CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

rusty the athlete

hibble wrote: »

Don't tell me that on top of the virus there is a comet on the way as well...

..beware .. "many a true word hath been spoke in jest."

kilkenny31

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

Looking at that graph, if we continue on that path, come the 3rd week in April the **** will begin to hit the fan with ICU beds all taken up.

Then the panic, reality, deaths and hysteria will set in.

People will die. In such a small country it's inevitable we will all be affected. Some people haven't grasped that yet.
There will be no partial relaxation for a good while longer

How do you figure that. We've hovered around the 100-120 people in ICU without any significant growth for days now. I'd imagine it will get busier but the figures to date to not show a significant growth in ICU or death.

Coyote

Number updated to match today's report
updated the died rate to 2% to closes match numbers reported but it's still less then reported numbers
the number for the last two days might high due to tests being send offshore and the backlog being reported
I know that some tests done on Friday 27th got results yesterday


No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late



interesting visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

wadacrack

threeball wrote: »

Another 17 deaths unfortunately but all things considered we're doing remarkably well, im sure two weeks ago, seeing the numbers that have unfolded across Europe, if anyone told you we'd be at the numbers we're at you'd have taken it with both hands.

We're a day closer to seeing our isolation measures taking effect and we haven't seen a totally disastrous day yet. Some things could have been better but all things considered theres very few countries we'd swap places with.

Many many countries similar to Ireland's population are doing far better than us in terms of deaths

Looptheloop30

marilynrr wrote: »

Of course there's a chance.

Nothing worse than the people who reckon they're experts on lockdowns and pandemics and the lifting of restrictions even though we've never been through this before!!

It's the same rationale behind closing the schools for 2 weeks initially. If it's working logically it has to be left in place to maximize its impact

threeball

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

Looking at that graph, if we continue on that path, come the 3rd week in April the **** will begin to hit the fan with ICU beds all taken up.

Then the panic, reality, deaths and hysteria will set in.

People will die. In such a small country it's inevitable we will all be affected. Some people haven't grasped that yet.
There will be no partial relaxation for a good while longer

Why do you think we'll continue to climb for another two weeks. That would be 4 weeks after the initial isolation measures. At that stage we should be down to mostly interfamily transmissions.

marilynrr

Gael23 wrote: »

Do we know in average how long a Covid 19 patient spends in ICU?

I think it's around 15 days if they need a ventilator.

Funsterdelux

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

Looking at that graph, if we continue on that path, come the 3rd week in April the **** will begin to hit the fan with ICU beds all taken up.

Then the panic, reality, deaths and hysteria will set in.

People will die. In such a small country it's inevitable we will all be affected. Some people haven't grasped that yet.
There will be no partial relaxation for a good while longer

Exactly, just look at Italy, their numbers arent rising but theyre not falling either so its gonna be a long time. Even Dr Cillian has said we'll have to live with restructions until theres a vaccine.

growleaves

Insanity. Many states, such as Kansas, Texas, Arkansas still have their pubs and restaurant open.

Kansas with a population density 1/1,265th that of NYC.

If the bodies fail to pile up in Texan cities like Dallas and Austin then will people admit that (scientifically unproven) lockdown is a load of bollocks?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

Looking at that graph, if we continue on that path, come the 3rd week in April the **** will begin to hit the fan with ICU beds all taken up.

Then the panic, reality, deaths and hysteria will set in.

People will die. In such a small country it's inevitable we will all be affected. Some people haven't grasped that yet.
There will be no partial relaxation for a good while longer

If we keep going this way, we may have hit the peak yesterday and cases should continue to come down by the end of the month largely.

Looptheloop30

threeball wrote: »

Why do you think we'll continue to climb for another two weeks. That would be 4 weeks after the initial isolation measures. At that stage we should be down to mostly interfamily transmissions.

Have you analyzed any data or trends from any other country that has been impacted by this scourge?

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

UrbanFret wrote: »

I'm beginning to wonder is there even such a thing as "flattening the curve" I'm also convinced there are 2 strains of this virus knocking about. A neighbour was moved from a local hospital to beaumount a few weeks back to be prepared for a triple bypass in the mater. She's also diabetic and has a large hernia. She was put in a ward with other patients who subsequently were tested positive for covid-19. Last Thursday she herself tested positive. 9 days later she is still fine with only mild symptons. Now riddle me that.

I wonder this too. People like George Alagiah who has stage 4 cancer and is in active treatment getting only mild symptoms and recovering from it and others with relatively mild underlying conditions succumbing.

threeball

wadacrack wrote: »

Many many countries similar to Ireland's population are doing far better than us in terms of deaths

In Europe? Very few. Mostly old iron curtain countries who think little of introducing lockdowns and travel restrictions. Show me where are all these comparable liberal democracies are that are doing so well.

Professor Moriarty

growleaves wrote: »

Kansas with a population density 1/1,265th that of NYC.

If the bodies fail to pile up in Texan cities like Dallas and Austin then will people admit that (scientifically unproven) lockdown is a load of bollocks?

In urban areas, if there are no containment measures, Covid-19 will have a fabulous time.

wadacrack

fr336 wrote: »

My mother, 70 years old with various underlying conditions - asthma, irregular heart rhythm, under active thyroid and prone to really bad chest infections in the past - has had a bout of something for almost 2 weeks now...ironically started day after Boris announced lockdown here. Started off with vomiting and stomach pain, then an irregular chesty cough and has been up and down since but mainly improving. Today she says she feels back to normal again apart from the cough which has been abating. At the start I hoped to god it wasn't corona but now she seems over it I'm thinking that's some bloody coincidence isn't it? Especially as we are in south east of England. I thought if mum got this then at the very least she would be in hospital but is it possible that even many over 70s with health conditions may just be able to get over this at home? One thing I'd say is all her conditions are very well controlled whereas some people don't have this whether through bad luck or choice. I'm probably clutching at straws but the timing is suspect right?

Over 50% at that age don't requite hospitalization. It probably is CV 19. This is completely widespread much more than official numbers indicate

sid waddell

Speculating about a relaxation of restrictions before April is both crazy and deluded.

It's also only setting people up for disappointment, and that's what we don't want.

I can't understand why people are paying attention to the likes of the Karol Sikora chap in England who seems to get chirpier every day as the body count keeps going up.

It's a bizarre sort of political narrative and not connected to reality.

marilynrr

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

It's the same rationale behind closing the schools for 2 weeks initially. If it's working logically it has to be left in place to maximize its impact

I disagree, because logically the longer it goes on for the greater the impact and knock on affect on other things. I'm not talking about the economy here, but other health issues.

There will be suicides, a deterioration in mental heath, are people allowed out for appointments with therapists? I wonder are they considered essential, some people would have been attending before all of this...and if it is considered essential and allowed I would imagine the poor people feel awful when they're grilled by the guards on where they're going.

There was a woman on the radio who had her life prolonging cancer treatment stopped and offered pain relief instead, stuff like that can't continue.

There's people in abusive homes, spouses and children. God only knows what they are going through and if we will see murder suicides.


There has to be some kind of normality brought back if numbers don't escalate.

jackboy

marilynrr wrote: »

I disagree, because logically the longer it goes on for the greater the impact and knock on affect on other things. I'm not talking about the economy here, but other health issues.

There will be suicides, a deterioration in mental heath, are people allowed out for appointments with therapists? I wonder are they considered essential, some people would have been attending before all of this...and if it is considered essential and allowed I would imagine the poor people feel awful when they're grilled by the guards on where they're going.

There was a woman on the radio who had her life prolonging cancer treatment stopped and offered pain relief instead, stuff like that can't continue.

There's people in abusive homes, spouses and children. God only knows what they are going through and if we will see murder suicides.


There has to be some kind of normality brought back if numbers don't escalate.

It’s all about profile. Covid deaths are higher profile than the issues you have mentioned. That is why that issue is being prioritised.

marilynrr

sid waddell wrote: »

Speculating about a relaxation of restrictions before April is both crazy and deluded.

It's also only setting people up for disappointment, and that's what we don't want.

Completely disagree. Some people need to remain positive, the thought of lockdown lasting months and months could massively impact their already fragile mental health, and we definitely don't want that either!!

No one here knows anything about how long it's going to last, no one has a crystal ball, so it's not crazy and deluded to speculate on restrictions being relaxed.

threeball

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

Have you analyzed any data or trends from any other country that has been impacted by this scourge?

Yes, ive kept tabs on them all and the ones still suffering badly were slow to react and had high community transfer before any messures were taken. They also saw exponential growth. Doubling of death's every 2 to 3 days. We have seen none of that. We have had very consistent rates for over a week now. Too many doom merchants around this place.

sid waddell

Avalyn Flabby Beefsteak wrote: »

If we keep going this way, we may have hit the peak yesterday and cases should continue to come down by the end of the month largely.

Graphs don't run in straight lines. You cannot determine a peak on one day's data on limited testing, which lets face it, ours is. You need at least a week's data to ascertain a levelling off pattern. And even when the curve starts flattening, the situation is still extremely serious.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

growleaves wrote: »

Kansas with a population density 1/1,265th that of NYC.

If the bodies fail to pile up in Texan cities like Dallas and Austin then will people admit that (scientifically unproven) lockdown is a load of bollocks?

What is the lived density though (a more useful metric than simply dividing population by square kilometres)? Kansas has a number of urban areas where the population density would probably be as high as NYC. It's also bordered by Kansas City which is in Missouri but abuts Kansas state. The metro population for Kansas City is over 2,000,000.

ChikiChiki

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

That employer should be charged for workplace death.

Charged for negligence certainly as they have failed in their duty of care.

Honestly after hearing of a girl whose manager asked her to come into work straight after coming home from the states, these numpty brainless jobsworth managers are so incredibly short sighted and dangerous. They are one of the biggest threats to us combating the virus.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

sid waddell wrote: »

Graphs don't run in straight lines. You cannot determine a peak on one day's data on limited testing, which lets face it, ours is. You need at least a week's data to ascertain a levelling off pattern. And even when the curve starts flattening, the situation is still extremely serious.

Yes but if new cases continue to drop throughout next week, then eventually they will likely give it 2 more weeks before loosening restrictions slightly.

Jim_Hodge

Avalyn Flabby Beefsteak wrote: »

If we keep going this way, we may have hit the peak yesterday and cases should continue to come down by the end of the month largely.

One day's figures can't constitute a trend, by any stretch of the imagination. The peak is at least 10 days away. And after new cases reduce (not disappear by any means) the death rate will climb for weeks afterwards.

RandomViewer

marilynrr wrote: »

I disagree, because logically the longer it goes on for the greater the impact and knock on affect on other things. I'm not talking about the economy here, but other health issues.

There will be suicides, a deterioration in mental heath, are people allowed out for appointments with therapists? I wonder are they considered essential, some people would have been attending before all of this...and if it is considered essential and allowed I would imagine the poor people feel awful when they're grilled by the guards on where they're going.

There was a woman on the radio who had her life prolonging cancer treatment stopped and offered pain relief instead, stuff like that can't continue.

There's people in abusive homes, spouses and children. God only knows what they are going through and if we will see murder suicides.


There has to be some kind of normality brought back if numbers don't escalate.

Suicide levels have dropped, people are less stressed, therapists will have enough to do grief counselling, anyone who had treatment moved will still be treated within a safe time, feel free to wander out and restart whatever irrelevant profession that you think is being currently stymied .

Looptheloop30

marilynrr wrote: »

There has to be some kind of normality brought back if numbers don't escalate.

If the numbers don't escalate is the key thing.

But they are escalating and the will escalate further.

By Wednesday there were 101 covid19 related deaths on the island of Ireland.

In the past three days there have been 92 more deaths on the island.

I don't have the time explain the phenomenon of exponential growth however a dose of realism is needed in a lot of quarters.

At least that way if fewer deaths transpire than what you are expecting then that is a massive bonus.

End of the day we all are and will be further affected. There are people behind the numbers.

marilynrr

jackboy wrote: »

It’s all about profile. Covid deaths are higher profile than the issues you have mentioned. That is why that issue is being prioritised.

Higher profile right now, but that's not going to be the case forever. We can't keep people locked up with their abusers like collateral damage...or stop life prolonging cancer treatment and risk people dying from that...and god only knows the other things that are going on right now also!

Initially maybe it can be justified for an initial lockdown but this cannot go on indefinitely.

all about the mane

Suicide levels have dropped since when?

Jim_Hodge

Avalyn Flabby Beefsteak wrote: »

If we keep going this way, we may have hit the peak yesterday and cases should continue to come down by the end of the month largely.

One day's figures cannot constitute a trend by any stretch of the imagination. The peak is seven to ten days away at best and even then new cases will continue for some time. Even after the peak the death rate will continue to rise for some weeks more.

growleaves

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

What is the lived density though (a more useful metric than simply dividing population by square kilometres)? Kansas has a number of urban areas where the population density would probably be as high as NYC. It's also bordered by Kansas City which is in Missouri but abuts Kansas state. The metro population for Kansas City is over 2,000,000.

Ok but I don't know if Kansas City is locked down or what

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

growleaves wrote: »

Kansas with a population density 1/1,265th that of NYC.

If the bodies fail to pile up in Texan cities like Dallas and Austin then will people admit that (scientifically unproven) lockdown is a load of bollocks?

Also, of course it's scientifically unproven. This is a novel virus. Quality research on it will take a while to produce. Shall we let people die in the meantime, whilst we are waiting for that research materialise?

marilynrr

RandomViewer wrote: »

Suicide levels have dropped, people are less stressed, therapists will have enough to do grief counselling, anyone who had treatment moved will still be treated within a safe time, feel free to wander out and restart whatever irrelevant profession that you think is being currently stymied .

That woman on the radio was told her treatment was being stopped, she was being offered pain relief and palliative care only. She said the nurse was crying down the phone to her and said she also had to phone other patients.
That woman was absolutely terrified. She said she had already had to wear masks while out and about long before this because of her immune system. She was not informed about treatment restarting at all. This was a mother of 3 in her 30s. It was heartbreaking to listen to. That cannot be justified!!!

People are less stressed is quite the blanket statement. I know several people suffering severely at the moment due to this.

I'm not sure what your point on therapists was so maybe you could clarify that?

Pseudonym121

kilkenny31 wrote: »

How do you figure that. We've hovered around the 100-120 people in ICU without any significant growth for days now. I'd imagine it will get busier but the figures to date to not show a significant growth in ICU or death.

That simply isn't true. The number in ICU with COVID 19 has quadrupled in the past week. And that doesn't even account for the fact that nursing home cases are now being "treated" in the nursing home in order not to take up ICU beds when we reach critical capacity - this is entirely correct as their chances of survival if tubed are very low.

Jim_Hodge

marilynrr wrote: »

Higher profile right now, but that's not going to be the case forever. We can't ...or stop life prolonging cancer treatment and risk people dying from that...and god only knows the other things that are going on right now also!

Initially maybe it can be justified for an initial lockdown but this cannot go on indefinitely.

No life prolonging cancer treatment is being delayed because of Covid-19. (a family member is a cancer nurse and another a doctor)
This type of rhetoric serves no good purpose.

marilynrr

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

If the numbers don't escalate is the key thing.

But they are escalating and the will escalate further.

By Wednesday there were 101 covid19 related deaths on the island of Ireland.

In the past three days there have been 92 more deaths on the island.

I don't have the time explain the phenomenon of exponential growth however a dose of realism is needed in a lot of quarters.

At least that way if fewer deaths transpire than what you are expecting then that is a massive bonus.

End of the day we all are and will be further affected. There are people behind the numbers.

You don't need to "explain the phenomenon of exponential growth" to me thanks.

There are also people behind the doors in the houses in lockdown.

wadacrack

threeball wrote: »

In Europe? Very few. Mostly old iron curtain countries who think little of introducing lockdowns and travel restrictions. Show me where are all these comparable liberal democracies are that are doing so well.

Russia, Norway, Israel. Czech Republic, Poland, Greece, Serbia, Slovenia, Ukraine, Bosnia, Bulgaria and Croatia all have lower deaths than Ireland

marilynrr

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

No life prolonging cancer treatment is being delayed because of Covid-19.
This type of rhetoric serves no good purpose.

The radio link was shared on here. I can't remember the station but maybe someone here has the link.
I thought the person who posted it was mistaken as well until I listened to it!!

Maestro85

Right now the government and institutes dealing with this are operating in the mindset of "encouraging the public to work together to 'flatten the curve' and delay and reduce the COVID-19 epidemic peak."

Key words here are delay the peak. This will go on for another month at least and then if we are lucky, really lucky, there will be a wind-down phase where things gradually get back to some sense of normalcy but what was normal to us before this crisis will be a long time coming back.

My sector, tourism, is in ruins, jobs will be lost in there droves in the coming months, the economic impact will be harder than anything we have experienced in our lifetime and people think these restrictions will ease in 2 weeks. If people get a sense of hope in saying it will ease in 2 weeks then fine. I can only determine my actions and I am preparing for this t go on for months. We can only deal with what is in front of us, one thing at a time.

Hobgoblin11

17 deaths and 331 new cases confirmed

igCorcaigh

Sky news are having a special programme at 9.

Ok, I have not much love for sky news, but Im going to watch it.

ArmaniJeanss

That 'live cam' of Mulberry Street in New York was old footage. There's no parade on there today, and that parade happens in Autumn anyway.

Here's the live cam of the street, it's as empty as you'd expect.
https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/littleitaly/?cam=littleitaly

john why

Worldometer reporting 26,030 death's for France yesterday . That must be a mistake yeah?

john why

Worldometer reporting 26,030 death's for France yesterday . That must be a mistake yeah?

ArmaniJeanss

That 'live cam' of Mulberry Street in New York was old footage. There's no parade on there today, and that parade happens in Autumn anyway.

Here's the live cam of the street, it's as empty as you'd expect.
https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/littleitaly/?cam=littleitaly

Wombatman

FishOnABike wrote: »

I'm trying to point out that pro rata or per million comparisons are not very meaningful.

As the saying puts it "There are lies, damned lies and statistics". Using per million comparisons in this way is misleading.

With different countries having different protocols, criteria for diagnosis, hospitalisation, ICU admission, etc... and different methods for compiling their reported figures anything other than large discrepancies should be treated with caution as the margin for error is significant.

I would say that country A which restricts the spread from a single person to four others us doing a far better job than country B which doesn't manage to stop the spread until 240 others gave been infected.

That country B is 60 times more populous is not relevant to comparing how well country B is controlling the spread, however it is relevant to the relative impact that level of spread has on the country's wider population.

The only was we can compare one countries experience to an others, is by comparing statistics per capita.

The key indicator, the number every country is striving to keep down, is the number of deaths.

The US is a federation of states, like the EU. Each sate is divided into counties, each county into smaller administrative districts.

Germany is a country in the EU. It is itself a federation of states. Each of these state is divided again into administrative districts.

Ireland is a country. It is made up of counties. Counties are made up of other groupings like town-lands or parishes.

All of these constructs are just arbitrary groupings of people and their population SIZE has no bearing on the spread of the virus. The bit in bold is meaningless junk.

We like to compare how one group is doing relative to another. We can only do this by comparing per capita statistics we have to hand.

The compilation methods of the stats vary, but its the best we can do if we want to compare.

So how do you think Spain is faring out compared to South Korea?

Keep in mind, that when this is over, the countries or states or regions who will be credited with the best strategies, will be the ones with lowest deaths per capita.

What do you think of the second graph?

https://twitter.com/charliemansell/status/1239249213332094985

bodhrandude

Bushmaster64 wrote: »

Over a thousand dead in France today.

How did that happen?

devnull

Meanwhile. in the UK, some folk believe the have found the cause of the spreading of the virus - 5G phone masts
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/04/uk-phone-masts-attacked-amid-5g-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory

Footage here:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11320198/coronavirus-5g-conspiracy-theory-masts/

Therefore there's reports of several being burnt down following celebrities promoting the conspiracy theory.

lawrencesummers

I’ve started to limit this Covid stuff to an hour a day. Any more just becomes to much.

Log on have a look at what’s happening and log out. Control what you can and ignore the rest.

There is nothing more I can do, so going down a rabbit hole of Covid related stories and the terrible things it is doing won’t do me any good. The media is covering this wall to wall and while it’s all relevant in many ways it’s completely irrelevant in others.

I dont work at the front line and have huge sympathy for those that do. But wallowing in Social media posts about it won’t change anything.


If you suffer from anxiety or are stressed about this then limit the time you expose yourself to the media of it. I phone friends and family and shoot the breeze with them. I chat to my neighbor and read a book. Do a puzzle and chill out.

Cook a healthy dinner and clean some part of the house that’s been left on the long finger.

See ye tomo.

fritzelly

devnull wrote: »

Meanwhile. in the UK, some folk believe the have found the cause of the spreading of the virus - 5G phone masts
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11320198/coronavirus-5g-conspiracy-theory-masts/

Therefore there's reports of several being burnt down following celebrities promoting the conspiracy theory.

Can't cure stupid