CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Snow Garden

freshpopcorn wrote: »

There's a guy near me who's in his seventies and he's protesting because the church is closed!

April fools surely? Even the 'devout' are not that thick

Downlinz

tobefrank321 wrote: »

At a certain stage we may need to get imaginative in the west - not the strong point of western governments unfortunately.

We may need to look at controlled herd immunity as oppposed to the uncontrolled attempt in the UK.

So we give healthy citizens with no underlying conditions a low exposure to covid 19. There seems to be some evidence that a high viral load is dangerous to healthy individuals but a low load may be safer.

We give citizens the choice of low dose exposure. They would have to isolate of course for 2-3 weeks possibly in one of those large centres like the city west hotel. Test them after 10 days to confirm they are positive, then again every 10 days until they are negative.

This would be a big undertaking but at least there'd be some control of the spread.

In the absence of a vaccine this might be the only way to gradually get us out of a lockdown. And it might be the best option for healthcare staff.

It would be insanity considering the risk of death and suggestion survivors can suffer from permanent lung damage which possibly reduces lifespan.

The purpose of a lockdown is to stop community spread and bring it back down to small, controlled clusters from traceable sources. At which point we can mostly go back to regular life with some precautions.

I don't know what the hard on some people have with this idea that we can't stop the virus and must all get ourselves infected at some point. That's not happening in any of the Asian countries at all. They locked down, contained it and moved on with their lives.

Professor Moriarty

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think they'd need volunteers for it and conduct studies particularly around the issue of low load infection.

I am fairly sure a large number would volunteer. You could even pay them to take part.

Uncontrolled spread doesn't work and total lockdown is a bit of a sledgehammer to drive a nail approach with no exit strategy.

The chance of death is always there. I wouldn't want any family member to be given a dose of Covid-19. Not for any money.

FishOnABike

Ficheall wrote: »

Per capita, at 8 days after their first death (where Ireland is now), Spain, Belgium, San Marino and Andorra were doing worse than we are. Every other country was doing better.


For total deaths, at 5 days after the 10th death (where Ireland is now), China, Turkey and the UK were doing worse than we are. Every other country was doing better.




Okay, I give up. Go back to your cherry-picking. I'm out.

Is it valid to compare on a per capita basis?

In the early days the rate of infection transmission should be independent of the population size. If each person, on average, infects three others theb, apart from very small isolated populations, it should, in the absence of measures to reduce transmission, be able to spread at a consistent rate independent of population size until a significant proportion of the population has been infected.

In the early days it shouldn't matter whether a country has five million or fifty million people the spread, hospital and ICU admission and mortality should be compared in absolute number terms, not relative to the countries total populations.

Seamai

irishlad. wrote: »

Updated Spanish figures:

New cases: 8,195

New deaths: 923

All the more frightening when you consider that their population is 25% less than Italy, at this rate they will probably surpass Italy by Friday or Saturday.

JP Liz V1

On Primetime last night was the disease centre specialist implying that healthcare workers who tested positive was from social gatherings and travel transmission not from working directly with Covid19 patients or contact with other work colleagues too while socialising, many healthcare workers share accommodations

pjohnson

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The chance of death is always there. I wouldn't want any family member to be given a dose of Covid-19. Not for any money.

But think of how much more important money is than life! Thats the mindset of (thankfully) very few.

SuperRabbit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-UgauaPkLk doctor Aaron answering questions about the virus

fatknacker

Can someone please link or tell me if there’s a thread or forum for healthcare workers? Been looking around the site but can’t find anything.

tobefrank321

Downlinz wrote: »

It would be insanity considering the risk of death and suggestion survivors can suffer from permanent lung damage which possibly reduces lifespan.

The purpose of a lockdown is to stop community spread and bring it back down to small, controlled clusters from traceable sources. At which point we can mostly go back to regular life with some precautions.

I don't know what the hard on some people have with this idea that we can't stop the virus and must all get ourselves infected at some point. That's not happening in any of the Asian countries at all. They locked down, contained it and moved on with their lives.

Many people have made perfectly good recoveries from covid 19. In fact the vast majority infected have.

As I said voluntary only and not for everyone.

The Asian countries are seeing second waves of infections.

Containment has been a failure in the west, and unless you lockdown for a year cases will keep rising and falling.

kilkenny31

FishOnABike wrote: »

Is it valid to compare on a per capita basis?

In the early days the rate of infection transmission should be independent of the population size. If each person, on average, infects three others theb, apart from very small isolated populations, it should, in the absence of measures to reduce transmission, be able to spread at a consistent rate independent of population size until a significant proportion of the population has been infected.

In the early days it shouldn't matter whether a country has five million or fifty million people the spread, hospital and ICU admission and mortality should be compared in absolute number terms, not relative to the countries total populations.

So far tho that is proven not to be the case. Population density has a lot to do with it. Look at Sweden, very light restrictions but its not growing there anywhere near as fast as it is in Italy or Spain. Its because its not as densly populated. Same as Portugal is not getting hit as bad as Spain. Its population is a lot smaller.

Professor Moriarty

pjohnson wrote: »

But think of how much more important money is than life! Thats the mindset of (thankfully) very few.

I've no doubt they'll find plenty of volunteers in some poor overpopulated country full of illiterate people desperate for a few dollars. Such is mankind.

kenmc

Snow Garden wrote: »

April fools surely? Even the 'devout' are not that thick

Pretty sure they are, to be honest.swallow any ould bs. Lad gets up out of a cave after dying and flies into the sky, never to be seen or heard of again. Suuuure.

sydthebeat

For people extolling Swedens approach to this....

They have gone from twice the deaths per million rate of their near neighbours Norway, to three times the death rate, in 2 days.

tobefrank321

pjohnson wrote: »

But think of how much more important money is than life! Thats the mindset of (thankfully) very few.

Many people are going to get it anyways.

There's actually no guarantee of a vaccine in a year by the way.

We are just surmising there will be.

pjohnson

sydthebeat wrote: »

For people extolling Swedens approach to this....

They have gone from twice the deaths per million rate of their near neighbours Norway, to three times the death rate, in 2 days.

But is the economy booming more importantly? If it is its a roaring success nothing else matters for some!

kilkenny31

sydthebeat wrote: »

For people extolling Swedens approach to this....

They have gone from twice the deaths per million rate of their near neighbours Norway, to three times the death rate, in 2 days.

Yes but they aren't growing anywhere near what Italy and Spain were which does prove that population and population density matters.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

cameramonkey wrote: »

If you are a part of an organization and adhere rigidly to their spin then it is difficult to be taken seriously. The HSE have record of spin and evasion and they seem to be bringing their A game to this outbreak unfortunately.

Well, I take her posts seriously. I’m sure I’m not the only one. Don’t speak for others.

Harry Palmr

sydthebeat wrote: »

For people extolling Swedens approach to this....

They have gone from twice the deaths per million rate of their near neighbours Norway, to three times the death rate, in 2 days.

Newsnight have just been discussing this - didn't pay much attention to it as they talked but a government minister mentioned the need to keep schools open as closing would wreck the public health sector.

Professor Moriarty

sydthebeat wrote: »

For people extolling Swedens approach to this....

They have gone from twice the deaths per million rate of their near neighbours Norway, to three times the death rate, in 2 days.

There's a sobering graph on that very subject in this article.

sydthebeat

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Yes but they aren't growing anywhere near what Italy and Spain were which does prove that population and population density matters.

Did anyone ever argue otherwise??

This is the main reason India is gong to be decimated from this virus

maebee

elperello wrote: »

freshpopcorn wrote: »

There's a guy near me who's in his seventies and he's protesting because the church is closed!

In fairness a lot of the older generation find it hard to see churches closed.

He isn't really doing any harm with his protest and probably needs to be shown a bit of sensitivity.

He's in his 70s. Should he not be cocooning in his own home?

Strazdas

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Newsnight have just been discussing this - didn't pay much attention to it as they talked but a government minister mentioned the need to keep schools open as closing would wreck the public health sector.

Crazy stuff. Very little is known about Covid-19.....Sweden are taking a massive gamble with their people by leaving places open.

Martina1991

cameramonkey wrote: »

If you are a part of an organization and adhere rigidly to their spin then it is difficult to be taken seriously. The HSE have record of spin and evasion and they seem to be bringing their A game to this outbreak unfortunately.

I do not represent anyone here in any official capacity. My opinions are my own. I could be the Queen of Denmark for all anyone knows.

Your issues appear to be with the HSE rather than me.

kilkenny31

sydthebeat wrote: »

Did anyone ever argue otherwise??

This is the main reason India is gong to be decimated from this virus

I refer you to the post a short time ago by FishOnABike

woohoo!!!

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Many people have made perfectly good recoveries from covid 19. In fact the vast majority infected have.

As I said voluntary only and not for everyone.

The Asian countries are seeing second waves of infections.

Containment has been a failure in the west, and unless you lockdown for a year cases will keep rising and falling.

It would be an absolute last resort as the resources required would be vast beyond belief nevermind the length of time.

Funsterdelux

Downlinz wrote: »

Reminiscent of the holy shrines in Iran which they'd all communally lick and spread the virus like wildfire.
I'm glad churches here had the sense to shut early because you could see something similar happening with hand shaking and communion wafer.

Have you not heard of the Holy Stone of Rathcormac, its a class 2 relic

sydthebeat

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I refer you to the post a short time ago by FishOnABike

Thanks, but I'm honestly not going to go looking back into that hell hole.

If anyone tried to argue that population and population density was not a factor in the spread of the virus then they simply haven't a clue and are taking out of their azz

YFlyer

kilkenny31 wrote: »

We want to get to 15000 per day so we can slowly lift restrictions. Once we have the capacity to test everybody that needs a test we can slowly return to normal. In the mean time what we are doing is sufficient. We are testing the people who have symptoms so we can identify how many people are likely to need care in the next few weeks.

That be 400 days

Xertz

Just looking at Lara Marlowe's article in the Irish Times about French requisitions of PPE from companies with presence in France, including an EU distribution node of a Swedish company that has its masks manufactured in Asia.

If this is going to be the attitude of certain countries on the continent, we could be looking at a really serious problem for the EU. Seems there are quite a few governments that are fond of lecturing other countries, while being fair weather friends.

It's a very disappointing show of self-centred nationalism by an administration that has been continuously extolling the virtues of European solidarity:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/coronavirus-european-solidarity-sidelined-as-french-interests-take-priority-1.4216184

Also Euronews on the cancellation of an order destined for the NHS, due to the same requisition orders at the start of March.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-french-protective-mask-manufacturer-scraps-nhs-order-to-keep-masks-in-france

kilkenny31

YFlyer wrote: »

That be 400 days

We will get to a good level of testing sooner than that.

JRant

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Well, I take her posts seriously. I’m sure I’m not the only one. Don’t speak for others.

The irony is delicious is this post anyway.

They have a valid point. Doesn't matter what way you spin it, they committed to testing 15000, set up drive through testing centres, got the staff, security and everything else required. After a week they realised, hang on a minute we don't have the labs or the key ingredients to actually do anything near that level of testing.

Leo talking about lessons learned like it was a bloody work project. There will be no lessons learned, it was a poorly planned, poorly executed effort from the beginning. Well, it was either that or a level of incompetence that I didn't think even the HSE had in them.

Strumms

maebee wrote: »

elperello wrote: »

He's in his 70s. Should he not be in his own home?

He’d be happy to have churches open and death and illness rampant and rampaging throughout the congregation and wider community? Just shows the type of head the balls that religion can attract, fück sake. :rolleyes:

woohoo!!!

woohoo!!! wrote: »

It would be an absolute last resort as the resources required would be vast beyond belief nevermind the length of time.

Agreed. At some stage it is just going to have to be let run it’s course. As much as some here would like it, a lockdown can’t go on until we have a vaccine. Normal life, albeit with social distancing, office workers still WFH, numbers in pubs and restaurants restricted, and sports behind closed doors, will resume. Or we are talking economic and social suicide (with all the resulting impact on public health). I give it 3 months at the absolute outside, even if we are still getting new ICU cases and deaths

freshpopcorn

maebee wrote: »

elperello wrote: »

He's in his 70s. Should he not be in his own home?

Yes, that’s was one of the reasons why I shared it.
I’d sort of like If the guards told him where to go.

They are plenty of people who’s said mass and the church is closed but they know they’ve to deal with it for every bodies sake.

YFlyer

kilkenny31 wrote: »

We will get to a good level of testing sooner than that.

15000 times 400.

snotboogie

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Yes but they aren't growing anywhere near what Italy and Spain were which does prove that population and population density matters.

Overall population density in Sweden is misleading since they have a vast area where nobody lives and a relitively small area where most people live. Sweden is one of the most urbanised countries in the EU, far more so than Itay

Xertz

Strumms wrote: »

maebee wrote: »

He’d be happy to have churches open and death and illness rampant and rampaging throughout the congregation and wider community? Just shows the type of head the balls that religion can attract, fück sake. :rolleyes:

Out of approximately 4.8 million people, it's fairly inevitable you'll get one person who'll take a view like that. It's also very obviously not a widespread view and has very little support, even from the Church itself.

MipMap

Lavinia wrote: »

I suppose if you go to few places you don't want to touch it till you're finished

That's my theory. Wash your hands then put on the mask in a clean environment.


Do your stuff, avoid touching the mask and when you remove it do so carefully and dispose. Wash hands again.

Strazdas

JRant wrote: »

The irony is delicious is this post anyway.

They have a valid point. Doesn't matter what way you spin it, they committed to testing 15000, set up drive through testing centres, got the staff, security and everything else required. After a week they realised, hang on a minute we don't have the labs or the key ingredients to actually do anything near that level of testing.

Leo talking about lessons learned like it was a bloody work project. There will be no lessons learned, it was a poorly planned, poorly executed effort from the beginning. Well, it was either that or a level of incompetence that I didn't think even the HSE had in them.

How could they anticipate international shortages of chemicals and tests that hadn't even occurred yet?

FishOnABike

kilkenny31 wrote: »

So far tho that is proven not to be the case. Population density has a lot to do with it. Look at Sweden, very light restrictions but its not growing there anywhere near as fast as it is in Italy or Spain. Its because its not as densly populated. Same as Portugal is not getting hit as bad as Spain. Its population is a lot smaller.

Agreed. The population density, average number of contacts a person has and natural social distancing in a country (or area) would all impact the transmission and growth rate, of infection, hospital + ICU admission and mortality rates.

There might be some correlation in that countries with a higher population may have a higher population density but it's not a given.

After it's all over it may be valid to make comparisons based on normalized numbers but at the moment making valid country to country zero day comparisons would need to be in absolute numbers rather than relative to their populations.

Roger_007

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Newsnight have just been discussing this - didn't pay much attention to it as they talked but a government minister mentioned the need to keep schools open as closing would wreck the public health sector.

The Swedish approach is dictated entirely by the public health experts there, or so they claim anyway. I think the most important thing that was said in that interview is that nobody really knows because nothing like this has happened before.
Nobody can be sure what is the proper strategy once the virus has escaped and is widespread in the community. It’s possible that there is nothing you can do that will make much difference.
My own view is that a hard lockdown will become counter-productive within a short time and cannot be maintained for very long anyway, whereas a more relaxed regime can be maintained for much longer and may be more effective in the end. Time will tell.

s1ippy

Strazdas wrote: »

How could they anticipate international shortages of chemicals and tests that hadn't even occurred yet?

A friend of mine works in Pfizer and he texted me in late February about the shortage of reagent.

Jinglejangle69

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Many people have made perfectly good recoveries from covid 19. In fact the vast majority infected have.

As I said voluntary only and not for everyone.

The Asian countries are seeing second waves of infections.

Containment has been a failure in the west, and unless you lockdown for a year cases will keep rising and falling.

Link to the second wave?

Jinglejangle69

s1ippy wrote: »

A friend of mine works in Pfizer and he texted me in late February about the shortage of reagent.

Sure he did.

s1ippy

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Link to the second wave?

Literally googled second wave China
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-singapore-south-korea.amp.html

bekker

Compared to Ireland it doesn't look too good.

Pop Ire/Swed 47.73%
Deaths Ire/Swed 36.19%

In both countries first reported death 11th March.

woohoo!!!

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Agreed. At some stage it is just going to have to be let run it’s course. As much as some here would like it, a lockdown can’t go on until we have a vaccine. Normal life, albeit with social distancing, office workers still WFH, numbers in pubs and restaurants restricted, and sports behind closed doors, will resume. Or we are talking economic and social suicide (with all the resulting impact on public health). I give it 3 months at the absolute outside, even if we are still getting new ICU cases and deaths

Flattening the curve or indeed curves is a direct response not to overwhelm health systems capacity. The much crucial of all this is the health workers themselves. And if they're being worn down through attrition of multiple waves, well it doesn't bear thinking about, nevermind the traumatic effects of working the front line actually means. We can hope for the best but have got to plan for the worst.

Research is crucial and right now the entire globe is on that Petri dish, potentially.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

JRant wrote: »

The irony is delicious is this post anyway.

They have a valid point. Doesn't matter what way you spin it, they committed to testing 15000, set up drive through testing centres, got the staff, security and everything else required. After a week they realised, hang on a minute we don't have the labs or the key ingredients to actually do anything near that level of testing.

Leo talking about lessons learned like it was a bloody work project. There will be no lessons learned, it was a poorly planned, poorly executed effort from the beginning. Well, it was either that or a level of incompetence that I didn't think even the HSE had in them.

Do tell. I’m guessing you think there’s a conflict between “I’m sure I’m not the only one” and “Don’t speak for others”. One is a speculative statement (I’m not definitively speaking for anyone else, just surmising that others of the thousands of users may feel the same as me), the other a directive. Care to outline the irony?

There is a shortage be there are numerous countries grasping for finite supplies. How is that the HSE’s fault? I’ve done laboratory ordering in the past. Even in times of plenty, reagents and other supplies can run low and many lab items are manufactured in other countries. We’re in a worldwide crisis and these items take time to produce.

MipMap

Roger_007 wrote: »

The Swedish approach is dictated entirely by the public health experts there, or so they claim anyway. I think the most important thing that was said in that interview is that nobody really knows because nothing like this has happened before.
Nobody can be sure what is the proper strategy once the virus has escaped and is widespread in the community. It’s possible that there is nothing you can do that will make much difference.
My own view is that a hard lockdown will become counter-productive within a short time and cannot be maintained for very long anyway, whereas a more relaxed regime can be maintained for much longer and may be more effective in the end. Time will tell.

As I read it the death rate from this virus seems to be heavily dependent on how well you can treat the patients in serious condition. ie: Respirators, oxygen etc., Many are saying this is why Germany are doing so well.
Maybe Sweden has a really good health service that can cope with this.