CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

normanoffside

poppers wrote: »

Cheltenham ended 3 weeks ago. I think anyone showing symptoms from now got it somewhere else.

They could have got it from someone who went to Cheltenham or someone who got it from someone who went to Cheltenham.

podgeandrodge

Strazdas wrote: »

Dr Holohan says he hopes / expects to see new case growth dropping 'by the end of next week'.

That would be so great to hear, and give a bit of hope to people. So long as it isn't down to low testing rates.

Ace2007

Local_Chap wrote: »

200 staff and 100 residents, surely that can't be right?

No it was 100 in total, 35% (or 70) staff tested positive

CitizenFloor

podgeandrodge wrote: »

When the pubs open, I intend to give them a lot of business for as long as my liver holds out!

A true patriot

FVP3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Incredible story from China of the Americans snatching consignments of masks meant for France. They showed up with "wads of cash".

The supplies are now not going to France.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/face-masks-china-intended-france-101726494.html?__twitter_impression=true

Time Europeans realised the US is our enemy.

SweetCaliber

402 new Cases today, 13 new Deaths.

Table with 10% prediction for April and charts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IMavHMFAT59NaRmSJxfHIVxAhiT46CmzL0tj0Esqalc/

Strazdas

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

That has to be joke. I thought they're ramping up testing

There are anecdotal reports of fewer people being admitted to hospitals in the last 24-48 hours.

poppers

endainoz wrote: »

If it takes nearly two weeks to get results, and if you factor in the incubation period it absolutely could come from Cheltenham.

I said anyone showing symptoms from now on never mentioned anything about people waiting for tests or results

Bob24

fr336 wrote: »

I'm guessing it wouldn't be too wise to get a takeaway such as a Domino's at the present time? Not because of contact with the driver, more infection via the food etc or am I being OTT?

Yeah I think the highest risk would be for whoever baked/packaged the pizza to be contaminated and leave some droplets on the food after cooking or on the inside of the box (ideally Dominos’s could give surgical masks to whomever takes the pizzas from the oven and puts them into the boxes to alleviate that risk, but I am not sure they can).

In the grand scheme of things and assuming you’re not getting them too often it is a fairly low risk. But it is there.

Loafing Oaf

Strazdas wrote: »

Dr Holohan says he hopes / expects to see new case growth dropping 'by the end of next week'.

Likely 'hoping' for a drop sooner than that but doesn't want to give a hostage to fortune...

c.p.w.g.w

In relation to Dr Holohan speaking about contacts.

I have 1 at home...but in work I had 14 contacts in my 7 hour shift last night alone...yet we are "essential".

I have taken the steps to pretty much isolate myself in my day to day but have to go to work unless i want to get the sack

SleetAndSnow

So 84 deaths were not in an ICU setting. I assume the rest were nursing homes etc? Very sad

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The 402 new cases is fully expected given the tighter testing criteria and this is what they wanted to have a higher positive report out of tested cases.

Still only what, 11% or so too?

branie2

May the 13 people who died rest in peace.

iwillyeah1234

Cheekpieces wrote: »

Cause its absolute bull**** from the worst rag out there

Telegraph corroborates part of the Mail story
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2020/04/01/andrew-parker-bowles-coronavirus-diagnosis-sparks-fears-royals/

kg703

me89 wrote: »

I doubt it's from Cheltenham at this stage, Cheltenham finished 3 weeks tomorrow.

My colleagues were at Cheltenham(working), some got symptoms straight away and one only started showing at the end of last week. A good few still sick. The worst comes towards the end for a lot.

Separately, my sister in laws symptoms started around the 11th March, was in contact with a confirmed case a week before that and just got a positive test result and was told to isolate until April 12th..... thats a month!

Charles Babbage

ecoli3136 wrote: »

Still only what, 11% or so too?

Higher I suspect, as they are not reaching their target number of tests.

bennyl10

If only 14 deaths are form ICU
Just how many have been in nursing homes? How bad is that situation looking now we have that figure

Cork Boy 53

splinter65 wrote: »

We’re getting the better of this.

Are we? The death toll will probably be in triple figures by tomorrow and the number in ICU will also be up. And we have a long way to go before hitting the peak.

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Higher I suspect, as they are not reaching their target number of tests.

11% growth on positive tests.

While I accept that there is a high multiple of undiagnosed cases out there the trend is still encouraging.

iwillyeah1234

kg703 wrote: »

My colleagues were at Cheltenham(working), some got symptoms straight away and one only started showing at the end of last week. A good few still sick. The worst comes towards the end for a lot.

Separately, my sister in laws symptoms started around the 11th March, was in contact with a confirmed case a week before that and just got a positive test result and was told to isolate until April 12th..... thats a month!

There has been one outlier case in China that had a infection to symptoms span of 49 days! ( maybe a mutation of Corona)

Coyote

Number updated to match today's report

I have updated the % needing ICU to 6%, I also left the number of new cases going forward as the testing numbers are unsure

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths
if anyone has questions or thinks it could be changed with better data let me know


interesting visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

bennyl10

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Are we? The death toll will probably be in triple figures by tomorrow and the number in ICU will also be up. And we have a long way to go before hitting the peak.

According to the CMO we do not have that long to go at all.

People just can’t panic in the coming days when figures go up!

gozunda

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A silver lining in that cloud is that they have surpassed the 60% required for herd immunity.

How the fuk do you figure that finding exactly?

'Herd immunity' without vaccination remains an unknown

Just Saying

I think the variation in the number of cases could well be a result of timing differences in getting lab results...the 3 and 5 day averages are not showing dangerous levels of growth.

In addition the increases are probably the result of more stringent selection for testing and the higher percentage of positives reflect that this change of targeting is working.

Also deaths at 13 with a remarkably high median age of 92 whilst regrettable is not indicative of a problem that is going out of control.

All told I would think that they are reasonably happy with the situation in terms of the ability of the Health Service to cope.

lastusername

murpho999 wrote: »

Cyclists should not be on the path simple.

As for runners, well it's important to get the exercise, if the paths are narrow then it's the same problem if people are walking so I don't see the difference to be honest, just do the same as you would do with a walker.

I'm in Dublin and out running on the roads these days to give people plenty of room, it's pretty cool to be able to do that with so little traffic!

Bob24

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Incredible story from China of the Americans snatching consignments of masks meant for France. They showed up with "wads of cash".

The supplies are now not going to France.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/face-masks-china-intended-france-101726494.html?__twitter_impression=true

Yep crazy story, I reported this in the morning and for some reason someone didn’t believe it.

If true (which it seems to be) it not only shows that Americans aren’t to be trusted related to this, but it also shows how desperate they are for PPE (the fact that they also accepted “humanitarian help” from Russia must have been a serious humiliation for many in the white house).

pc7

Ok hope this doesn’t come across wrong in text, but is it good news the daily death figure isn’t rising? (RIP to all), isn’t that a good sign that maybe measures are working?

Coyote

sorry uploaded the wrong day numbers

Beasty

ecoli3136 wrote: »

11% growth on positive tests.

While I accept that there is a high multiple of undiagnosed cases out there the trend is still encouraging.

Depends entirely on how many tests were carried out

If it's still at the 1,500/1750 level the trend is not, in my view, encouraging

eagle eye

FVP3 wrote: »

Time Europeans realised the US is our enemy.

:rolleyes:

This is the type of action I'd like to see from my government but we'll never see it because they are afraid to look bad.

eagle eye

pc7 wrote: »

Ok hope this doesn’t come across wrong in text, but is it good news the daily death figure isn’t rising? (RIP to all), isn’t that a good sign that maybe measures are working?

The more cases we have the more people that are going to die so while a lower death total on any given day is always good news it's likely we are in for a much higher death toll with the increased number for cases.

podgeandrodge

lastusername wrote: »

I'm in Dublin and out running on the roads these days to give people plenty of room, it's pretty cool to be able to do that with so little traffic!

Agree. But I find when I am out walking, it is always me that steps out into the road to give others that space. Most people over last week or so stand their ground and don't make any effort. That has been my experience anyway, maybe I am just too quick to step out in advance.

PokeHerKing

bennyl10 wrote: »

According to the CMO we do not have that long to go at all.

People just can’t panic in the coming days when figures go up!

It wasn't too long ago the CMO was telling us there was absolutely nothing to worry about full stop.

Just Saying

pc7 wrote: »

Ok hope this doesn’t come across wrong in text, but is it good news the daily death figure isn’t rising? (RIP to all), isn’t that a good sign that maybe measures are working?

I think it is especially when we are recording deaths from all Covid related cases rather than other countries which might put it down to other underlying conditions.

CitizenFloor

Good to hear that we report deaths when Covid19 is confirmed as present, as opposed to it being the primary cause of death. Strikes me as more transparent, and less susceptible to fudging, in terms of deaths at least.

PmMeUrDogs

RTE is reporting 402 new cases, 13 deaths.


That's a bigger jump than I expected in cases.

RIP to the people who've lost their lives.

YFlyer

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah I think the highest risk would be for whoever baked/packaged the pizza to be contaminated and leave some droplets on the food after cooking or on the inside of the box (ideally Dominos’s could give surgical masks to whomever takes the pizzas from the oven and puts them into the boxes to alleviate that risk, but I am not sure they can).

In the grand scheme of things and assuming you’re not getting them too often it is a fairly low risk. But it is there.

You be okay consuming food.

Cork Boy 53

Just Saying wrote: »

I think the variation in the number of cases could well be a result of timing differences in getting lab results...the 3 and 5 day averages are not showing dangerous levels of growth.

In addition the increases are probably the result of more stringent selection for testing and the higher percentage of positives reflect that this change of targeting is working.

Also deaths at 13 with a remarkably high median age of 92 whilst regrettable is not indicative of a problem that is going out of control.

All told I would think that they are reasonably happy with the situation in terms of the ability of the Health Service to cope.

It was stated that the median age is 82 not 92.

pjohnson

Coyote wrote: »

Number updated to match today's report

I have updated the % needing ICU to 6%, I also left the number of new cases going forward as the testing numbers are unsure

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths
if anyone has questions or thinks it could be changed with better data let me know


interesting visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

At this stage good luck given the general blurriness of all provided figures. Very hard to really know with how reports are changing daily re. what each number is.

wakka12

Median age 92 of the deaths today omg..must have been a few centarian deaths today

Harry Palmr

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

It was stated that the median age is 82 not 92.

92 was stated at the opening of the presser.

marno21

PokeHerKing wrote: »

It wasn't too long ago the CMO was telling us there was absolutely nothing to worry about full stop.

At the time this was the case.

When there was 1/2 cases in the country he said the risk of contracting the virus at the time in the community was low; was this not accurate?

When the schools were closed, half the country ran to Tesco and started clearing the shelves. The CMO and other authoritative figures have to be very careful with their language to avoid causing panic.

fullstop

endainoz wrote: »

If it takes nearly two weeks to get results, and if you factor in the incubation period it absolutely could come from Cheltenham.

Go back and read the post. They are only showing symptoms now and haven’t had test results. It’s highly unlikely.

Ace2007

eagle eye wrote: »

The more cases we have the more people that are going to die so while a lower death total on any given day is always good news it's likely we are in for a much higher death toll with the increased number for cases.

I was making this point last night - and may have come across wrong, but given the median age today I think was 92?. an increase in the number of people tested positive, won't mean an increase in the number of deaths - if the most vulnerable in our society - nursing homes etc are protected and shielded from the virus - I think the number of deaths will fall.

conversely, if the number of elderly people who get the virus increase, then regardless of other numbers, the number of deaths will increase.

podgeandrodge

fr336 wrote: »

I'm guessing it wouldn't be too wise to get a takeaway such as a Domino's at the present time? Not because of contact with the driver, more infection via the food etc or am I being OTT?

YFlyer wrote: »

You be okay consuming food.

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I bring the food into the house and put it on a stool. I wash my hands and get a plate out (or have the plate out beforehand). I empty the delivered food onto my plate, without touching the plate. I then put the wrappings in the bin and again wash my hands thoroughly before holding the plate and bringing it to the table.

Maybe over the top, but it seems logical to me. But I will never give up my takeaway during this shítty times, so that is a (low) risk I am prepared to take.

I'm a little more paranoid, but about the packaging rather than the food.

lastusername

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Agree. But I find when I am out walking, it is always me that steps out into the road to give others that space. Most people over last week or so stand their ground and don't make any effort. That has been my experience anyway, maybe I am just too quick to step out in advance.

Might depend on where you live! If I'm on the outer side I tend to just stay near the edge or step out a bit, but if I'm on the inside I'm just expecting them to move naturally, and virtually everyone does.



If there are a good few people around I tend to just go onto the road altogether, I'm generally either running and if I'm walking I tend to walk faster than most people anyway.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

Median age 92 of the deaths today omg..must have been a few centarian deaths today

The median age is 82. Poor George Lee has nervous exhaustion, the gaffes are piling up.

PmMeUrDogs

PmMeUrDogs wrote: »

RTE is reporting 402 new cases, 13 deaths.


That's a bigger jump than I expected in cases.
.

Think of it as an 11% increase on confirmed cases.

That's encouraging.

Bear in mind there must be many more cases out there than have been tested.

But for sure if % increase on confirmed cases was trending at 30% say, this would be regarded as a disaster in train. So take your good news where you can find it.

holyhead

Don't foresee going back to work until at least June. This scenario isn't going away anytime soon. The authorities and health services are doing a sterling job at keeping the death toll in the Republic low. Any death is tragic and rest in peace to all.