CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

owlbethere

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Italy today
4,585 new cases and 766 deaths in Italy.

How are they having such high number of new cases?

Is their lockdown working at all?

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

paleoperson

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Italian testing numbers are back high again.

They were very low for a few days.

They've been fractionally decreased because of the lockdown.

40-70% of people will likely end up getting it no matter what we do as Merkhel and many top scientists have said. Notice how they say flatten the curve, not reduce the amount under the curve.

The idea of two weeks or four weeks and we'll be back to normal is pure farce.

They will start attributing many of the deaths to other causes just like China and start up the economy again.

ITman88

paleoperson wrote: »

There might be something to taking more care of the flu during winter season, but the flu can not and should not be compared to or even mentioned in the same sentence as this.

The flu is generally something only the elderly die of and even they have a pretty good chance of fighting it off. What's more the flu is rare in itself and is harder to catch, it's not as contagious. When some people do have the flu YES of course you must be very careful around them.

The flu takes people who are on death's door in general, people on beds waiting to die. This is routinely taking immunocompromised people or those in their 50s, 60s and 70s who may be in fine health and have decades of life expectancy left. Here's one example:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/areema-nasreen-death-coronavirus-healthy-nhs-nurse-a4405961.html

This isn't something you can pull out of the past few years like with the flu, this is happening to many people every day. Also the flu occurs over the whole year, there is no extraordinary spike, that's another element to it.

I have personally never heard or read of anyone dying with the flu, especially not a young person. You would now and again hear of celebrities or people well known dying of car crashes or rare cancers or something like that, I don't believe I have ever in my life heard of someone like that dying of the flu, not unless they were really elderly and frail then maybe it was the final thing.

The only correct part of your statement is that the flu is less contagious.

Everything else displays an ignorance to what being happening in Europe and the UK for a number of years.

Just because you didn’t hear of young flu deaths it didn’t happen. 😯

Naggdefy

owlbethere wrote: »

How are they having such high number of new cases?

Is their lockdown working at all?

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

China may be economical with the truth. Also they welded peoples' doors to keep them in. Different definition of lockdown.

South Korea is more of a good example. Still about 90 new cases a day.

the.red.baron

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's scary.

if they haven't tested them they can't be sure what it was, perhaps that explains it


look the UK, nursing homes etc, that man who died in the nursing home here without a test, how was he recorded

Beasty

paleoperson wrote: »

First of all you are brain dead. You don't know anything, you don't understand anything. Don't for one second think I'm considering talking with you as some sort of argument or discussion, you're a joke.

My stats are the most objective ones available from WHO and worldometers.info

It is widely believed they are underestimates of those actually getting the virus and dying from it. Many more are dying from coronavirus without being tested for it, they are not included. The UK has estimated it could be actually 24% greater or more in their country.

There are also many who are currently in the process of dying and many are left with life altering complications that slash their future life expectancy.

A month ago I might have understood some of your horse****, now it's like you're insane.

You're a joke.

Threadbanned

bekker

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That's wrong. The median is the value that separates the high half of a data set from the lower half

Say a 1 year old an 84 year old and an 85 year old die from CV. The median age is not 43.

Median is used rather than average because an extreme value can heavily skew an average in a small dataset.

What's the median of 2,3,4,5,5,5,6,6,6,8,45,67,77,98 ? Hint it's not 50.

MD1990

Id say Italy are noe doing more testing which is resulting in more cases still.

They'll & the rest of Europe may need to be in a lockdown until a vaccine comes out.

stephenjmcd

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Italian testing numbers are back high again.

They were very low for a few days.

It still looks like they're hopefully on the downwards curve now, if it can continue for the next week then it'll be good news. Looks like about 1400 recoveries today also.

the.red.baron

ITman88 wrote: »

The only correct part of your statement is that the flu is less contagious.

Everything else displays an ignorance to what being happening in Europe and the UK for a number of years.

Just because you didn’t hear of young flu deaths it didn’t happen. ��

is the flu less contagious though, or are you just not passing it on because of immunity

kilkenny31

owlbethere wrote: »

How are they having such high number of new cases?

Is their lockdown working at all?

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

Italy has a very old population so there's a good chance it has struck at a lot of nursing homes and hospitals resulting in a lot of deaths. Also people may be staying at home but Italians and Spanish live in apartment blocks and as was seen is SARS these virus's can rip through apartment blocks. As regard the Chinese numbers. They have told so many lives its hard to take what they say as fact. There is a lot of reports that suggest maybe close to 80000 people could have died.

the.red.baron

munsterlegend wrote: »

Better than being AVERAGE.

why do you have be so MEAN

stephenjmcd

owlbethere wrote: »

How are they having such high number of new cases?

Is their lockdown working at all?

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

They're initial lockdown wasn't really a lockdown and alot in the north upped and went south which I'd say is accounting for a good lot of the cases. Plus the age of the population could be a factor.

The new cases are pretty steady though for the last few days so its working alright but only been a strict lockdown for what the last 2-3 weeks, so it'll definitely be extended out.

FishOnABike

Wombatman wrote: »

"spread for longer and at an ever increasing rate". What? It takes longer, faster?

Are your talking about population density or size?

You can only compare between countries in per capita terms.

Both longer and faster (at an ever increasing rate).

It takes more time for a virus to burn its way through a larger population of potential hosts so it will take longer to get through a population of 50 million than 5 million.

The longer a virus continues unhindered through a population not only does the number of people exposed / infected increase but because of the geometric or exponential nature of transmission / infection, the rate of transmission / infection also increases. Not only are there more new patients but the rate at which new patients are presenting is also increasing.

If it is not brought under effective control early geometric or exponential growth can very soon get to unmanageable numbers, even for a large country. A small delay in action can have a significant effect as can be seen in the UK figures and current projections of over 1000 deaths daily.

All other things being equal, at the same point in time a less populous area or country is further along its 'outbreak curve' than a more populous area or country. If a comparison is made on a per capita basis then it also needs to take into account where in their 'outbreak curve' each country is.

At the beginning of an outbreak, before exposure reaches 60% to 70% and herd immunity starts to have a significant effect, a simple unscaled numeric comparison is more representative of how effectively an outbreak or cluster has been contained.

A person won't infect sixty times the number of people in a week in the USA than they would in Ireland so simple per capita comparisons can't be made.

Unhindered, a source of infection should initially spread at the same absolute rate irrespective of the relative population sizes. If it spreads more slowly in one than another then it is because if natural and/or anthropogenic mitigation. e.g. population density, early introduction of socual distancing measures, progressive shutdowns, restriction of travel, contact tracing and isolation.

I think and hope Ireland has done just enough, just in time to keep the situation within our capacity to deal with. Countries that do to little or leave it too late will pay a disproportionate price.

is_that_so

wakka12 wrote: »

I cant believe how high the cases and deaths in Italy are remaining. Youd think thered be a significant drop at least by now, its been so long since the lockdown began

The rate of increase is down to about 4% so hopefully not far off peak. Regrettably, they will have a large death toll for a while but it should start to decline once the rate of increase gets close to zero.

storker

jackboy wrote: »

I’m thinking after this maybe there will be some extra actions taken every winter to reduce flu deaths.

Most people still going to work even though they are in a state with colds and flus may change
.

This occurred to me too. It would be great if this experience put an end to people displaying their heroic devotion to their employer by bringing their germs to work and inflicting their illnesses on their colleagues. The explosion in remote working will hopefully mean that there's at lot less of this nonsense...and less employers who expect it.

tobefrank321

paleoperson wrote: »

They've been fractionally decreased because of the lockdown.

40-70% of people will likely end up getting it no matter what we do as Merkhel and many top scientists have said. Notice how they say flatten the curve, not reduce the amount under the curve.

The idea of two weeks or four weeks and we'll be back to normal is pure farce.

They will start attributing many of the deaths to other causes just like China and start up the economy again.

I think we can forget about normality.

In China they are getting back to normality but it still involves significant restrictions and continuing to wear gloves and masks when out. That will be the new normal. We will have to look at re-opening businesses and shops here but with Perspex glass to protect staff. That will be the new normal. Construction workers will be encouraged to keep some distance from others on site and might be encouraged to rotate days on site. Temperature checks would have to be common place to enter common areas. Without them, we'll never be able to reopen spaces like pubs, clubs or cinemas. Someone with a temperature of 38degrees shouldn't be allowed on a plane flying out or flying in here. And those coming from hotspots will have to isolate.

These are the kinds of things we'd have to do to get back to "normal".

Professor Moriarty

the.red.baron wrote: »

if they haven't tested them they can't be sure what it was, perhaps that explains it


look the UK, nursing homes etc, that man who died in the nursing home here without a test, how was he recorded

Yeah but the unexpected deaths is double those attributed to Covid-19. What else could explain such a spike other than, primarily, unreported/untested Covid-19 deaths?

owlbethere

owlbethere wrote: »

How come china was able to lower their new cases within a matter of weeks and it keeps growing in Italy?

China are lying through their teeth.

ITman88

the.red.baron wrote: »

is the flu less contagious though, or are you just not passing it on because of immunity

That is quiet possible.

Interestingly flu deaths aren’t always counted, ie If a person is diagnosed with influenza dies it’s not noted as cause of death.

The opposite is true of covid, if one tests positive it’s recorded as a cause of death.

kilkenny31

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

is_that_so

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah but the unexpected deaths is double those attributed to Covid-19. What else could explain such a spike other than, primarily, unreported/untested Covid-19 deaths?

I think that is something that may never be known, we may not even get a good approximation on the numbers actually infected but we will still have a lot of data and more importantly a much better understanding of this thing.

wakka12

paleoperson wrote: »

There might be something to taking more care of the flu during winter season, but the flu can not and should not be compared to or even mentioned in the same sentence as this.

The flu is generally something only the elderly die of and even they have a pretty good chance of fighting it off. What's more the flu is rare in itself and is harder to catch, it's not as contagious. When some people do have the flu YES of course you must be very careful around them.

The flu takes people who are on death's door in general, people on beds waiting to die. This is routinely taking immunocompromised people or those in their 50s, 60s and 70s who may be in fine health and have decades of life expectancy left. Here's one example:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/areema-nasreen-death-coronavirus-healthy-nhs-nurse-a4405961.html

This isn't something you can pull out of the past few years like with the flu, this is happening to many people every day. Also the flu occurs over the whole year, there is no extraordinary spike, that's another element to it.

I have personally never heard or read of anyone dying with the flu, especially not a young person. You would now and again hear of celebrities or people well known dying of car crashes or rare cancers or something like that, I don't believe I have ever in my life heard of someone like that dying of the flu, not unless they were really elderly and frail then maybe it was the final thing.

Influenza is actually one of the most common causes of deaths in the world. It is the 8th most comon cause of death, typically representing about 2% of deaths in the USA every year. That is more people than are lost through suicide.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929#influenza-and-pneumonia

However, coronavirus , if left uncontrolled at least, would likely become the third leading cause of death worlwide after heart disease and cancer. Currently and for the last few days it has been the third leading cause of death in the US and many of the harder hit European countries

stephenjmcd

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I think we can forget about normality.

In China they are getting back to normality but it still involves significant restrictions and continuing to wear gloves and masks when out. That will be the new normal. We will have to look at re-opening businesses and shops here but with Perspex glass to protect staff. That will be the new normal. Construction workers will be encouraged to keep some distance from themselves and might be encouraged to rotate days on site. Temperature checks would have to be common place to enter common areas. Without them, we'll never be able to reopen spaces like pubs, clubs or cinemas. Someone with a temperature of 38degrees shouldn't be allowed on a plane flying out or flying in here. And those coming from hotspots will have to isolate.

These are the kinds of things we'd have to do to get back to "normal".

theres points there that aren't practical in the long run, but I do agree that the likes of perspex etc in shops are here to stay, they're of benefit to shops regardless of covid so they should stay. Might also change peoples habits when out in public going forward.

Just on the china point, their normal life was masks anyway with air pollution so that's nothing new there.

podgeandrodge

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

But in the absence of a standard amount of testing, which at least we had a while back, the figures are probably distorted no?

davemckenna25

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

I doubt we are near our peak yet... not even close..:(

Stheno

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

No, we have not reached the peak.

Your optimism is to be applauded

Harry Palmr

What are doctor certs saying? For example if someone in their 80s with a history of weak heart complications gets a bug and it finishes them off do they test for Covid 19 and if it's a positive is that considered the cause of death?

munsterlegend

the.red.baron wrote: »

why do you have be so MEAN

If you can’t take it don’t give it.

is_that_so

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

Alas not yet. The rate of increase is what is of more interest and whether it is heading downward.

stephenjmcd

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

No chance, at least another week - 10 days is what they seem to be planning towards.

c.p.w.g.w

Does the nurse really need to wearing the uniform at the presser in London?

MrMusician18

bekker wrote: »

What's the median of 2,3,4,5,5,5,6,6,6,8,45,67,77,98 ? Hint it's not 50.

It isn't 50, obviously. It's 6.

podgeandrodge

the.red.baron wrote: »

why do you have be so MEAN

munsterlegend wrote: »

If you can’t take it don’t give it.

Is this some mathematical joke that I don't understand, or did you not get his joke?

ITman88

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What are doctor certs saying? For example if someone in their 80s with a history of weak heart complications gets a bug and it finishes them off do they test for Covid 19 and if it's a positive is that considered the cause of death?

They are in the UK, it’s harder to find that information for Ireland

wakka12

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What are doctor certs saying? For example if someone in their 80s with a history of weak heart complications gets a bug and it finishes them off do they test for Covid 19 and if it's a positive is that considered the cause of death?

I would assume on the actual death cert that multiple causes of death would be listed together, but for coronavirus statistics the death is counted as somebody killed by the virus

stephenjmcd

Just on Italy, these are the totals since the start after today's numbers have been announced

Coronavirus Cases:
119,827

Deaths:
14,681

Recovered:
19,758

ACTIVE CASES
85,388

Currently Infected Patients
81,320 (95%)
in Mild Condition

4,068 (5%)
Serious or Critical

c.p.w.g.w

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What are doctor certs saying? For example if someone in their 80s with a history of weak heart complications gets a bug and it finishes them off do they test for Covid 19 and if it's a positive is that considered the cause of death?

Its not consider the direct cause of death, but they are included in the stats as person who have died with covid-19...our 98 deaths all tested positive for covid-19, but its not necessarily the reason they passed

is_that_so

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Is this some mathematical joke that I don't understand, or did you not get his joke?

Yeah it's that average, mean, median nonsense that's been bouncing around here for the week! All about the stats. You can blame the CMO for starting it!

AdrianG08

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What are doctor certs saying? For example if someone in their 80s with a history of weak heart complications gets a bug and it finishes them off do they test for Covid 19 and if it's a positive is that considered the cause of death?

Mother in law picked it up and it deffo finished her off despite underlying condition (cancer and diabetes). She was near the end, but died in isolation ward (not ICU) on her own.

It was not included in the Covid19 figures, know this for sure despite having tested positive for it at the hospital. Not trying to be the contrarion but know this for a fact, as we noticed her passing wasn't mentioned when figures were read out in following few days.

the.red.baron

munsterlegend wrote: »

If you can’t take it don’t give it.

speaking from some painful experience there i reckon

tom1ie

What time does the cmo go on tv at to give and explain the numbers and updates?

Rvsmmnps

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Just on Italy, these are today's totals

Coronavirus Cases:
119,827

Deaths:
14,681

Recovered:
19,758

ACTIVE CASES
85,388

Currently Infected Patients
81,320 (95%)
in Mild Condition

4,068 (5%)
Serious or Critical

The death total is since the start of this debacle not the start today.

shocksy

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

You are extremely wrong. you really shouldn't predict these things because you will only disappoint yourself and others on this thread. We are no where near our peak.

AdrianG08

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Its not consider the direct cause of death, but they are included in the stats as person who have died with covid-19...our 98 deaths all tested positive for covid-19, but its not necessarily the reason they passed

Not always the case

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

I would assume on the actual death cert that multiple causes of death would be listed together, but for coronavirus statistics the death is counted as somebody killed by the virus

In the UK the coronavirus death number is described as ‘deaths of people who have tested positive for COVID-19’, meaning that they might have died of something relatively unrelated, and might have died anyway. What is the number described as here?

owlbethere

How was TB treated back in the day?

It was contagious. Merlin park hospital in Galway was an isolation hospital. How was it treated. Did the country go into lockdown?

is_that_so

tom1ie wrote: »

What time does the cmo go on tv at to give and explain the numbers and updates?

Check out the sticky at the top of the forum!

Away With The Fairies

So China bought supplies from other countries and is sending the rest of the world ****ty PPE gear?

What the actual fcuk?

tom1ie

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I see the press briefing is 5.30 today. I suspect we have reached out peak of new cases so I doubt we will see a significant rise today. I'd imagine we will see anywhere between 200-400 New cases for the next few weeks and probably 10-20 deaths daily. Maybe the deaths might peak at 30+ for a few days.

What makes you so sure of this?