CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Strazdas

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Is it safe to say that our new cases has peaked already? What is the surge going to look like..seems like it will be quiet manageable for now.

Experts think new cases will start to drop but deaths will stay high for the next ten days or so.

New cases is the one to watch......if the numbers start to fall day on day, we're in business.

Kermit.de.frog

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Is it safe to say that our new cases has peaked already? What is the surge going to look like..seems like it will be quiet manageable for now.

The samples are too small. They are not finding enough cases due to not completing enough tests (as they admitted at the press conference this evening) and thus there is not much to say really.

That's why the figures are so volatile. 300 cases could be 100 or 800 cases the following day.

We were told 15,000 tests today would be being done around this point. Even though they changed the guidelines that could still have been the case.

Today 1,500 tests.

It's not a big enough data set.

timmy_mallet

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Exactly this. A lot of posters here are still in denial of how serious things are and will be.

I would argue, so are the lockdown fans. Take your pick, a functioning society and a world to return or the death rate we have. Either or.

cameramonkey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Chinese county says in lockdown after coronavirus cases

https://news.trust.org/item/20200401151444-l11ny/




But China's fixed...

I thought China was not reporting on cases and that all their news was fake about Covid. Why do you now believe Chinese propaganda?

Arghus

I have to laugh at the naivete of people who say how can they impose stricter restrictions, as if this is as restricted as it gets.

This is restrictive, unbelievably so. But it's nowhere near what it could be. You could be in for a shock in a week or two. I hope not, but who knows.

There's plenty of people still out walking everywhere, there isn't really that visable of a presence of cops, you can go as often and as far as you like to the shops and plenty of factories and workplaces that aren't really essential have massaged that interpretation of the rules to stay open.

Harsher would mean only bare bones essential services staying open - chemists, foodstores, perhaps some banks. All restaurants closing, even for takeaway, remaining places of work except for those in the medical industry being closed. No more 2km walks. Maybe even no more walks outside full stop. And limitations on numbers of visits to foodshop, with only one person per household allowed. And cops and the army really up in your face asking you all about your business. That's a full lock down.

ITman88

shocksy wrote: »

Absolute nonsense :rolleyes:

What’s absolute nonsense??

http://jvalue.co.uk/papers/J-value-assessment-of-combating-Covid-19-Thomas-23.3.2020.pdf

cameramonkey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The samples are too small. They are not finding enough cases due to not completing enough tests (as they admitted at the press conference this evening) and thus there is not much to say really.

That's why the figures are so volatile. 300 cases could be 100 or 800 cases the following day.

We were told 15,000 tests today would be being done around this point. Even though they changed the guidelines that could still have been the case.

Today 1,500 tests.

It's not a big enough data set.

You have no idea how many test were done today, i doubt the HSE even know given their record on testing.

Away With The Fairies

Strazdas wrote: »

I suspect the people who want a year long lockdown are anti-social, misfits, loners etc who don't even like human company or socialising.

Most govts realise that shutting down a society for a year and placing the entire population under house arrest would be catastrophic.

Oh lord

I enjoy time to myself but the last thing I want to see is the economy being fcuked. But we cannot let our health service get overwhelmed and have people die. How do you not see that? So you can enjoy a drink down at the pub with your mates?

shocksy

Strazdas wrote: »

New cases is the one to watch......if the numbers start to fall day on day, we're in business.

New cases aren't worth a sh!t at the moment because there's not enough testing going on to provide enough relevant figures.

The only thing worth watching at the moment is figures for death and ICU.

Funsterdelux

People dont need the economy
The economy needs people.

But I wouldnt be happy about an economic collapse.

Arghus

ITman88 wrote: »

An irony exists in your sarcasm that has gone over your head

Bro, I'm completely right.

Away With The Fairies

Arghus wrote: »

I have to laugh at the naivete of people who say how can they impose stricter restrictions, as if this is as restricted as it gets.

This is restrictive, unbelievably so. But it's nowhere near what it could be. You could be in for a shock in a week or two. I hope not, but who knows.

There's plenty of people still out walking everywhere, there isn't really that visable of a presence of cops, you can go as often and as far as you like to the shops and plenty of factories and workplaces that aren't really essential have massaged that interpretation of the rules to stay open.

Harsher would mean only bare bones essential services staying open - chemists, foodstores, perhaps some banks. All restaurants closing, even for takeaway, remaining places of work except for those in the medical industry being closed. No more 2km walks. Maybe even no more walks outside full stop. And limitations on numbers of visits to foodshop, with only one person per household allowed. And cops and the army really up in your face asking you all about your business. That's a full lock down.

That's exactly what's needed if people don't take this seriously.

jesus_thats_gre

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Chinese county says in lockdown after coronavirus cases

https://news.trust.org/item/20200401151444-l11ny/


But China's fixed...

You do understand that there is no fixed until there is a vaccine or the critical mass have had the virus?

It might be worthwhile understanding that. If only to manage your own expectations of what will happen here in the next 2/4/8/16 weeks.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

u

Even though they changed the guidelines that could still have been the case.

What has the changed guidelines got to do with their capacity to test? It's sole purpose was to reduce the backlog of lower priority tests and focus attention on higher risk individuals.

kilkenny31

Charles Babbage wrote: »

No, you need to know the numbers tested.

Testing is running into the ground for lack of materials.

But I think it's clear from the numbers in ICU that our testing is relatively good. Say 10% of all cases end up in ICU. We have 126 people who needed ICU and allowing for a lag of 7 days or so between the time someone was diagnosed and needed ICU is around a week that means that 7 days ago our diagnosed cases should have been around 1200-1300. These are just back of envelope numbers but I think our confirmed cases is not wide off the mark, maybe it doesn't account for asymptomatic people but they are unlikely to need hospital care and because of the lockdown they are unlikely to transmit to too many people,

Strazdas

timmy_mallet wrote: »

I would argue, so are the lockdown fans. Take your pick, a functioning society and a world to return or the death rate we have. Either or.

Problem with permanent lockdown (as the nuts on Twitter want) is you no longer have a functioning society or economy. It can only ever be a temporary measure (virus or no virus).....countries would literally run out of money and become bankrupt.

ITman88

Arghus wrote: »

Bro, I'm completely right.

Regarding the magic beans comment,
We will need those to cover a lengthy lockdown😂

ZX7R

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Exactly this. A lot of posters here are still in denial of how serious things are and will be.

Most posters are not in denial of how serious it is
They just look at the information different than you.
One of Leo's speachses to the nation
He said we can't stop this we can try hold it back flatten the curve
It was never about eradicating the virus it about limiting the initial spike.

threeball

cameramonkey wrote: »

I thought China was not reporting on cases and that all their news was fake about Covid. Why do you now believe Chinese propaganda?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coronavirus-china-hid-extent-of-outbreak-us-intelligence-reportedly-says.html

Its not even slightly believable that they halted a virus that didn't even exist and they knew nothing about in less time and with less cases in the worlds most densely populated cities faster and easier than pretty much any other large nation.

Gynoid

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

I think that eventually something like this will be happen. But people need time to work out the logistics of it. It’s really complex. It would not be just covid19 patients who would need to be isolated. So for now, very strict restrictions should be place until it’s figured out how to protect the at-risk. It is a blunt instrument but whilst information is still being gathered, it’s all we have.

I agree with you ODB, that this blunt instrument is all we have until we know more.
And one of the things we really need to know more about is the long term effects in recovered patients.
There does not seem to be big sample research on recovered people but in the small few studies existing many of those who ended up in ICU have been left with pulmonary fibrosis, which can significantly impair lung function.

For those posters, not you, who advocate letting it rip through the stronger part of the herd*, they do not seem to be taking into account that many strong people who get could be badly damaged even when they most likely recover. Which will also be a huge economic and social cost over a very long time.

* I have learned to really dislike certain words in the past 4 weeks, some being herd, bots and riddled!

Strazdas

shocksy wrote: »

New cases aren't worth a sh!t at the moment because there's not enough testing going on to provide enough relevant figures.

The only thing worth watching at the moment is figures for death and ICU.

It's not true that the testing system has fallen apart. It's just that it's experiencing some delays at the moment.....talk of it grinding to a halt are a total exaggeration.

Deaths are not a good indicator of what the direction of travel is.

fly_agaric

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Yeah I’m struggling to wrap my head around it. Even 18 months is optimistic in terms of vaccines, that’s pushing it through at massive pace, but there is so much at stake so who knows.

It will have to be some kind of innovation in rapid testing or some kind of treatment available, hopefully one of the drugs in the solidarity trial will bear fruit and make improve outcomes.

OTOH, from considering actions of a few countries in Asia that seem to be able to get somewhat of a handle on it (?) + have less restictions placed on day to day life than we have at the moment I think we'd need

• Capability to test for the disease in larger numbers + get fast results out (under a day say?)
• Ability to track and trace all movements of cases and their contacts through mobile phone records and other highly invasive personal data on everyone. A "Big brother knows best" scenario (and to think of all the fits thrown and legal connuptions here over the comparatively very tame MyGovID/Public services card)
• Yet more invasions of civil liberties, possibly isolating the infected & their contacts away from their homes whether they like it or not, restricting travel in & out heavily (once we have some control of the disease here) with health checks and quarantines and the like
• Massive investments in and sweeping reforms of the health service to efficiently manage all of the above on an ongoing basis while the disease is circulating/there is no vaccine or treatments etc

It is not easy IMO. All of above would be impossible in Ireland normally but if there's no other solutions I suppose you might see European countries reaching for these approaches in next few months.

growleaves

Arghus wrote: »

I have to laugh at the naivete of people who say how can they impose stricter restrictions, as if this is as restricted as it gets.

This is restrictive, unbelievably so. But it's nowhere near what it could be. You could be in for a shock in a week or two. I hope not, but who knows.

There's plenty of people still out walking everywhere, there isn't really that visable of a presence of cops, you can go as often and as far as you like to the shops and plenty of factories and workplaces that aren't really essential have massaged that interpretation of the rules to stay open.

Harsher would mean only bare bones essential services staying open - chemists, foodstores, perhaps some banks. All restaurants closing, even for takeaway, remaining places of work except for those in the medical industry being closed. No more 2km walks. Maybe even no more walks outside full stop. And limitations on numbers of visits to foodshop, with only one person per household allowed. And cops and the army really up in your face asking you all about your business. That's a full lock down.

Almost from the beginning there were people begging for a full North Korea-style military lockdown and it has seemed to me like a real possibility since.

We don't have a tradition in this country of guards and soldiers bullying citizens and pointing guns in their faces (bar the Tans) but now unfortunately its clear many people wouldn't even perceive why that might not be a good thing. After all, you or someone you know could get sick.

Covid19

Hi folks. How is everyone holding up?

Rows Grower

BanditLuke wrote: »

The same Luke O'Neill who was laughing and joking a few weeks back on the late late telling us it was nothing to worry about?

I honestly don't watch the Late Late Show and only saw the man for the first time ever in my life this evening on that interview on the Six One News.

I thought it was an upbeat and positive interview at a time when it is badly needed.

Ficheall

Stheno wrote: »

I dont get the negativity on here tbh

Yesterday we had tested over 30000 people in total to date

Today the UK had tested just over 150000

So if they had tested at the same rate as us, with a population 12 times our size the figure would be 360000

They've not even done half that.

Their death rate today of 563 would equate to approx 40 deaths here today, not the 14 reported

Our population are compliant for the most part with restrictions

The deputy CMO today said signs were positive

Wtf is up with all the bickering??

Well, if you think comparing with other countries is the way to go, you can easily do so with pictures: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
It shows the death rate x days after the 10th death. At that point, the UK definitely had more deaths than us, you're right. So did China and Turkey. EVERYWHERE else did better than we are doing 5 days in.



You can also check normalized per population. Spain, Belgium, San Marino and Andorra are the ONLY countries who were doing as badly on that front as we are.


I don't get the positivity, tbh.

threeball

Gynoid wrote: »

I agree with you ODB, that this blunt instrument is all we have until we know more.
And one of the things we really need to know more about is the long term effects in recovered patients.
There does not seem to be big sample research on recovered people but in the small few studies existing many of those who ended up in ICU have been left with pulmonary fibrosis, which can significantly impair lung function.

For those posters, not you, who advocate letting it rip through the stronger part of the herd*, they do not seem to be taking into account that many strong people who get could be badly damaged even when they most likely recover. Which will also be a huge economic and social cost over a very long time.

* I have learned to really dislike certain words in the past 4 weeks, some being herd, bots and riddled!

Despite the damage there is no alternative bar locking down the country completely, nothing in or out bar goods, not even truck drivers could accompany their load. Then lock everyone in their homes for a month and wait. You would remain isolated from the rest of the world for perhaps 12 to 18 months at best. You can see it happening in China.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Gynoid wrote: »

I agree with you ODB, that this blunt instrument is all we have until we know more.
And one of the things we really need to know more about is the long term effects in recovered patients.
There does not seem to be big sample research on recovered people but in the small few studies existing many of those who ended up in ICU have been left with pulmonary fibrosis, which can significantly impair lung function.

For those posters, not you, who advocate letting it rip through the stronger part of the herd*, they do not seem to be taking into account that many strong people who get could be badly damaged even when they most likely recover. Which will also be a huge economic and social cost over a very long time.

* I have learned to really dislike certain words in the past 4 weeks, some being herd, bots and riddled!

Yeah, I saw an interview with a critical care doctor who said that ventilators appear not to be working as effectively on people with covid-related pneumonia as the more commonplace kind of pneumonia. That suggests that this virus really badly affects the lungs.

ITman88

growleaves wrote: »

Almost from the beginning there were people begging for a full North Korea-style military lockdown and it has seemed to me like a real possibility since.

We don't have a tradition in this country of guards and soldiers bullying citizens and pointing guns in their faces (bar the Tans) but now unfortunately its clear many people wouldn't even perceive why that might not be a good thing. After all, you or someone you know could get sick.

It’s work checking out what Lord Sumption (ex Supreme Court judge one UK) has to say about the measures in the UK.
Nigel Farage also commented on the measures but many don’t consider his opinion

Cork Boy 53

Arghus wrote: »

I have to laugh at the naivete of people who say how can they impose stricter restrictions, as if this is as restricted as it gets.

This is restrictive, unbelievably so. But it's nowhere near what it could be. You could be in for a shock in a week or two. I hope not, but who knows.

There's plenty of people still out walking everywhere, there isn't really that visable of a presence of cops, you can go as often and as far as you like to the shops and plenty of factories and workplaces that aren't really essential have massaged that interpretation of the rules to stay open.

Harsher would mean only bare bones essential services staying open - chemists, foodstores, perhaps some banks. All restaurants closing, even for takeaway, remaining places of work except for those in the medical industry being closed. No more 2km walks. Maybe even no more walks outside full stop. And limitations on numbers of visits to foodshop, with only one person per household allowed. And cops and the army really up in your face asking you all about your business. That's a full lock down.

TBH ideally we should really have been at that stage 3 weeks ago. Obviously resources/manpower to enforce it are an issue.

Arghus

growleaves wrote: »

Almost from the beginning there were people begging for a full North Korea-style military lockdown and it has seemed to me like a real possibility since.

We don't have a tradition in this country of guards and soldiers bullying citizens and pointing guns in their faces (bar the Tans) but now unfortunately its clear many people wouldn't even perceive why that might not be a good thing. After all, you or someone you know could get sick.

I'm not saying that I want to see any of things I've outlined actually happen.

JPCN1

gmisk wrote: »

Lockdowns are the only thing that seems to have worked in other countries.

I wouldn't be taking advice on things from Jeremy Hunt....the numbers in the UK are not looking good...despite them seemingly not counting deaths in nursing homes towards their figures and testing very few per head.

Singapore is not locked down...

ITman88

JPCN1 wrote: »

Singapore is not locked down...

And not remotely so, schools and business still open.

threeball

Ficheall wrote: »

Well, if you think comparing with other countries is the way to go, you can easily do so with pictures: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
It shows the death rate x days after the 10th death. At that point, the UK definitely had more deaths than us, you're right. So did China and Turkey. EVERYWHERE else did better than we are doing 5 days in.



You can also check normalized per population. Spain, Belgium, San Marino and Andorra are the ONLY countries who were doing as badly on that front as we are.


I don't get the positivity, tbh.

The UK has 25 times our dead per day at 12 times our population and thats not the full numbers either. Their numbers are rising day on day. Ours go up then back down then up and down again. Our rate of growth is not exponential and we're not far away from seeing the effects of our first measures. They are 2 weeks away.

Away With The Fairies

Covid19 wrote: »

Hi folks. How is everyone holding up?

It would be great if you just fcuked off.

niallo27

Gynoid wrote: »

I agree with you ODB, that this blunt instrument is all we have until we know more.
And one of the things we really need to know more about is the long term effects in recovered patients.
There does not seem to be big sample research on recovered people but in the small few studies existing many of those who ended up in ICU have been left with pulmonary fibrosis, which can significantly impair lung function.

For those posters, not you, who advocate letting it rip through the stronger part of the herd*, they do not seem to be taking into account that many strong people who get could be badly damaged even when they most likely recover. Which will also be a huge economic and social cost over a very long time.

* I have learned to really dislike certain words in the past 4 weeks, some being herd, bots and riddled!

That's all fair enough and I agree with most of it, but a full lockdown long term is not viable either. Either way is going be a disaster but I think the conversation should be had. Forget about the economy if you want, what about the social aspect, the loneliness, the depression, the poverty. We are ****ed whatever we do.

bassy

are the stopping selling drink from tomorrow ?

owlbethere

For the full lockdowners - we have a nice balance of restrictions (what's needed) and some freedom (going out walking, doing a food shop). There is a balance. A full lockdown would never work here and I don't think there would be any need for a full lockdown because a lot of Ireland is very rural and isolated and that will stand to us in time.

The restrictions in place are being adhered to by so many. Villages and towns are empty. This is Galways shop street. Its deserted aside from a few people walking up or down during the days. If this virus wasn't around, the place would be busy.

If there's people breaking the restriction rules, it means the problem lies with the policing of the rules.

Screenshot of the CladdaghCam taken at about 8pm

Covid19

Covid19 wrote: »

Hi folks. How is everyone holding up?

Jeez we were just talking about you!

Duke of Url

Read in the paper today that in the UK they expect up to 80% of COVID19 patients put on ventilators could die.

Didn’t think it would be that high.

Covid19

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

It would be great if you just fcuked off.

Lol. Personally, I'm amazed that this username was available! The Joy of having a bored 11 year old in the house. "Hey dad, I wonder if..."

ITman88

Arghus wrote: »

I have to laugh at the naivete of people who say how can they impose stricter restrictions, as if this is as restricted as it gets.

This is restrictive, unbelievably so. But it's nowhere near what it could be. You could be in for a shock in a week or two. I hope not, but who knows.

There's plenty of people still out walking everywhere, there isn't really that visable of a presence of cops, you can go as often and as far as you like to the shops and plenty of factories and workplaces that aren't really essential have massaged that interpretation of the rules to stay open.

Harsher would mean only bare bones essential services staying open - chemists, foodstores, perhaps some banks. All restaurants closing, even for takeaway, remaining places of work except for those in the medical industry being closed. No more 2km walks. Maybe even no more walks outside full stop. And limitations on numbers of visits to foodshop, with only one person per household allowed. And cops and the army really up in your face asking you all about your business. That's a full lock down.

You have not even the slightest clue how health related supply chains work.

People currently working are worker’s directly effecting critical services.

What you are suggesting is absolutely ludicrous, and I can assure not happening in Italy.

If you put all resources we have we could possibly execute your idea in Dublin and Cork, no way could it be enforced rurally. In fact in couldn’t be enforced anywhere.
It’s about as restrictive as it will get

Sober Crappy Chemis

bassy wrote: »

are the stopping selling drink from tomorrow ?

Whoooahh whooooah whooooooooooaaaaaaaah there horse...

ITman88

bassy wrote: »

are the stopping selling drink from tomorrow ?

April fool joke

Danzy

JPCN1 wrote: »

Singapore is not locked down...

Singapore is a tiny city State where chewing gum is a criminal offence and the police will beat the tar out of you for any minor infringement, before the Judge comes down on you like a sledge.

They also went through something similar with a previous Chinese flu outbreak, SARS 1.

Kermit.de.frog

Israel now asking their population to wear masks in public.

The United States may make it obligatory.

Europe: They don't work (Europe only says this because we don't have the number of masks required for our health services, the real reason the authorities jump up and down when it's mentioned)

fullstop

Level 42 wrote: »

Ya it'll be relaxed in 9 days allright what planet are you on

In the space of a day he’s gone from saying nothing will change for months, to now saying the lockdown could be relaxed next week!! Rollercoaster ride this is

randy hickey

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

It would be great if you just fcuked off.

Post of the Pandemic.

Arghus

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

TBH ideally we should really have been at that stage 3 weeks ago. Obviously resources/manpower to enforce it are an issue.

From the perspective of going all out to contain the spread, absolutely.

But it's a fair point that those in charge were making at the time. Once you go into that severe of a lock down, how long can it be sustained? People are already getting antsy and this is basically nothing.

And I don't think the full picture of the severity and enormity of the crisis was sinking in with people. Look at all the ejits in here still in denial. Imagine enforcing that on them three weeks ago.

And the political capital wouldn't have existed for the government to enforce such draconian measures - going from zero restrictions to total lock down, without any ramping up between.

And the state doesn't have the resources to police that form of lock down indefinitely either.

threeball

Duke of Url wrote: »

Read in the paper today that in the UK they expect up to 80% of COVID19 patients put on ventilators could die.

Didn’t think it would be that high.

In italy it was 50% chance you wouldn't come off it. 80% is high, either they bought really sh1t ventilators or they are pushing up the numbers to worst case scenario so they can claim victory in the end.

Look at Trump, he wouldn't even say the numbers the other night live on TV, asked his medical experts to do it instead. Its bad for election prospects.

Gynoid

On the 4 week theme, (sorry it has bugged me today), but 4 weeks ago UK had its first covid death and recorded about 100 infections in total.