When and how will it end?

joseywhales

I think a national day of mourning for the people lost during the crisis would be a nice way to beging to come back from this.

faceman

Interested in hearing people's theories on how Ireland will fare in this and what the end game is.

It feels that government strategy is zero cases and everything else is secondary.

But what happens next?

Prof Jack Lambert estimates the virus will be with us for 3 years. Can Ireland continue its current strategy for 3 years?

Personally I believe the nation is being run in to the ground, not intentionally but the road to hell is paved with good intention and all that.

There is no transparency with things like travel, tourism, pubs, schools and other industries which are currently curtailed or dead as a result of the current approach. If the current strategy continues in to the winter, some industries and businesses will reach the point of no return

Some other countries have a higher risk tolerance and have opened businesses/industries with caution and in a staggered fashion. However Ireland seems to be all or nothing. Our death rate is flattened to near eliminated.

We dont get transparency with daily figure reporting and there doesn't seem to be any strategy for handling outbreaks other than brand the nation with the same brush, scaremongering and the same rhetoric.

Economically I dont see a recovery from this for Ireland for at least 10 years.

How do you think this will end up?

sabat

Mass suicides or revolution.

tromtipp

Or maybe with mask wearing being enforced. Whichever.

RebelButtMunch

Vaccine and / or herd immunity

NIMAN

Maybe we are being more cautious than some other countries, but Ireland will be no different than the rest of the world. Other countries economies will be ruined for many years to come, we aren't alone in this mess.

I think many like to pick on the country and say we are doing it wrong, but just watch the news about the US, the UK of late, Australia etc and you'd have to say they are managing it a lot worse than us. Yes they may be opening up quicker than us, but their rates are bad compared to us.

Drumpot

If most people who don’t go abroad holiday in Ireland , tourism will be fine.

Schools will sort themselves out eventually when the powers that be actually communicate a plan and alternative areangements. I really hope they have contingency plans and aren’t banking on opening/closing schools as their master plan.

Pubs are not important for the survival of the economy, sounds harsh but it’s just a fact. That said, I know some that have adapted really well, so the ones that don’t adapt are more likely to die out. It’s Remarkable how animated people get about the Pub.

You’d swear we were years dealing with this virus. Over the last 4 months everything we know and take for granted has been turned on its head. Most countries are struggling to find a balance. It’s going to take time for us to figure this out, that’s what I have taken the overall lockdown and strict measures to be about, giving us time to prepare, learn and manage the virus. Sometimes it feels like 2 steps forward and 3 back but you adapt and change tact as you need to, there is no perfect way right now to manage this, people need to understand this.

In saying that, I think certainly the new FF led government are doing a terrible job which is ironic considering the whinging about not having them form earlier, just aswell they didn’t. For all the slagging FG got , they communicated so much better, FF are making them look so much better then people realised when they were taking us through the bad patch in March.

I guess this could be a tough winter, with a lot of harsh lessons learned. The Virus might put manners on the remaining people fighting against it and trying to downplay it (particularly ones whinging about masks). And then hopefully next year we will start to see green shoots of potential recovery.

Unlike 2008, people have money to spend and they will have money to spend when things reopen each time. Also, everybody is in the same boat so global solutions and even regional (EU wide) economic solutions will be found. We won’t be out on our own like bold children in PIIGS. I’m cautiously optimistic that austerity will be avoided.

Go Home Paddy Cat!!

Personally, I believe we'll have a vaccine at some point next year. We have 5 vaccines in phase 3 so I refuse to believe all 5 will fail (yes I know lots of vaccines fail but for own sanity I believe we will get one). Even a vaccine with limited efficacy will do.

Things will continue as is until then. Whatever about the economic fallout from this, the impact it will have on people's mental health will be inordinate and I wonder what impact that alone will have. I for one in am favour of things continuing as is, especially when I consider the devastating impact this virus has on health care workers.

munchkin_utd

Drumpot wrote: »

If most people who don’t go abroad holiday in Ireland , tourism will be fine.
.

I amnt going to go line by line through the post, but this to start with is wrong.

The irish tourism season is about 6 weeks. Outside of that its UK, US, German and other european tourists that full up the hotels.

Come september there'll still be no rain loving Germans or british pensioners (generally a mad crowd, they'd really be the ones to flout Covid rules) coming to Ireland and the hotels will be empty , and come October when the weather gets properly bad you'll see hotels down the entire length of the west coast closing, possibly forever.

Sad to see it happen, but Ireland really is shooting itsself in the foot. Rain loving pensioners are not a mortal danger to irish health, but the lack of them is a massive danger to the viability of hotels off season in Ireland

scooby77

Funnily my first reaction on reading the title was "the Nation" being the USA!
Things will be bad enough here, that's true, but in the long term I think EU nations will be fine. I agree with previous poster- we're only a few months in, and hopefully learning fast- definitely faster than some.
I'd be more worried about USA. It's in trouble on many fronts, and the virus has really exposed it's societal and economic problems, especially healthcare.
Of course that leads to the question as to how the deterioration of the US would impact us, but too many "unknown unknowns " to answer that at the moment.

Liamo57

For starters, hotels and those in self catering are riding punters crossways and getting away with it, so I could'nt care less if they went wallop. Ireland is in for a serious recession with high unemployment and businesses closing down left, right and centre. Consumers will hang on to their money out of fear.

Quantum Erasure

sabat wrote: »

Mass suicides or revolution.

Where is this fear of mass suicides coming from? Look at the numbers from the last recession, compared to the 10 years before that...

Even if we return to levels of the peak, it's only an extra couple hundred in a year

Well, if Jack Lambert says so then we should all just riot and jump in the nearest river.

Drumpot

munchkin_utd wrote: »

I amnt going to go line by line through the post, but this to start with is wrong.

The irish tourism season is about 6 weeks. Outside of that its UK, US, German and other european tourists that full up the hotels.

Come september there'll still be no rain loving Germans or british pensioners (generally a mad crowd, they'd really be the ones to flout Covid rules) coming to Ireland and the hotels will be empty , and come October when the weather gets properly bad you'll see hotels down the entire length of the west coast closing, possibly forever.

Sad to see it happen, but Ireland really is shooting itsself in the foot. Rain loving pensioners are not a mortal danger to irish health, but the lack of them is a massive danger to the viability of hotels off season in Ireland

That’s why COVID payments have been pushed out to April. Any employee who has no work gets subsidised until next year. Industries really need to learn to adapt here, we shouldn’t change a health strategy In a pandemic purely to suit an industry when we have the financial means to at least try and reduce the impact the virus has on our population.

Vested interest groups will always cry foul on how something like this is affecting them worse and see it primarily from a one sided POV. Bottom line is that there are measures being taken to reduce the sting to employers/employers. We can’t afford it indefinitely but we have put provisions aside until April.

Tourism , airlines and other industries being heavily affected will mostly recover when a vaccine is found or we have adjusted better to the pandemic. The world will move on , new companies will come out of the embers and the ones that adapt best with survive. Economic Darwinism at its finest. Always feels worse when you are in the thick of a crisis.

MerlinSouthDub

I think we'll see a vaccine widely available by Q2 2021, and we'll see a huge economic boom globally and in Ireland.

gabeeg

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I think we'll see a vaccine widely available by Q2 2021, and we'll see a huge economic boom globally and in Ireland.

Any potential economic upside from a vaccine will be dampened by brexit.

These are going to be amazingly challenging times for Ireland, and I've yet to hear a coherent vision for how we'll navigate through them.

Beasty

Threads merged

Deliverance XXV

The thing with the current situation is only this pandemic. In the new modern era with such high populations we could have a pandemic every decade which will heavily impede any nation's chances of recovery.

The government needs to progressively look at longer term planning that could be put in place in the short term. A plan that could be enacted in the event of national security, catastrophes, epidemics or pandemics. It is not feasible to close down employment sectors every time there is a scare but there should be regional restrictions with strict prosecutable regulations and enforcements for non-compliance once a plan is enacted.

faceman

Drumpot wrote: »

If most people who don’t go abroad holiday in Ireland , tourism will be fine.

We have enough evidence now across the EU that shows international tourism isn’t a source of outbreaks

In fact I’d argue that tourism abroad is safer than engaging in social activities in Ireland

Bear with me

In Ireland we socialise with friends, house parties, boozers etc

When we holiday we tend to know no one abroad so stick to our travelling unit. With most European countries being strict with social distancing in bars and restaurant as well as mask wearing, our interaction with others is curtailed. We know that the chance of picking up the virus outdoors, on beaches etc is extremely low. Ireland’s social scene indoor based

Therefore taking a holiday is a far better option than staying in Ireland