When and how will it end?

Puddin9999

have started reading diary of anne frank, its not too bad can anyone recommend any other good ones to read given the situation?

IAMAMORON

Puddin9999 wrote: »

have started reading diary of anne frank, its not too bad can anyone recommend any other good ones to read given the situation?

The Stand - Stephen King

marno21

faceman wrote: »

One thing I’m willing to put a ton of money on, scientists and pharma will break records in the development of a vaccine here. We are in unprecedented times so multiple labs are working on it around the world and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an acceleration of normal protocols. (China is already doing this)

There will no doubt be awards and fanfare for the folks to develope a vaccine so I imagine it’s a bit like the equivalent of the space race for the industry

Dr Fauci said last week that in the US they plan to take a gamble and begin mass production of a prospective vaccine before full scale testing is complete. In that instance, if the vaccine is successful they can hit the ground running and have large volumes ready to ship when trials are complete, and if the vaccine is a dud they just shelve the project and dump what's made. In the circumstances, it sounds like a worthwhile gamble.

GT89

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Whatever about the virus, news reports showing that Italy is heading into a state of unrest. Looters breaking into supermarkets as people are running out of food and money. Wouldnt be surprised if Italy comes out of this a poverty stricken country, theres even talks among people living there of a revolution. The UK will be next, they took so long to respond, first call of action was to create herd immunity and pretty much kill off the weak. Boris Johnson changed his tune but too little too late. Crazy times.

The South of Italy could already be described as poverty. Look at places like Naples for example the place is absolutely filthy with people living in some precarious situations.

marno21

snoopboggybog wrote: »

Restaurants, Hotels and Bars are going to be hit badly and can't see a lot of them recovering to be honest.

I would argue the opposite.

There's a significant volume of people in this country getting full pay (working from home/teachers/emergency workers etc.) and an almost total shutdown of discretionary spending. I am open to cases of increased expenses during this crisis but I can't think of many. In that case, lots of people are going to be saving money and will be unleashing it when the pubs/restaurants/bars reopen. Besides fixed costs and food etc, it's quite difficult to spend spare cash at the minute.

Secondly, air travel is not going to recover fully immediately after the reopening. Quite a lot of people will have to holiday on this island for some time after the reopening and many hotels around the country may see a boost to business. See also point 1 with quite a lot of people having money saved up.

Irish_rat

Puddin9999 wrote: »

have started reading diary of anne frank, its not too bad can anyone recommend any other good ones to read given the situation?

Stasiland - Anna Funder

threeball

marno21 wrote: »

Dr Fauci said last week that in the US they plan to take a gamble and begin mass production of a prospective vaccine before full scale testing is complete. In that instance, if the vaccine is successful they can hit the ground running and have large volumes ready to ship when trials are complete, and if the vaccine is a dud they just shelve the project and dump what's made. In the circumstances, it sounds like a worthwhile gamble.

Are you willing to take a vaccine that was rushed to market and have it injected into your body?

iguana

marno21 wrote: »

I am open to cases of increased expenses during this crisis but I can't think of many.

Heating would be the biggest one. It's quite chilly so I have the heating on for several extra hours a day. I'm also using more electricity and I've paid for some online entertainment services, like Disney+ that I mightn't have bothered with otherwise.

But other than that I'm spending a lot less money than normal. On the other hand whenever my son gets sad about stuff he's missing out on, I get him to add it to the list of things we'll do as soon as we're able to again. We'll be itching to do all the stuff we're missing and to do some of the stuff we always planned on doing in a 'some day' kind of way. I also have my own little list of places I want to support because they made responsible decisions for public safety ahead of profit before they were ordered to.

CucaFace

marno21 wrote: »

I would argue the opposite.

There's a significant volume of people in this country getting full pay (working from home/teachers/emergency workers etc.) and an almost total shutdown of discretionary spending. I am open to cases of increased expenses during this crisis but I can't think of many. In that case, lots of people are going to be saving money and will be unleashing it when the pubs/restaurants/bars reopen. Besides fixed costs and food etc, it's quite difficult to spend spare cash at the minute.

Secondly, air travel is not going to recover fully immediately after the reopening. Quite a lot of people will have to holiday on this island for some time after the reopening and many hotels around the country may see a boost to business. See also point 1 with quite a lot of people having money saved up.

I agree with you partially, but i feel the issue will be that we need tourists coming here from outside the country also for the bars/restaurants and hotels to bounce back. Dublin has been set up for the many 1000's of tourists who come here from all over the world each week. Having a messed up air travel industry will greatly effect the ability to bounce back and i don't think our own population going mad for a few weeks will make up for this. I don't think we have the numbers to do that.

kippy

marno21 wrote: »

I would argue the opposite.

There's a significant volume of people in this country getting full pay (working from home/teachers/emergency workers etc.) and an almost total shutdown of discretionary spending. I am open to cases of increased expenses during this crisis but I can't think of many. In that case, lots of people are going to be saving money and will be unleashing it when the pubs/restaurants/bars reopen. Besides fixed costs and food etc, it's quite difficult to spend spare cash at the minute.

Secondly, air travel is not going to recover fully immediately after the reopening. Quite a lot of people will have to holiday on this island for some time after the reopening and many hotels around the country may see a boost to business. See also point 1 with quite a lot of people having money saved up.

A lot of those you mention on full pay are in for massive cuts once things start to unwind. The country is going to be back to recession, worse than last time. It will be a completely changed landscape.

marno21

threeball wrote: »

Are you willing to take a vaccine that was rushed to market and have it injected into your body?

I'm in my early 20s and have no underlying conditions so I don't think I deserve access to a vaccine when there are far more deserving people who might need it. If I was in my 80s with underlying conditions and at risk from the virus I might be more inclined to take a risk.

What I was alluding to is that in the US they plan to start mass production of the vaccine while trials are ongoing, which gives them the advantage of being able to roll out the vaccine rapidly if it's successful. Under normal circumstances, the vaccine would go into mass production when the trials are complete, however the authorities have decided that the gamble of mass production of a potentially non-viable vaccine is worth taking. It's not rushing it to market, it's just manufacturing and trialling it at the same time rather than doing those steps in sequence. Should the vaccine not prove successful, it won't be rolled out and the produced vaccine will be scrapped. Time is the scarce resource here, not money.

seenitall

Puddin9999 wrote: »

have started reading diary of anne frank, its not too bad can anyone recommend any other good ones to read given the situation?

The Plague by Albert Camus

The Horseman on the Roof by Jean Giono

marno21

iguana wrote: »

Heating would be the biggest one. It's quite chilly so I have the heating on for several extra hours a day. I'm also using more electricity and I've paid for some online entertainment services, like Disney+ that I mightn't have bothered with otherwise.

Heating is true, however for many people with oil fired heating the price of kerosene has hit the floor and people are getting deliveries at prices not seen for years. On the plus side, the weather is getting warmer too and with the longer days the heating won't be required as much, however people are at home 24/7 now too to balance that out.

iguana wrote: »

But other than that I'm spending a lot less money than normal. On the other hand whenever my son gets sad about stuff he's missing out on, I get him to add it to the list of things we'll do as soon as we're able to again. We'll be itching to do all the stuff we're missing and to do some of the stuff we always planned on doing in a 'some day' kind of way. I also have my own little list of places I want to support because they made responsible decisions for public safety ahead of profit before they were ordered to.

Exactly that. Lots of people in the same boat will be ready to unleash those savings when things start loosening. I can't see many people wanting to stay at home and save money when things return to normal.

RandomViewer

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The Stand - Stephen King

It's dated and ends very poorly, " It " or " Salems Lot " although not virus related would be better King books, avoid anything he wrote in the last 15 years ,writing by numbers

RandomViewer

RandomViewer wrote: »

It's dated and ends very poorly, " It " or " Salems Lot " although not virus related would be better King books, avoid anything he wrote in the last 15 years ,writing by numbers

Dark tower books are worth a look. I quite enjoyed them.

Cake Man

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The Stand - Stephen King

I actually started reading this a few months ago before all this virus outbreak began coincidentally! I stopped after a few chapters as it was a fairly slow burner and found it hard to keep an interest tbh but I've been meaning to get back to it. Given what I think it is about, it may not be for the best though!

_Kaiser_

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That is going to be some almighty session

I have huge sympathy for anyone who works in a pub and has lost their job or on the verge of it as a result of all this.

But the absolute last thing I'm worried about at the moment is being able to go on a session when it's finally clear to do so. We really need to get over the pub and drink culture as the centre of our social lives in this country.

I like a pint sure, but the obsession with the pub is a habit we could well do with breaking in the future.

Charles Babbage

marno21 wrote: »

Dr Fauci said last week that in the US they plan to take a gamble and begin mass production of a prospective vaccine before full scale testing is complete. In that instance, if the vaccine is successful they can hit the ground running and have large volumes ready to ship when trials are complete, and if the vaccine is a dud they just shelve the project and dump what's made. In the circumstances, it sounds like a worthwhile gamble.

Also testing might show that the vaccine wasn't suitable for some people, say pregnant women, but it could prove suitable for many people.

Cake Man

Cake Man wrote: »

I actually started reading this a few months ago before all this virus outbreak began coincidentally! I stopped after a few chapters as it was a fairly slow burner and found it hard to keep an interest tbh but I've been meaning to get back to it. Given what I think it is about, it may not be for the best though!

Read it. Excellent book. I know many people don't like it, but... it's worth getting through. Moon! King does interesting character arcs.

Cake Man

marno21 wrote: »

I would argue the opposite.

There's a significant volume of people in this country getting full pay (working from home/teachers/emergency workers etc.) and an almost total shutdown of discretionary spending. I am open to cases of increased expenses during this crisis but I can't think of many. In that case, lots of people are going to be saving money and will be unleashing it when the pubs/restaurants/bars reopen. Besides fixed costs and food etc, it's quite difficult to spend spare cash at the minute.

Secondly, air travel is not going to recover fully immediately after the reopening. Quite a lot of people will have to holiday on this island for some time after the reopening and many hotels around the country may see a boost to business. See also point 1 with quite a lot of people having money saved up.

That's a good point, I have definitely noticed I'm barely spending anything apart from the basics like food and rent.
I said to a friend the other day that gyms and anything fitness/exercise related will also experience a spike. Right now, anyone working in those areas are suffering but with people stuck indoors and eating/drinking out of boredom there's going to be many pounds put on across the country/world. It'll be like the first week of January for the new years resolutioners x 100 when the health and fitness industry gets back up and running again.

_Kaiser_

To be honest, part of me actually wants to get this damn thing so I can hopefully get over it and move on.

This living in hiding from an invisible threat you can't do much against anyway is almost worse (I've been at it 3 weeks now because my little lad's mam and her parents would be in the risky categories)

As for what will happen in the end. I have seen posters suggesting that this will be some sort of global awakening to the flaws and bad priorities of our economic system and cultures, as if from the end of a Hollywood disaster movie.

I think the more accurate reality is things will go back to "normal" very quickly once this virus is defeated or at least sufficiently contained.

And that's sad really, but money and consumerism is what we've built the Western world on. It's not likely to change anytime soon.

RandomViewer

Deleted User wrote: »

Read it. Excellent book. I know many people don't like it, but... it's worth getting through. Moon! King does interesting character arcs.

John Connolly's Charlie Parker books are pretty good ,

Puddin9999

was wondering about the impact the 'lock down' is having in other countries like italy and spain for example, while it seems like the right thigh, are we too late as they seem to have been in the same position a few weeks ago and we are now following the same measures, I am convinced this epidemic will run its course and there will be little impact on mitigating the same outcome, while tying not to be pessimistic i feel the outcome is inevitable... but we guess we must try

RandomViewer

Puddin9999 wrote: »

was wondering about the impact the 'lock down' is having in other countries like italy and spain for example, while it seems like the right thigh, are we too late as they seem to have been in the same position a few weeks ago and we are now following the same measures, I am convinced this epidemic will run its course and there will be little impact on mitigating the same outcome, while tying not to be pessimistic i feel the outcome is inevitable... but we guess we must try

While the outcomes may be similar trying to flatten the curve makes sense, a slow increase allowing the health system to cope and those in need to receive equal treatment, Italy are having to choose who gets a ventilator,we don't want our healthcare providers in that position

marno21

kippy wrote: »

A lot of those you mention on full pay are in for massive cuts once things start to unwind. The country is going to be back to recession, worse than last time. It will be a completely changed landscape.

We tried years of cuts in many western countries over the previous number of years and it didn't work.

As I said in the Infrastructure forum earlier, more cuts effectively hands the keys of the country to Sinn Fein and co, and other extremist/populist parties in the western world.

Austerity and cuts will not solve the coming recession, which will be completely different to 2008. Firstly, there are no systemic economic issues causing the recession, the pandemic caused the recession, it wasn't an economic cause to trigger it. Secondly, in Ireland anyway, the banks are in much better shape and aren't at risk of going to the wall. Thirdly, most jobs lost so far are more furloughed than lost and many will be rehired immediately when their roles become viable again. It's not as if the pub industry was unsustainable, there's been a temporary Government ban on its operation.

There are very few parallels between 2008 and now in terms of the coming recession, in Ireland at least.

careless sherpa

I think we will hear about flattening the curve and look at exponential graphs until our eyes and ears bleed

lalababa

Italy's first death was Feb 21st, Ireland's was March 11th. That's 19days difference.
Ireland March 29th- 46 dead
Italy March 1st/2nd-46 dead.........is 27 days.
So I'd say June the 11th just after tea time.

darjeeling

This virus is now spreading on all continents and is not going to be eradicated.
This means we will ultimately depend on herd immunity for protection, whether that comes early through many people being infected during the current epidemic, or perhaps late next year with a vaccine.

We can expect a lot of transformative technical developments in the coming weeks and months. Some are becoming apparent already.
Projections based on the state of healthcare systems at the beginning of the pandemic will look increasingly out of date as these developments occur.

There are perhaps two approaches that will allow a lesser or greater return to relative normality.

One approach is to keep suppressing the epidemic while waiting for a vaccine.
This means greater retention of restrictions while relying heavily on testing to identify and isolate cases, then identify, test and isolate infected contacts.
This is what Singapore, Taiwan and Iceland are doing.

This approach will need mass testing using existing PCR tests for active virus (aka 'antigen' tests), with fast turnaround to inform people of their status early.
This is essential because people become infectious a day or so before developing symptoms, and some are essentially asymptomatic.

Antibody tests will be of limited use in identifying new cases because antibodies only appear days after people have become infectious (~50% +ve after 7 days, ~100% after 14+ days).

The ongoing suppression approach will also need a small army of contact tracers, and smart ways of identifying contacts, probably using smartphone apps like those used in China and S Korea.


An alternative approach is to relax restrictions to a greater degree to allow the epidemic to run its natural course while doing a much better job of protecting the most vulnerable.
The aim would be to allow herd immunity to develop through infection of people who are very unlikely to have adverse outcomes.

This would require better, faster testing for care & medical workers in contact with vulnerable people, more equipment for treating patients requiring oxygen, and appropriate PPE for all care & medical workers.

Additional ventilators are already being built, and more will be, potentially using simplified designs.
This will mean more of the most severe cases can be treated in ICU, assuming sufficient medical staff.
Modified CPAP machines will allow treatment of patients requiring positive pressure O2 without the need for sedation and hence ICU beds, reducing demands on medical staff.
CPAP machines have been used effectively in Lombardy, and modified designs now being trialled in the UK.

These developments will reduce the 'excess' mortality arising when demand exceeds available health service resources and patients do not get the optimal care for their needs.

Rapid turnaround testing of home help workers, care home workers and hospital workers will be needed to stop anyone infected from having contact with vulnerable patients.
Small-scale fast turnaround tests already exist, and should be targeted to these front-line workers.
Antibody tests will help to reveal which healthcare workers have already been exposed to the disease and are no longer at risk of contracting it, but antigen tests will still be the main tool.
PPE will aLso be needed for all of these workers, as appropriate for their level of exposure.

Some antiviral drugs may yet turn out to be beneficial.
Favapiravir is already recommended in the Chinese treatment guidelines, and remdesivir and some of the HIV protease inhibitors may also turn out to be beneficial.
If any are truly useful, we will need to find ways to get them rapidly to the patients likely to be in greatest need because they work best when used early.


The eagerly awaited antibody tests should prove very useful is showing how far the epidemic has progressed already.
Data from countries with more testing are already giving a clearer picture of the fatality rate, which is (when health systems are not overrun) looking to be under 1%.
If it turns out that the fatality rate is indeed much lower than the worst projections, that may push us into favouring the second approach - more relaxation of restrictions and build-up of herd immunity.

iguana

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

To be honest, part of me actually wants to get this damn thing so I can hopefully get over it and move on.

This living in hiding from an invisible threat you can't do much against anyway is almost worse (I've been at it 3 weeks now because my little lad's mam and her parents would be in the risky categories)

The problem is, if you get it you almost certainly won't get a test so won't know for sure if you had it. I'm almost certain I'm recovering from it now but because I don't have a confirmed close contact or an underlying condition, I couldn't get tested.

It's actually a really odd position to be in because by the end of the week I'll probably be free to start going out again and I'm just really not worried about the virus anymore. I can't be 100% sure that I had it, so could still be at risk of it, but I really don't know quite how to make myself act like I had done before I got sick. Tbf, I'm having a mix of that elated feeling you get when you recover after an illness and giddiness from oxygen as my levels return to normal. So I guess I can force myself to be cautious when I'm back out in the world but it's just a massive pita to most likely be immune now but not know for sure.

IAMAMORON

lalababa wrote: »

Italy's first death was Feb 21st, Ireland's was March 11th. That's 19days difference.
Ireland March 29th- 46 dead
Italy March 1st/2nd-46 dead.........is 27 days.
So I'd say June the 11th just after tea time.

I get the impression that we are lucky insofar as we saw this coming. I cannot see us going there. Although our next worry is when to let people out of their cages again.

The poor people of northern Italy did not see it coming at all:mad: RIP.

I don't think we are going to get as bad as Italy. But until China start getting real with their figures we won't know. I was giving them the benefit of the doubt for weeks, but now it is obvious from what has happened in Italy, Spain and elsewhere that they are not telling the world the full picture. Considering they are top table in the UN it is disgusting.