CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

wakka12

easypazz wrote: »

Place the over 66's and anybody with a relevant underlying condition under house arrest would allow the rest of the population start getting back on track sooner.

Unless there is a big death toll every night people will be asking what the fcuk?

If it stays below 10 deaths a day for a week or 2 then its time to relax things, with those in the firing line left under house arrest.

People over 65 and with health conditions is about 1/5 - 1/4 of the entire population

Just Saying

With all the uncertainty about numbers of tests and the delays in getting test results I think the daily death totals and the rate of upward trend in same assume greater importance.

The daily death rate and the 3 and 5 day moving averages of same are not showing the rapid increases at this point in the graph as .might have been expected.

This gives me a lot of hope that we are on the right track.While we have testing issues we are still per head of population a lot better than our larger European neighbours.

The daily death rate here is trending towards a substantial flattening of the curve.While there is normally a time lag between new cases and deaths it would indicate that closing of pubs etc ,large scale and earlier adherence to social distancing compared to other countries and also the use of contact tracing have combined to prevent the rapid increase in deaths witnessed in other countries.

pjohnson

Wimbledon 2021 wrote: »

You don't have a clue yourself what your talking about. The figures released each day are the current cumulative figures.

I do but you yourself dont seem to understand what people are saying. But its your first day so I'll be kind.

Widdensushi

thelad95 wrote: »

I don't know what planet you are on, the lockdown is not going to be relaxed anytime soon.

it is of course, it's about keeping the infected cases at a level that the hospitals can cope with while building immunity with as many as possible. There is no chance of closing our doors and this not being out there when we open them, it's about management.

easypazz

gmisk wrote: »

How many people do you think that is? Over 66 in Ireland.
Putting them under house arrest....how would that work?

Tell them to stay indoors and put supports in place.

Then its their choice, so in 6 weeks time if they get infected and die then they have nobody to blame but themselves.

As things stand we are all effectively under house arrest.

bennyl10

Blanco100 wrote: »

are you sure? I think it means there are currently 126 people in ICU.

as per worldometer its 103 people critical.

Yes. I am sure
Worldometer isn’t always accurate.

There are more that 5 recovered in Ireland and there are not 126 people currently in ICU

PTH2009

your man on the news is dressed a bit scruffy for a professor

Crazy times were living in overall and this time last year who would of thought it would ever come to this

easypazz

wakka12 wrote: »

People over 65 and with health conditions is about 1/5 - 1/4 of the entire population

yes and it is better to have 1/4 of the population under lockdown while the 3/4 provide for them.

pc7

Just Saying wrote: »

With all the uncertainty about numbers of tests and the delays in getting test results I think the daily death totals and the rate of upward trend in same assume greater importance.

The daily death rate and the 3 and 5 day moving averages of same are not showing the rapid increases at this point in the graph as .might have been expected.

This gives me a lot of hope that we are on the right track.While we have testing issues we are still per head of population a lot better than our larger European neighbours.

The daily death rate here is trending towards a substantial flattening of the curve.While there is normally a time lag between new cases and deaths it would indicate that closing of pubs etc ,large scale and earlier adherence to social distancing compared to other countries and also the use of contact tracing have combined to prevent the rapid increase in deaths witnessed in other countries.

That’s great to know, was actually coming on to ask did anyone know how the death figures were mapping.

Rows Grower

Professor Luke O Neil just gave a fantastically upbeat interview there on RTE News, what a pleasure to listen to such a positive educated person.

Kermit.de.frog

They simply refuse (as per press conference) to give current ICU numbers. Astonishing really. Every other country in Europe I have followed does this.

pjohnson

Wimbledon 2021 wrote: »

No you don't, otherwise you wouldn't have distinguished between cumulative and current.

There is a difference between the two terms, even if you want to call it "current cumulative" to try and blur things. That is unless you think that they leave someone that is deceased/recovered from coronavirus in the ICU bed after the case is closed.

I would be pretty confident in saying that anyone recovered/deceased is not CURRENTLY still in the ICU bed.

Notmything

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

My sister in law is a senior nurse in ICU in Dublin and says the figure is the number now in ICUs. So I'm totally confused.

Gavin Reilly says the figure is the total at that point in time

Fergal Bowers says it is the total number, if I am reading their tweets correctly. Apologies don't know how to embed pictures

woohoo!!!

Watching that is a waste of time. They're still reacting instead of implementing measures to get ahead of issues. And they're not answering questions.

With the testing debacle, people are not going to bother to come forward for testing.

They haven't a clue as to why so many health workers are getting infected.

And they're falling back to the DoH standard, say nathin

gmisk

easypazz wrote: »

Tell them to stay indoors and put supports in place.

Then its their choice, so in 6 weeks time if they get infected and die then they have nobody to blame but themselves.

As things stand we are all effectively under house arrest.

So like someone else said 1/4 to 1/5th of the population....good luck with that.

Under house arrest when you are free to go out and exercise, go to supermarket and chemist...

smelly sock

Doyler99 wrote: »

Then infection goes back up again which lead to another lockdown.....?

Relax the lockdown. Not the social distancing measures. Leave pubs and schools closed but let people back to work.

BanditLuke

Rows Grower wrote: »

Professor Luke O Neil just gave a fantastically upbeat interview there on RTE News, what a pleasure to listen to such a positive educated person.

The same Luke O'Neill who was laughing and joking a few weeks back on the late late telling us it was nothing to worry about?

Doyler99

kwestfan08 wrote: »

But isnt that the course we are on for the next 2 years or so? This is lockdown 1.0, once we get cases under control restrictions are relaxed. When cases inevitably rise again it will be lockdown 2.0 until such time as cases are back under a certain level. Rinse and repeat until the vaccine.

If it's going to be like this for the next few months, I can see civil unrest exploding. I feel like the Govt. will just keep renewing this lockdown every two weeks?

Coyote

Number updated to match today's report

I have updated the % needing ICU to 6%, I also left the number of new cases going forward as the testing numbers are unsure

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths
if anyone has questions or thinks it could be changed with better data let me know


interesting visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

ninebeanrows

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They simply refuse (as per press conference) to give current ICU numbers. Astonishing really. Every other country in Europe I have followed does this.

I think they literally don't have it, unlikely a cover-up.

He did say that most of the cumulative number are likely to be still in the ICU, so I reckon we take that as our number to monitor

Xertz

Some people seem to be getting a little overly concerned about the raw number live data. It's actually not that relevant as what matters in a situation like this is trends as there are time delays and all sorts of complications in statistical analysis of what are quite small numbers.

The data is also generally quite ropy and inconsistent on internet sites as different reporting systems are not producing the same types of figures. I would wait for international bodies in the EU, OECD and WHO to really start number crunching before you can get any kind of like-for-like comparison.

Thankfully, the death toll in Ireland and quite a few of the Northern European countries so far is still relatively small. You can't really extrapolate much from it at this stage other than it's significantly below where the original models were predicting which would tend to indicate that we have done something right and it hasn't 'exploded'.

My sense is that we've a few significant natural advantages, mostly that we've a relatively low density population, even in urban areas and a fairly young demographic spread, but also that we have moved to make very significant changes to cause spread to drop off rapidly before it really took hold.

Lwaker.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Won't happen. Once the decline is clear, the government will start thinking about the economy. This will be a balancing act between public health and the economy, and in a couple of weeks they will look to revisit that balance

No they'll focus on health

Smart thing for politicians to do

gmisk

smelly sock wrote: »

Relax the lockdown. Not the social distancing measures. Leave pubs and schools closed but let people back to work.

Social distancing on public transport in Dublin specifically when everyone is back to work...good luck with that

BanditLuke

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They simply refuse (as per press conference) to give current ICU numbers. Astonishing really. Every other country in Europe I have followed does this.

Controlling the narrative has been their goal from day one.

marilynrr

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

My sister in law is a senior nurse in ICU in Dublin and says the figure is the number now in ICUs. So I'm totally confused.

Yep everyone keeps saying that it's a cumulative figure but I definitely remember one day where the ICU numbers dropped from the previous day...and it dropped more than the amount of deaths for the previous day.

coastwatch

Not sure why people are getting so worked up over current versus cumulative ICU numbers.
There may be very little difference at this stage in the oubreak, as patients can be in ICU for 3-4 weeks with this, and we are only 3-4 weeks into it.

otnomart

DubInMeath wrote: »

They estimate that they are capable of doing this number

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/wireStory/mass-testing-empty-icus-germany-scores-early-virus-69911783
virologist Dr. Christian Drosten, whose team developed the first test for the new virus at Berlin's Charité hospital — established over 300 years ago to treat plague victims.

He estimated that Germany is now capable of conducting up to 500,000 tests a week

The number of tests in Germany had been a mistery for a long while,
I finally found it buried in the German report from Robert Koch - page 6, section titled Labortestungen.
Google Translate: "The feedback from the laboratories showed that 918,460 samples have been tested so far from the beginning of the collection up to and including calendar week 13/2020, of which 64,906 were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2."
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html

Sober Crappy Chemis

Doyler99 wrote: »

I can see civil unrest exploding

Absolute needless, baseless, voyeuristic and fearmongering bullcraap.

Cork Boy 53

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is 126 total for ROI or all Island of Ireland including NI?

ROI only. The HSE have no jurisdiction over the NI health service.

Westernyelp

BanditLuke wrote: »

The same Luke O'Neill who was laughing and joking a few weeks back on the late late telling us it was nothing to worry about?

I don't think he ever did that in fairness,

crossman47

tom1ie wrote: »

I may have missed this but why do we get the cumulative icu bed figures and not the real time figures?

So we can relate ICU to total cases and total hospitalisations

easypazz

gmisk wrote: »

Social distancing on public transport in Dublin specifically when everyone is back to work...good luck with that

Once the vulnerable stay away it won't be as big an issue.

Working from home, schools close, libraries closed etc. will keep the numbers on public transport down.

fritzelly

pjohnson wrote: »

I do but you yourself dont seem to understand what people are saying. But its your first day so I'll be kind.

Made me laugh

Former Great

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

gmisk

easypazz wrote: »

Once the vulnerable stay away it won't be as big an issue.

Working from home, schools close, libraries closed etc. will keep the numbers on public transport down.

So what are the big differences in what is actually happening now in Ireland in that case?...

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

No it hasn't, HSE and HSPC were saying originally it was the total for the day - so they have been changing the definition and one saying one thing, the other saying another

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

deisedevil

Former Great wrote: »

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

The Gardai. And your you shouldn't feel guilty about doing it either.

careless sherpa

gmisk wrote: »

Social distancing on public transport in Dublin specifically when everyone is back to work...good luck with that

As well as large open plan offices.

pjohnson

easypazz wrote: »

Once the vulnerable stay away it won't be as big an issue.

Working from home, schools close, libraries closed etc. will keep the numbers on public transport down.

So people with asthma etc. are to be permanently removed from the workforce?

That'll help keep welfare down for sure :pac:

Curious_Case

Former Great wrote: »

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

Unless there's a significant footfall I wouldn't bother.

Loafing Oaf

easypazz wrote: »

Tell them to stay indoors and put supports in place.

Then its their choice, so in 6 weeks time if they get infected and die then they have nobody to blame but themselves.

As things stand we are all effectively under house arrest.

Are you aware a large proportion of over 65s, even more so the most vulnerable ones, live with children and grandchildren?

crossman47

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

As is George Lee. he reported 126 on the news s the current figure despite being told otherwise at the press briefing.

darjeeling

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

Relaxing any form of this lock down would be pissing into the wind and put us back to square one.

Strap yourself in for another few months

As was pointed out by Jeremy Hunt, former UK Health Secretary, lockdowns are a blunt instrument. We can do a lot better.

He proposed continuing to try to suppress the epidemic by using mass, fast testing and contact tracing, the idea being presumably to wait it out until a vaccine is available.

An alternative would be to tolerate it spreading in the low risk population while trying actually to do a proper job of putting a barrier round the vulnerable.
This is riskier and hasn't worked anywhere so far due to lack of PPE, insufficient training, mixing of infected and uninfected patients / home residents, and lack of testing.
Consequently there have been at least 21 hospital outbreaks and 24 nursing home outbreaks here, according to HSE stats.
For it to work would require fast turnaround testing of care staff and patients/home residents for current/past infection, and appropriate PPE and distancing in all care settings - home help, nursing homes, and hospitals.

Either way, we will also need to keep reconfiguring the health service to increase capacity for treating COVID-19 cases and to isolate them from the rest of patients.

Gynoid

Earlier I had a look at some media reports from March 4th when we were beginning to hear about issues in Ireland. This was a group of 4, a family back from Italy, all positive for coronavirus. It was in addition to one other case we had heard of, I think.
It was 4 weeks ago.
The local schools said they would close, but only until March 13th. Politicians and health officials said just restrict some classes for a few days.
The Deputy CMO said he saw no reason to advise against punters going to Cheltenham. Tony Holohan said he saw no reason to ban St Patricks day parades, and that schools and universities should remain open.
Italy had 3000 cases on record and 100 deaths.

4 weeks later Italy has 110,000 cases on record and more than 13,000 deaths.
We have had 85 deaths and unknown case numbers due mainly to testing issues.

It has been a very strange 4 weeks.

fritzelly

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

Not what the HSE said earlier in the day before changing it to cumulative

woohoo!!!

careless sherpa wrote: »

As well as large open plan offices.

I've always hated the large open place office which we've been in for about 10 years. I'll definitely be pushing to maximise working from home hours.

MarkY91

Former Great wrote: »

Noticed a business earlier that really shouldnt be opened , dont like reporting people but who do i report to if i decide to do so

What type of business?

There's a local dog grooming shop still open near to me.... allowed to bring a dog for a haircut but not yourself..... bizarre.

Vivienne23

4 weeks ??? Feels like 4 years !

Coyote

humberklog wrote: »

A few pages/threads back someone posted a link to a really natty site that allowed you to select the countries you wanted to see on a graph and compare contrast. The graph would move along from day zero with each country. Does anyone remember that site and have a look?

I'm interested in following Ireland and Denmark's increases and this was a useful tool.

Hi humberklog

the site i think you are talking about is
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Xertz

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

As I’ve said over and over if you read the reported issues everyday after the briefing the dept of health have consistently and clearly (showing their calculations) reported cumulative numbers.

The media and people on Twitter are reporting incorrectly and confusing people who appear unable to do simple maths and read English.

What I don't understand is why anyone would think the HSE or the DoH would have an agenda to engage in some kind of cover up of this. It quite literally makes absolutely no sense, whatsoever.

They are in 'all hands on deck' and 'pull out all the stops' mode and are genuinely working flat out across all sorts of areas.

You have to remember that other than Coronavirus, there are gargantuan efforts going on to keep all the other services running.

Just to give you an example, a relative of mine is having on-going cancer treatment and their team had to find new venues for infusions, which involved nurses / local management going in and working with contractors and getting a facilities up and running. They were getting equipment moved, installed, rooms cleaned, painted, getting electrical systems updated - you name it, they're doing it. There are nurses, managers, administrators, cleaners, everyone working flat out behind the scenes across the whole system in a way that is genuinely unprecedented.

The press conferences are trying to get out as much information as they can and it has largely been very accurate and they are being as open and forthcoming as they can. You have to realise they're not used to dealing with public presentation of medical stats. They're used to issuing stats to academics and medics and those are often technical, dense reports that would need to be read by someone who's familiar with reading them.

Perhaps they could get some staff in from say the CSO or academia to help out with publishing stats and info. It not something the HSE is actually used to doing and perhaps the presentation isn't quite media-friendly or is assuming a degree of expertise that doesn't exist, but I honestly think this constant accusation of some kind of coverup or agenda is beyond nonsense.

What I would suggest, if any of the HSE are reading this, is go out and find a science communicator. There are a few good ones I can think of off hand and Science Foundation Ireland might be able to help here, and give them the job of presenting data online and supporting the media.