CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

JP Liz V1

What happened to the talk of the app and 15,000 tests per day, is that just all talk never happening

fritzelly

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvLx17NNlu0&fbclid=IwAR1mBU86KNVQEIHLseid9C4ZMNhkjTjE8b7sesn8AclrSWezGGIj8sqhVM4

Stop link dumping conspiracy videos

Stheno

kilkenny31 wrote: »

It's probably very difficult to "sort out" nursing homes. You have so many carers looking after the patients. One carer gets infected and infects one or two other carers which go on to infect the hospital. Very difficult to control this.

Yes I worded that wrongly. Meant to say they need to sort them out with full PPE at least and training

weldoninhio

hmmm wrote: »

It's not a "complete and utter disaster", the testing program is very well conceived and quickly scaled up. We have limited supplies of critical equipment, the same as the rest of the world, but your negativity is bull****.

It’s an absolute mess. Stevie wonder could see that.

is_that_so

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What happened to the talk of the app and 15,000 tests per day, is that just all talk never happening

Ongoing on the app and still the plan on the testing.

easypazz

fritzelly wrote: »

Even at a generous 5% daily increase that is still 8000+ in the space of 2 weeks from now. You can guesstimate the deaths and ICU from that...not good

5% should become 4% after a few days, then 3%, 2%, 1%

Stheno

weldoninhio wrote: »

It’s an absolute mess. Stevie wonder could see that.

Let's see the stats Tuesday and what they say

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Even at a generous 5% daily increase that is still 8000+ in the space of 2 weeks from now. You can guesstimate the deaths and ICU from that...not good

The best case scenario when this went global in early March was we would end up with deaths in the low thousands. People need to prepare themselves for this. When all is said and done and the final reckoning is done if we end up with less than 5,000 deaths the country has done very well

otnomart

ShayNanigan wrote: »

It's not a conspiracy theory. It was actually reported in the news in Italy that researchers determined from the mutations that the virus had been around since November. Deaths were not obviously listed as being caused by Covid-19 at the time but pneumonia.

Also there is public data from China stating the new unknown coronavirus was causing smaller outbreaks in November.

Here's one paper mentioning November:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

That's only one source. There are several research papers discussing this and how the virus has been around probably in October/November 2019.

And where's the conspiracy? It seems to have been a lab accident. Not a planned thing to kill all the people on the planet but an unfortunate accident involving laboratory staff.

"This phylogeny shows an initial emergence in Wuhan, China, in Nov-Dec 2019". Source: Nextstrain https://nextstrain.org/ - visualising data from the GISAID Initiative - the international sharing of virus sequences https://www.gisaid.org/
See also this post which clarifies that: "The earliest genome sequences appear in Wuhan, and all the sequences from around the world radiate out from that origin in all directions."

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113005144&postcount=1706

Naggdefy

We'll have lower cases over the weekend due to testing rate I'd imagine. When we record 200 cases tomorrow and Sunday we don't want to be pulled into a false sense of security.

Everyone is doing their best. The nursing homes being a problem of course.

JP Liz V1

Sono Topolino wrote: »

I wish those assholes who went to Cheltenham and got infected despite our collective pleading with them to cop the feck on could be denied healthcare and quarantined in a prison cell. How utterly irresponsible can you be?

I think no matter what we say about anyone who went there or to China or Italy during this won't stop the spread now, of course all those idiots were only caring about their trips not this virus that was spreading worldwide killing people

I still can't understand why anyone would have wanted to travel anywhere outside Ireland from January February hearing the news about the covid pandemic

Rvsmmnps

fritzelly wrote: »

Stop link dumping conspiracy videos

When the world stops you gotta start asking some questions.

lawrencesummers

shesty wrote: »

Point to note.424 new cases is an 11% increase in cases.
Yesterday's figure of 404 was in fact a 12% increase.
I believe Leo Varadkar mentioned earlier in the week their aim is to keep that % figure as low as possible, they want it down near 5%.
Be wary of how you read numbers.
There is a sticky at the top of the forum.page showing the reported numbers each days, the numbers as a percentage increase and numbers of deaths among other things.Useful information.

I don’t see it that way.

I think those numbers are utterly pointless and you can’t read a thing into them. Calculating the increase on a daily percentage on the previous days numbers is an irrelevant statistic.

Why you might ask?

Because people who have been tested up to 2 weeks ago and haven’t got their results back. So the number of new cases today is not the number of newly infected people today.its actually the number of positive Results from the limited amount of tests that were processed today.

You could easily have a days results today that relates to a batch of people from a cluster of infections that was tested over a week ago, or a huge number of negative tests completed. Etc etc.

Considering we don’t have information being given out publicly as to the amount of people seeking tests on a daily basis, or the positives/negative for each of the last 2 weeks we can’t say if anything is improving or worsening for sure. We do t know how many tests are being taken or how many tests are being processed on a daily basis.

As long as the testing is limited in the ways that it is, and the bottlenecks that exists then we simply can’t have accurate numbers. The only thing we can go by is deaths (assuming they are being recorded accurately) and ICU admissions unfortunately.

humberklog

Disappointed to see us pulling away from Denmark numbers wise. Denmark started with higher numbers than us, especially fatalities (of which they took a big hit early on). Then for a while we were tracking along in cases much the same (also Malaysia too) but in the last few days our cases have constantly been higher. At the moment: Cases Irl- 4273 and Dk 3757 and Deaths at Irl. 120 and Dk 139.

Denmark have a slightly higher population and higher population density.

nacho libre

shesty wrote: »

Point to note.424 new cases is an 11% increase in cases.
Yesterday's figure of 404 was in fact a 12% increase.
I believe Leo Varadkar mentioned earlier in the week their aim is to keep that % figure as low as possible, they want it down near 5%.
on.

When do you think that 5 per cent figure might be attained? Would the government consider lifting the stay at home order at that stage?

is_that_so

Naggdefy wrote: »

We'll have lower cases over the weekend due to testing rate I'd imagine. When we record 200 cases tomorrow and Sunday we don't want to be pulled into a false sense of security.

Everyone is doing their best. The nursing homes being a problem of course.

We may have more as Henry said the tests sent to Germany will be starting to come back from tomorrow(night?).

kilkenny31

fritzelly wrote: »

Even at a generous 5% daily increase that is still 8000+ in the space of 2 weeks from now. You can guesstimate the deaths and ICU from that...not good

I always get confused by this. Has the governements approached to this not always been to "flatten the curve", so reduce how quickly people become infected so the hospitals can cope. We are doing a very good job at that. A lot of people on here haven't excepted that this virus is here. We can't stop it only slow it.

Naggdefy

easypazz wrote: »

5% should become 4% after a few days, then 3%, 2%, 1%

It isn't following that path in Italy. From a couple of days around 4,200 new cases we're back to 4,500/4,600. That's a bit of a worry for all countries.

owlbethere

Sono Topolino wrote: »

I wish those assholes who went to Cheltenham and got infected despite our collective pleading with them to cop the feck on could be denied healthcare and quarantined in a prison cell. How utterly irresponsible can you be?

I was told of an owner of a pub in another village, he went to Cheltenham. It was completely irresponsible. Surely he had some sort of duty of care towards his staff and his customers. Thankfully the government stepped up and implemented a closure of pubs but still, we were told at the time to stop gathering in crowds. Even if our government did not warn us about gathering in crowds, it's still common sense to try and reduce your risk of catching this illness.


It was incredibly selfish behaviour to go off and have fun at the races with a new deadly, highly infectious disease doing the rounds.

mcmoustache

Ray Donovan wrote: »

According to worldometers of all countries with over 1,000 cases we are 12th in the WORLD for cases per million people at 865. Is that not a very frightening statistic or am I totally missing something?

The number of cases isn't really a useful number unless you're testing a large and diverse enough sampling of the population. For example if you could only do 1000 tests on a given day, you would get different results if you tested the gang who went to Copper's on its last open night than had you tested a bunch of locked-in, solitary types.



It's not a realistic example given that the tests are mainly being done on people showing symptoms but I just wanted to demonstrate sampling bias.


The better figure is the number of deaths as long as how we record the deaths stays consistent - for example, recording pneumonia complications from covid-19 as pneumonia instead of covid-19 would show a flattening that isn't there.

Stheno

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I still can't understand why anyone would have wanted to travel anywhere outside Ireland from January February hearing the news about the covid pandemic

I'd colleagues who went skiing more than once in late January and Feb

They laughed at me when I asked were they not concerned

weldoninhio

Stheno wrote: »

Let's see the stats Tuesday and what they say

Tuesdays numbers will prob be from Paddys Day. They are so out of their depth it would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious. And yet you still have Varadker and Harris gurning like idiots at the opening of a step down centre like they’ve achieved something.

normanoffside

harr wrote: »

So Monday or Tuesday we are looking at big numbers when the results return from Germany .. thousands maybe

Yes but as long as they have been self isolating and social distancing it really doesn't matter. Most of those will have recovered by now and won't be spreading

As has been said numerous time, Hospital/ICU number and Deaths are the only things that really matter.

If we can keep ICU numbers down specifically we are doing OK.

c.p.w.g.w

niallo27 wrote: »

What smartphone are you using from Korea if you mind me asking?

Well Apple & Hauwai phones use Analog wafers which are produced in Limerick. Many elements of today's smartphones are produced in more expensive countries.

Professor Moriarty

humberklog wrote: »

Disappointed to see us pulling away from Denmark numbers wise. Denmark started with higher numbers than us, especially fatalities (of which they took a big hit early on). Then for a while we were tracking along in cases much the same (also Malaysia too) but in the last few days our cases have constantly been higher. At the moment: Cases Irl- 4273 and Dk 3757 and Deaths at Irl. 120 and Dk 139.

Denmark have a slightly higher population and higher population density.

Their deaths per million is still higher. 26 versus 24.

JP Liz V1

How did South Korea flatten the curve? What's their current numbers for cases and deaths?

randy hickey

hmmm wrote: »

The HSE can't win. Everyone with a sniffle rang them to get a test, and flooded the system with hypochondriacs. The HSE changed the testing criteria and got criticised for not testing everyone. Now you're criticising for testing too many.

Captain hindsights everywhere. I like our current testing approach, and it's the only way we will got out this - probably with the addition of serological testing to see the extent of spread.

Quoting this in case people missed it on this fast-moving thread.

coastwatch

Strazdas wrote: »

But the 'surge' and 'peak' which is being discussed are the death totals. That is why Dr Holohan was asked when he thought the surge would happen.

I understood the surge to mean hospital admissions, so this is the surge and will probably continue at current rates for another 2-3 weeks.
From today's briefing
21% of cases so far have required hospital admission
4 % of cases so far have required ICU treatment.

Naggdefy

I think supermarkets are a big area of virus transmission. Some public don't wear gloves. Lots of handling of notes. Staff have to deal with a lot of people. They then spread it in homes. I know 2 people in a local centra who had to isolate with a cough.

How effective are hand sanitisers?

I had to go to town today,and used them going in & out of shops (deffo properly,into all corners etc)


Is.this enough??.....we were out from food at home,so kinda was a necessity

JP Liz V1

Stheno wrote: »

I'd colleagues who went skiing more than once in late January and Feb

They laughed at me when I asked were they not concerned

Some people have more money than sense ( is that a saying, I think me gran would say it )

Boggles

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What happened to the talk of the app and 15,000 tests per day, is that just all talk never happening

Aspirational nonsense.

They were "copying" the Korean model, they moved the goal posts since much since then they are in the car park beside the testing center that isn't testing.

The model we have is firmly the Irish one.

Fortunately the vast majority are staying at home and that is what probably will save us in the near future, medium term it's not sustainable.

BattleCorp

normanoffside wrote: »

Yes but as long as they have been self isolating and social distancing it really doesn't matter. Most of those will have recovered by now and won't be spreading

Yeah, people don't exactly do as they should do. One person I know who came back from Spain a little over a week ago was supposed to restrict their movements for 2 weeks yet were out and about the town the very next day.

A lot of people haven't a clue and think the rules don't apply to them.

wakka12

Deaths in Algeria, Phillippines, Ecuador,Denmark, Romania..and Ireland obviously, all passed 100 in the last 48 hours

mcmoustache

Deleted User wrote: »

How effective are hand sanitisers?

I had to go to town today,and used them going in & out of shops (deffo properly,into all corners etc)


Is.this enough??.....we were out from food at home,so kinda was a necessity

Soap. Use soap and wash your hands thoroughly. There are videos on youtube explaining how to do it.


Hand sanitisers help too but soap is where it's at.

igCorcaigh

Naggdefy wrote: »

It isn't following that path in Italy. From a couple of days around 4,200 new cases we're back to 4,500/4,600. That's a bit of a worry for all countries.

There might be two phases in Italy; the epidemic in the North, followed by another (hopefully less severe) one in the South?

rebeve

Shn99 wrote: »

Whats the big secret with the number of tests?

Because we are way behind on the testing .

igCorcaigh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How effective are hand sanitisers?

I had to go to town today,and used them going in & out of shops (deffo properly,into all corners etc)


Is.this enough??.....we were out from food at home,so kinda was a necessity

They do have a use, not as good as a proper hand washing, but definitely do use them.

Avoid using the front of your hands, especially the dominant one. Eg I use my knuckle for traffic lights, elbow for pushing doors etc.

Just remember to not touch your face.

vladmydad

We need to start wearing face masks
https://mobile.twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1246027215780941825

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/ingridmileyRTE/status/1246130231510999046?s=19

Beasty

Naggdefy wrote: »

Do you trust their figures?

No

Do you have a reliable source to support your allegation?

humberklog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Their deaths per million is still higher. 26 versus 24.

Yeah for sure but unfortunately we're slowly making ground on them there too.

JP Liz V1

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ingridmileyRTE/status/1246130231510999046?s=19

I thought Debenhams would do well online, shame if they close their stores

Stheno

weldoninhio wrote: »

Tuesdays numbers will prob be from Paddys Day. They are so out of their depth it would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious. And yet you still have Varadker and Harris gurning like idiots at the opening of a step down centre like they’ve achieved something.

Results from Germany are expected to start coming back tomorrow

As I said let's wait for the weekly figure next Tuesday

Griselda

be interesting to see what nation got it right.

Multipass

DubInMeath wrote: »

What would you normally buy outside of a supermarket?

Fuel, hardware, pet food for a start. I would usually spread my food purchases out to multiple small shops too.

boardise

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Why is George lee covering this story ? He's the most depressing person RTÉ have. He doesn't help the mood. I know fergal bowers needs a break but surely there was someone else who could be covering this ?

All George is short is a skeleton suit and a scythe. ..or possibly a T-shirt with little coffins on the front.

gabeeg

easypazz wrote: »

5% should become 4% after a few days, then 3%, 2%, 1%

That's some nice counting backwards in fairness to you.

Someone with such an obvious mastery of numbers should be paid a lot more heed.

Multipass

Naggdefy wrote: »

That sums it up where you're coming from. Most people wouldn't even notice or care less. But you begrudge them! Just shows what's at the heart of your arguments.

It’s going abroad to huge multinationals - damn right I begrudge them

Beasty

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

How did South Korea flatten the curve? What's their current numbers for cases and deaths?

Testing, testing, testing, and strict quarantining rules

They had learned lessons from the likes of SARS