CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Roger_007

otnomart wrote: »

Absolutely.
The elderly 80 plus years old in Italy are likely to be healthier overall than in developing countries: their existing conditions (high blood pressure, diabetes) for example are managed with the latest drugs available, they have access to the latest CT, MRI, PET, Radiotherapy machines...

It could be the other way around. The average 80 year old in Italy may only be still around because of the availability of drugs and medical interventions and are more vulnerable to a new pathogen with no effective treatment. The average 80 year old in the developing world is only still around because they have a strong immune system and might be better at fighting off a new invader.
It doesn’t matter how sophisticated the health system is, it’s of no use if there is no effective treatment available.

josip

bilston wrote: »

Maybe I'm wrong, but surely even if 20% of the population has immunity it would mean the virus spread would be slower which would reduce pressure on the hospitals?

Yes, if only a small percentage of that 20% are contagious.
It works the other way if a large percentage are still contagious, there are potentially a lot more opportunities to pass on the virus.

FVP3

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Herd immunity does not work in containing the pandemic until it reaches at least 60% of the population.

No one knows how long it will take to get 60% 'Herd Immunity'.

Months ? Years ?

Months, its a virus. That's what we are trying to stop.

Rob A. Bank

Frightening figures from New Orleans, which has a per-capita coronavirus death rate twice that of New York City !

The national co-morbidity figures suggest yet more terrifying death rates and a humanitarian disaster in the USA.

"The New Orleans metropolitan statistical area ranks among the worst in the United States for the percentage of residents with diabetes, high blood pressure and obesity, a Reuters analysis of CDC data shows. An estimated 39% have high blood pressure, 36% are obese and about 15% have diabetes.

Nationally, the median is 32% with high blood pressure, 31% obese and 11% with diabetes."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-new-orleans/why-is-new-orleans-coronavirus-death-rate-seven-times-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor-idUSKBN21K1B0

Downlinz

bilston wrote: »

Maybe I'm wrong, but surely even if 20% of the population has immunity it would mean the virus spread would be slower which would reduce pressure on the hospitals?

Infecting 20% of the population without overwhelming hospitals would also take years, particularly in Ireland given our low capacity.

loughside

This is what you get when you let the thick Irish gov. let loose shopping on AliEspress.com

12:11
Gowns sent from China 'not fit for purpose'

Part of a consignment of personal protective equipment recently distributed to Covid-19 test centres, mobile ambulance units and hospitals in the Republic of Ireland is being described as "not fit for purpose" and "unusable" by medical staff, RTE is reporting.

It says some new deliveries of PPE distributed this week contained protective gowns which are three-quarter length on the arm.
gowns

This means that they are unusable for staff, since they do not give full protective cover.

The gowns are understood to have been supplied from China.

Martina1991

is_that_so wrote:

I see the "game-changing" UK antibody tests are not quite as promising.

The antibody tests that claim to be quick, easy and available to buy in a shop are usually the least reliable.

The ones saying how great they are, are usually the companies that make them.

If and when serology tests for antibody detection become available, they will be performed in laboratories, not in the hands of the patient.

is_that_so

loughside wrote: »

This is what you get when you let the thick Irish gov. let loose shopping on AliEspress.com

12:11
Gowns sent from China 'not fit for purpose'

Part of a consignment of personal protective equipment recently distributed to Covid-19 test centres, mobile ambulance units and hospitals in the Republic of Ireland is being described as "not fit for purpose" and "unusable" by medical staff, RTE is reporting.

It says some new deliveries of PPE distributed this week contained protective gowns which are three-quarter length on the arm.
gowns

This means that they are unusable for staff, since they do not give full protective cover.

The gowns are understood to have been supplied from China.

Ah, a poster who reads a widespread issue into a single news report. That almost never happens here. I have no idea how prevalent it is but neither do you. In such whopping consignments there will be duds.

bilston

Downlinz wrote: »

Infecting 20% of the population without overwhelming hospitals would also take years, particularly in Ireland given our low capacity.

We need to know how many people have been infected. It could be more than expected, it could be less. Maybe 5% of the population has already been infected, they just haven't displayed symtpoms or suffered a lot, maybe not. It's probably why the WHO keeps telling us to test as many people as possible

caveat emptor

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Very interesting Data from Google showing the changes in movement patterns - Looks like every country is listed

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

Lots of details - Ireland data broken down by county

83% reduction in traffic to "Retail and Recreation" locations

37% Reduction to "Grocery & Pharmacy"

59% Reduction to Parks

78% reduction to Transit stations

52% reduction to workplaces

And a surprisingly low increase of 19% to Residential

That's brilliant. You can clearly see how that weekend everyone decided to go to the parks etc. Below is Dublin +80% :eek:

is_that_so

bilston wrote: »

We need to know how many people have been infected. It could be more than expected, it could be less. Maybe 5% of the population has already been infected, they just haven't displayed symtpoms or suffered a lot, maybe not. It's probably why the WHO keeps telling us to test as many people as possible

Testing and contact tracing to manage it as a public health issue. The full number may never be known but antibody tests when they come should give an indication.

Rob A. Bank

FVP3 wrote: »

Months, its a virus. That's what we are trying to stop.

And if the virus mutates in the second wave, like it did in the 1918 Spanish Flu... we start this crap all over again.

Also it is not known how long this 'Herd Immunity' will last. A percentage of the common cold is caused by coronaviruses and the 'immunity' gained does not stop next year's common cold infections.

This 'Herd Immunity' notion is a dangerous experiment on a nation's health and all that is predictable is that it will certainly cause geronticide.

Mental Mickey

Department Of Arts briefing?? Wtf lol? Just switched it on. Anything interesting?

Widdensushi

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Department Of Arts briefing?? Wtf lol? Just switched it on. Anything interesting?

no

is_that_so

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Department Of Arts briefing?? Wtf lol? Just switched it on. Anything interesting?

There's a fund being set up I believe.

tobefrank321

loughside wrote: »

This is what you get when you let the thick Irish gov. let loose shopping on AliEspress.com

12:11
Gowns sent from China 'not fit for purpose'

Part of a consignment of personal protective equipment recently distributed to Covid-19 test centres, mobile ambulance units and hospitals in the Republic of Ireland is being described as "not fit for purpose" and "unusable" by medical staff, RTE is reporting.

It says some new deliveries of PPE distributed this week contained protective gowns which are three-quarter length on the arm.
gowns

This means that they are unusable for staff, since they do not give full protective cover.

The gowns are understood to have been supplied from China.

Sounds like the equipment was cast offs or manufactured for Chinese citizens who are smaller in stature or else outfits more suitable for chemical warfare than day to day working a hospital.

Did they have anyone in China who could take a look over this consignment before it was despatched here? 203 million and no quality control it appears.

No more than the table and flyers at Dublin Airport, the fight against covid19 seems to be led by rank amateurs, from the civilian/non medical side of things.

ShayNanigan

moritz1234 wrote: »

The death rates don't seem to back up this conspiracy theory.

It's not a conspiracy theory. It was actually reported in the news in Italy that researchers determined from the mutations that the virus had been around since November. Deaths were not obviously listed as being caused by Covid-19 at the time but pneumonia.

Also there is public data from China stating the new unknown coronavirus was causing smaller outbreaks in November.

Here's one paper mentioning November:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

That's only one source. There are several research papers discussing this and how the virus has been around probably in October/November 2019.

And where's the conspiracy? It seems to have been a lab accident. Not a planned thing to kill all the people on the planet but an unfortunate accident involving laboratory staff.

is_that_so

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Sounds like the equipment was cast offs or manufactured for Chinese citizens who are smaller in stature or else outfits more suitable for chemical warfare than day to day working a hospital.

Did they have anyone in China who could take a look over this consignment before it was despatched here? 203 million and no quality control it appears.

No more than the table and flyers at Dublin Airport, the fight against covid19 seems to be led by rank amateurs, from the civilian/non medical side of things.

Someone at both ends and "part/a few/a handful/one or two" does not indicate a lack of QC, just that they found duds. There was a comment on the RTE feed that they have now "tweaked" the order.

topper75

Demographics is certainly a mitigating factor for the developing world.

Italy had 1 in 4 people over the age of 65 at the start of this year. 25% as opposed to our 15. Add in their social customs, industrial pollution, etc. and it is springtime for a respiratory virus such as Covid-19. Similar issue in Madrid/Barcelona.

Ireland after the great famine had something like a mere 3% in that bracket. This fits the profile of many of the poorer nations today.

careless sherpa

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Sounds like the equipment was cast offs or manufactured for Chinese citizens who are smaller in stature or else outfits more suitable for chemical warfare than day to day working a hospital.

Did they have anyone in China who could take a look over this consignment before it was despatched here? 203 million and no quality control it appears.

No more than the table and flyers at Dublin Airport, the fight against covid19 seems to be led by rank amateurs, from the civilian/non medical side of things.

Seems to be a battle to get any ppe gear shipments from China with the Americans trying to outbid plane loads of gear ready for take off and divert them to the states. Should have been sourced a month or two ago as is chaotic now

Wombatman

FishOnABike wrote: »

Medical resources tend to scale linearly with population. With a geometric or exponential growth rate for CoViD-19, the larger the population the larger the potential gap between medical resources and the number of infected people needing hospitalisation or ICU care.

I'm more comfortable to be living in a relatively small, well resourced country that introduced progressive containment / distancing / isolation policies reasonably quickly and as a result has deaths in the low to mid teens a day rather than over 1000 a day.

It's still all relative to population size.

A country of 5 million with 20 deaths per million having a worse experience than a country of 50 million with 10 deaths per million.

Yes more people are dying in the country with fifty million, but if you broke that country up into 10 small regions of 5 million, all 10 regions would have fewer deaths than the first country.

You say we are a well resourced country. I'm not sure that is the case for access to hospital services. Aren't we well don't the list in ICU beds per capita?

CIARAN_BOYLE

loughside wrote: »

This is what you get when you let the thick Irish gov. let loose shopping on AliEspress.com

12:11
Gowns sent from China 'not fit for purpose'

Part of a consignment of personal protective equipment recently distributed to Covid-19 test centres, mobile ambulance units and hospitals in the Republic of Ireland is being described as "not fit for purpose" and "unusable" by medical staff, RTE is reporting.

It says some new deliveries of PPE distributed this week contained protective gowns which are three-quarter length on the arm.
gowns

This means that they are unusable for staff, since they do not give full protective cover.

The gowns are understood to have been supplied from China.

Do you have a source with more detsils? Could they be designed for use with certain gloves which we neglected to order?

Jimmy Garlic

The death toll from the Orwellian lock down will far exceed that from the virus that the vast majority of people recover from in a week. Suicide alone will spike massively, especially when people realise they have no jobs to go back to.

blackcard

Scotland reported 46 new deaths today after 50 deaths yesterday. The reason for the increased number of deaths yesterday was down to 1 laboratory not reporting correctly, not sure why there is still a high number today. It was also reported that the figures will increase next week as they include cases where deaths were 'likely' to have been caused by the virus
Where people have covid-19 and underlying conditions, there are differences in what some countries put down as the cause of death, I.e. the underlying condition or covid-19.
Given that France also had a large increase in reported deaths yesterday as it included previously non-reported deaths in nursing homes, it may be some time before we get figures where you can make a like for like comparison.
Are post mortems carried on all deaths in Ireland to establish the cause?

is_that_so

Germany flattening.

Germany is flattening off, Health Minister Jens Spahn said. He said Germany had already obtained 1,500 new ventilators and added that these would be in clinics by April.

Ace2007

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Do you have a source with more detsils? Could they be designed for use with certain gloves which we neglected to order?

Don’t be silly of course the poster doesn’t have a source - it’s journalist - write anything look for figures and facts later.

Some PPE not usuable - is that 1% or 20% or does that matter when wanting to sensationalise a story?

It is understood to be from China - could the journalist not get confirmation on the story?

In recent years and with the explosion of online reporting - there is some amount of crap written that doesn’t contain definite information.

Wombatman

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

The death toll from the Orwellian lock down will far exceed that from the virus that the vast majority of people recover from in a week. Suicide alone will spike massively, especially when people realise they have no jobs to go back to.

Sources other than your own fevered mind?

is_that_so

blackcard wrote: »

Scotland reported 46 new deaths today after 50 deaths yesterday. The reason for the increased number of deaths yesterday was down to 1 laboratory not reporting correctly, not sure why there is still a high number today. It was also reported that the figures will increase next week as they include cases where deaths were 'likely' to have been caused by the virus
Where people have covid-19 and underlying conditions, there are differences in what some countries put down as the cause of death, I.e. the underlying condition or covid-19.
Given that France also had a large increase in reported deaths yesterday as it included previously non-reported deaths in nursing homes, it may be some time before we get figures where you can make a like for like comparison.
Are post mortems carried on all deaths in Ireland to establish the cause?

In general a PM is only used to establish cause of death, if it is unknown.

Doctors room ghost

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Sounds like the equipment was cast offs or manufactured for Chinese citizens who are smaller in stature or else outfits more suitable for chemical warfare than day to day working a hospital.

Did they have anyone in China who could take a look over this consignment before it was despatched here? 203 million and no quality control it appears.

No more than the table and flyers at Dublin Airport, the fight against covid19 seems to be led by rank amateurs, from the civilian/non medical side of things.

And varadkar on the phone a few days back thanking them for taking our money and blowing them kisses.
Time to play hard ball with the sneaky fcukers now and less of the nicey niceys.
If it’s not fit for purpose it should be flown back to them at their expense and tell them to rev up and fcuk off

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

Someone at both ends and "part/a few/a handful/one or two" does not indicate a lack of QC, just that they found duds. There was a comment on the RTE feed that they have now "tweaked" the order.

Nope, the reports I saw indicated most of the consignment was useless. I presume we'll be asking for a refund.

There's nothing to indicate the next consignment won't have similar issues. Which is why you ask someone to sign off on these consignments before they leave China. Even the WHO could do it.

We don't have time to be making basic mistakes. Every mistake we make from now on will cost lives and extend lockdown further.

FVP3

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

And if the virus mutates in the second wave, like it did in the 1918 Spanish Flu... we start this crap all over again.

Also it is not known how long this 'Herd Immunity' will last. A percentage of the common cold is caused by coronaviruses and the 'immunity' gained does not stop next year's common cold infections.

This 'Herd Immunity' notion is a dangerous experiment on a nation's health and all that is predictable is that it will certainly cause geronticide.

I am not urging herd immunity for western countries right now, I am saying quite clearly that the younger populations in developing countries will probably get mildly sick and protect the rest. The median african age is 18 or 19. That was what we were talking about.

Herd immunity is as effective or ineffective, by the way, as a vaccine. Neither is useful if a whole new strain of infection appears and dominates the season. I don't know how many people we are expecting to give the vaccine to but it won't be everybody so we expect some kind of herd immunity from vaccines too. The herd effect of vaccines is well known.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3171704/

Ace2007

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

And varadkar on the phone a few days back thanking them for taking our money and blowing them kisses.
Time to play hard ball with the sneaky fcukers now and less of the nicey niceys.
If it’s not fit for purpose it should be flown back to them at their expense and tell them to rev up and fcuk off

Do you have a source that the money has already being paid?

Ace2007

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nope, the reports I saw indicated most of the consignment was useless. I presume we'll be asking for a refund.

There's nothing to indicate the next consignment won't have similar issues. Which is why you ask someone to sign off on these consignments before they leave China. Even the WHO could do it.

We don't have time to be making basic mistakes. Every mistake we make from now on will cost lives and extend lockdown further.

Most? Can you provide a source to this please and thank you

MarkY91

Unleash the virus on the world and then sell the world dodgy PPE gear.

Those Chinese are a great bunch of lads.....

FVP3

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

And varadkar on the phone a few days back thanking them for taking our money and blowing them kisses.
Time to play hard ball with the sneaky fcukers now and less of the nicey niceys.
If it’s not fit for purpose it should be flown back to them at their expense and tell them to rev up and fcuk off

Thats a good idea, we should then source the rest of the PPE from the Antarctic.

FVP3

MarkY91 wrote: »

Unleash the virus on the world and then sell the world dodgy PPE gear.

Those Chinese are a great bunch of lads.....

I would like to sign up to your sinophobic newsletter.

ShayNanigan

A couple of months ago it was widely reported in several countries that Chinese people were instructed to buy masks, gloves, hand sanitiser, soap, paracetamol etc. to send home. Who knows how much was sent but reports from various countries seem to point at least hundreds of thousands if not more.

wakka12

I wonder what things will be like in another month...

If youd told me 3 weeks ago you think thered be 550,000 people infected and 40,000 dead in europe alone I would have said you were completely mad

shocksy

is_that_so wrote: »

Germany flattening.

Another country conveniently massaging their figures. I wouldn't trust their reports and they are far from flattening the curve.

Doctors room ghost

FVP3 wrote: »

Thats a good idea, we should then source the rest of the PPE from the Antarctic.

If it’s not fit for purpose you would be better off without it and keeping your money.

tuxy

The peoples representative in Kerry has made an important statement on the current situation

paw patrol

FVP3 wrote: »

Thats a good idea, we should then source the rest of the PPE from the Antarctic.

Russia seems to be handy out the supplies and man power like mad.
Italy , Iran and even USA received stuff. probably for future friendship and good PR ...

Whatever your view on Russia it's clear china isn't the only show in town

paw patrol

tuxy wrote: »

The peoples representative in Kerry has made an important statement on the current situation

he was spot on , fair play to him for saying it

devnull

Update from the UK - Matt Hancock has said they are prepared for more than 1,000 deaths a day for several days.

No other European country has posted a single day of over 1,000 - the UK lockdown coming too late and the too late pivot from herd immunity is likely to result in new records to be set in coming days.

The Conservatives have blood on their hands.

SuperRabbit

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

Italy's reported death rate is 10%+
Very convincing article here saying that is a result of massive under-reporting

ShayNanigan

wakka12 wrote: »

I wonder what things will be like in another month...

If youd told me 3 weeks ago you think thered be 550,000 people infected in europe and 40,000 dead I would have said you were completely mad

I fear not better... I've noticed that all the guys who were raving mad about the press making a huge fuss about a virus that doesn't even kill as many as the regular flu have disappeared from social media. Some of them were proudly announcing they had gone for a pint and the pub was packed. At the time I told them it was too early to make assumptions and suggested they took this seriously and got told off. I hope these people are just silent because they realised what is going on and not because they have been struck down by the virus.

Widdensushi

paw patrol wrote: »

he was spot on , fair play to him for saying it

if Marshall was as bad at public speaking it would be cut from the show

Urquell

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/some-protection-equipment-from-china-not-ideal-hse-says-1.4219452

Got to move away from China when this is finished. Its not worth whatever we are saving on cheap tat. Important stuff needs to be recentered here, or at a European level at the very least. If we pay more, we pay more.

This has to be the end of it. No excuses.

owlbethere

ShayNanigan wrote: »

A couple of months ago it was widely reported in several countries that Chinese people were instructed to buy masks, gloves, hand sanitiser, soap, paracetamol etc. to send home. Who knows how much was sent but reports from various countries seem to point at least hundreds of thousands if not more. No-one batted an eyelid. Now western countries are buying PPE from China and getting inferior stuff back. Does this really surprise anyone?

Do you have any links for them reports please?

A couple of months ago - how many months ago? - Before the Christmas? January?

storker

tuxy wrote: »

The peoples representative in Kerry has made an important statement on the current situation

Wouldn't it be great if Irish politicians could even manage to string a coherent sentence together? "...about the...the...the...eh...eh...eh..." It's almost unwatchable.