In your opinion, what does the future of Travel look like?

PhilOssophy

Aviation is responsible for 12% of CO2 emissions from all transports sources. 74% for road transport.

Thelonious Monk

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Aviation is responsible for 12% of CO2 emissions from all transports sources. 74% for road transport.

I've seen estimates that only 5 to 10% of people will ever fly too

snotboogie

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Aviation is responsible for 12% of CO2 emissions from all transports sources. 74% for road transport.

A lot of that figure will be freight.

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I've seen estimates that only 5 to 10% of people will ever fly too

That's a global figure. Also The Irish number will always be way above average since we are confined to a small island with relatively few commercial ferry options, especially to the European Mainland.

otnomart

Deleted User wrote: »

Its difficult for so many people (myself included) who's children emigrated during last recession. I have one in Vancouver and one in London. I'm not worried about the London lassie and she feels very close to me (the one hour away makes a huge difference psychologically!) and those restrictions might lift sooner than others, but Vancouver is as far West in Canada as you can go ,harder now since my little granddaughter arrived!

Worrying so much about my annual trip out to see them which is now cancelled for May but also future trips or their trips home. So many Irish people are in the same boat now with kids in Canada, US, Austrailia and New Zealand. Its not even a holiday, its keeping up connections with our kids, a necessity. Will be very hard if long haul flights take a hit.

You are right in raising this issue.
All those who emigrated in the last 20 years, have done so knowing that flights were affordable and they could see their family and loved ones regularly.

This crisis has put all these lives on hold, for now.

timmy_mallet

Once a vaccine is released, international travel will require you to have been vaccinated.

Yes or no.

Beasty

Threads merged

maestroamado

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Once a vaccine is released, international travel will require you to have been vaccinated.

Yes or no.

I expect we all be exposed to if it does not just go away after a time,

Muahahaha

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Bad. Really bad. And, as I said upthread, I was very aware that I was part of the problem. In fact, that trip to Lisbon was what really opened my eyes to how damaging overtourism is.

I’m not sure why you highlight tourists from certain parts of the world though. Are they lesser?

No not at all, I was just making the point that when I started travelling back in the late 90s you would never meet eastern Europeans, Russians, Indians, etc on the road, they just didnt exist. First time I ever saw Poles travelling was in Nepal in 2006, up until that point almost everyone you met was either European, American, Aussie or Kiwi with the odd Japanese too.

But that has all changed massively as middle classes have emerged from these countries and now hundreds of millions of people who couldnt afford to travel before now can. So what happened was tourism globally exploded throughout the mid to late 2000s as millions more people could afford to take the same kind of holidays that we in the west do. The global tourism market expanded greatly in that time, entire resorts dedicated solely to Russian tourists sprang up overnight but also cities like Paris, Rome, Lisbon etc that were already very, very busy with only European and American tourists became almost intolerable when even more tourists from other places started going there.

I was just thinking that in June 2005 I was in Rome and went to the Vatican Muesum/Sistine Chapel. The queue just to get inside was 1 hour and 20 minutes. I nearly didnt bother as I hate that kind of stuff but did because heh, its the Sistine Chapel. But just thinking back Id say almost everyone in the queue was European or American. Now fast forward 15 years on and add in stacks of Russina, Indian, Chinese and Indian tourists and Id fear how big that queue has got, wouldnt surprise me if you had to wait for up to three hours to get inside it in peak summer these days.

Thingymebob

We’re new Irish, so usually fly to Himselfs country 2 or 3 times a year. Mine, it’s usually once every 3 years as it’s more expensive and further to go. Plus we like to use some of our annual leave to have actual holidays. We’re not ‘package holiday’ types but don’t begrudge those who are, it just makes it easier to know where not to go.
We’ve seen a good bit of Ireland over the years but now we only spend a night in an Irish hotel if it’s for a wedding as we don’t think it represents value for money (and that’s before you think about the weather or having a drink).
We hope it gets back to normal soon, with a vaccine possibly. We lost our wedding anniversary trip for St Pats weekend (we decided not to travel, rather than end up stranded abroad), but we’ve got a big birthday trip in October.

Any predictions on when holiday travel will resume for 2020 in Europe?

I've cancelled my summer trip which was due to go in late May into June - I'm hoping some Irish hotels/restaurants will be open by then but not holding my breath.

I was just thinking, who wants to see Italian tourists in Ireland in the coming weeks or indeed Irish tourists in Italy more to the point, as they'll have just started to get back control as they're a good 1 month ahead of us in terms of the curve?

I'd imagine there will be a period where locals in any area, will not want to see anyone other than other locals no matter what area they're living in, until a good month passes after an all-clear being issued- simply because different countries are moving at different paces through the curve.

Canyon86

Personally I have written off the idea of travelling abroad for the next 6 months, if that changes I ll be pleasantly surprised

I hope I'm wrong

PhilOssophy

Deleted User wrote: »

Any predictions on when holiday travel will resume for 2020 in Europe?

I think it won't. 2020=write off all round for tourism.

ricero

Hoping for my flights to spain to be cancelled in early June and I can get my money back.

Cant see any holidays for a very long time.

Canyon86

Canyon86 wrote: »

Personally I have written off the idea of travelling abroad for the next 6 months, if that changes I ll be pleasantly surprised

I hope I'm wrong

Me too.

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I think it won't. 2020=write off all round for tourism.

I think August into September will have decent levels of uptake but not before then

ricero wrote: »

Hoping for my flights to spain to be cancelled in early June and I can get my money back.

Cant see any holidays for a very long time.

I'd say to rent a house near a scenic area in Ireland in July and August will be extortionate this year

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Aviation is responsible for 12% of CO2 emissions from all transports sources. 74% for road transport.

The vast majority of air travel is non-essential flights. The vast majority of road transport is essential movement of goods and people!

Mehapoy

I'd love to think things will change after this ie. Less frivolous city breaks, locals not being priced out of destination cities but i fear like 2008, when people said this would change banking etc. etc. people paying silly money for houses, things will just go back to the same after all this. Lookup some threads from 2008/09/10 on how ireland would have changed and amost nobody predicted business as usual which is basically what happened.

PhilOssophy

Mehapoy wrote: »

I'd love to think things will change after this ie. Less frivolous city breaks, locals not being priced out of destination cities but i fear like 2008, when people said this would change banking etc. etc. people paying silly money for houses, things will just go back to the same after all this. Lookup some threads from 2008/09/10 on how ireland would have changed and amost nobody predicted business as usual which is basically what happened.

People forget. There is always a new and more pressing issue than fundamental change. Don't get me wrong I would hope those changes happen too, but they won't.

completedit

Mehapoy wrote: »

I'd love to think things will change after this ie. Less frivolous city breaks, locals not being priced out of destination cities but i fear like 2008, when people said this would change banking etc. etc. people paying silly money for houses, things will just go back to the same after all this. Lookup some threads from 2008/09/10 on how ireland would have changed and amost nobody predicted business as usual which is basically what happened.

True, but the bailouts and all sort of kept the current system on life support. This might be the nail in the coffin for neoliberalism and the status quo.

ShineOn7

I think it'll be interesting to see how soon Thailand opens back up to tourists again. I've read that Tourism accounts for 20% of their GDP, but I've spent 9 weeks in the place in various locations and there's no way it's just 20%, it feels closer to 50% on some of the islands

Similarly, 65% of Bali's GDP depends on Tourism (according to one source I read), there's no way they'll survive too long with closed borders

And Spain without tourists? Utterly fúcked economically.

There'll be a tipping point in the Travel industry where closed borders will do more harm than Covid, what is deemed as an acceptable number of new cases a week will vary from country to country

Thelonious Monk

People will be less willing to travel anyway, especially to Asia. Bali, Thailand etc survived before tourism, they'll find a way to keep going without it. Sooner or later I'd imagine it will go back to how it was when all this is done and dusted.

snotboogie

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I think it'll be interesting to see how soon Thailand opens back up to tourists again. I've read that Tourism accounts for 20% of their GDP, but I've spent 9 weeks in the place in various locations and there's no way it's just 20%, it feels closer to 50% on some of the islands

Similarly, 65% of Bali's GDP depends on Tourism (according to one source I read), there's no way they'll survive too long with closed borders

And Spain without tourists? Utterly fúcked economically.

There'll be a tipping point in the Travel industry where closed borders will do more harm than Covid, what is deemed as an acceptable number of new cases a week will vary from country to country

I would say on the islands it's easily 50%, probably much more. Bangkok would be closer to the 20% i'd say, some areas of the North would have next to no tourism.

ShineOn7

snotboogie wrote: »

I would say on the islands it's easily 50%, probably much more. Bangkok would be closer to the 20% i'd say, some areas of the North would have next to no tourism.

Yes I'd say on islands like Koh Tao, Koh Phi Phi and Koh Phangan it's more like 90% of the economy is reliant on Tourism

Muahahaha

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Yes I'd say on islands like Koh Tao, Koh Phi Phi and Koh Phangan it's more like 90% of the economy is reliant on Tourism

Thailand does depend on tourism but its nowhere near as dependent as that. In 2017 17% of their GDP was tourism related. They have a burgeoning manufacturing sector. They are also the worlds biggest producer of silk. Their car manufacturing industry is big business- BMW, Toyota, Honda, Suzuki all make cars or car parts there.

Machinery including computers: US$40.2 billion (16.4% of total exports)
Electrical machinery, equipment: $33.9 billion (13.8%)
Vehicles: $28.9 billion (11.8%)
Gems, precious metals: $15.7 billion (6.4%)
Rubber, rubber articles: $15.3 billion (6.3%)
Plastics, plastic articles: $13.3 billion (5.4%)
Mineral fuels including oil: $8.5 billion (3.5%)
Meat/seafood preparations: $6.7 billion (2.7%)
Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.4 billion (2.2%)
Organic chemicals: $4.6 billion (1.9%)

The problem for countries in Asia like Thailand opening back up is people are going to ask does their travel insurance cover a lengthy stay in a foreign hospital if they contracted the virus abroad. I cant see insurance companies offering that level of cover without massively increasing the cost of the policy. Aside from that people will wonder if they did contract it abroad what is the health care going to be like?

When tourism does open back up I could see people largely sticking to their own country for a while and then later at least countries where they are covered for medical cases when abroad such as free hospital care anywhere in the EU if you are an EU citizen and have a European Health Insurance Card.

S.M.B.

Lufthansa grounding germanwings subsidiary, retiring planes in the basis that they are not expecting passenger levels to return to 2019 levels for years.

That's quite a drastic move from such a major player.

marno21

S.M.B. wrote: »

Lufthansa grounding germanwings subsidiary, retiring planes in the basis that they are not expecting passenger levels to return to 2019 levels for years.

That's quite a drastic move from such a major player.

Lufthansa were already in the process of incorporating Germanwings into Eurowings, they have just accelerated the process.

Same with the planes. They are retiring their most expensive to run and inefficient planes (747-400s, A340s and A380s), that were to be retired before 2022 anyway. Given that flight restrictions will be in place for a lengthy period of time they have decided to retire these ahead of time than having to pay for maintenance and parking costs for surplus aircraft.

threeball

S.M.B. wrote: »

Lufthansa grounding germanwings subsidiary, retiring planes in the basis that they are not expecting passenger levels to return to 2019 levels for years.

That's quite a drastic move from such a major player.

I hope we don't see billions of tax payers money pumped in to businesses like airlines that just aren't essential. I can't see any other industry that will possibly get the assistance they will and they are just not required. If 50% of the planes went back in to the sky we would have more than enough to cover our needs. This is a great chance to reduce that massive carbon footprint for good.

Ich liebe Berlin

The utter contempt shown on this thread for people who like to travel makes for a very depressing read.

ShineOn7

threeball wrote: »

This is a great chance to reduce that massive carbon footprint for good.

:rolleyes:

Give me strength

Muahahaha

threeball wrote: »

I hope we don't see billions of tax payers money pumped in to businesses like airlines that just aren't essential. I can't see any other industry that will possibly get the assistance they will and they are just not required. If 50% of the planes went back in to the sky we would have more than enough to cover our needs. This is a great chance to reduce that massive carbon footprint for good.

The other side of it as well is that there is a hell of a lot of travel by business execs, see the UK survey where 1% of the population took 20% of all flights in the UK.

Right now that cohort are forced into doing all their meetings via Skype. Id imagine when the dust does settle on all this many companies are going to ask themselves is it really necessary that their execs fly thousands of miles for meetings that could be done online. A poster on another thread said their company flew someone Dublin to Hong Kong for a 30 minute meeting and then they turned around and flew straight back again.

So its not hard to see how the business traveller market will contract a fair bit and that change is likely to be permanent. Some companies will still continue on as normal but others will ask themselves if sending someone half way around the world and back is really an efficient use of their time and resources., especially after they've spent several months doing Skype meetings with no discernible difference in the outcomes.

snotboogie

Muahahaha wrote: »

The other side of it as well is that there is a hell of a lot of travel by business execs, see the UK survey where 1% of the population took 20% of all flights in the UK.

Right now that cohort are forced into doing all their meetings via Skype. Id imagine when the dust does settle on all this many companies are going to ask themselves is it really necessary that their execs fly thousands of miles for meetings that could be done online. A poster on another thread said their company flew someone Dublin to Hong Kong for a 30 minute meeting and then they turned around and flew straight back again.

So its not hard to see how the business traveller market will contract a fair bit and that change is likely to be permanent. Some companies will still continue on as normal but others will ask themselves if sending someone half way around the world and back is really an efficient use of their time and resources., especially after they've spent several months doing Skype meetings with no discernible difference in the outcomes.

This has been looked into by companies since the advent of video conferencing. There is a massive discernable difference in outcome, hence why companies continued to spend and will continue to spend on international travel.