What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

show me the link where IBM has announced redundancies in Ireland? How many roles are they advertising in Ireland at present?

I never mentioned Ireland. You didn't either until you started flapping. I mentioned 4 other countries. Forget it. I'll just put your 'net reduction' comment down to spoof.

Hubertj

Snow Garden wrote: »

I never mentioned Ireland. You didn't either until you started flapping. I mentioned 4 other countries. Forget it. I'll just put your 'net reduction' comment down to spoof.

apologies if offended you. You seem to be taking a disagreement very personally.
Perhaps take a break from the internet. You only seem interested in posting about doom and gloom when there is plenty to be thankful for in Ireland. Not a healthy way to live.

Snow Garden

Hubertj wrote: »

apologies if offended you. You seem to be taking a disagreement very personally.
Perhaps take a break from the internet. You only seem interested in posting about doom and gloom when there is plenty to be thankful for in Ireland. Not a healthy way to live.

I guess I just like the truth. Thanks for your advice.

McGiver

Kivaro wrote: »

I'm sure that people on here understand that the social housing spend going forward does not depend on just one year's allocation of funding.
At the start of 2020: "Fine Gael’s social housing plan for Government will see 60,000 such homes built at a rate of 12,000 per year for the next five years. A total of €11.6 billion has been committed to that end up to 2027, €2.6 billion for 2020." Obviously, not all of the €11.6 billion will go social housing, but the cost of 60,000 homes will.

If the Greens are involved in the next government, they will demand an even greater spend on social housing. The fiscal watchdog said yesterday that increased income taxes and pay freezes will be required for this to happen.

It's still 1-1.5% of the budget.

Remains a cliché. The financial impact is overblown.
Yes, it could be invested elsewhere but it's not a big deal.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASbDJZOQChM

Commentary from New York city while cycling to work from one small business owner. I'm sure many such business owners could relate, he seems to reckon that everyone will be recalculating based on their experience and that sky high commercial rents and local government rates will take a hit as more people who can work remotely figure they can have a better quality of life.

fr336

Here in the UK we have been put on notice that a major recession is on the way for us. i haven't seen the same pesimism coming out of Ireland or is it just assumed that things will be bad and just got to muddle on through? Clearly Ireland has dealt with the virus 100 times better than the UK and perhaps as a result will be able to get back to full business as usual far earlier and without the risk of more outbreaks or lockdowns compared to your foolish neighbours!

Jim_Hodge

Our economy was also on a firmer footing than the UK before this. The impact of Brexit will also pull the UK down and slow recovery.

Beasty

Threads merged

wassie

fr336 wrote: »

Here in the UK we have been put on notice that a major recession is on the way for us. i haven't seen the same pesimism coming out of Ireland or is it just assumed that things will be bad and just got to muddle on through? Clearly Ireland has dealt with the virus 100 times better than the UK and perhaps as a result will be able to get back to full business as usual far earlier and without the risk of more outbreaks or lockdowns compared to your foolish neighbours!

Sure mistakes were made, but the UK (or even most of Europe) is far more densely populated than Ireland, which makes it more difficult to manage.

And if the UK does suffers, Ireland will not escape pain given our huge trade with UK.

ELM327

fr336 wrote: »

Here in the UK we have been put on notice that a major recession is on the way for us. i haven't seen the same pesimism coming out of Ireland or is it just assumed that things will be bad and just got to muddle on through? Clearly Ireland has dealt with the virus 100 times better than the UK and perhaps as a result will be able to get back to full business as usual far earlier and without the risk of more outbreaks or lockdowns compared to your foolish neighbours!

In fairness, the poor handling of covid there and your vote for brexit led to that.


Our handling of covid has been much better.

The_Honeybadger

fr336 wrote: »

Here in the UK we have been put on notice that a major recession is on the way for us. i haven't seen the same pesimism coming out of Ireland or is it just assumed that things will be bad and just got to muddle on through? Clearly Ireland has dealt with the virus 100 times better than the UK and perhaps as a result will be able to get back to full business as usual far earlier and without the risk of more outbreaks or lockdowns compared to your foolish neighbours!

I think a major recession is inevitable in the UK and here also. Once the Covid payments and wage subsidies start getting withdrawn we will see the real carnage starting.

Retail and hospitality are in huge trouble, there will be tremendous permanent job losses and closures once these businesses return fully and realise that it’s not possible to trade successfully under these circumstances without subvention. Even people in more secure employment in other sectors are worried about kids going back to school part time and having to potentially give up work for a period of time. Consumer confidence will probably continue to erode until restrictions begin to fully lift and people have more certainty about where we are headed. There is not much to be hopeful about for the remainder of 2020 imo.

ELM327

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

I think a major recession is inevitable in the UK and here also. Once the Covid payments and wage subsidies start getting withdrawn we will see the real carnage starting.

Retail and hospitality are in huge trouble, there will be tremendous permanent job losses and closures once these businesses return fully and realise that it’s not possible to trade successfully under these circumstances without subvention. Even people in more secure employment in other sectors are worried about kids going back to school part time and having to potentially give up work for a period of time. Consumer confidence will probably continue to erode until restrictions begin to fully lift and people have more certainty about where we are headed. There is not much to be hopeful about for the remainder of 2020 imo.

This is the uncertainty for most of Europe too.
Once the schemes can be withdrawn, does consumer spending come back. It's like taking the stablizers off a bike, you never know if the child can stay on the bike or not before doing it

Wanderer78

ELM327 wrote:

This is the uncertainty for most of Europe too. Once the schemes can be withdrawn, does consumer spending come back. It's like taking the stablizers off a bike, you never know if the child can stay on the bike or not before doing it

Savings tend to increase in downturns so I expect spending to decrease as the dust settles, then we ll start realising how serious this is. I think it's gonna be a strange downturn, some industries seem to be doing okay, but some I think will be decimated. Governments and eu institutions are gonna have to pull something amazing outta the bag to deal with this one. I'm expecting our banking issues to resurface again as defaults and non performing loans increase, this could get scary

ELM327

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Savings tend to increase in downturns so I expect spending to decrease as the dust settles, then we ll start realising how serious this is. I think it's gonna be a strange downturn, some industries seem to be doing okay, but some I think will be decimated. Governments and eu institutions are gonna have to pull something amazing outta the bag to deal with this one. I'm expecting our banking issues to resurface again as defaults and non performing loans increase, this could get scary

There isnt the sub prime crisis like in '08-'09 though, most banks are adequately capitalized or better.




Some businesses are doing brilliantly out of this. My stock portfolio is at an all time high, driven by stocks in tech/fintech/auto that are at lifetime highs, coupled with purchases in airline sector that are at historic lows.


This crisis is a correction, it's putting 10-20 years of sectoral change into 6 months. Some companies will not survive. But my company is hiring and hiring many, along with other companies in the sector. I've just completed a round of interviews for a junior analyst and we got a lot of impressive candidates.

The_Honeybadger

ELM327 wrote: »

There isnt the sub prime crisis like in '08-'09 though, most banks are adequately capitalized or better.




Some businesses are doing brilliantly out of this. My stock portfolio is at an all time high, driven by stocks in tech/fintech/auto that are at lifetime highs, coupled with purchases in airline sector that are at historic lows.


This crisis is a correction, it's putting 10-20 years of sectoral change into 6 months. Some companies will not survive. But my company is hiring and hiring many, along with other companies in the sector. I've just completed a round of interviews for a junior analyst and we got a lot of impressive candidates.

Some sectors are doing well and will continue to do well but that won’t keep the entire economy afloat. Technology, pharma and engineering are flying among others.

Retail, hospitality, tourism and general services are probably among the worst hit and they are major employers. How quick they will bounce back is the question. I don’t see it as a correction necessarily, there will always be a place for the above sectors but they are in for huge disruption in the short to medium term, probably a lot of business closures with new ones taking their place when confidence begins to return.

Airlines is an interesting and very unfortunate one, they will undoubtedly bounce back but there will be insolvencies and restructures galore, the industry may never be the same.

Wanderer78

ELM327 wrote:

There isnt the sub prime crisis like in '08-'09 though, most banks are adequately capitalized or better.

Patience now, as others have said, this is probably gonna be a strange recovery, with some sectors doing okay, but others decimated. We also have to consider external factors that could effect this, Italy looks like it's in serious trouble, we may feel shock waves from them and others

An Ri rua

ELM327 wrote: »

There isnt the sub prime crisis like in '08-'09 though, most banks are adequately capitalized or better.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm


"As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions."

The Covid 19 pandemic is merely the pin that has pricked the debt bubble. I foresee a US banking crisis in Q3.

Iyob

i have a feeling that it's going to get better

nyarlothothep

I think there will be a global economic collapse this year or next, FED is printing infinite money, US deficit is beyond comprehension, everything is aligning for a full system collapse/loss of confidence which will in turn have disastrous effects for vassal states like Ireland, much like the last crisis. That's just my two cents.

Zenify

An Ri rua wrote: »

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm


"As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions."

The Covid 19 pandemic is merely the pin that has pricked the debt bubble. I foresee a US banking crisis in Q3.

Can someone explain this to me?

A bank needs a reserve to pay out if people come looking for their money?

It is now zero...? What was it before?

How will this cause a crises?

ELM327

Zenify wrote: »

Can someone explain this to me?

A bank needs a reserve to pay out if people come looking for their money?

It is now zero...? What was it before?

How will this cause a crises?

It could cause a run on the bank(s) in question forcing them to go bankrupt.
This happened to some banks in 08. The real problem though is sub prime debt, which, thankfully outside of car loans, we do not have so much of this time

Geuze

Zenify wrote: »

Can someone explain this to me?

A bank needs a reserve to pay out if people come looking for their money?

It is now zero...? What was it before?

How will this cause a crises?

A bank will obviously hold a prudent amount of liquid money assets, in order to meet the normal withdrawal demands from depositors.

The reserves referred to here are reserves that banks must hold with the central bank.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/html/index.en.html

An Ri rua

Geuze wrote: »

A bank will obviously hold a prudent amount of liquid money assets, in order to meet the normal withdrawal demands from depositors.

The reserves referred to here are reserves that banks must hold with the central bank.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/html/index.en.html

The ECB is not the Fed....

Hubertj

An Ri rua wrote: »

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm


"As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions."

The Covid 19 pandemic is merely the pin that has pricked the debt bubble. I foresee a US banking crisis in Q3.

Why would the fed do this as well as printing all that cash? Printing money wasn’t enough? Why? Or can you direct me to an idiots guide where I can start to read up?

Geuze

Hubertj wrote: »

Why would the fed do this as well as printing all that cash? Printing money wasn’t enough? Why? Or can you direct me to an idiots guide where I can start to read up?

Note that when central banks engage in QE, they don't actually "print" extra cash.

Better to say, they create extra money.

An Ri rua

Hubertj wrote: »

Why would the fed do this as well as printing all that cash? Printing money wasn’t enough? Why? Or can you direct me to an idiots guide where I can start to read up?

Try this. A good, balanced, mainstream source. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobhaber/2020/03/16/the-fed-fires-the-big-one/

Personally, as I'm a goldbug, I follow Kitco.com in the main.

www.zerohedge.com and Dailyreckoning.com are also interesting.

Honestly, the Forbes article above is all anyone needs. If anyone believes that they can keep creating extra dollar units and entering credit markets and buying up all form of instruments, they are deluded. This is keeping markets up and hence the seesaw rebounds. Similar happened to the markets in the great Crash of 1929. There are many similarities and many differences. The Fed influence into the 'real' economy now is unprecedented.

The dollar being the currency of the world, and we being beholden to MNCs, puts us in a precarious position no matter how ingenious our domestic government (whose hands are tied by ECB and EU rules anyway).

Interesting times ahead.

Wanderer78

An Ri rua wrote:

Personally, as I'm a goldbug, I follow

Rickards is interesting to follow and very intelligent, but he sure knows nothing about climate science!

Hubertj

An Ri rua wrote: »

Try this. A good, balanced, mainstream source. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobhaber/2020/03/16/the-fed-fires-the-big-one/

Personally, as I'm a goldbug, I follow Kitco.com in the main.

www.zerohedge.com and Dailyreckoning.com are also interesting.

Honestly, the Forbes article above is all anyone needs. If anyone believes that they can keep creating extra dollar units and entering credit markets and buying up all form of instruments, they are deluded. This is keeping markets up and hence the seesaw rebounds. Similar happened to the markets in the great Crash of 1929. There are many similarities and many differences. The Fed influence into the 'real' economy now is unprecedented.

The dollar being the currency of the world, and we being beholden to MNCs, puts us in a precarious position no matter how ingenious our domestic government (whose hands are tied by ECB and EU rules anyway).

Interesting times ahead.

gentleman, thank you sir

Snow Garden

An Ri rua wrote: »

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm


"As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions."

The Covid 19 pandemic is merely the pin that has pricked the debt bubble. I foresee a US banking crisis in Q3.

Would you advise people to move their pensions to lower risk funds? Away from equity/property etc?

An Ri rua

Snow Garden wrote: »

Would you advise people to move their pensions to lower risk funds? Away from equity/property etc?

I would be wary of giving advice to strangers other than to say that anyone expecting to cash in a pension in the short-term should be moving into a cash/low risk position. Equities are flying at the moment. Long-term, equities always do well. But one needs to stamp out risk as a pension comes due for drawdown.
The most important thing with pension funds investment is to dispense with management fees. Buy 7 bananas in Dunnes, go to the zoo, Covid withstanding, and ask the chimpanzees. They'll be less margin and just as accurate. Just buy the Dow or the market, not individual shares. Unless one knows the industry well and can read reports.
Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning is an ardent believer in the DOW/Gold ratio and trades on it.
I would err on the side of caution and take profits now if I had a pension invested in equities. But then, that's simplistic. Your portfolio could include airlines, Hertz etc. Not just Nasdaq. So you could be waiting for proper rebounds there. Looking at something like Hertz, which is bankrupt but the share price is increasing, shows one how nuts equities are right now and the effect of the Fed stimulus tsunami.
Some wise men say just buy what the Fed is buying. Short-term, you can't lose. Medium term, I think you will.

Personally, I'm heavily into gold via Bullion vault. highly liquid, yet you're buying allocated gold. I like it.