually have money.

*Increasing VAT
*Increasing Road tax
*Increasing housing tax
*Increasing PRSI
*Removing subsidies
*Increasing costs for government services.
*Water rates
*Wealth tax

Are any of those "income tax"?

The poor have no money to give and they won't tax the rich so its the middle who will get squeezed as always.

Of course, you can also adjust the boundaries of poor|working|middle|Rich
In effect, we all become poor.

UBI is going to be a thing soon as well

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

Google 'IBM layoffs'. Major redundancies announced across the globe. It looks like mainly Services.

HPE also announced significant job cuts and salary cuts.

It will be carnage when the Q2 results come out.

from what i read it will not be a net reduction in head count...... lay offs in some areas while recruiting on others.

definitely tough times ahead for some but opportunity for many others.

Roger the cabin boy

Snow Garden wrote: »

Google 'IBM layoffs'. Major redundancies announced across the globe. It looks like mainly Services.

HPE also announced significant job cuts and salary cuts.

It will be carnage when the Q2 results come out.

We are not far from full cloud programs and serviceability.

You will no longer need the latest nth-meter silicon chip to power your digital devices and lifestyle, you will just need good broadband and a viewer/receiver.

Google Stadia is a start in that direction. Who needs a PSX, just run the games online.

Apple know this. Its why they are dialing back on the Iphone development.
Its going to go full circle.

There will be growth and oportunity for those cloud companies, but for the large scale computer industries, its going to be carnage,

ELM327

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

They did? Hmm.

Well, a levy isn't a tax is it? We have two of them, why not just chuck another on the fire...

Of course, there are ways of widening the net for people who actually have money.

*Increasing VAT
*Increasing Road tax
*Increasing housing tax
*Increasing PRSI
*Removing subsidies
*Increasing costs for government services.
*Water rates
*Wealth tax

Are any of those "income tax"?

The poor have no money to give and they won't tax the rich so its the middle who will get squeezed as always.

Of course, you can also adjust the boundaries of poor|working|middle|Rich
In effect, we all become poor.

UBI is going to be a thing soon as well

LMAO
We have no money, but lets give everyone "free" money!

Kivaro

ELM327 wrote: »

They have already said no income tax increase.
Middle Ireland cannot afford more taxes.

Widen the net.

The fiscal watchdog authority said today that if the next government continues with the multi-billion euro spend on free houses for everyone, then income taxes will have to rise plus there would have to be a public sector wage freeze.
Widening the net would be a start, but we have to reign in these extremely expensive social programs that are costing the workers so much money that the country just cannot afford.

Of all the reports about austerity, tax increases, pay freezes etc. over the last number of weeks to counter the cost of the Covid economic collapse, there has not been one mention of reducing the ludicrously high social welfare payments that exist in Ireland compared to the rest of Europe. When a mother or a couple are financially better off being on the dole versus working and contributing to society, well then; there is something seriously wrong with the system and political establishment that allows that to happen.

Sierra Oscar

Significant moves at an EU level this week regarding economic recovery programmes.

EU unveils plan to borrow 750 billion euros to aid economic recovery

Grants and loans expected to be paid back by 2050, expect that debt to be rolled over way beyond that.

There will be some massive proposals coming down the tracks that will be extremely signifiant for Ireland too. There is a push on to introduce a common corporate tax rate as a concession to the countries pessimistic about using massive borrowing to deal with this crisis.

One thing is becoming fairly certain though - there is broadly uniform agreement that austerity cannot be used to tackle the economic crisis. Bad news for the doom merchants.

Wanderer78

ELM327 wrote: »

LMAO
We have no money, but lets give everyone "free" money!

creating money is easy, financial institutions do this all the time, in particular banks

ELM327

Kivaro wrote: »

The fiscal watchdog authority said today that if the next government continues with the multi-billion euro spend on free houses for everyone, then income taxes will have to rise plus there would have to be a public sector wage freeze.
Widening the net would be a start, but we have to reign in these extremely expensive social programs that are costing the workers so much money that the country just cannot afford.

Of all the reports about austerity, tax increases, pay freezes etc. over the last number of weeks to counter the cost of the Covid economic collapse, there has not been one mention of reducing the ludicrously high social welfare payments that exist in Ireland compared to the rest of Europe. When a mother or a couple are financially better off being on the dole versus working and contributing to society, well then; there is something seriously wrong with the system and political establishment that allows that to happen.

Yes I agree 110%

Wanderer78 wrote: »

creating money is easy, financial institutions do this all the time, in particular banks

Without creating debt, they cannot. Think of it like double entry book keeping. The bank can only credit money on one side by debiting the other.
How does any Irish bank create money to give a basic income to everyone?

Roger the cabin boy

ELM327 wrote: »

Yes I agree 110%



Without creating debt, they cannot. Think of it like double entry book keeping. The bank can only credit money on one side by debiting the other.
How does any Irish bank create money to give a basic income to everyone?

"Money" is not value or wealth, its only a token.
In the scenarios being discussed, the "Value" of these tokens is going to change.

If borrowing bucket loads of cash and then swishing it around the economy is the action taken for Covid, the reaction of that cash is not going to be insignificant.

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

from what i read it will not be a net reduction in head count...... lay offs in some areas while recruiting on others.

I am not sure how you came to that conclusion about IBM. They look like significant layoffs in USA, UK, Australia and even India.
Please post the links that suggest otherwise.
IBM employee numbers are only going 1 way since 2012. They have downsized by 80,000 since then.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/265007/number-of-employees-at-ibm-since-2000/

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am not sure how you came to that conclusion about IBM. They look like significant layoffs in USA, UK, Australia and even India.
Please post the links that suggest otherwise.
IBM employee numbers are only going 1 way since 2012. They have downsized by 80,000 since then.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/265007/number-of-employees-at-ibm-since-2000/

Primary focus in Ireland has been switching to cloud based service over the last few years. Revenues from cloud services have enjoyed double digit growth the last few years whilst service revenue has been declining.
Either way it’s unfortunate if people lose their jobs but opportunities for others.

McGiver

suicide_circus wrote: »

disagree.

You can. But it's happening.

McGiver

Kivaro wrote: »

The fiscal watchdog authority said today that if the next government continues with the multi-billion euro spend on free houses for everyone, then income taxes will have to rise plus there would have to be a public sector wage freeze.

Cliché....

Would be good if you quantified the impact.

Last time I checked the 2020 budget had expenditures of 71 billion. The whole Housing & Local Government chapter has got 2 billion, out of of that only a part is used for Social Housing. So we are talking 1% of budget or around that mark.

McGiver

ELM327 wrote: »

LMAO
We have no money, but lets give everyone "free" money!

You can implement universal basic income via negative income tax. Check Friedman on that. I'm on quite opposite part of the spectrum to him when it comes to the economics (I'd be on the same spot as him when it comes to liberty vs authority axis) but I wouldn't be against this concept.

RobbingBandit

What's gonna happen if shops are liable for rent bills and wage payment while they've been closed down, the restaurant industry is facing a crisis of redundancy from staff/workers, having to pay them huge lump-sum severance packages commercial retail landlords are expecting shops to honour their rental agreement during a government enforced lockdown shops will close like flies supermarkets garden centres and chemists will be all that's left until the cash for gold nonsense starts up again all the while the government keeps trying to set itself up covering themselves with the transition nonsense.

Retailers and businesses will close in the next few months without legislative protection and intervention.

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

Primary focus in Ireland has been switching to cloud based service over the last few years. Revenues from cloud services have enjoyed double digit growth the last few years whilst service revenue has been declining.
Either way it’s unfortunate if people lose their jobs but opportunities for others.

Yeah that does not explain your "will not be a net reduction" comment in reference to the IBM or HPE layoffs. They are obviously triggered by falling revenues since March. And I never mentioned Ireland.

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yeah that does not explain your "will not be a net reduction" comment in reference to the IBM or HPE layoffs. They are obviously triggered by falling revenues since March. And I never mentioned Ireland.

I never mentioned HPE. I was referring to Ireland.

Kivaro

McGiver wrote: »

Cliché....

Would be good if you quantified the impact.

Last time I checked the 2020 budget had expenditures of 71 billion. The whole Housing & Local Government chapter has got 2 billion, out of of that only a part is used for Social Housing. So we are talking 1% of budget or around that mark.

I'm sure that people on here understand that the social housing spend going forward does not depend on just one year's allocation of funding.
At the start of 2020: "Fine Gael’s social housing plan for Government will see 60,000 such homes built at a rate of 12,000 per year for the next five years. A total of €11.6 billion has been committed to that end up to 2027, €2.6 billion for 2020." Obviously, not all of the €11.6 billion will go social housing, but the cost of 60,000 homes will.

If the Greens are involved in the next government, they will demand an even greater spend on social housing. The fiscal watchdog said yesterday that increased income taxes and pay freezes will be required for this to happen.

stephenjmcd

Irish times:
"The Republic’s economy is on track to shrink by 12.4 per cent this year, marking the largest annual slump in its history, as the Covid-19 pandemic wreaks havoc on households, firms and government finances, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)."

And a separate article
"The Green Party is likely to agree that the next government should reduce the budget deficit in the second half of its term, following years of heavy borrowing to finance public investment in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis and what the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) on Thursday warns will be the biggest economic slump in Irish history."

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

I never mentioned HPE. I was referring to Ireland.

You are a slippery one. Explain your rationale for suggesting the global IBM layoffs are not a net reduction in Q2.

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

You are a slippery one. Explain your rationale for suggesting the global IBM layoffs are not a net reduction in Q2.

again, i am referring to ireland, not global

Snow Garden

Here is the original conversation.

Snow Garden wrote: »

All the large IT services companies are seeing a decreased demand from their large enterprise customers. Demand for software solutions and technical services will continue to decline until the end of year at least. Layoffs have already been announced or projected. IBM announced large layoffs today, believed to be in the 000s.

Hubertj wrote: »

Regarding IBM, i believe they announced intended redundancies back in early to mid March. Has something been announced recently? I would be interested as they recently contacted me about an open position.

Snow Garden wrote: »

Google 'IBM layoffs'. Major redundancies announced across the globe. It looks like mainly Services.

It will be carnage when the Q2 results come out.

Hubertj wrote: »

from what i read it will not be a net reduction in head count...... lay offs in some areas while recruiting on others.

definitely tough times ahead for some but opportunity for many others.

Sigh. Please show me the link for the bit in bold.

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

Here is the original conversation.










Sigh. Please show me the link for the bit in bold.

show me the link where IBM has announced redundancies in Ireland? How many roles are they advertising in Ireland at present?