CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Harry Palmr

splinter65 wrote: »

Is that better then yesterday? Or did the 22 all die in the ICU ?

yesterday 402 new cases, 13 deaths.

BLIZZARD7

SusanC10 wrote: »

Does that mean that only 15 out of the 120 dead were in ICU ?

Yes

Shn99

Whats the big secret with the number of tests?

fritzelly

wakka12 wrote: »

16 more admitted. There were 96 in ICU yesterday

109 yesterday (or rather per the briefings figures date)

Stheno

SusanC10 wrote: »

Does that mean that only 15 out of the 120 dead were in ICU ?

Yes

is_that_so

CMO is great at just swatting away questions!

deisedevil

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

I was referring to only Irish numbers and how they are recorded, as Dr Holohan said last night

Sorry, I wasn't at all clear. My point is that it's now being realised that the amount of deaths due to covid-19 are being underestimated.

is_that_so

Shn99 wrote: »

Whats the big secret with the number of tests?

They have a process and a system.

branie2

RIP, the 22 people who died

YFlyer

wakka12 wrote: »

No, only 15 people admitted to ICU have died. So most of the deaths appear to be occurring at home/nursing homes

If true. That's crazy.

Are there medical staff going to infected peoples homes?

saabsaab

fritzelly wrote: »

These figures are not nice and we still have 2 weeks to the anticipated peak

True. At what number of confirmed cases would we start to see a leveling off, if there is to be one, in the next month?


15,000 20,000 30,000 or more?

ParkRunner

So that’s 11% rise in total cases and 5% rise in new cases compared to yesterday by my rough maths

Cody montana

Surge?

harr

Does this mean that’s most are dying before test results are coming back .. with so little of the dead actually going through ICU

podgeandrodge

George asked a good question - when is the surge, and why, if we are minimising our contacts. Is it possible to figure out when?

Answer - "we don't know, we don't know how successful we will be in terms of growth - currently 10% which is better than 33% at outset.

But if we continue to grow at 10% we will have a significant challenge, so need to reduce that 10%.

So if it is a wave, the lower it grows, the lower the peak, and further into the future the peak is. Next 7 days crucial right now. We think next week is time for assessment of the measures and allow us to make better estimates of the question being asked."

poppers

harr wrote: »

Does this mean that’s most are dying before test results are coming back .. with so little of the dead actually going through ICU

Doubt they are waiting for results to get people into icu.

hmmm

I think we need to distinguish between a community spread surge, and point outbreaks in very vulnerable locations.

Unfortunately there does appear to be several outbreaks in nursing homes, and these will likely lead to higher death rates. Similarly if there is spread within a hospital, we could see high death rates - neither of these indicates widespread infection across the community.

harr

So Monday or Tuesday we are looking at big numbers when the results return from Germany .. thousands maybe

Beasty

Naggdefy wrote: »

China may be economical with the truth. Also they welded peoples' doors to keep them in.

Why do people keep repeating this allegation?

It was reported they welded doors to ensure only one access/exit point - it was to monitor/restrict movements. Not very nice, but not a literal "lock-in"

easypazz

podgeandrodge wrote: »

George asked a good question - when is the surge, and why, if we are minimising our contacts. Is it possible to figure out when?

Answer - "we don't know, we don't know how successful we will be in terms of growth - currently 10% which is better than 33% at outset.

But if we continue to grow at 10% we will have a significant challenge, so need to reduce that 10%.

So if it is a wave, the lower it grows, the lower the peak, and further into the future the peak is. Next 7 days crucial right now. We think next week is time for assessment of the measures and allow us to make better estimates of the question being asked."

George asked a good question?

political analyst

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/

Professor Neil Ferguson, of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London, produced a paper predicting that Britain was on course to lose 250,000 people during the coronavirus epidemic unless stringent measures were taken. His research is said to have convinced Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his advisors to introduce the lockdown.

However, it has now emerged that Ferguson has been criticised in the past for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions which nevertheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy.

He was behind disputed research that sparked the mass culling of farm animals during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds.

And separately he also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or ‘mad cow disease’) and its equivalent in sheep if it made the leap to humans. To date there have been fewer than 200 deaths from the human form of BSE and none resulting from sheep to human transmission.

Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, who co-authored both of the critical reports, said that they had been intended as a “cautionary tale” about how mathematical models are sometimes used to predict the spread of disease.

He described his sense of “déjà vu” when he read Mr Ferguson’s Imperial College paper on coronavirus, which was published earlier this month.

An Ciarraioch

The lockdown certainly won't be lifted before May, if there's no levelling off in the coming weeks.

froog

Shn99 wrote: »

Whats the big secret with the number of tests?

It's no secret, the testing program is a complete and utter disaster. thousands waiting on test results for several days, likely 10s of thousands of untested infected out there.

easypazz

harr wrote: »

So Monday or Tuesday we are looking at big numbers when the results return from Germany .. thousands maybe

ICU numbers and deaths is the real measure.

A big backlog will suddenly give us a big number.

hmmm

NDWC wrote: »

156 in ICU since it began, 110 in ICU currently, 31 discharged, 15 died

Has anyone done a graph of ICU numbers? It's easy to miss new cases, not so easy to miss people who have died or need ICU. Would be interested to see those trends as it doesn't appear to me that ICU numbers are spiking.

Assetbacked

Would these new cases and deaths be as a result of transmission prior to the stringent measures were brought in just before Paddy's Day? So we don't have data on the impact of the measures yet?

Edit: Confirmed that there is no data from the impact of the measures on containing the virus as of yet and we won't have sight until late next week. As such, talk of reducing the measures, extending the same or introducing more stringent measures is premature as of yet;

https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-new-cases-department-of-health-5065427-Apr2020/

Ray Donovan

According to worldometers of all countries with over 1,000 cases we are 12th in the WORLD for cases per million people at 865. Is that not a very frightening statistic or am I totally missing something?

rafatoni

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The lockdown certainly won't be lifted before May, if there's no levelling off in the coming weeks.

Banker. Be another 2 weeks from easter sunday which is needed TBF.

hmmm

froog wrote: »

It's no secret, the testing program is a complete and utter disaster. thousands waiting on test results for several days, likely 10s of thousands of untested infected out there.

It's not a "complete and utter disaster", the testing program is very well conceived and quickly scaled up. We have limited supplies of critical equipment, the same as the rest of the world, but your negativity is bull****.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1245787069076602880?s=19

josip

I think the worst is over folks.



Social distancing has been effective and it looks like we started it early enough.
The number of Covid in ICU has been stable for 2 days (bright blue line)
Even the old plot of total ICU admissions (light blue line) is now trending below the best case scenario of 5 days ago.
There won't be any additional measures needed.

It's now a question of what restrictions they will relax and when.
Deaths will unfortunately continue to occur, but they are a lagging indicator and will also decrease within a week or two.

bekker

owlbethere wrote: »

How was TB treated back in the day?

It was contagious. Merlin park hospital in Galway was an isolation hospital. How was it treated. Did the country go into lockdown?

For a period it was into a form of terror, special mobile x-ray vans going road by road, with lines of children waiting to be x-rayed, if positive it could be off to a sanitorium.

Stheno

harr wrote: »

Does this mean that’s most are dying before test results are coming back .. with so little of the dead actually going through ICU

No. They covered this last night

Not everyone who has died was a candidate for ICU due partly to underlying conditions.

While they tested positive, and are reported as a Covid death it's not necessarily what killed them

s1ippy

So only 15 from ICU have died. Nursing homes are not admitting their residents so presumably the families have lost their right to sign off on any DNR clause on their family members?

Low numbers in ICU likely indicate that in the community, people are dying suddenly. I know I'd wait until I was completely suffocated before alerting anyone for assistance knowing that it would probably make me even sicker. It just goes to show the lack of faith in the HSE, people not attending hospital as they would rather actually take their chances at home without help.

stephenjmcd

harr wrote: »

So Monday or Tuesday we are looking at big numbers when the results return from Germany .. thousands maybe

There'll be an increase in results but thousands might be a bit much.

Anyway its the hosptial numbers you've to watch.

rossie1977

Assetbacked wrote: »

Would these new cases and deaths be as a result of transmission prior to the stringent measures were brought in just before Paddy's Day? So we don't have data on the impact of the measures yet?

On average its 20 days from infection to death so most likely many were infected before paddy's day.

Problem though is that many of the recent Irish deaths are nursing homes not in ICU. Going to be very difficult to contain spread in those facilities as its the nurses and carers spreading it to the elderly

hmmm

Ray Donovan wrote: »

According to worldometers of all countries with over 1,000 cases we are 12th in the WORLD for cases per million people at 865. Is that not a very frightening statistic or am I totally missing something?

It's a spurious stat and not a useful figure. The UK is testing barely 3 times as many as we are, despite having over 10 times our population, and so naturally they have less reported cases per million than we have - because their testing is rubbish.

A more useful figure to compare I think is deaths and ICU numbers.

owlbethere

owlbethere wrote: »

How was TB treated back in the day?

It was contagious. Merlin park hospital in Galway was an isolation hospital. How was it treated. Did the country go into lockdown?

People can contract TB bacteria but never develop TB disease which is the infectious and killer part.

When a person's immune system deteriorates for what ever reason this is when TB disease can develop.

Given the political situation, living conditions and family sizes of the time it was easily spread once at disease stage which caused the high number of deaths and it was mainly seen as a disease of the poor.

It's not comparable with covid IMHO as we don't have the knowledge around covid that we have for TB, but some similar attitudes being displayed around it from some people advocating people being let get it and see what happens, people giving out about measures being taken when comparing both with my dad.

easypazz

froog wrote: »

It's no secret, the testing program is a complete and utter disaster. thousands waiting on test results for several days, likely 10s of thousands of untested infected out there.

And all isolating. The way things are going most of the 424 people announced today should be in recovery now.

cameramonkey

poppers wrote: »

Doubt they are waiting for results to get people into icu.

I would say doctors, nursing homes and families are making decisions not to got to ICU with older sicker people. The trauma of leaving your home or nursing home and being sent to ICU with maybe a small chance of survival will mean that many will chose to stay where they are and take their chances.

RebelButtMunch

s1ippy wrote: »

So only 15 from ICU have died. Nursing homes are not admitting their residents so presumably the families have lost their right to sign off on any DNR clause on their family members?

Low numbers in ICU likely indicate that in the community, people are dying suddenly. I know I'd wait until I was completely suffocated before alerting anyone for assistance knowing that it would probably make me even sicker. It just goes to show the lack of faith in the HSE, people not attending hospital as they would rather actually take their chances at home without help.

OR people have underlying conditions and unfortunately bringing them to ICU wouldnt make a difference.

BLIZZARD7

josip wrote: »

Panic over folks.






Job done, social distancing has been effective.
The number of Covid in ICU has been stable for 2 days (bright blue line)
Even the old plot of total ICU admissions (light blue line) is now trending below the best case scenario of 5 days ago.
There won't be any additional measures needed.

It's now a question of what restrictions they will relax and when.
Deaths will unfortunately continue to occur, but they are a lagging indicator and will also decrease within a week or two.

Not sure we can say 'Job Done' when we don't have accurate testing figures yet. There's still the backlog factor.

Good to see the ICU numbers slow in increase though.

fullstop

Cody montana wrote: »

Surge?

Are you going to say this every day now?

take everything

podgeandrodge wrote: »

George asked a good question - when is the surge, and why, if we are minimising our contacts. Is it possible to figure out when?

Answer - "we don't know, we don't know how successful we will be in terms of growth - currently 10% which is better than 33% at outset.

But if we continue to grow at 10% we will have a significant challenge, so need to reduce that 10%.

So if it is a wave, the lower it grows, the lower the peak, and further into the future the peak is. Next 7 days crucial right now. We think next week is time for assessment of the measures and allow us to make better estimates of the question being asked."

Surely any growth (or over 1) means just pushing the peak further out. The only way this is going away is if there is negative growth (under 1).

The PPE ****up is like a Monty Python sketch.

bilston

Dr. Colossus wrote: »

It's not meaningless. They are the most accurate stats available.

It is completely meaningless.

The 10% mortality rate bears no relation whatsoever to the reality. It's not even close.

CIARAN_BOYLE

I like that one of the journalists asked for the medium for all figures and Tony said they could calculate in future.

froog

hmmm wrote: »

It's not a "complete and utter disaster", the testing program is very well conceived and quickly scaled up. We have limited supplies of critical equipment, the same as the rest of the world, but your negativity is bull****.

the lack of reagents is mostly a smokescreen. we were testing everyone with a sniffle or headache in the first few weeks and it quickly got way out of control. so they had to tighten testing criteria, but the damage was already done. lots of people that likely actually were infected never got tested. i personally know several people that have been waiting for a test or results for over a week. i have heard many other stories of people promised tests who never got them. a lot of people are not even bothering calling for a test now. almost certainly the number of infected is several times what the declared figure is. not to mention the constant evasion of how many have been tested at the press conference. as i type right now I hear tony h refusing to confirm how many healthcare workers have been tested.

i'm not sure how in any way you could call this a success.

podgeandrodge

take everything wrote: »

Surely any growth (or over 1) means just pushing the peak further out. The only way this is going away is if there is negative growth (under 1).

The PPE ****up is like a Monty Python sketch.

Yes, he said that in my quote - the peak will go further out. It's about slowing down the pressure on the health service rather than making it go away right now is my understanding.

JP Liz V1

fritzelly wrote: »

These figures are not nice and we still have 2 weeks to the anticipated peak

When is the surge / peak expected, April 19th?

pjohnson

The highest death toll yet as dribblers here are trying to claim we can start easing restrictions.


Bizarre ignorance.