What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

Spanish Eyes

Some will have a pent up demand to spend and buy. Nothing to spend it on now other than food and medicines really.

So when things settle hopefully, spending will recommence I hope.

Have to stay positive, although I know many are suffering through this also.

scwazrh

Is there any government assistance for small businesses affected ?

saabsaab

There may be a boost in local holidays might offset the foreign travel that will be lost. If extra money is released too soon as in 'helicopter money' it may not have a something to spend it on and create inflation.

scooby77

snotboogie wrote: »

Are we not staring into deflation? There has to be a huge decrease of money in circulation now?

IF the ECB "print" more money as a response there will technically be more money in circulation ( we mightn't see it but, it's there). Historically printing money as a solution has left to inflation. Of course the Euro is still a grand experiment, but my guess would be it'll cause more problems in some places than others.

leavingirl

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Very depressing and worrying.
Why has our National Broadcasting service imposed a news blackout on the implications that this lockdown will have on our economy? Nothing. No discussion.
Some mindless trivia about doing exercise on at the moment.......

Hello Elmer. They are the enemy. Good observation.

citysights

Massive economic fallout, high unemployment, lower living standards, did I hear a figure of 30 billion being mentioned as to what it will cost us. Oh yes and higher taxes probably for those still working. Hard to see any positivity, though maybe online businesses will take off and new ones can be started.

timmy_mallet

citysights wrote: »

Massive economic fallout, high unemployment, lower living standards, did I hear a figure of 30 billion being mentioned as to what it will cost us. Oh yes and higher taxes probably for those still working. Hard to see any positivity, though maybe online businesses will take off and new ones can be started.

Remember this is global. Its end of WW1 situation. High inflation, blame games, WWIII.

I mean, this needs to be said. We cannot prioritise a small minority of the population for this.

Baseball72

Powerful stuff. Thank you.

scwazrh

thebaz wrote: »

as we are all isolating hard to speak to many , but the few I have including myself have all no work now, small business closing everywher - Who is going to pay for this massive unemployment bill - totally depressing

For me , small businesses closing is my only concern. My family are all fit and young so not overly concerned about the health impact of the virus , however we all work for the family business and right now it’s stopped. We’ve enough to cover April’s bills but after that we’ll be done.
Why is the government not helping small businesses?

Wanderer78

Ffs, we re in a deflationary period, central banks have been printing a **** load of money since the last crash in the form of qe, and have been unable to create any inflation, only in asset markets, they're printing again, producing helicopter money will not cause hyper inflation, it might just save some businesses, just print the fcuking money

Xertz

One thing is it may have accelerated the end of a lot of bricks and mortar businesses that were fading away. I could see a lot of retailers not recovering and online retail replacing them. Some of the big U.K. names will likely vanish. It was going to happen anyway but I think we will now experience it as one short, sharp shock rather than a gentle decline and replacement.

I could see it taking a while for people to open their purses and start spending again too. We’ve only just gotten back to normal after 2008 (and I don’t mean Ireland alone in that. I can see a lot of people holding onto assets and not doing anything for a while.

Ireland’s not all that dependent on tourism, but it could take a long time for that to come back, but it may be cushioned by domestic demand by people who won’t want to go abroad for the next 12 months or so.

Aviation might take a few years to recover, although I suspect intra EU stuff will be back much more rapidly than long haul.

I think you’re going to see digital businesses, pharma, etc all doing well and some of those drive a lot of our GDP so it could well be a very different impact on more traditional businesses with a tech boom.

It’s all very unpredictable but we’ll probably know by August or so where things are going.

The one the EU has been pointing out is that it’s very important to keep jobs open and not just lay people off as that may make life very difficult when the economy does pick back up as the businesses could well be gone.

They’ve a big funding programme being rolled out to try and keep people in work short time and through subsidies to keep businesses alive and ready to roll.

leavingirl

scwazrh wrote: »

For me , small businesses closing is my only concern. My family are all fit and young so not overly concerned about the health impact of the virus , however we all work for the family business and right now it’s stopped. We’ve enough to cover April’s bills but after that we’ll be done.
Why is the government not helping small businesses?

Hey. I have some news for you. The Government doesn't give a sh1t about you or your family. They don't care about crashing the economy. Why not? Because you and your families money is gonna pay for their fat pensions for the rest of their lives! I'm sorry but your family business will probably fail.

But at least we are safe, eh?

Hey you know that the merry Leo has his eye on some top jobs over there in Brussels. He is being a good boy, doing as he is told. I heard he even knows some of the nightclubs over there already.

Wanderer78

leavingirl wrote: »

Hey. I have some news for you. The Government doesn't give a sh1t about you or your family. They don't care about crashing the economy. Why not? Because you and your families money is gonna pay for their fat pensions for the rest of their lives! I'm sorry but your family business will probably fail.

But at least we are safe, eh?

Hey you know that the merry Leo has his eye on some top jobs over there in Brussels. He is being a good boy, doing as he is told. I heard he even knows some of the nightclubs over there already.

most politicians are not evil people trying to fcuk over the little man, many do have flawed ideologies though, including the left(self confessed leftie)

Pa ElGrande

This has given a major boost to teleworking and many people have been forced by necessity to resolve their infrastructure problems whether that be docking stations, headsets, furniture, internet connection bandwidth and personal time management while at the same time managing home life. The facts gathered from this will not be lost on companies who will be studying productivity losses or gains versus the costs of renting and maintaining commercial premises. The results over the next few years may be companies realise the cost savings and productivity improvements and simply convert employees to independent contractors working from home.

This deflates the coffee shop bubble and many small business operators will not be able to return since they were marginal to begin with and their foreign staff have already left the country so those that return will need to hire and potentially train new employees and meet new regulations (distancing and hygiene).

The current economic situation is a government induced recession with the response largely dictated by the lack of capacity in the public hospital system to be able to absorb a surge in cases during the Winter months. The costs from this will need to be reviewed and reforms put in place and in the context of an ageing population and the controversy over the budget of the national children's hospital the question of competence of public health management arises. That will be just one aspect of the political fallout from this which will have an effect on the economics of health care in this country. Health insurance might not fare badly from this since the effect of all this induced inactivity is that other cases like elective surgeries are postponed and many people may evaluate their insurance coverage as they get older.

There is also the question of monetary reform arising from government budget deficits and bond market problems with Special Drawing Rights and baskets of currencies raising their head again.

Wanderer78

Wimbledon 2021 wrote: »

Eventually printing money destroys economies, it should not be used indefinitely.

agree and disagree, we currently have no options but to print money, its either that, or lots of people are gonna die from this virus and possibly from starvation

enricoh

scwazrh wrote: »

For me , small businesses closing is my only concern. My family are all fit and young so not overly concerned about the health impact of the virus , however we all work for the family business and right now it’s stopped. We’ve enough to cover April’s bills but after that we’ll be done.
Why is the government not helping small businesses?

Small businesses have been paid lip service by the last government, once the multinationals were throwing money at the government nothing else mattered. Still no word on rates afaik.
Crazy insurance payouts affecting your viability- sure thing we'll set up a committee to look into it, might even get them to do a report!
Too much red tape and regulations - here's a few more jobsworths out to justify their existence and their mileage.
I even got a letter last week from the council looking for the rates - all I could do is laugh, we operate in a parallel universe!

leavingirl

Wanderer78 wrote: »

most politicians are not evil people trying to fcuk over the little man, many do have flawed ideologies though, including the left(self confessed leftie)

Forgot about left and right. He asked why aren't the government helping small businesses? The guy is obviously sitting at home watching his small business slowly fail. This is absolute madness!!! People need to realise that the government DO NOT CARE. The best thing everyone can do now is to say F&CK THE GOVERNMENT, let's all go back to work.

No matter what happens we are starting an economic depression. If we don't act now the severity and the scale of the depression will be like nothing you have ever seen or heard about in real life.

Dorakman

leavingirl wrote: »

Forgot about left and right. He asked why aren't the government helping small businesses? The guy is obviously sitting at home watching his small business slowly fail. This is absolute madness!!! People need to realise that the government DO NOT CARE. The best thing everyone can do now is to say F&CK THE GOVERNMENT, let's all go back to work.

No matter what happens we are starting an economic depression. If we don't act now the severity and the scale of the depression will be like nothing you have ever seen or heard about in real life.

I’m assuming you’re being sarcastic?

leavingirl

Dorakman wrote: »

I’m assuming you’re being sarcastic?

No.

Dorakman

leavingirl wrote: »

No.

So your advice to everyone is go back to work, in the middle of a global pandemic?

Idbatterim

enricoh wrote: »

Small businesses have been paid lip service by the last government, once the multinationals were throwing money at the government nothing else mattered. Still no word on rates afaik.
Crazy insurance payouts affecting your viability- sure thing we'll set up a committee to look into it, might even get them to do a report!
Too much red tape and regulations - here's a few more jobsworths out to justify their existence and their mileage.
I even got a letter last week from the council looking for the rates - all I could do is laugh, we operate in a parallel universe!

Let the council collect the millions that their social housing tenants don’t bother paying !

Zenify

Wall Street Bank:

" sees three consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, with the economy shrinking 7 per cent on an annualised basis in the first three months of the year, 30 per cent in the second quarter and 1 per cent in the third.


Predicting the deepest recession on record "

Harry Palmr

Bartering and swaps could become part of the economy if this goes on long enough. People listing what they have to trade and what they need.

Wanderer78

leavingirl wrote:

Forgot about left and right. He asked why aren't the government helping small businesses? The guy is obviously sitting at home watching his small business slowly fail. This is absolute madness!!! People need to realise that the government DO NOT CARE. The best thing everyone can do now is to say F&CK THE GOVERNMENT, let's all go back to work.

If our governments enacted radical ideas such as helicopter money, some businesses might be saved, but since the EU is a radical idea free zone, it probably won't happen

leavingirl

Wanderer78 wrote: »

If our governments enacted radical ideas such as helicopter money, some businesses might be saved, but since the EU is a radical idea free zone, it probably won't happen

I understand your idea however the US tried similar stimulus packages back in September , the FED pumped endless amounts into the repo markets..

YFlyer

Just hearing that people on part time work that was left go are getting €350 a week. Crazy.

Wanderer78

leavingirl wrote:

I understand your idea however the US tried similar stimulus packages back in September , the FED pumped endless amounts into the repo markets..

Helicopter money goes directly into citizens bank accounts, bypassing the financial sector altogether, which I personally think just molestes money coming from central banks, eventually trickling down as our debts. I know the yanks are currently considering this, but I'm not aware if they've recently tried it, Hong Kong have, sounds like it's worked reasonably well

ricero

The housing market must be crippled

Snow Garden

Wanderer78 wrote: »

agree and disagree, we currently have no options but to print money, its either that, or lots of people are gonna die from this virus and possibly from starvation

Correct but inflation will bite us on the ass. Inflation like we haven't seen the likes of for decades.

Inflation was at 20% in the early 1980s. I think we will certainly top that.

The_Brood

Well this is the big question. With all these massive bailouts and payments for people who have lost their jobs...who will pay for all this? If taxes are raised/austerity measures are placed on the working poor/lower middle class, then what the ****. We shouldn't be the ones paying for all this.

Wanderer78

Snow Garden wrote: »

Correct but inflation will bite us on the ass. Inflation like we haven't seen the likes of for decades.

Inflation was at 20% in the early 1980s. I think we will certainly top that.

again, we re in a deflationary period, central banks have been trying to create inflation since the 2008 crash, after printing trillions, they have been unable to, i.e. situations such as hyper inflation are highly unlikely. central bank money is now being offered at negative rates, its effectively free money, yes the principle will need to be repaid, but we d be mad not to accept this money now

Wanderer78

The_Brood wrote: »

Well this is the big question. With all these massive bailouts and payments for people who have lost their jobs...who will pay for all this? If taxes are raised/austerity measures are placed on the working poor/lower middle class, then what the ****. We shouldn't be the ones paying for all this.

loans are at negative rates, its effectively free money, it ll be paid back by normal means by servicing our debts over a prolonged period

LuasSimon

Not sure where you get these inflation figures from , Central Banks are operating at negative interest rates. Many people have little income so there'll be no inflation if anything similar to the 2008 recession.

LuasSimon

Any chance the Super rich of countries with 3 and 4 billion in wealth each might donate 1/4 or a 1/3 of their wealth into a nations system to help out rather than trying to pay less tax in some other jurisdiction like Luxembourg, Switzerland or Malta.

Im sure they could manage away on 2 Billion rather than 3 Billion.

Wanderer78

LuasSimon wrote:

Any chance the Super rich of countries with 3 and 4 billion in wealth each might donate 1/4 or a 1/3 of their wealth into a nations system to help out rather than trying to pay less tax in some other jurisdiction like Luxembourg, Switzerland or Malta.

Hahaha yea right, this is where they make hay!

FVP3

LuasSimon wrote: »

Any chance the Super rich of countries with 3 and 4 billion in wealth each might donate 1/4 or a 1/3 of their wealth into a nations system to help out rather than trying to pay less tax in some other jurisdiction like Luxembourg, Switzerland or Malta.

Im sure they could manage away on 2 Billion rather than 3 Billion.

Bono could stop clapping and put his hand in his pocket alright.

To be fair he is far from the richest out there. Our billionaires, people whose wealth is clearly dubious, are not doing anything.

FVP3

Snow Garden wrote: »

Correct but inflation will bite us on the ass. Inflation like we haven't seen the likes of for decades.

Inflation was at 20% in the early 1980s. I think we will certainly top that.

Inflation in the past was caused by a number of issues but the strength of the unions played a part. Prices rose, and wages rose with them - sometimes this was actual wage laws and even the US had them. And so the cycle started to feed on itself.

Putting 1000 euros into the bank accounts of people won't cause inflation in an otherwise deflationary environment. It probably wont even increase the money supply that much for larger currencies, and the money supply in recessions contracts anyway as people pay back debts where they can, while fewer new loans ( which is the primary source of money) are issued.

Also in a recession factories, shops, hotels etc are not at full capacity and prices wont increase until they are hitting constraint limits.

arctictree

Lots of anecdotal reports out there now of prices rising in the Supermarkets over the last few weeks. Is this the inflation that's coming?

Wanderer78

arctictree wrote:

Lots of anecdotal reports out there now of prices rising in the Supermarkets over the last few weeks. Is this the inflation that's coming?

Probably not, possibly due to lack of supply and increase in demand, if true at all

FVP3

arctictree wrote: »

Lots of anecdotal reports out there now of prices rising in the Supermarkets over the last few weeks. Is this the inflation that's coming?

No, that is standard supply and demand.

citysights

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Bartering and swaps could become part of the economy if this goes on long enough. People listing what they have to trade and what they need.

I remember that from the last recession, websites to swop stuff, plus bartering trade.

saabsaab

FVP3 wrote: »

Inflation in the past was caused by a number of issues but the strength of the unions played a part. Prices rose, and wages rose with them - sometimes this was actual wage laws and even the US had them. And so the cycle started to feed on itself.

Putting 1000 euros into the bank accounts of people won't cause inflation in an otherwise deflationary environment. It probably wont even increase the money supply that much for larger currencies, and the money supply in recessions contracts anyway as people pay back debts where they can, while fewer new loans ( which is the primary source of money) are issued.

Also in a recession factories, shops, hotels etc are not at full capacity and prices wont increase until they are hitting constraint limits.

To perhaps re inflate the economy government vouchers could be given instead of cash. To be used in local businesses and spent within say 3 months.

Gael23

Austerity on an economy begging on its knees won’t end well

Wanderer78

Gael23 wrote: »

Austerity on an economy begging on its knees won’t end well

austerity never works, no matter what state the economy is, but particularly when its in the ****ter

saabsaab

Wanderer78 wrote: »

austerity never works, no matter what state the economy is, but particularly when its in the ****ter

Some would say it worked after the crash here but it should be better to pump money into a flagging economy in a downturn. However governments don't usually have reserve money to do it at that time.

Wanderer78

saabsaab wrote: »

Some would say it worked after the crash here but it should be better to pump money into a flagging economy in a downturn. However governments don't usually have reserve money to do it at that time.

plenty of research out there that it does far more harm than good, particularly during a downturn, it gutted our most critical public services such as our health system. governments, if allowed, have the capability to create money, our own central bank can do this, but theyve decided to allow it to the ecb

Gavlor

Wanderer78 wrote: »

austerity never works, no matter what state the economy is, but particularly when its in the ****ter

We finally agree on something!

patnor1011

FVP3 wrote: »

Inflation in the past was caused by a number of issues but the strength of the unions played a part. Prices rose, and wages rose with them - sometimes this was actual wage laws and even the US had them. And so the cycle started to feed on itself.

Putting 1000 euros into the bank accounts of people won't cause inflation in an otherwise deflationary environment. It probably wont even increase the money supply that much for larger currencies, and the money supply in recessions contracts anyway as people pay back debts where they can, while fewer new loans ( which is the primary source of money) are issued.

Also in a recession factories, shops, hotels etc are not at full capacity and prices wont increase until they are hitting constraint limits.

It is already happening. Putting 1k euros to everyone pocket just make more money chasing less stuff and that end up with not just inflation but hyperinflation.

Zenify

patnor1011 wrote: »

It is already happening. Putting 1k euros to everyone pocket just make more money chasing less stuff and that end up with not just inflation but hyperinflation.

I think it would be great to get inflation, the debts of our country would evaporate away. Unfortunately, it doesnt look likely. Look at history, economic shocks usually bring deflation.

All the big inputs: oil, copper, steel, coal are dropping massively in price.

People are not spending money. People are thinking about survival not Prada handbags.

Wanderer78

patnor1011 wrote:

It is already happening. Putting 1k euros to everyone pocket just make more money chasing less stuff and that end up with not just inflation but hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation would not occur due to the fact we re in a deflationary period, helicopter money may in fact just keep the economy ticking over, and businesses open. For example, the government bump in dole payments was a sign of what would happen if people were given extra money, it will increase spending, and keep households and businesses going