In your opinion, what does the future of Travel look like?

ShineOn7

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Excellent, get a test before a flight and get Covid19 there! Flawless plan.

At what point do you suggest the world tries to get back to a semblance of normality?

2030?

2035?

PhilOssophy

ShineOn7 wrote: »

At what point do you suggest the world tries to get back to a semblance of normality?

2030?

2035?

Well getting over the other side of the bell curve would be a good start. What are you proposing, just go back to normal and let thousands die like Trump tried to do when he called this a hoax and fake news a few months ago?

ShineOn7

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Well getting over the other side of the bell curve would be a good start. What are you proposing, just go back to normal and let thousands die like Trump tried to do when he called this a hoax and fake news a few months ago?

Of course not. I've said on here before that Spain are off their trolley if they think they'll be safely back open by May for tourists.

But you can't shut down the tourism industry in every country till a vaccine gets here (in 18 months apparently?) either. Getting tested at airports is a step in the right direction at least

PhilOssophy

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Of course not. I've said on here before that Spain are off their trolley if they think they'll be safely back open by May for tourists.

But you can't shut down the tourism industry in every country till a vaccine gets here (in 18 months apparently?) either. Getting tested at airports is a step in the right direction at least

Its a step to help airlines get into the air again. That is all it is helping. Unfortunately, like it or lump it tourism everywhere is closed until there is a vaccine or until the numbers are very low, which certainly won't happen any time soon.

Stateofyou

The hotels and restaurants would have to reopen if people are traveling for tourism again. How would that work? I wouldn't risk it and I love traveling. The worst would be to fall sick while abroad. Even if travel were to be technically allowed some time soon, my family and I will be waiting until this thing is well tackled. :-/

Muahahaha

Stateofyou wrote: »

The hotels and restaurants would have to reopen if people are traveling for tourism again. How would that work? I wouldn't risk it and I love traveling. The worst would be to fall sick while abroad. Even if travel were to be technically allowed some time soon, my family and I will be waiting until this thing is well tackled. :-/

Id say hotels and restuarants reopening will be coming with new regulations on social distancing, restaurants will have to block off 50% of their seats, that kind of thing. Pubs could be harder though as people get drunk and are messy, rules go out the window.

Getting sick abroad is not an attractive prospect for many people and even if they re-open people thinking of travelling are going to have this on their mind. Insurance wont cover you which is another huge roadblock.

Ultimately I dont think things will get back to a proper normal until we have a working vaccine which removes the possibility of transferring the virus. While everyone remains vulnerable people will exercise caution on what they do and where they go.

completedit

Start small

Realistically, travel to places outside or Europe is pretty much a non runner for the majority for next few years.

I reckon by the time tourism is back to normal, cities around the world will have got over their tourist revenues and decide to adopt more sustainable economic and environmental models. Look at Amsterdam. They’ll probably look to ween themselves off tourism. Will be good for Europeans as we will be able to enjoy the cities inside our own continent in a way we haven’t been able to.

ShineOn7

Muahahaha wrote: »

restaurants will have to block off 50% of their seats

I've heard and read more than once that many restaurants need 40% of their seats covered by customers just to break even

completedit

The hospitality sector is screwed until a vaccine is found. The damage of this will become apparent moreso when the numbness subsides. No idea what they will do. Strange times.

Stateofyou

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I've heard and read more than once that many restaurants need 40% of their seats covered by customers just to break even

Did you happen to read anything about sustainability through takeaway? Hopefully that is a viable option.

PhilOssophy

completedit wrote: »

Start small

Realistically, travel to places outside or Europe is pretty much a non runner for the majority for next few years.

I reckon by the time tourism is back to normal, cities around the world will have got over their tourist revenues and decide to adopt more sustainable economic and environmental models. Look at Amsterdam. They’ll probably look to ween themselves off tourism. Will be good for Europeans as we will be able to enjoy the cities inside our own continent in a way we haven’t been able to.

Why would any city wean themselves off probably their biggest market? Makes no sense.
I know I disagree with some posters above about when/how often/etc but there is absolutely no way cities like Amsterdam won't be open for business as usual once this all ends. Why would they? They will be desperate to get the tills rolling again.

hmmm

Tourism will change and adapt, and probably many cases will only look to cover costs at best. Things will get more expensive, but I'd say a lot of people will be desperate to travel and get a break from it all, so will spend the money.

It looks increasingly like there is very little virus transmission outdoors. Sun holidays will still work, as long as you stay on the beach and eat outside. Visiting pubs and indoor restaurants are a no-no for now. The sunnier parts of Europe I think will see good business.

Airplanes have very good air filtration systems. Possibly with fewer numbers on board the risk is even lower. I see airports as a bigger risk, but they can reduce numbers.

People will rent cars rather than use public transport, or drive to their destination. Ferries might make a comeback.

Hygiene everywhere will be a big determinant on where people travel. This is undoubtedly a good thing. Hotels will be judged based on how clean they are, how well their staff adhere to hygiene standards, how safe their food is provided.

completedit

Because Amsterdam is unlivable and this will show them that they can live without yankee dollars and Chinese yen.

They just adopted a very interesting “doughnut” economic model for the city so they seem to be moving towards a a more economically sustainable, maybe even zero growth model.

PhilOssophy

completedit wrote: »

Because Amsterdam is unlivable and this will show them that they can live without yankee dollars and Chinese yen.

They just adopted a very interesting “doughnut” economic model for the city so they seem to be moving towards a a more economically sustainable, maybe even zero growth model.

What do you mean "this will show them"? What will show them?

Thelonious Monk

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Why would any city wean themselves off probably their biggest market? Makes no sense.
I know I disagree with some posters above about when/how often/etc but there is absolutely no way cities like Amsterdam won't be open for business as usual once this all ends. Why would they? They will be desperate to get the tills rolling again.

Because there are many downsides to mass tourism. Not everyone wants their city centres turned into Disneylands. It may bring in more money but money isn't everything and mass tourism pushes locals out of their own cities.

completedit

PhilOssophy wrote: »

What do you mean "this will show them"? What will show them?

The next 2 years. Life will go on. People will suffer initially and then a new normal will emerge. For cities like Amsterdam, Prague, Dublin, the days of huge tourism being a money spinner are over. People will like being able to live in their cities again and will probably push for more restrictions in terms of tourist numbers, if and when the world opens back up again.

Muahahaha

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I've heard and read more than once that many restaurants need 40% of their seats covered by customers just to break even

yeah it depends on the size of the restaurant, a 50 seater needs to be almost full most of the time to be viable, larger restaurants can afford more empty tables.

I think the landlords are going to have to show some forbearance for maybe 6 months by reducing rents perhaps by 20 or 30% to give operators breathing room. That way they could re-open with half the seats sealed off for social distancing regulations but still operate. They wouldnt be making any super profits, it would purely be an exercise of keeping the business afloat and on life support until we get back to a proper normal with a vaccine.

Landlords have the choice of getting 70 or 80% rent or not getting any rent at all and having an empty unit on their hands that would be hard to let. Problem is that could go up the chain so then the landlord is looking for a break from the banks. Its a really tricky situation that requires everyone from banks to landlords to operators to take a bath in this mess.

ShineOn7

Stateofyou wrote: »

Did you happen to read anything about sustainability through takeaway? Hopefully that is a viable option.

Dublin examples;

Boojum have adopted well to it and I think they'll do well with the Just Eat app. It's great, cheap (but not completely unhealthy) food that has a big fanbase. myself included

But let's take a Michelin star restaurant like Chapter One. There's no way in the current tight financial market when people are penny pinching that they'll survive on home deliveries

Thelonious Monk

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Dublin examples;

Boojum have adopted well to it and I think they'll do well with the Just Eat app. It's great, cheap (but not completely unhealthy) food that has a big fanbase. myself included

But let's take a Michelin star restaurant like Chapter One. There's no way in the current tight financial market when people are penny pinching that they'll survive on home deliveries

The vast majority of restaurants are skating on thin ice in normal times anyway. I think something like 80% of them go out of business in the first 2 years, I never understood how so many people are willing to invest in such a risk.
But yes I can't see take away keeping many afloat, I hope it does, I'm going to try and order from the local Italian place next time I'm getting some take away, I'd rather that that some chain.
I'm pretty sure Boojum were on Deliveroo already, I've never used that app though.

completedit

What does Dublin look like after this? When you think about travelers coming to Ireland, so many are old Americans. That ain’t happening anytime soon. All the hotels in Dublin....any chance the Bernard Shaw could come back?

ShineOn7

hmmm wrote: »

Tourism will change and adapt, and probably many cases will only look to cover costs at best. Things will get more expensive, but I'd say a lot of people will be desperate to travel and get a break from it all, so will spend the money.

It looks increasingly like there is very little virus transmission outdoors. Sun holidays will still work, as long as you stay on the beach and eat outside. Visiting pubs and indoor restaurants are a no-no for now. The sunnier parts of Europe I think will see good business.

Airplanes have very good air filtration systems. Possibly with fewer numbers on board the risk is even lower. I see airports as a bigger risk, but they can reduce numbers.

People will rent cars rather than use public transport, or drive to their destination. Ferries might make a comeback.

Hygiene everywhere will be a big determinant on where people travel. This is undoubtedly a good thing. Hotels will be judged based on how clean they are, how well their staff adhere to hygiene standards, how safe their food is provided.

All good points. But oh, so much work

We didn't know how easy and good we had it

Ich liebe Berlin

This thread is a very odd read.

PhilOssophy

completedit wrote: »

The next 2 years. Life will go on. People will suffer initially and then a new normal will emerge. For cities like Amsterdam, Prague, Dublin, the days of huge tourism being a money spinner are over. People will like being able to live in their cities again and will probably push for more restrictions in terms of tourist numbers, if and when the world opens back up again.

The new normal = unemployment. In an ideal world, yes people doing less travelling is something I am all in favour of (and have said as much in this thread to date). But the idea that somehow these cities are just going to close their doors, and live some happy jolly existence without tourism, is daft.

PhilOssophy

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

The vast majority of restaurants are skating on thin ice in normal times anyway. I think something like 80% of them go out of business in the first 2 years, I never understood how so many people are willing to invest in such a risk.
But yes I can't see take away keeping many afloat, I hope it does, I'm going to try and order from the local Italian place next time I'm getting some take away, I'd rather that that some chain.
I'm pretty sure Boojum were on Deliveroo already, I've never used that app though.

Take aways are literally flat out at the moment, I have been a few times (I refuse to take a delivery from them at the moment) and they seem to be always busy. I hope it helps them survive.

ShineOn7

Ich liebe Berlin wrote: »

This thread is a very odd read.

Go on ....

completedit

PhilOssophy wrote: »

The new normal = unemployment. In an ideal world, yes people doing less travelling is something I am all in favour of (and have said as much in this thread to date). But the idea that somehow these cities are just going to close their doors, and live some happy jolly existence without tourism, is daft.

Just hypothesizing

Muahahaha

completedit wrote: »

What does Dublin look like after this? When you think about travelers coming to Ireland, so many are old Americans. That ain’t happening anytime soon. All the hotels in Dublin....any chance the Bernard Shaw could come back?

I think Americans are around about 12-15% of the Irish tourist market so its not totally catastrophic to the industry if they dont come for the next 12-18 months until there is a vaccine.

High end hotels like Ashford Castle would be hardest hit with the loss of the American market but they could replace that domestically by dropping their prices. So instead of Americans paying 500 quid a night for a double room drop it to 300 a night and suddenly many Irish will bite. It wont be as profitable for them but it will help keep their heads above water till we get back to normal.

Ich liebe Berlin

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Go on ....

There's a huge amount of contempt for people who like to travel on this thread. I don't smoke or drink or play sports, travel is my passion. I'm glad I don't know anybody anti travel in real life.

ZX7R

Some airlines are thinking of introducing a waiver for covid-19.
Leaving it up to the customer if they wish to fly

Thelonious Monk

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Take aways are literally flat out at the moment, I have been a few times (I refuse to take a delivery from them at the moment) and they seem to be always busy. I hope it helps them survive.

Oh I know that, I had an order rejected by one last week for the first time!
I'm not aware of any restaurants benefiting from the current sitch however.