What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

ELM327

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I'd say a regionalised lockdown instead, no need to lock the entire country down again.

Depending on how it manifests, this could absolutely be an option.
Last time for instance, we could really have just locked down the GDA

alentejo

If there is a regional lock down, there are issues which will emerge.

Schools - If Dublin locked down for 4 weeks and the rest of the county kept schools open, Dublin students would be at a disadvantage - how would this imbalance be addressed?

ELM327

alentejo wrote: »

If there is a regional lock down, there are issues which will emerge.

Schools - If Dublin locked down for 4 weeks and the rest of the county kept schools open, Dublin students would be at a disadvantage - how would this imbalance be addressed?

I'd prefer that issue than deaths
Those students will be collateral damage of the "war effort"

markfinn

ELM327 wrote: »

Depending on how it manifests, this could absolutely be an option.
Last time for instance, we could really have just locked down the GDA

Think in terms of effects, not statements. How idiots will react to actions, rather than doing their part, and given the inability/unwillingness to enforce.

Shut down Greater Dublin and leave the rest of the country open = Overnight Mass Exodus from Dublin resulting in infection carried to every part of the country.

That's why we went with national rather than regional first time around.

Wanderer78

might be a cluster in kerry as we speak

ELM327

markfinn wrote: »

Think in terms of effects, not statements. How idiots will react to actions, rather than doing their part, and given the inability/unwillingness to enforce.

Shut down Greater Dublin and leave the rest of the country open = Overnight Mass Exodus from Dublin resulting in infection carried to every part of the country.

That's why we went with national rather than regional first time around.

Not if it was policed and people were not allowed on the road in the GDA.

markfinn

ELM327 wrote: »

Not if it was policed and people were not allowed on the road in the GDA.

Hence the note about "given the inability/unwillingness to enforce".

AGS seem to be going very "hands off" on the pandemic as a whole.

coolshannagh28

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Public debt has rarely caused issues, rising private debt has caused far more crashes and downturns, our government should be creating long term bonds to stimulate the economy, as the private sector will have limited capacity to expand for some time, very few house holds and private sector businesses will have the capacity to take on new debt.

Private debt expanded in the noughties to pay the taxes which financed the expansion of public salaries and spending , this bubble popped and the govt added 170 bn of debt approx 130 of which was to support the public sector.

Wanderer78

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Private debt expanded in the noughties to pay the taxes which financed the expansion of public salaries and spending , this bubble popped and the govt added 170 bn of debt approx 130 of which was to support the public sector.

private debt expanded as the global financial system was deregulated, which in turn flooded our economies with cheap credit, simply created by these financial institutions, which in turn caused rapid asset price inflation, most notable in the housing sector, and the rest is history.....

ELM327

markfinn wrote: »

Hence the note about "given the inability/unwillingness to enforce".

AGS seem to be going very "hands off" on the pandemic as a whole.

They enforced it at the start though.
There was a few weeks where I couldnt go the 15km to the nearest Tesco without a stop.

Geuze

Good to see a rebound in Industrial Production across the EU, up 12.4% over the month.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/11096023/4-14072020-AP-EN.pdf/dc899de9-ce8d-c114-ab06-2bfa1f4d5dd7

Hopefully the recession will last just three/six months.

But Industrial Production is still 20% below last year's levels.

BillyBiggs

Will there be any bars still in business?

Roger the cabin boy

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Will there be any bars still in business?

I am tempted to say "hopefully not"

Drinking culture needs to go in the bin imho and i would hope this is the perfect opportunity to put it there.

Wanderer78

Roger the cabin boy wrote:

Drinking culture needs to go in the bin imho and i would hope this is the perfect opportunity to put it there.

It ll always be there, we re hardwired for it

niallo27

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

I am tempted to say "hopefully not"

Drinking culture needs to go in the bin imho and i would hope this is the perfect opportunity to put it there.

What about the hundreds of thousands of people who just go for a few pints for a chat and watch the GAA or the football. Not everyone drinks to oblivion and closing pubs wont stop this, this will just drink at home.

is_that_so

Cheap money for the NTMA

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1283690275408355329

bb1234567

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

I am tempted to say "hopefully not"

Drinking culture needs to go in the bin imho and i would hope this is the perfect opportunity to put it there.

As long as people aren't drinking to the point they become violent or hurt themselves I really don't see the big deal.And these people are a very small minority. It is a social outlet for many people and many jobs rely on it, they bring life to many streets and squares of urban areas, and even if they do close nothing will change regards level of alcohol consumed, it will just be drank at home instead.

Diarmuid

is_that_so wrote: »

Cheap money for the NTMA

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1283690275408355329

5 month maturity. That's like putting it all on the credit card. Our kids and grand kids will curse us

is_that_so

Diarmuid wrote: »

5 month maturity. That's like putting it all on the credit card. Our kids and grand kids will curse us

We are doing it to help those kids and grandkids so they won't.

caveat emptor

Diarmuid wrote: »

5 month maturity. That's like putting it all on the credit card. Our kids and grand kids will curse us

I know it's hard to comprehend but the rate of this credit card is -0.5%.
That means we are getting paid to borrow money that we need today.
A credit card has a high positive interest rate.

What you should be wondering though is , "how come the government can borrow at a negative rate and we pay 3% for our mortgage.?"

That's the crazy fact.

is_that_so

caveat emptor wrote: »

I know it's hard to comprehend but the rate of this credit card is -0.5%.
That means we are getting paid to borrow money that we need today.
A credit card has a high positive interest rate.

What you should be wondering though is , "how come the government can borrow at a negative rate and we pay 3% for our mortgage.?"

That's the crazy fact.

Tracker mortgages is why! Great for those who have them but costly for banks.

Wanderer78

caveat emptor wrote: »

I know it's hard to comprehend but the rate of this credit card is -0.5%.
That means we are getting paid to borrow money that we need today.
A credit card has a high positive interest rate.

What you should be wondering though is , "how come the government can borrow at a negative rate and we pay 3% for our mortgage.?"

That's the crazy fact.

i think it might be a more worrying problem, i think problems maybe brewing again in our banks! hopefully im wrong

The_Brood

I must say internationally there has been an insane amount more money made available to donate to struggling business and keep jobs now than anything remotely close to the last financial crash. It seems that governments, Ireland included, have indeed engineered magical money trees in that time, or else I am missing something.

Ihavetheaids

We will all be on the streets eating and ****ing each other like a real life eyes wide shut

is_that_so

The_Brood wrote: »

I must say internationally there has been an insane amount more money made available to donate to struggling business and keep jobs now than anything remotely close to the last financial crash. It seems that governments, Ireland included, have indeed engineered magical money trees in that time, or else I am missing something.

It's what CBs can do but they don't like inflation. Now they don't care so whatever it takes.

Ihavetheaids

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Will there be any bars still in business?

I hope not , I hope all bars close and the owners are forced into poverty and destitution

Wanderer78

The_Brood wrote: »

I must say internationally there has been an insane amount more money made available to donate to struggling business and keep jobs now than anything remotely close to the last financial crash. It seems that governments, Ireland included, have indeed engineered magical money trees in that time, or else I am missing something.

money creation has always been a magical process, we just dont want to admit it, central banks can never run out of money, and private financial institutions can almost do them same, baring in mind, they create the majority of our money supply!

is_that_so

Ihavetheaids wrote: »

I hope not , I hope all bars close and the owners are forced into poverty and destitution

What a cheery poster!

Bigus

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

I am tempted to say "hopefully not"

Drinking culture needs to go in the bin imho and i would hope this is the perfect opportunity to put it there.

We’d end up like the Americans and need to hire a couple of thousand shrinks, pubs are great for mental health, maybe you should try talking to a few friends in a pub , but then again perhaps other people don’t find you overly engaging and enthralling and you don’t get the point.

Wanderer78

is_that_so wrote: »

It's what CBs can do but they don't like inflation. Now they don't care so whatever it takes.

theyve been trying to create inflation since the last crash, theyve been largely unsuccessful