CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

blackcard

coastwatch wrote: »

Not sure why people are getting so worked up over current versus cumulative ICU numbers.
There may be very little difference at this stage in the oubreak, as patients can be in ICU for 3-4 weeks with this, and we are only 3-4 weeks into it.

In some countries, the number of people requiring ICU's exceeded the number of ICU's available. As they weren't getting the required treatment, this lead to dramatic increases in the death rate. It would be very informative to know the amount of ICU's available versus the amount that are currently in use. This would let us know the spare capacity, if any, and inform us regarding our ability to cope with this crisis going forward.
For total clarification, we should have 3 figures. The amount of ICU's in the country, the cumulative number of people who have been on ICU's and the current number of people on ICU's. If only some journalist could ask this question

Loafing Oaf

darjeeling wrote: »

As was pointed out by Jeremy Hunt, former UK Health Secretary, lockdowns are a blunt instrument. We can do a lot better.

He proposed continuing to try to suppress the epidemic by using mass, fast testing .

Come back to me when Ireland has the capacity to do that...

deisedevil

Curious_Case wrote: »

Unless there's a significant footfall I wouldn't bother.

Why not?

gmisk

darjeeling wrote: »

As was pointed out by Jeremy Hunt, former UK Health Secretary, lockdowns are a blunt instrument. We can do a lot better.

He proposed continuing to try to suppress the epidemic by using mass, fast testing and contact tracing, the idea being presumably to wait it out until a vaccine is available.

An alternative would be to tolerate it spreading in the low risk population while trying actually to do a proper job of putting a barrier round the vulnerable.
This is riskier and hasn't worked anywhere so far due to lack of PPE, insufficient training, mixing of infected and uninfected patients / home residents, and lack of testing.
Consequently there have been at least 21 hospital outbreaks and 24 nursing home outbreaks here, according to HSE stats.
For it to work would require fast turnaround testing of care staff and patients/home residents for current/past infection, and appropriate PPE and distancing in all care settings - home help, nursing homes, and hospitals.

Either way, we will also need to keep reconfiguring the health service to increase capacity for treating COVID-19 cases and to isolate them from the rest of patients.

Lockdowns are the only thing that seems to have worked in other countries.

I wouldn't be taking advice on things from Jeremy Hunt....the numbers in the UK are not looking good...despite them seemingly not counting deaths in nursing homes towards their figures and testing very few per head.

Lwaker.

deisedevil wrote: »

Why not?

ES have enough to be doing

Stheno

I dont get the negativity on here tbh

Yesterday we had tested over 30000 people in total to date

Today the UK had tested just over 150000

So if they had tested at the same rate as us, with a population 12 times our size the figure would be 360000

They've not even done half that.

Their death rate today of 563 would equate to approx 40 deaths here today, not the 14 reported

Our population are compliant for the most part with restrictions

The deputy CMO today said signs were positive

Wtf is up with all the bickering??

Fr Tod Umptious

deisedevil wrote: »

Why not?

Because maybe it's just a small business trying to stay in business.

What type of business are they ?

Are they employing anyone ?

Are they doing much business ?

Curious_Case

blackcard wrote: »

In some countries, the number of people requiring ICU's exceeded the number of ICU's available. As they weren't getting the required treatment, this lead to dramatic increases in the death rate. It would be very informative to know the amount of ICU's available versus the amount that are currently in use. This would let us know the spare capacity, if any, and inform us regarding our ability to cope with this crisis going forward.
So the current amount of people with ICU's is something that we need to know

I think they should report a figure that isn't ambiguous in any way

I want to know what the most recent number of available (unoccupied) ICU's is ?

And also, how many (if any) non Covid-19 patients are being denied an ICU

gmisk

MarkY91 wrote: »

What type of business?

There's a local dog grooming shop still open near to me.... allowed to bring a dog for a haircut but not yourself..... bizarre.

They might be getting around it by selling dog food?

RugbyLad11

rusty the athlete wrote: »

And anyone like you with such ridiculous ideas in a lunatic asylum.

You're the lunatic if you think the lockdown will last for 18 months, because is probably how long it will take for a vaccine.

Placing people over 66 and people with underlying medical conditions while everyone goes back to work is the most logical solution.

BrianD3

Just Saying wrote: »

With all the uncertainty about numbers of tests and the delays in getting test results I think the daily death totals and the rate of upward trend in same assume greater importance.

The daily death rate and the 3 and 5 day moving averages of same are not showing the rapid increases at this point in the graph as .might have been expected.

This gives me a lot of hope that we are on the right track.While we have testing issues we are still per head of population a lot better than our larger European neighbours.

The daily death rate here is trending towards a substantial flattening of the curve.While there is normally a time lag between new cases and deaths it would indicate that closing of pubs etc ,large scale and earlier adherence to social distancing compared to other countries and also the use of contact tracing have combined to prevent the rapid increase in deaths witnessed in other countries.

I'm hopeful too however I think that factors that have little or nothing to do with deliberate action by authorities will help us a lot in this country. The related issues of sparse population density, one off housing, car dependency, poor public transport - generally regarded as bad things but major pluses in a pandemic. I wonder will anyone try to claim credit for these. The likes of An Taisce may be keeping quiet for a while :P

Even taking account of my hope for a reasonably good outcome, I am more concerned by the day about how Covid-19 will affect nursing homes and that this could be yet another healthcare scandal in the making.

Public nursing homes charge about 1800-2200 per week, in most cases residents don't pay anything near that as the taxpayer subsidises the cost under the Fair Deal scheme. But that 1800-2200 is deemed to be the cost of care. Private nursing homes which are profit driven generally cost much less. I know from experience that the care provided in both public and private can leave a lot to be desired. Also, thanks to the shambles that is home care in this country, there are people in nursing homes who would have been able to manage at home had they received some help from the state. This will likely result in the deaths of some people who will be sitting ducks for Covid-19 in a nursing home when they could have avoided it at home.

munsterlegend

Gynoid wrote: »

Earlier I had a look at some media reports from March 4th when we were beginning to hear about issues in Ireland. This was a group of 4, a family back from Italy, all positive for coronavirus. It was in addition to one other case we had heard of, I think.
It was 4 weeks ago.
The local schools said they would close, but only until March 13th. Politicians and health officials said just restrict some classes for a few days.
The Deputy CMO said he saw no reason to advise against punters going to Cheltenham. Tony Holohan said he saw no reason to ban St Patricks day parades, and that schools and universities should remain open.
Italy had 3000 cases on record and 100 deaths.

4 weeks later Italy has 110,000 cases on record and more than 13,000 deaths.
We have had 85 deaths and unknown case numbers due mainly to testing issues.

It has been a very strange 4 weeks.

The lesson is prevention is better than cure.

Oh and don’t believe a word from the Chinese.

babybuilder

fullstop wrote: »

So you don’t think any other government in the word would or should have wanted test kits 5 weeks ago...just little old ireland ploughing a lone furrow? **** me the drivel spouted in here :rolleyes:

I'm not making it up. Check back. As far as the virologist who said one or two cases.

Reckless Abandonment

If the numbers do start to drop in the next 2 weeks they will have to start letting things open up again in a controlled manner. Then if the numbers look to be going bad, another lockdown. Can't see any other way around this.

blackcard

Can anyone imagine the cost of health insurance next year?

RugbyLad11

wakka12 wrote: »

People over 65 and with health conditions is about 1/5 - 1/4 of the entire population

Yeah but not many people over 65 are working now are they? Besides 1/4 of the entire population in isolation is better than 3/4 of the entire population in isolation as it is now

Reckless Abandonment

blackcard wrote: »

Can anyone imagine the cost of health insurance next year?

Cost of food could be a bigger issue.

niallo27

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Are you aware a large proportion of over 65s, even more so the most vulnerable ones, live with children and grandchildren?

A large proportion, are you sure. I would presume the majority leave on their own. My own parents are over 65 and live on their own. Most of my mates are the same.

Xertz

blackcard wrote: »

Can anyone imagine the cost of health insurance next year?

It potentially won't have much impact on insurers as the majority of the costs are being borne by the public systems and many insurable procedures are just on hold.

I would suspect the bigger issue when this is over will be dealing with massive waiting lists as they've paused what were already extremely long lists and capacity for elective treatments has disappeared entirely.

I would suspect that's where the pressure will be, not on insurers. Also, fall off in employment tends to result in less people buying plans, which may have some impact. In an insurance fund if the younger, healthier cohort all drop out (which happens in an economic slump) then the overall burden rises.

That's one of the main reasons I think, if we're not going to go down the Beveridge NHS type model, we should probably be looking at a universal public insurance model as is common in continental Europe. It really makes no sense to have cherry picking private insurers or instability in a system that will end up losing subscribers every time there's an economic glitch.

What we have at the moment makes little sense - if the economy tightens, people will rely on a tight public system anyway. It would make more sense to just have a single tier public system which would have way more resources and leave fully private insurance as a niche product at the fringes like in the UK and elsewhere.

Talisman

Sittingpretty wrote: »

I just learned of the death of a parent in my child’s school with COVID 19.

Age 42

Is that in D7? I have a message from my son's school which names an individual who has died but I didn't recognise the name.

pjohnson

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Yeah but not many people over 65 are working now are they? Besides 1/4 of the entire population in isolation is better than 3/4 of the entire population in isolation as it is now

Will you compensate everyone forced out of work with your plan?

Loafing Oaf

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

If the numbers do start to drop in the next 2 weeks they will have to start letting things open up again in a controlled manner. Then if the numbers look to be going bad, another lockdown. Can't see any other way around this.

How about maintaining the lockdown until the number of new cases per day has fallen to single figures (according to extensive and reliable testing), even if that takes 2-3 months?

fritzelly

Talisman wrote: »

Is that in D7? I have a message from my son's school which names an individual who has died but I didn't recognise the name.

Why are they texting people with the deceased's name?

Widdensushi

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How about maintaining the lockdown until the number of new cases per day has fallen to single figures (according to extensive and reliable testing), even if that takes 2-3 months?

that's years away, how would you pay for it ?

niallo27

pjohnson wrote: »

Will you compensate everyone forced out of work with your plan?

You mean like they are doing now with all the people that were laid off.

RugbyLad11

gmisk wrote: »

So like someone else said 1/4 to 1/5th of the population....good luck with that.

Under house arrest when you are free to go out and exercise, go to supermarket and chemist...

Good luck with what? if they are in the vulnerable age group and don't adhere to the isolation request then it is their own fault if they get the virus.

They will be told to isolate for their safety..

munsterlegend

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How about maintaining the lockdown until the number of new cases per day has fallen to single figures (according to extensive and reliable testing), even if that takes 2-3 months?

It’s an interesting science question. We have no vaccine so want people to get it but not in huge numbers all at once. I wonder how long though an economy can be put on hold for that to be achieved.

MarkY91

gmisk wrote: »

They might be getting around it by selling dog food?

But all supermarkets sell dog food.

munsterlegend

I have seen a lot of elderly people out walking locally here by themselves and with their dogs.

pjohnson

niallo27 wrote: »

You mean like they are doing now with all the people that were laid off.

Thats only a fraction of their wage and its applied to all. If everyone EXCEPT those with asthma, cardiac issues etc. are allowed return to work but they are discriminated against they should recieve the full wage there were on before being forcibly removed.

niallo27

MarkY91 wrote: »

But all supermarkets sell dog food.

Only cheap ****e that you really shouldn't give your dog.

scamalert

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How about maintaining the lockdown until the number of new cases per day has fallen to single figures (according to extensive and reliable testing), even if that takes 2-3 months?years

fixed that for you.

Curious_Case

deisedevil wrote: »

Why not?

Because it's the footfall factor that constitutes the element of risk.

Some of the fair, generous, considerate, charitable, friendly banks are open too.

otnomart

otnomart wrote: »

The number of tests in Germany had been a mistery for a long while,
I finally found it buried in the German report from Robert Koch - page 6, section titled Labortestungen.
Google Translate: "The feedback from the laboratories showed that 918,460 samples have been tested so far from the beginning of the collection up to and including calendar week 13/2020, of which 64,906 were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2."
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html

Looks like a lot around this people are reading headlines and not the actual articles perhaps or just posting stuff for a way to get some dig politically.

1800_Ladladlad

A Covid-19 Observation and Quarantine Facility on Galang Island, Batam city, Indonesiais expected to be completed on April 5.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMfl4s1iik8

Source

Reckless Abandonment

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How about maintaining the lockdown until the number of new cases per day has fallen to single figures (according to extensive and reliable testing), even if that takes 2-3 months?

That could take 3/4 months. The economy couldn't take that. And like it or not the economy is vital to us all.

Government and the HSE doing a great job of handling this crisis it must be said. More importantly Irish people have responded brilliantly.

munsterlegend

6 wrote: »

Government and the HSE doing a great job of handling this crisis it must be said. Irish people have responded brilliantly.

Thanks Simon(x2).

MarkY91

niallo27 wrote: »

Only cheap ****e that you really shouldn't give your dog.

I don't own a dog so don't know the difference but it sounds a bit unbelievable that loads of different brands of dog food from the supermarket isn't good enough for you dog and only some hipster, probably vegan dog grooming bought food is good enough.

Talisman

fritzelly wrote: »

Why are they texting people with the deceased's name?

Technically they didn't text, it's a message on the school app, not that it makes much difference.

niallo27

pjohnson wrote: »

Thats only a fraction of their wage and its applied to all. If everyone EXCEPT those with asthma, cardiac issues etc. are allowed return to work but they are discriminated against they should recieve the full wage there were on before being forcibly removed.

Well if you think that, are we not all being discriminated right now by being removed from our jobs and receive our full wage. I do think they should compensated in some way though.

mick987

Stheno wrote: »

I dont get the negativity on here tbh

Yesterday we had tested over 30000 people in total to date

Today the UK had tested just over 150000

So if they had tested at the same rate as us, with a population 12 times our size the figure would be 360000

They've not even done half that.

Their death rate today of 563 would equate to approx 40 deaths here today, not the 14 reported

Our population are compliant for the most part with restrictions

The deputy CMO today said signs were positive

Wtf is up with all the bickering??

Who cares how many die, the old we are not as bad as the Brits argument.

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks Simon(x2).

pjohnson

niallo27 wrote: »

Well if you think that, are we not all being discriminated right now by being removed from our jobs and receive our full wage. I do think they should compensated in some way though.

Everyone is being treated the same so no discrimination. If you force people out of the workforce permanently as a policy then thats a problem.

niallo27

MarkY91 wrote: »

I don't own a dog so don't know the difference but it sounds a bit unbelievable that loads of different brands of dog food from the supermarket isn't good enough for you dog and only some hipster, probably vegan dog grooming bought food is good enough.

I spend about 70 euro a month on a 15kg bag, if you cant even bother spending that you really shouldn't have a dog. The supermarket stuff is awful. It really is awful stuff.

PokeHerKing

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

That could take 3/4 months. The economy couldn't take that. And like it or not the economy is vital to us all.

This is happening the world over, reopening before we and the world have this under control would be pointless and stupid.

It took Hubei /China three months to get this under control under much more draconian measures. So we'll be doing well if this under control the world over in three months.

jams100

Am I the only person who thinks this isn't really going anywhere until we have a vaccine? A lot of positive comments on here but at the end of the day its 208 new cases even with all the restrictions (I know the lockdown figures) will take a bit of time to be reflected but from what I saw people were social distancing in general quite well from well over 10 days ago now. Considering the global nature even if we get it under control we're likely to get imported cases or when we return to some sense of normality it will flare up again. When will the balancing point come from people dying from covid and maybe mental health issues/other issues due to hospitals essentially being shut down for diagnostics etc. Just to add I'm in support of the current restrictions before someone has a go and know why its needed just how long can it go on for? a Month? 2 months? indefinitely?

otnomart

France has 6000 in ICU today.
They have been able to move patients by high speed TGV train to Regions less under pressure (similar to Italy, which is using military planes with biohazard equipment)
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronavirus-509-morts-de-plus-en-24-heures-6017-personnes-hospitalisees-en-reanimation-1886536.html

lbj666

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Good luck with what? if they are in the vulnerable age group and don't adhere to the isolation request then it is their own fault if they get the virus.

They will be told to isolate for their safety..

Its not just their safety, people of that age maybe happy with the risk and may have come to terms with the possibility of meeting their maker, but the health service wont thank them if they show up in hospital all at once.

RugbyLad11

pjohnson wrote: »

Will you compensate everyone forced out of work with your plan?

You mean like what is happening at the moment??