CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Stateofyou

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I get all that.

But you cannot rush a vaccine. it has to be extensively tested. It takes time and patience. And no amount of money can bypass that.

Its good that he's on board with his billions, but he should be careful about rushing a vaccine that could in the long run do more harm than good.

I hear you. I'm sure he knows that.

Hamsterchops

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

98 deaths per 5 million.I over heard an old chap saying if this were the 1980s this would have been labeled as a "bad dose going around"

Lets hope nout fishy is going on.

Thought provoking; We'll only know what really happened & why it happened, when the dust has settled in a year or two. Just a simple case of a Corona type virus escaping from a wet market in China, probably......

I know one thing, it will be a great chance to measure the reduced levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere re global warming! Billion of internal combustion engines off the road globally for several of months.

silverharp

walshb wrote: »

Gates is an industrialist.....a titan..

Ultimately it is people like him and political figures that get things done....

They don't necessarily need to know a damn thing about anything (though Gates is very well educated and very well read)

It's their passion, commitment, desire and all around facilitating skills that get things done. They bring people together....and it is this that will beat the spread. Bringing the best people together...

Gates is one of those people that you dont want to be on the opposite side of the argument to, you might be right 2% of the time

ShayNanigan

all about the mane wrote: »

My wife had the same. And a really raspy cough to go with it. Never saw her so bad. I was wondering afterwards if it was actually covid19

Could well have been. More and more reports around the world, including research papers about the mutations/strains of the virus, suggesting it has been circulating at least since November.

gabeeg

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Agreed. One of the reasons why Italy, Spain and the UK have been badly hit is their much older populations. World class healthcare systems mean at the same time a much older population. There will be deaths in the developing world but far less and the number of confirmed cases will be far less due to less testing.

Lads, in 2018 there was 19,076,753 people over 65 in Indonesia alone according to this site
https://www.indexmundi.com/indonesia/age_structure.html

Just because the average life expectancy is significantly lower, it does not mean that there's not large amounts of older people in every developing country.
It is, as ever, going to be much worse for poorer nations

Rvsmmnps

EDit wrote: »

It’s irrelevant what happened in Italy in 2015/2016 as the country wasn’t on lockdown as it Is now. This is the problem. People compare the death rates under strict quarantine conditions with death rates from previous years when there were no quarantine conditions and say “look, it’s not that bad”

Well where are the stats for for standard flu?

DevilsHaircut

Covid 19 antibody/serology/blood tests (as opposed to the PCR/viral RNA/swab tests that Ireland is doing) have two potential uses:

(1) Identify donors of antibodies/plasma to treat the critically ill,
(2) Identify immune(?) people, who can return to work quickly, especially in the frontline

The test in the tweet below is Fastep by Assure Tech (named in FIND's WHO-linked list of suppliers).

https://twitter.com/HandtevyMD/status/1245832946612711424

https://twitter.com/JAMA_current/status/1243599613761896448

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/?section=immunoassays#diag_tab

tobefrank321

Stateofyou wrote: »

Any chance you could just read the article before commenting?

"Because to get to the best case, that people like myself and Dr. Fauci are saying is about 18 months, we need to do safety and efficacy and build manufacturing."

Fair enough. 18 months so. Hardly a huge improvement on everyone else.

eagle eye

tobefrank321 wrote:

I think Gates should stick to what he's good at, making computers.

So you obviously didn't read what he said but just make comments about what he said?

otnomart

murpho999 wrote: »

I really don't think it would have.

Let's take Italy as an example.

If Irish skiers (which I think is where a lot of infections here have come from) in Italy were denied flights home they would have traveled him via another route, such as Austria, France or Switzerland. They would not have simply stayed in Italy.

These people probably went to Italy, caught the virus, and came home before even the first death in Italy.

Trumps stopped European flights with little impact.

The virus was already in the community here before any concerns about Italy or Spain were apparant.

I have just seen this today:
(Alongside people returning from Italy) "people returning from Austria and the UK account for most of the travel-related coronavirus cases that have been diagnosed in Ireland, an analysis of confirmed infections finds."


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-italy-austria-and-uk-account-for-most-imported-cases-1.4212048

Rvsmmnps

EDit wrote: »

It’s irrelevant what happened in Italy in 2015/2016 as the country wasn’t on lockdown as it Is now. This is the problem. People compare the death rates under strict quarantine conditions with death rates from previous years when there were no quarantine conditions and say “look, it’s not that bad”

Second quote sorry

We must compare irragarless of social situation. Death rates are solid figures, how people died gives us details. The country (Italy) looses alot of people to flu each winter season. 25k seems like alot. But that didn't really hit the headlines.
Anyway I just wanted to know what the current standard flu deaths were or are for the past winter.. In italy

gabeeg

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Second quote sorry

We must compare irragarless of social situation. Death rates are solid figures, how people died gives us details. The country (Italy) looses alot of people to flu each winter season. 25k seems like alot. But that didn't really hit the headlines.
Anyway I just wanted to know what the current standard flu deaths were or are for the past winter.. In italy

Good effort

tobefrank321

eagle eye wrote: »

So you obviously didn't read what he said but just make comments about what he said?

There are many plans to make a vaccine. Realistically the earliest one will be 18 months from now for a variety of reasons, even if you rush things.

A vaccine in 18 months is great, but it doesn't solve the problem of how to salvage the world economy while also stopping the maximum amount of people dying from it in the meantime.

So by the time a vaccine is on stream, you could have collapsed economies, huge debt mountains, many dead, overwhelmed healthcare systems and so on.

A vaccine is part of the solution but only part.

Hamsterchops

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

The winter of 2015 into 2016 seen almost 25,000 deaths in Italy due to influenza.
Corona virus so far has killed 14,000 people in Italy so far, where could I see a Stat for the current amount of deaths attributed to standard flu in Italy for this season?

Another thought provoking stat, and as I said in my last post, we'll only know what has really happened in a year or two when the dust has settled.

moritz1234

ShayNanigan wrote: »

Could well have been. More and more reports around the world, including research papers about the mutations/strains of the virus, suggesting it has been circulating at least since November.

The death rates don't seem to back up this conspiracy theory.

eagle eye

Rvsmmnps wrote:

We must compare irragarless of social situation. Death rates are solid figures, how people died gives us details. The country (Italy) looses alot of people to flu each winter season. 25k seems like alot. But that didn't really hit the headlines. Anyway I just wanted to know what the current standard flu deaths were or are for the past winter.. In italy

This thread is about the worldwide pandemic know as coronavirus covid-19. It's killing many people in many countries all across the planet.
We are not discussing flu here. Anything you come up with is only going to pertain to one country and is irrelevant as far as covid-19 is concerned.
It's completely pointless even as far as Italy is concerned.

Tacitus Kilgore

otnomart wrote: »

I have just seen this today:
(Alongside people returning from Italy) "people returning from Austria and the UK account for most of the travel-related coronavirus cases that have been diagnosed in Ireland, an analysis of confirmed infections finds."


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-italy-austria-and-uk-account-for-most-imported-cases-1.4212048

Ishgl ski resort was riddled with it, and not acted on fast enough according to some media accounts.

citysights

Minister Simon Harris has signed two statutory instruments relating to prescriptions.

The maximum validity of a prescription has increased from six to nine months.

The Medicinal Products (Prescriptions and Control of Supply) ( Amendment) Regulation 2020 allows for the electronic transfer of prescriptions to a pharmacy via the HSE’s Healthmail an electronic system.

Some temporary changes to the way in which prescriptions can be repeated are also being introduced to ensure that continuity of care of patients without necessarily requiring a new prescription.

ChikiChiki

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think Gates should stick to what he's good at, making computers.

Vaccines are a complicated business and best left to those with experience in the field.

If you rush a cv19 vaccine or get it wrong, you could end up giving narcolepsy or the like to a perfectly healthy individual who might have only got a mild dose of cv19 or none at all. In fact I'd nearly prefer a mild dose of cv19 if it could be guaranteed than a vaccine that hasn't been rigorously tested.

And maybe that's the route they should be going down, identify the mildest strain of covid 19 and immunise volunteers with a low viral load. And then study the results.

You obviously know very little about Bill Gates. Making computers only a part of what he does.

bunderoon

moritz1234 wrote: »

The death rates don't seem to back up this conspiracy theory.

Whats the conspiracy?
Or did you just mean theory?

lastusername

ChikiChiki wrote: »

You obviously know very little about Bill Gates. Making computers only a part of what he does.

Lol yes, Bill Gates hasn't been involved in day to day operations at Microsoft for donkey's years, he even recently resigned as chairman.


Obviously a smart guy, massively connected and massively rich; meaning he and his foundation has the capacity to get things moving very quickly.

lastusername

Bought some masks on Amazon, delivery date is May but I'd say it's going to be mid-May at the earliest before restrictions start to loosen, and of course that's dependent on the rate of infection consistently in decline.

cameramonkey

cameramonkey wrote: »

What did you predict?

That the PPE in these Chinese flights would be junk. Cobbled together by opportunists to make a quick buck.

"Some elements of the first batch are not ideal but may be usable if an alternative supply is not available."

May be usable if we have nothing else is diplomatic way of saying total crap.

Multiple countries have said they've gotten total rubbish in these shipments, some have been more diplomatic about it than others.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/some-protection-equipment-from-china-not-ideal-hse-says-1.4219452

tobefrank321

otnomart wrote: »

I have just seen this today:
(Alongside people returning from Italy) "people returning from Austria and the UK account for most of the travel-related coronavirus cases that have been diagnosed in Ireland, an analysis of confirmed infections finds."


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-italy-austria-and-uk-account-for-most-imported-cases-1.4212048

As soon as they identify hotspots, they should restrict flights directly from there, and quarantine those who come from there. You can quarantine a number of ways - in a special hotel or at home. There is no easy way to quarantine though as you still risk spreading. But its far better to quarantine than continue with your daily life of going to work, using public transport, going to the pub - and that's what likely happened with IRish people returning from Italy and Austria.

We didn't do any of that at the start. No advice to self quarantine unless symptoms showed which of course meant you might already have spread it in the community.

As for people finding other ways home that is fine, but you are depending on them to use common sense to quarantine.

What happened with Italy though is we maintained an extensive schedule of flights to and from the hotspot region in the north. This means even when it was known there was a problem there, Irish people continued to fly there and back. Italians also continued to fly to Ireland. This was madness. As crazy as the Brits letting Cheltenham go ahead.

tobefrank321

ChikiChiki wrote: »

You obviously know very little about Bill Gates. Making computers only a part of what he does.

I know plenty of what he does.

But as great as he is, he's not going to crack the vaccine problem any quicker than anyone else.

That's all I've got to say on Bill Gates.

otnomart

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Ishgl ski resort was riddled with it, and not acted on fast enough according to some media accounts.

Indeed.
How an Austrian ski paradise became a COVID-19 hotspot:

"On the evening of 7 March, a 36-year-old German was tested positive. He worked as a bartender in a popular après-ski bar, packed with tourists from all over the world every evening"
"15 people from the barkeeper’s circle tested positive"
https://www.euractiv.com/section/cor...orona-hotspot/

nacho libre

New Home wrote: »

And they had, like, a week or something, to set it up so that people wouldn't go hungry or risk their lives. Of course it's flawed, but it's a damn sight better than what other countries are doing.

Indeed. Some poor countries have implemened a lockdown, with little to none state assistance for those who need it most. We are very lucky

eagle eye

tobefrank321 wrote:

But as great as he is, he's not going to crack the vaccine problem any quicker than anyone else.

But you didn't even read what he said before you commented on it.

Quin_Dub

Very interesting Data from Google showing the changes in movement patterns - Looks like every country is listed

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

Lots of details - Ireland data broken down by county

83% reduction in traffic to "Retail and Recreation" locations

37% Reduction to "Grocery & Pharmacy"

59% Reduction to Parks

78% reduction to Transit stations

52% reduction to workplaces

And a surprisingly low increase of 19% to Residential

tobefrank321

otnomart wrote: »

Indeed.
How an Austrian ski paradise became a COVID-19 hotspot:

"On the evening of 7 March, a 36-year-old German was tested positive. He worked as a bartender in a popular après-ski bar, packed with tourists from all over the world every evening"
"15 people from the barkeeper’s circle tested positive"
https://www.euractiv.com/section/cor...orona-hotspot/

Also the origin of the first confirmed UK outbreak I believe and a couple of Scandinavian countries who told Austria they might have a problem.

I think they played a game at that resort where they passed marshmellows around using their mouths. Idiots.

otnomart

gabeeg wrote: »

Lads, in 2018 there was 19,076,753 people over 65 in Indonesia alone according to this site
https://www.indexmundi.com/indonesia/age_structure.html

Just because the average life expectancy is significantly lower, it does not mean that there's not large amounts of older people in every developing country.
It is, as ever, going to be much worse for poorer nations

Absolutely.
The elderly 80 plus years old in Italy are likely to be healthier overall than in developing countries: their existing conditions (high blood pressure, diabetes) for example are managed with the latest drugs available, they have access to the latest CT, MRI, PET, Radiotherapy machines...

DevilsHaircut

Covid 19 has been circulating undetected globally since at least January.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1245856634615631872

EDIT: Tweet has now been deleted. It seems that Brazil corrected the initial information, and the case in question died in March, not January.

EDit

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Second quote sorry

We must compare irragarless of social situation. Death rates are solid figures, how people died gives us details. The country (Italy) looses alot of people to flu each winter season. 25k seems like alot. But that didn't really hit the headlines.
Anyway I just wanted to know what the current standard flu deaths were or are for the past winter.. In italy

Yeah, I guess I know where you are going with this. As other posters have pointed out though, we’ll need to wait until this pandemic is finished before we will have the ability to effectively assess the true death rate. Don’t forget that only ~14000 people have been reported as dying from Covid-19 in Italy so far. There may be more that we don’t know about (eg, nursing home patients not reported in official numbers) and that is the number so far... Italy is far from being over this.

jv2000

Concerning a vaccine there are 2 candidates already in Phase 1 clinical trials. The European medicines agency released a press release on Tuesday stating that it will be at least a year before a vaccine is approved and on the market. They also rightly highlighted that getting a vaccine approved is only half of the problem, the other aspect is having enough supply available to meet the considerable demand from all EU countries (and I dare say the US market as well with other rest of world markets to follow).

In my opinion it is most likely that a treatment of symptoms will be available before any vaccine - that is a treatment for COVID-19 patients, for example remdesivir if it works. It is already in Phase 3 and clinical trials should be complete soon as it is only being used for 5 or 10 day dosing regimens.

The only way to move forward is slowly, with travel and work being directed by antibody testing, otherwise without a vaccine in the near future there will likely be a relapse as alluded to by the WHO already.

gabeeg

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Covid 19 has been circulating undetected globally since at least January.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1245856634615631872

Interesting of course, but I'm naturally dubious about anything coming out of Brazil because of Bolsonaro

FVP3

gabeeg wrote: »

Lads, in 2018 there was 19,076,753 people over 65 in Indonesia alone according to this site
https://www.indexmundi.com/indonesia/age_structure.html

Just because the average life expectancy is significantly lower, it does not mean that there's not large amounts of older people in every developing country.
It is, as ever, going to be much worse for poorer nations

Not in terms of percentages, though. You are ignoring a few things:

1) Herd immunity can build up easier amongst the younger populations which will stop the spread even without intervention.
2) The disasters in Europe were due to the health system collapsing because of the strain of not having enough ICUs. Where the population is younger there is a built in "curve flattening mechanism"
3) Once a developed country has run out of ICUs it is in the same position as a developing country that had few to begin with.

In other words the developed world isn't really that ahead of the game this time.

Developing countries could get away with restricting their old people.

otnomart

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Covid 19 has been circulating undetected globally since at least January.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1245856634615631872

Doesn't surprise me, at all.


From the New York Times
How the Virus Got Out
Many of the first known cases clustered around a seafood market in Wuhan, China, a city of 11 million and a transportation hub.
Four cases grew to dozens by the end of December. Doctors knew only that the sick people had viral pneumonia that did not respond to the usual treatments.
Over 900 people went to New York every month on average, based on recent trends …
… over 2,200 to Sydney …
… and over 15,000 people went to Bangkok, the most popular destination.
That’s where the first known overseas case appeared in mid-January, a 61-year-old woman who traveled from Wuhan to Bangkok despite having a fever, headache and a sore throat.
Other early cases turned up in Tokyo, Singapore, Seoul and Hong Kong. The U.S. confirmed its first case near Seattle.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

FishOnABike

snoopboggybog wrote: »

USA 0.073% of the population have contacted Coronavirus.
Spain 0.25% of the population have contacted Coronavirus
Ireland 0.08% of the population have contacted Coronavirus.

Now you can't really go by these number due to the countries level of testing etc. It will take at least another month to have a clearer picture of everything.

Ficheall wrote: »

Level of deaths per capita is perhaps a little more reliable, but we're doing worse than the US there too. Better than only 16 countries on that score, actually. And four of those countries have populations of under 50k, and one of 77k.


Hopefully the effect of the lockdown measures will start becoming evident in the death rate next week..

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The US has 7 times the population of Spain. It's hardly shocking. How do the deaths per million compare?

Per million numbers aren't really a valid comparison when we're all still at the beginning of the curve.

If infection doubles every 2.3 days (to make the numbers easy) then after 2.3 days 2 people are infected, after 4.6 days 4 people are infected, after a week 8 people are infected, after two weeks 64 people are infected, after three weeks 512 people are infected, after four weeks 4016 people are infected, etc....

Until the virus starts to run out of new hosts it doesn't matter whether the population is 5 million or 50 million, mitigating circumstances aside, it will follow the same growth pattern.

Population size is relevant to how long it takes for the virus to start running out of new hosts to infect, the final number of people infected and the potential peak infection + hospitalisation rates. All are potentially worse for a larger population.

When the pandemic is over % or per million population comparisons can be used to compare how different regions / countries have been affected and how well they have managed the pandemic.

Medical resources tend to scale linearly with population. With a geometric or exponential growth rate for CoViD-19, the larger the population the larger the potential gap between medical resources and the number of infected people needing hospitalisation or ICU care.

I'm more comfortable to be living in a relatively small, well resourced country that introduced progressive containment / distancing / isolation policies reasonably quickly and as a result has deaths in the low to mid teens a day rather than over 1000 a day.

Rob A. Bank

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Very interesting Data from Google showing the changes in movement patterns - Looks like every country is listed

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

Lots of details - Ireland data broken down by county

83% reduction in traffic to "Retail and Recreation" locations

37% Reduction to "Grocery & Pharmacy"

59% Reduction to Parks

78% reduction to Transit stations

52% reduction to workplaces

And a surprisingly low increase of 19% to Residential

It's a very small jump from using this data derived from Google maps, to use it for tracing cases and contacts.

That is essentially what South Korea have done and they have been successful in containing the pandemic.

Which is more important, privacy or public health and more deaths?

Quin_Dub

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Very interesting Data from Google showing the changes in movement patterns - Looks like every country is listed

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

Lots of details - Ireland data broken down by county

83% reduction in traffic to "Retail and Recreation" locations

37% Reduction to "Grocery & Pharmacy"

59% Reduction to Parks

78% reduction to Transit stations

52% reduction to workplaces

And a surprisingly low increase of 19% to Residential

Correction - No data at all for China or Russia.

China I get as Google is kind of banned there , but Russia?

cloudatlas

deisedevil wrote: »

Is it? Where did you see that?

It's peaking over Easter.

RugbyLad11

EDit wrote: »

That’s the death rate with most people in the country shut up in their homes. If we just carried on as normal, the death count would be considerably higher

The people dying obviously contracted it before they were shut into their homes

owlbethere

Dcully wrote: »

Makes you wonder should we have strict quarantine for the flu then?
All i know is early jan i had the worse flu ive ever experienced, totally knocked me for 2 weeks with 5 days in the bed barely able to move a limb was crazy nasty.

Did you ever get a flu before and if so what was it like in comparison to your dose earlier this year.

The last time I got a flu was around about 2005 or 2006. I got it from a neighbour I think. I babysitting for them and they had a teenager in the house, in the bed with flu. I remember being stuck on the couch unable to move and struggling to and from the toilet. I think it was for about 2 or 3 days with another week or so to recover. As in tired easily with aches and pains.

My experience picking flu up from the neighbours shows how important it is to follow all the guidelines and not visit other peoples homes.

Rob A. Bank

FVP3 wrote: »

Not in terms of percentages, though. You are ignoring a few things:

1) Herd immunity can build up easier amongst the younger populations which will stop the spread even without intervention.
2) The disasters in Europe were due to the health system collapsing because of the strain of not having enough ICUs. Where the population is younger there is a built in "curve flattening mechanism"
3) Once a developed country has run out of ICUs it is in the same position as a developing country that had few to begin with.

In other words the developed world isn't really that ahead of the game this time.

Developing countries could get away with restricting their old people.

Herd immunity does not work in containing the pandemic until it reaches at least 60% of the population.

No one knows how long it will take to get 60% 'Herd Immunity'.

Months ? Years ?

is_that_so

cloudatlas wrote: »

It's peaking over Easter.

Yeah, that's the current expectation.

https://www.thejournal.ie/hse-projections-peak-coronavirus-april-5061127-Mar2020/

Away With The Fairies

Over 800 healthcare workers has the virus. In New York, 185 dead bodies just lying in a nursing home. Kitchen staff and cleaners not turning up to work here in nursing homes.

Our healthcare workers are most important people, we don't need nursing homes with dead bodies lying around. It really is like wartime medicine.

Everything I read is so heartbreaking.

BanditLuke

I see that young nurse in the UK passed away today due to the virus. 36 healthy with absolutely no underlying health issues.

R.I.P.

bekker

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

It's a very small jump from using this data derived from Google maps, to use it for tracing cases and contacts.

That is essentially what South Korea have done and they have been successful in containing the pandemic.

Which is more important, privacy or public health and more deaths?

What 'right' to privacy exists once your outside your own property, you are by definition in public.

When one uses social media in any form, part of the contract you always have to agree to includes a clause allowing all your information to be divulged to comply with a legal request from the authorities.

gozunda

weisses wrote: »

What part of mild don't you under
If They develop pneumonia or have organ damage it stops being a mild case

Perhaps you could deal with your ignorance of the subject by at least doing some fuking research before castigated others.

According to the report from the WHO–China Joint Mission on COVID-19, 80% of the 55 924 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in China to Feb 20, 2020, had mild-to-moderate disease, including both non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases, 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

Individuals including children who were found to positive for covid19 but otherwise asymptomatic also exhibited 'ground glass opacities' and damage to lung tissues after contracting the disease

Cases in children have been rare. Although most cases appear to be mild, all patients admitted to the hospital have pneumonia with infiltrates on chest x-ray and ground glass opacities on chest computed tomography.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2760782?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=content-shareicons&utm_content=article_engagement&utm_medium=social&utm_term=021020#.XkFCH5nPAnl.twitter

Plenty other references to this out there btw. Knock yourself out.

bilston

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Herd immunity does not work in containing the pandemic until it reaches at least 60% of the population.

No one knows how long it will take to get 60% 'Herd Immunity'.

Months ? Years ?

Maybe I'm wrong, but surely even if 20% of the population has immunity it would mean the virus spread would be slower which would reduce pressure on the hospitals?