CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Jinglejangle69

s1ippy wrote: »

Literally googled second wave China
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china-hong-kong-singapore-south-korea.amp.html

That's not a wave.

Its cases brought in from foreign travellers.

Are you telling me the lockdown in China didn't work.

Genuine question.

If so why are we wasting our time?

elperello

freshpopcorn wrote: »

maebee wrote: »

Yes, that’s was one of the reasons why I shared it.
I’d sort of like If the guards told him where to go.

They are plenty of people who’s said mass and the church is closed but they know they’ve to deal with it for every bodies sake.

That quote is a bit mixed up.

I commented but I didn't say he should be at home.

Of course he should but it's most likely a sensitive situation and I hope it will be dealt with as such.

JRant

Strazdas wrote: »

How could they anticipate international shortages of chemicals and tests that hadn't even occurred yet?

You don't anticipate, you plan.
Someone thought, great let's build test facilities for up to 15000 a day and seemingly a few days into it they realized, hang on, we don't have enough test kits or gear to process them. One word, omnishambles

Westernyelp

Strazdas wrote:

How could they anticipate international shortages of chemicals and tests that hadn't even occurred yet?

Even if they had. What could they have done about it. Everyone is after the same stuff.

Xertz

snotboogie wrote: »

Overall population density in Sweden is misleading since they have a vast area where nobody lives and a relitively small area where most people live. Sweden is one of the most urbanised countries in the EU, far more so than Itay

Just for a sense of where Ireland sits on this. There are only a few EU countries with lower levels of urbanisation, notably Poland, Austria and Slovenia.

A lot of the countries we compare ourselves with e.g. Nordic ones and New Zealand due to similar population sides are very very urbanised in comparison to here. We've a lot of scattered population compared to a lot of counterparts and our preference for somewhat almost off-grid living and also we somewhat skipped the industrial revolution and went straight to a booming services sector, post-industrial economy, which doesn't actually need the levels of urbanisation that were required in the past.

It's one area where Ireland's very much an outlier and it may be quite significant in this in terms of housing density in particular. Also, unlike Poland and some other former Eastern bloc countries, we do not tend to have dense housing stock. It's quite different.

Although, that being said - Italy's has similar characteristics in some respects. So, I wouldn't necessarily engage in too much exceptionalism on it either. We need to be damn careful to use whatever accidental benefits we might have very wisely.

Belgium: 98%
Malta: 94.6%
Iceland: 93.8%
Sweden 87.4%
NL: 91.5%
Lux: 91%
Sweden 87.4% (Similar to NZ actually who we often compare to Ireland)
Finland 85.4%
UK 83% (Similar to US, Norway South Korea, Canada)
France and Spain both 80% - Greece 79%
Germany 77.3%
Italy 70.4%
Portugal 65.2%
Ireland 63.2%
Poland 60.1%
Austria: 58.3%
Slovenia : 54.5%

Cork Boy 53

s1ippy wrote: »

A friend of mine works in Pfizer and he texted me in late February about the shortage of reagent.

Really? A real ****ing shame he or you didn`t let the HSE or the Government know about it wasn`t it? :rolleyes:

caveat emptor

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1245467611581820931?s=20

statesaver

Joe Rogan Experience - Dr. Peter Hotez


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9Q53KWZFMU

c montgomery

s1ippy wrote: »

A friend of mine works in Pfizer and he texted me in late February about the shortage of reagent.

What reagent are they short of?

fritzelly

statesaver wrote: »

Joe Rogan Experience - Dr. Peter Hotez

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9Q53KWZFMU

And what is he talking about? Aint watching an hour long video with no context

FishOnABike

bekker wrote: »

Compared to Ireland it doesn't look too good.

Pop Ire/Swed 47.73%
Deaths Ire/Swed 36.19%

In both countries first reported death 11th March.

Population shouldn't matter until near saturation rates. Based on deaths Sweden is nearly three times worse than Ireland.

At this time reducing the opportunity for transmission has the greatest effect on spread, hospitalisation, ICU admission and mortality.

Implementing progressive social distancing / shutdown / lockdown measures are a major part in the difference between how different countries are affected.

MipMap

JRant wrote: »

You don't anticipate, you plan.
Someone thought, great let's build test facilities for up to 15000 a day and seemingly a few days into it they realized, hang on, we don't have enough test kits or gear to process them. One word, omnishambles

To be fair, This is the biggest crises the world has faced since WW2.


D Day didn't go off without a few hitches either.

Akrasia

fritzelly wrote: »

May actually have a vaccine for the common cold soon - not that anyone would bother paying to get it I would imagine

‘The common cold’ is just a label for a whole load of mild respiratory illnesses

It will never have a vaccine

JRant

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Do tell. I’m guessing you think there’s a conflict between “I’m sure I’m not the only one” and “Don’t speak for others”. One is a speculative statement (I’m not definitively speaking for anyone else, just surmising that others of the thousands of users may feel the same as me), the other a directive. Care to outline the irony?

There is a shortage be there are numerous countries grasping for finite supplies. How is that the HSE’s fault? I’ve done laboratory ordering in the past. Even in times of plenty, reagents and other supplies can run low and many lab items are manufactured in other countries. We’re in a worldwide crisis and these items take time to produce.

Oh, surmising for the thousands of others that "may" feel the same as you but definitely not speaking for them. Got ya.

You can dress it however you like but it comes down to terrible planning and management. Why bother committing to the additional tests if the raw materials were so hard to come by? Unless they had a dedicated supply chain for all components to make it work then it's nothing more than window dressing.

bilston

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1245467611581820931?s=20

That's worrying because it means it is even harder to control the transmission of the virus.

But the other side of the coin may be that more people than thought have or have been infected which hopefully means more immunity which might help slow a second wave.

Or is that too optimistic?

Dr. Bre

MipMap wrote: »

To be fair, This is the biggest crises the world has faced since WW2.


D Day didn't go off without a few hitches either.

Ww2 shut down the world for years - this won’t

fr336

Well 2 weeks and 1 day since I was last in the office so can't blame work if I pick it up now

bilston

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Ww2 shut down the world for years - this won’t

Yeah but a lot of people thought both world wars would be over by Christmas.

The effects of Covid 19 could well be felt for years, even after we've returned to "normality"

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

JRant wrote: »

Oh, surmising for the thousands of others that "may" feel the same as you but definitely not speaking for them. Got ya.

You can dress it however you like but it comes down to terrible planning and management. Why bother committing to the additional tests if the raw materials were so hard to come by? Unless they had a dedicated supply chain for all components to make it work then it's nothing more than window dressing.

What don’t you understand about the word ‘speculative’?

And I will dress it however I want. Thank you.

What’s unique about Ireland here? Do you think other countries aren’t having any issues with laboratory supplies? Just Ireland? That’s unfortunate. From my lab ordering days, sometimes I wouldn’t know something wasn’t currently available until I went to order it where the last time I ordered it, it was there to be had. And this is a worldwide crisis with many moving parts. Far more difficult circumstances.

fritzelly

Akrasia wrote: »

‘The common cold’ is just a label for a whole load of mild respiratory illnesses

It will never have a vaccine

Weird how we've never given anyone a vaccine that protects against multiple viral infections in one shot before...someone should really come up with the idea

bilston

bilston wrote: »

That's worrying because it means it is even harder to control the transmission of the virus.

But the other side of the coin may be that more people than thought have or have been infected which hopefully means more immunity which might help slow a second wave.

Or is that too optimistic?

I think it’s great. The more asymptomatic carriers, the more of us have probably had it, and the faster it will burn through the population

MipMap

bilston wrote: »

Yeah but a lot of people thought both world wars would be over by Christmas.

The effects of Covid 19 could well be felt for years, even after we've returned to "normality"

My point was that people are debating the falloff in testing and shortages of reagents etc., as if the Govt. messed up. I'm watching the BBC news and they are going on about this issue too



I's a "pandemic" not everything is going to run smoothly.

MrMusician18

Interesting video, where this guy conducts simulation of an epidemic
https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs

It's a toy model, but points out how effective public health measures can be and that how they will need to be in place for a long time.

Xertz

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Ww2 shut down the world for years - this won’t

It's really not comparable to WWII other than it's a world-wide phenomenon and it may be rather disruptive and expensive.

It's a just virus. Yes, it's very nasty and people are losing their lives, but there is no hostile army raining down heavy weaponry from the sky, there's no genocidal regime trying to wipe people out nor is most of Europe's infrastructure being wiped out by high explosives.

We have all our infrastructure. We are all cooperating (well most of us anyway...) on keeping supplies of food, goods and services as close to normal as is possible and the whole planet from liberal democracies to authoritarian regimes are trying to find solutions to this in a very corporative way.

This is a very different situation and we are all in the same boat against a submicroscopic virus that's decided to jump species. It doesn't even know it's killing people and has no objective other than to reproduce itself using our cells.

So, I guess all I'm trying to say is let's not blow it out of proportion with all the war metaphors. A war would be far, far nastier.

caveat emptor

Serious protocols in Naples to protect staff. They are using industrial reusable respirators. FDA approved use of these in a health care setting in this crisis. Not one of the medical staff infected as of yet.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1245059734723428353?s=20

nocoverart

Probably a really stupid question, but is it better to live in a “back water” town in Ireland opposed to an urban area like Dublin or Cork, or does it all even itself out per capita?

Dr. Bre

nocoverart wrote: »

Probably a really stupid question, but is it better to live in a “back water” town in Ireland opposed to an urban area like Dublin or Cork, or does it all even itself out per capita?

As long as you only leaving house for exercise it shouldn’t matter where you live

bekker

FishOnABike wrote: »

Population shouldn't matter until near saturation rates. Based on deaths Sweden is nearly three times worse than Ireland.

At this time reducing the opportunity for transmission has the greatest effect on spread, hospitalisation, ICU admission and mortality.

Implementing progressive social distancing / shutdown / lockdown measures are a major part in the difference between how different countries are affected.

What is not clear from my post ?

Sweden has more than twice pop. of ROI.

Sweden has nearly triple the number of deaths in the same time-frame.

It does not appear from the above that Sweden's laissez-faire approach is as effective as Ireland's approach.

What was not clear?

tuxy

nocoverart wrote: »

Probably a really stupid question, but is it better to live in a “back water” town in Ireland opposed to an urban area like Dublin or Cork, or does it all even itself out per capita?

Living in a remote area would seem to be better for now. But perhaps the remote areas will be just as bad only it takes a bit longer for the same problem to reach those areas.

JRant

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

I will dress it however I want. Thank you.

What’s unique about Ireland here? Do you think other countries aren’t having any issues with laboratory supplies? Just Ireland? That’s unfortunate. From my lab ordering days, sometimes I wouldn’t know something wasn’t currently available until I went to order it where the last time I ordered it, it was there to be ordered.

There's nothing unique about Ireland so you can have that argument in your own head if you like.
You think it was just one of those things, sure everywhere else was looking for it, what could we do.
I happen to agree with you to a point. They had confirmed availability of test kits etc, which we've seen from the fairly steady rates of testing. What they clearly didn't have was confirmed availability to ramp that up 7 fold in a short space of time. It was a waste of resources/time and smacks of being seen to do something rather than actually having a fully coherent plan in place.

woohoo!!!

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Interesting video, where this guy conducts simulation of an epidemic
https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs

It's a toy model, but points out how effective public health measures can be and that how they will need to be in place for a long time.

In effect it all comes down to social distancing. The sort of lock down we have now, can't be sustained indefinitely. People will break out of their confines. Much better and easier to maintain good hand washing, social distancing with super high compliance, once it's understood how this thing is spread by people showing no symptoms (spread by breath, coughing or whatever it is by air).

Ace2007

Xertz wrote: »

It's really not comparable to WWII other than it's a world-wide phenomenon and it may be rather disruptive and expensive.

It's a just virus. Yes, it's very nasty and people are losing their lives, but there is no hostile army raining down heavy weaponry from the sky, there's no genocidal regime trying to wipe people out nor is most of Europe's infrastructure being wiped out by high explosives.

We have all our infrastructure. We are all cooperating (well most of us anyway...) on keeping supplies of food, goods and services as close to normal as is possible and the whole planet from liberal democracies to authoritarian regimes are trying to find solutions to this in a very corporative way.

This is a very different situation and we are all in the same boat against a submicroscopic virus that's decided to jump species. It doesn't even know it's killing people and has no objective other than to reproduce itself using our cells.

So, I guess all I'm trying to say is let's not blow it out of proportion with all the war metaphors. A war would be far, far nastier.

I would actually say the complete opposite - everyone knows how to stop a War - one side usually kills the other or peace is brokered.

This fight we have no idea how to solve, or how to stop, sure we don't even know who is infected and who isn't - for all you know 20% of Ireland could be infected and be over the virus - but we don't know, nor will we probably ever find out. This isn't anyone's fault that's just the way the virus works.

Even if we could test 15,000 people a day - it would take nearly a year to test everyone in Ireland.

DisneyLover

Has anyone been waiting a long time in results and come up positive ?

I rang the HSE today. I had my swab on Monday and they apologised to me cause I work in HC and said I should have had my results Thursday last week the latest !!

I presume i am negative or they would have called . . The paramedic said comparing with others he saw it looks like I had it ( showed him list of my temps) and that it had left my system which I'm hoping for.. I'm never physically sick and I couldn't breathe at all and I'm v fit really can run etc and couldn't breathe and temp was out the roof

Anyway can't believe I'm waiting this long and hoping for a negative. 20 days self isolation now and let me tell you trying to get 4000 steps a day in your feicin bedroom while out of breathe to keep heart ok is feicin boring lol

maebee

freshpopcorn wrote: »

maebee wrote: »

Yes, that’s was one of the reasons why I shared it.
I’d sort of like If the guards told him where to go.

The Gardaí SHOULD tell him where to go, and it's not to mass, it's to his home. I want to go strolling around town tomorrow but I can't and won't. Mass/church is no different. It's very annoying.

Xertz

Ace2007 wrote: »

I would actually say the complete opposite - everyone knows how to stop a War - one side usually kills the other or peace is brokered.

This fight we have no idea how to solve, or how to stop, sure we don't even know who is infected and who isn't - for all you know 20% of Ireland could be infected and be over the virus - but we don't know, nor will we probably ever find out. This isn't anyone's fault that's just the way the virus works.

We also know how to stop a virus. It will just take some time to get the technical solutions to do so, but I'm very confident they will come.

There have been some positive signs on medications possibly making the impact of this disease manageable and non fatal and then a vaccine is potentially around the corner.

I'm not saying it's not rough, nasty, and going to take a lot of people's lives, but at the same time compared to the brutality of a world war, this is nothing like it.

bekker

nocoverart wrote: »

Probably a really stupid question, but is it better to live in a “back water” town in Ireland opposed to an urban area like Dublin or Cork, or does it all even itself out per capita?

Theoretical R0 transmissibility factor, in practice is lower in less densely populated area due to lower possibility of contact {in any given time-frame}.

JRant

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

That's not a wave.

Its cases brought in from foreign travellers.

Are you telling me the lockdown in China didn't work.

Genuine question.

If so why are we wasting our time?

Jaysus, they're a gas bunch over there. Of course it's the bloody foreigners bringing it in. I mean , it could be possible that one of their own 1.4 billion people may still have it. No, they definitely got rid of the whole thing.

DisneyLover

syngindub wrote: »

whats up with people wearing masks while driving. Is it a waste of usage of a mask in a car with the windows up??

You should only wearing be a mask if you are sick / have any symptoms unless obviously for HC staff going into isolated rooms etc normal day to day people should only wear masks if they are sick so say a cough etc. They could have a cough and I presume others who didn't have said cough where in the car so yep it's needed. If no one else in the car it has no purpose.

marilynrr

Xertz wrote: »

So, I guess all I'm trying to say is let's not blow it out of proportion with all the war metaphors. A war would be far, far nastier.

I've seen it compared to wars before, with a difference being that with this pandemic it is far worse because of the isolation, people isolated from their partners/family/loved ones and can't even have the comfort of a hug from a loved one.

fryup

so when are we expecting the big surge...in a week?

nocoverart

Dr. Bre wrote: »

As long as you only leaving house for exercise it shouldn’t matter where you live

Well I’m caring for both my Parents right now and there is certain things I have to do, like the Chemist and collecting the pension for them. I’m more than happy to 100% not go out so I can protect them but that’s just not feasible unfortunately.

Strazdas

nocoverart wrote: »

Probably a really stupid question, but is it better to live in a “back water” town in Ireland opposed to an urban area like Dublin or Cork, or does it all even itself out per capita?

i would say a small town in rural Ireland would be much safer than being in the middle of a big city like Dublin or Cork - less opportunities for the virus to make its way there.

Arghus

This might sound fanciful, but if this runs and runs in The States and gets worse and worse - which it probably will - then I could see a situation where Trump has had enough of being President. He won't want that level of endless scrutiny, hostility and bad news. His ego will make him check out.

Ace2007

Strazdas wrote: »

i would say a small town in rural Ireland would be much safer than being in the middle of a big city like Dublin or Cork - less opportunities for the virus to make its way there.

This was something that I have thought of - do you think there could be a possibility that certain parts of the country could have restrictions lifted, whereas others remain on lockdown - like Dublin and Cork?

Like backend of Carlow and Offaly and places like that probably wouldn't have too many "tourists" brining into the disease - especially as the HSE would have a list of confirmed cases and where they are located.

Dr. Bre

Arghus wrote: »

This might sound fanciful, but if this runs and runs in The States and gets worse and worse - which it probably will - then I could see a situation where Trump has had enough of being President. He won't want that level of endless scrutiny, hostility and bad news. His ego will make him check out.

Or he will cancel the 2020 election so he can stay in power a bit longer . Flip side to that

s1ippy

c montgomery wrote: »

What reagent are they short of?

Transcriptase to convert RNA into DNA and two different types of primer.

Here is the WhatsApp I got from him.

snoopboggybog

Ace2007 wrote: »

This was something that I have thought of - do you think there could be a possibility that certain parts of the country could have restrictions lifted, whereas others remain on lockdown - like Dublin and Cork?

Like backend of Carlow and Offaly and places like that probably wouldn't have too many "tourists" brining into the disease - especially as the HSE would have a list of confirmed cases and where they are located.

Dubs renting will just move back in with the parents and commute every day spreading it everywhere if there physically needed.

Any retirees with a pension will just rent a holiday home for a months down the country.

Don't think it would work.

A lot of New Yorkers are currently fleeing to Florida

Xertz

marilynrr wrote: »

I've seen it compared to wars before, with a difference being that with this pandemic it is far worse because of the isolation, people isolated from their partners/family/loved ones and can't even have the comfort of a hug from a loved one.

True, but having talked to survivors of WWII in France and elsewhere, this is unpleasant, stressful, isolating but it's on a whole other level compared to what some of them went through.

They're both terrible events, but there's something rather different about being brutally attacked, isolated, locked up, tortured or even murdered out of sheer human spite than dealing with a natural pathogen that's just going about its mindless business.

What we're dealing with right now is a natural disaster, a tragedy on a huge scale, but it's not a war caused by some evil regime trying to wipe us out.

Strazdas

Ace2007 wrote: »

This was something that I have thought of - do you think there could be a possibility that certain parts of the country could have restrictions lifted, whereas others remain on lockdown - like Dublin and Cork?

Like backend of Carlow and Offaly and places like that probably wouldn't have too many "tourists" brining into the disease - especially as the HSE would have a list of confirmed cases and where they are located.

It sounds good in theory but I would imagine the government would be reluctant to go there. I notice most countries in Europe have gone for nationwide restrictions / lockdown. They might feel that regional restrictions might cause more problems than they solve.

fritzelly

s1ippy wrote: »

Transcriptase to convert RNA into DNA and two different types of primer.

Here is the WhatsApp I got from him.

Whatsapp - the bastion of truth