What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

Airyfairy12

This may sound a bit stupid but the money is still in the economy, it hasn't vanished it's just been spent within the economy it came from. I understand the governments funds will be low as they have been spending so much of it but it's mostly been going into services like health care and businesses. As most countries have been borrowing money, can they not just cancel the debt with eachother?

nthclare

If we got back the taxes from the multinationals which we are owed, we'd have a nice reserve.

But the government seem to be trying to not accept these billions in owed taxes.

If they're not careful maybe the EU will take the initiative and we'll see none of it.

I was told we're owed BILLIONS

Jinglejangle69

nthclare wrote: »

If we got back the taxes from the multinationals which we are owed, we'd have a nice reserve.

But the government seem to be trying to not accept these billions in owed taxes.

If they're not careful maybe the EU will take the initiative and we'll see none of it.

I was told we're owed BILLIONS

You need to start again in primary school.

Take it from there and see how it goes.

I'm not holding much hope to be honest.

Horsebox9000

Check out this understandable soul stone on his thoughts. Interesting

https://mobile.twitter.com/EllisWage

Airyfairy12

nthclare wrote: »

If we got back the taxes from the multinationals which we are owed, we'd have a nice reserve.

But the government seem to be trying to not accept these billions in owed taxes.

If they're not careful maybe the EU will take the initiative and we'll see none of it.

I was told we're owed BILLIONS

They clearly made some deal with multi international companies and likely signed something they cant back out of. The whole point of it was to create jobs in Dublin and help the economy.

Podge201

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

They clearly made some deal with multi international companies and likely signed something they cant back out of. The whole point of it was to create jobs in Dublin and help the economy.

There is more to the country than Dublin.

nthclare

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

You need to start again in primary school.

Take it from there and see how it goes.

I'm not holding much hope to be honest.

Oh wise one, please enthral me with your essence of ultimate wisdom and powerful intriguing insight.

Speak to me in word salad, preferably with halal sauce and sugar on top, with a dressing of vinegar, squeezed from the wizened grapes on the edge of a valley, south facing, on an offshore breeze, 3 minutes before the full moon on a sunshiny day.

Oh wise one I await your greatness, squeeze one out and I'll be awaiting your insightful note of excellence...

And I'll respond with humility and homage.
Oh wise one....

Speak to me..

nthclare

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

They clearly made some deal with multi international companies and likely signed something they cant back out of. The whole point of it was to create jobs in Dublin and help the economy.

Thanks, that's a good response because Im only getting informed through hearsay rather than facts on ink.
So I just threw it out there to see if anyone knows what all those taxes are about etc.

I like a good response in layman's terms rather than being told to go back to primary school and start from there.

Some posters here lack the ability to respond and use their reptilian brain rather than the limbic side of their grey matter.

Thanks for explaining that to me, I appreciate it.

Blazer

kravmaga wrote: »

You cant really be serious with that comment???

Dell Corporation badly burnt the workers in Limerick and went to a cheap labour industrial city of Lodz.

I've been to Poland a few times and the rate per hour of the locals in Lodz was half of what the workers in the plant in Raheen, Limerick earned. They have no union and the working conditions, terms and conditions are poor.

https://www.independent.ie/business/dells-limerick-closure-to-cause-9500-job-losses-26523346.html

You kinda neglected to mention that the Dell Łódź workers was earning higher than the average wage over there when it opened. Yes it was lower than here but still a good wage for the unskilled workers over there.
And poor conditions? You’re on drugs.

Horsebox9000

Podge201 wrote: »

There is more to the country than Dublin.

Understandable

Soul Stone broken

Airyfairy12

nthclare wrote: »

Thanks, that's a good response because Im only getting informed through hearsay rather than facts on ink.
So I just threw it out there to see if anyone knows what all those taxes are about etc.

I like a good response in layman's terms rather than being told to go back to primary school and start from there.

Some posters here lack the ability to respond and use their reptilian brain rather than the limbic side of their grey matter.

Thanks for explaining that to me, I appreciate it.

Well I don't *know they did, but from what ive read and what Leo Varadkar has said about the companies bringing jobs, im assuming. Cant see any other reason why they'd come here unless they were getting some serious tax breaks.

nthclare

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Well I don't *know they did, but from what ive read and what Leo Varadkar has said about the companies bringing jobs, im assuming. Cant see any other reason why they'd come here unless they were getting some serious tax breaks.

I was thinking that too, but after the dust settles a lot of these jobs are going to be suffering a huge clear out.
Especially the fluff jobs, a friend of mine has a fluff job and he's not afraid to admit it either.

He's a companies social network manager and puts up posts a few times a week on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram
Supposedly checking out the competition too.

So he basically has a job which a 14 year old can do, he laughs about it because its a handy number.

Puts up a few pictures and adds a few hash tags and he's good with clichés and words scrolls through the competition and takes notes.

And voila..

A lot of them are at that, nowadays a kid could do a better job than some so called professionals.

I work with plants and I know an 13 year old who is a master at grafting roses and apple trees, they have eyesight like a modern war drone and the precision is just perfect.

He'd put me to shame, he can do a gorchen style graft with a Swiss army knife and a secateurs..

Yurt2

A lot of people will be sitting at home sweating hoping that the scythe doesn't come for their fundamentally useless jobs.

For whatever reason, we allowed nonsense jobs proliferate in the modern service economy. If it wasn't obvious before, it will be very obvious soon

Maybe people who got shat on for years like retail workers will get a bit more respect in the post-covid world.

Nurses are the obvious one. Reading Twitter around the time nurses were threatening strike, you'd be forgiven for thinking that nurses had become categorised as some sort of sponger profession. Nasty stuff, and thankfully won't be repeated for a while as they won't have earned our respect, they'll have taken it by putting their health on the line keeping loved ones alive.

patnor1011

Summer2020 wrote: »

Nobody has a clue. Anyone who says they know is lying.

Some know. And it does not look good.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-suicide-germany-thomas-schaefer-hesse-finance-cdu-a9432621.html

patnor1011

kravmaga wrote: »

You cant really be serious with that comment???

Dell Corporation badly burnt the workers in Limerick and went to a cheap labour industrial city of Lodz.

I've been to Poland a few times and the rate per hour of the locals in Lodz was half of what the workers in the plant in Raheen, Limerick earned. They have no union and the working conditions, terms and conditions are poor.

https://www.independent.ie/business/dells-limerick-closure-to-cause-9500-job-losses-26523346.html

Cant really blame them. As you mentioned workers earned good money in Raheen. About a year before they relocated I had the honor to spend few months working there as I was between jobs and I hate sitting at home.
When I was leaving I told my co-workers that this factory will be shut down pretty soon and every one of them was laughing.
They had to close it down as it morphed in behemoth where about a third of people had nothing to do apart from just show up and clock in. People aimlesly walking around. Insane amount of supervisors and managers whose only job was to check if your grounding wire is attached and to look important in the process.

Dorakman

Yurt! wrote: »

A lot of people will be sitting at home sweating hoping that the scythe doesn't come for their fundamentally useless jobs.

For whatever reason, we allowed nonsense jobs proliferate in the modern service economy. If it wasn't obvious before, it will be very obvious soon

Maybe people who got shat on for years like retail workers will get a bit more respect in the post-covid world.

Nurses are the obvious one. Reading Twitter around the time nurses were threatening strike, you'd be forgiven for thinking that nurses had become categorised as some sort of sponger profession. Nasty stuff, and thankfully won't be repeated for a while as they won't have earned our respect, they'll have taken it by putting their health on the line keeping loved ones alive.

I don’t think anyone ever thought nursing was a sponger profession. Teaching on the other hand....

Humberto Salazar

MadYaker wrote: »

I think the government are going to give us all a wad of cash each to get it started again.

Which we will all have to pay back again. If the national debt before this was 200billion euro, it will be well over a 1000 billion euro after bill is tallied. Think of a figure and add about twelve zeros. The system will break, and have to be reset.

The J Stands for Jay

The One Doctor wrote: »

There's way too many pubs as it is.

Expect to see Wetherspoons come it and nab all the remains.

I hope to see them all later shut down as no-one will go there due to their treatment of employees

Yurt2

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Which we will all have to pay back again. If the national debt before this was 200billion euro, it will be well over a 1000 billion euro after bill is tallied. Think of a figure and add about twelve zeros. The system will break, and have to be reset.

The good news is that even core economies will have to go to the well and do this at the same time. In the GFC, you had core eurozone economies setting the agenda as they were in relatively better shape and were in a position to wag the finger at the likes of Portugal and Ireland despite them being part of the whole boondoggle themselves.

From Tokyo to DC to Beijing to Frankfurt and everywhere inbetween masses of new debt will be created all at once. Evreyone has their trousers down at the moment.

Xertz

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

This may sound a bit stupid but the money is still in the economy, it hasn't vanished it's just been spent within the economy it came from. I understand the governments funds will be low as they have been spending so much of it but it's mostly been going into services like health care and businesses. As most countries have been borrowing money, can they not just cancel the debt with eachother?

They’re not borrowing money from each other. They’re selling bonds on the financial markets.

893bet

People who use the word “reset the system” have **** all idea what that means other than saying it across Facebook.

Yurt2

893bet wrote: »

People who use the word “reset the system” have **** all idea what that means other than saying it across Facebook.

Well, we're in for a fun ride with the current system we've got that's for certain.

If the smartest guys in the room don't come up with something good in the next couple of months, we might well be in for a reset no matter how one feels about it.

Xertz

By a reset it would largely be a mixture of the ECB buying bonds and printing money, coupled with some other major fiscal tools at Eurozone level such as issuing Eurobonds, with limitations that they would be only spent on Coronavirus issues and stimulus and not for other issues.

They’re talking about a combined package of about €2.2 trillion, but the hold up has been countries like NL and Germany being very conservative.

They have some legitimate concerns in so far as they don’t want to be left holding the can for pre existing issues in Italy in particular, but the choices are fairly limited. We are all in this together and it’s going to impact the entire Eurozone.

We’ve the advantage of being in a big currency bloc and single market which means that the Euro is not going to lose value as much as a small currency when you see big scale quantitative easing as it’s a value reference in its own right, second only to the USD. Also the scale of the Eurozone internal market means that a lot of trade is not subject to any currency fluctuation.

Also the price of oil has absolutely plummeted - was dipping below $20 a barrel last night. That has fairly huge economic impact as it means the cost of energy and also many raw materials drops. So globally that’s an economic cushion, even if it’s potentially quite risky environmentally. It will give economies a signifiant bit of leeway and be of massive help to the airlines etc

Ireland could be in a bit of an unusual situation. Most of the big businesses here are fairly insulated from this. A lot of our GDP is from pharmaceutical companies, which may actually prosper, financial servies and high end consumer electronics makers like Apple, software and so on.

The issue will be domestic consumer focused industries, tourism, transport (airlines especially) and also agri food, although they’ll still have demand.

In general I think Ireland is probably in a better position than a country that is highly dependent on say the production of consumer products and fast moving consumer goods. Germany could be facing major issues with the car sector and the US economy could well tank quite badly, which has a major impact on some of our exports as does the U.K., especially for food and services.

It’s potentially going to be, a bit like Brexit risks, swings and roundabouts with some sectors being sheltered or even doing well out of this and others being badly hammered.

The only thing I would say is that because this is a genuinely global crisis, there will be global solutions and the big guns of economic policy will be rolled out. We happen to be part of one of the biggest - the Eurozone, so it could actually work out ok.

There are risks, but hopefully things will be handled pragmatically and resolved.

Overall I would expect a very significant recession until global markets recover, it may not necessarily a crash though as it’s more of a coordinated slow down.

I read a few people talking about it as “the economy has been put into an induced coma for its own protection.” The underlying infrastructure and so on is all unchanged, but the issue is how do you bring the patient back out of that induced coma, without any signifiant damage.

Yurt2

Xertz wrote: »

By a reset it would largely be a mixture of the ECB buying bonds and printing money, coupled with some other major fiscal tools at Eurozone level such as issuing Eurobonds, with limitations that they would be only spent on Coronavirus issues and stimulus and not for other issues.

They’re talking about a combined package of about €2.2 trillion, but the hold up has been countries like NL and Germany being very conservative.

They have some legitimate concerns in so far as they don’t want to be left holding the can for pre existing issues in Italy in particular, but the choices are fairly limited. We are all in this together and it’s going to impact the entire Eurozone.

We’ve the advantage of being in a big currency bloc and single market which means that the Euro is not going to lose value as much as a small currency when you see big scale quantitative easing as it’s a value reference in its own right, second only to the USD. Also the scale of the Eurozone internal market means that a lot of trade is not subject to any currency fluctuation.

Also the price of oil has absolutely plummeted - was dipping below $20 a barrel last night. That has fairly huge economic impact as it means the cost of energy and also many raw materials drops. So globally that’s an economic cushion, even if it’s potentially quite risky environmentally. It will give economies a signifiant bit of leeway and be of massive help to the airlines etc

It's the only way forward within current framework. Anything else puts the bloc at risk of crumbling.

Germany would do well to remember that to a large extent, other European economies carried the can for reunification. Eaten bread is soon forgotten.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/german-reunification-delayed-the-arrival-of-the-celtic-tiger-1.3635946

snotboogie

TuringBot47 wrote: »

That's a very good point.

Less people paying for monthly/annual bus/train passes.
So public transport might be less crowded, but less funded.

Traffic should be a bit lighter.

Impact on coffee shops/restaurants/delis around offices.

Less people in the pubs in city centre after work.

Maybe less need for creches as offices/IT companies embrace working from home at flexible work hours. Less need for the black market of minding kids while people are working/after school collection.

Conversely, people working from home will have more time and money to spend locally, effectively decentralising some spending.

It could also help rural life, allowing more people to work from home without needing to live within commuting distance of major cities. That could reduce rental pressures.

Yeah, this Corona crisis could really reset our ideas of work/lifestyle.

I've seen almost this exact scenario repeated over and over again but I don't see it as the positive that everyone else seems to to. The world retreating into their rural family home, hollowing out cities, killing small businesses, far less social time for the individual, really have to make the effort to meet people face to face outside of your family. As we've seen with rural Ireland already, people won't live in small towns, they'll want big houses and they'll shop in Aldi and will be restricted visiting pubs because of their non town locations and drink driving laws. The actual benefit to rural Ireland will be negligible, aside from a few more jobs in the local supermarket.

Annabella1

Can see big government reforms in legal profession
Sucking the life out of the country
Last few weeks shows how useful the lot of them are

nthclare

Id say that a lot of the tourism companies and sites will be dropping their prices at the doors.

The likes of Blarney Castle, Malahide Castle, Bunratty Castle and folk Park and Muckross in Killarney will be quite popular with the domestic market.

B&B's will be operating at lower rates and hotels will be offering family packages at affordable prices again.

As an example Surf camps and horse riding schools will be popular with kids and teenagers.
Because after all this people will want to be partaking in outdoor activities, being sick and tired of being house bound and all.

It'll be an interesting time that's for sure I don't think it'll be all bad.
For people who hadn't much to begin with will prosper better than anyone who lost it all in one foul swoop.

I feel sorry for those who had jobs in industries which have collectively collapsed, that's going to be a hard pill to swallow.
Friends of mine are taking it on the chin, they know already that the writings on the door for their employer, and Ceos in big companies will have their big salaries cut to the bone, because they will have to take more pain than the rest of the company.

So the guy who is on the production lines salary won't be far off his line leaders if not the same.

Shares in the likes of Dromoland Castle and other 5 star hotels will have plummeted and they'll be making big changes too.

It'll be like the late 60's again but we'll manage to get through it.
It won't be easy for people who were used to buying expensive clothes, cars and other luxury items that's for sure.

But what will make it easier is we're all going to be in the same boat, and we'll appreciate what we have and anything we work for will be more appreciated.

Laissez-faire is a useful quote in these times.

John Hutton

I'm saving to buy a house atm, original plan was to buy early next year, do we think there will be a significant dip in house prices?

nthclare

John Hutton wrote: »

I'm saving to buy a house atm, original plan was to buy early next year, do we think there will be a significant dip in house prices?

Absolutely for sure, if you think house prices were low in 2010, late 2020 is going to be a walk in the park.

There's going to be big changes and you my friend are going to be saving yourself a lot of money.

One of my mates she's a doctor and she bought a 3 bed holiday home in Liscannor during the last recession for 48,000 euros
The vendors couldn't afford the payments so they sold it off for half nothing.

John Hutton

nthclare wrote: »

Absolutely for sure, if you think house prices were low in 2010, late 2020 is going to be a walk in the park.

There's going to be big changes and you my friend are going to be saving yourself a lot of money.

One of my mates she's a doctor and she bought a 3 bed holiday home in Liscannor during the last recession for 48,000 euros
The vendors couldn't afford the payments so they sold it off for half nothing.

Silver lining and all that. Thankfully I'm a civil servant so my job should be ok... I was looking at a budget of approx 175 in the Drogheda and Balbriggan areas which would currently get me something old and pretty basic. Might be able to get something nicer if prices drop.

I know I sound very self interested talking about buying houses cheaper while people are sick but I am trying to focus on positive things once this is over