CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

timmy_mallet

New Home wrote: »

Right. I just heard something on the news and I'm wondering did I hear it right. Some politician (could've been Coveney, I didn't actually hear who) said we should prepare for more restrictions (and that's understandable). He also said that there should be a verifiable system put in place to quarantine people travelling from Italy and the US. WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER COUNTRIES BADLY AFFECTED?? Does Coronavirus have a passport? Is it less deadly depending on its "nationality"? See, provided that I didn't mis-hear, stuff like THIS is what's wrong with how we're going about things. Like the 100 indoors/500 outdoors from the first round of restrictions... 'cause viruses can count! :mad:

More restrictions = civil unrest.

There's a reason they only said til 12th April. Because on the 9th, they'll extend it a further two weeks. Already preparing us for it.

Any announcement of lockdown for 3 months, which i assume is the plan, would be rightly met with outrage.

RebelButtMunch

timmy_mallet wrote: »

More restrictions = civil unrest.

There's a reason they only said til 12th April. Because on the 9th, they'll extend it a further two weeks. Already preparing us for it.

Any announcement of lockdown for 3 months, which i assume is the plan, would be rightly met with outrage.

At some stage when the peak drops, the restrictions will ease. The restrictions will go up and down to follow any trend of icu maxing out.
Unfortunately vulnerable people wont get a as much benefit as others of easing of restrictions until a vaccine comes along

caveat emptor

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1244651716571791361?s=20

cameramonkey

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

They update weekly as to how many tests they have done.

They were testing 2k a day on 23 March.

There's 5,000 tests done dailly today.

I linked both figures for you yesterday on two separate occasions (not realising that I was responding to the same person).

I linked that for you three times

I am taking about tests that are processed, maybe you do not understand the difference. You can get a mouth and nasal swab but if the lab does not process it and you dont get a result then it is not a completed test.


I have linked to an official HSE statement from the most recent amount of tests that have been processed. Can you do the same so that we are on the same page in terms of verifiable HSE statements.



I am not being deliberately negative, I am trying to find actual verifiable numbers. I certainly think that getting verifiable numbers re completed tests would be make people more secure about the HSE reaction to the outbreak.


Posters continue to say things like they are testing 5000 or they said they are testing 5000 but the HSE press release seem not to ever say how many tests have been completed.

ShayNanigan

Shelga wrote: »

Might be a silly question, but would being a smoker count as an underlying condition?

Does anyone know have there been any data trend analysis done on the ratio of deaths/serious conditions to smokers?

I'll see what I can find but as far as I've understood smoking and obesity would definitely influence the outcome. We'll see a lot of deaths in the U.S. labeled with "no underlying condition" even when the patient is clearly severely obese though.

bekker

Leo mentioned that chap in charge of modelling COVID-19 impact, is appearing at briefing tonight.

No idea what time that was just picked it up on RTE News Now could be live could be loop.

freddie1970

My girlfriend is a nurse and she told me that today some of her colleagues are getting sick one is in icu ..
Really worried here trying to decide if we should have some form of social distancing in the house or just except i will get it ..we are both in late 40s so we are nearly in risk category

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1244368048821321735

What are the chances that we see this donkey run for election at some point...

is_that_so

bekker wrote: »

Leo mentioned that chap in charge of modelling COVID-19 impact, is appearing at briefing tonight.

No idea what time that was just picked it up on RTE News Now could be live could be loop.

It will be at 7.

Also lots of "new" beds and capacity.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said additional private capacity adds an extra 17% to total public capacity.

He said that includes 11,000 inpatient & 2,300 day beds, 1,000 single inpatient rooms, useful for isolation, 194 ventilators & 9 laboratories.

cameramonkey

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Not being sharp but why don't you just watch the press conferences instead of expecting up to date figures on some websites when there are more things for reduced staff to do? It's simple. Watch the press conference or read about them in the paper.

I actually watched the press conference yesterday when one of the posters said that they were testing 5000 per day, that was correct the HSE said that but they didn't say how many were being processed. The important figure is processed test not just the swabbing.

Naggdefy

13.4% increase in UK cases today. Intetresting to see if we continue to come in at a lower daily increase rate than them.

is_that_so

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1244368048821321735

What are the chances that we see this donkey run for election at some point...

Now, now he is an "expert" in many, many fields. I'm guessing too he has no plans to return Web Summit here!

wakka12

The countries with the lowest mortality rates in Europe have grown quite a lot, Austria is now over 1.1% and Germany is at 0.9%

Norway is now the lowest in Europe at 0.7%

is_that_so

No border closures.

timmy_mallet

wakka12 wrote: »

Imperial College Professor says there could be up to 1.3 million currently infected people in the UK, representing about 2% of the population. In central London as much as 3-5% of the population may currently be infected
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-early-signs-outbreak-slowing-in-uk-says-imperial-college-professor-11965624

Well, yes, if % of positive tests are indicative of prevalence in total population, that would be correct. You can do the math(s) for Ireland too.

loveisdivine

Has there been any talk yet of any kind of hazard pay for essential service workers?

tobefrank321

New Home wrote: »

Right. I just heard something on the news and I'm wondering did I hear it right. Some politician (could've been Coveney, I didn't actually hear who) said we should prepare for more restrictions (and that's understandable). He also said that there should be a verifiable system put in place to quarantine people travelling from Italy and the US. WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER COUNTRIES BADLY AFFECTED?? Does Coronavirus have a passport? Is it less deadly depending on its "nationality"? See, provided that I didn't mis-hear, stuff like THIS is what's wrong with how we're going about things. Like the 100 indoors/500 outdoors from the first round of restrictions... 'cause viruses can count! :mad:

I really don't understand why people like Coveney speak like they are in opposition and have no control over government direction. Its bizarre. Either do it or don't do it, but stop telling us you're going to do it.

The time for good PR is long past.

bb12

lot more talk today of incoming flights and people on various radio programmes today...sounds like they're preparing to stop them...all the measures they've introduced so far seemed to come up on these programmes a few days before...it's like the government are telling the media what to talk about in advance to get it into the social conscienceness

Mental Mickey

Just switched on the briefing now. What have I missed?

timmy_mallet

bb12 wrote: »

lot more talk today of incoming flights and people on various radio programmes today...sounds like they're preparing to stop them...all the measures they've introduced so far seemed to come up on these programmes a few days before...it's like the government are telling the media what to talk about in advance to get it into the social conscienceness

I'd argue you're more likely to get COVID-19 while hmming and hawwing over yer bottle of plonk in Dunnes than in an airplane or airport.

GolfNut33

Naggdefy wrote: »

13.4% increase in UK cases today. Intetresting to see if we continue to come in at a lower daily increase rate than them.

But it's a meaningless number so it cant possibly be accurate.

is_that_so

bb12 wrote: »

lot more talk today of incoming flights and people on various radio programmes today...sounds like they're preparing to stop them...all the measures they've introduced so far seemed to come up on these programmes a few days before...it's like the government are telling the media what to talk about in advance to get it into the social conscienceness

Leo said no and was quite emphatic, but there might be a need for more controls around the area.

tobefrank321

freddie1970 wrote: »

My girlfriend is a nurse and she told me that today some of her colleagues are getting sick one is in icu ..
Really worried here trying to decide if we should have some form of social distancing in the house or just except i will get it ..we are both in late 40s so we are nearly in risk category

If you both get sick at the same time you are no good to each other. Appreciate its not easy to isolate under the one roof but it may be possible to do some limited social distancing, good hygiene, etc. One of you may need to stay healthy to look after the other. That said if she gets it you are very likely to get it.

John.Icy

Of course there will be far more than 2 weeks of a lockdown. Do the maths.

99% of Ireland will unlikely be infected during this initial wave (can only go by official confirmed cases folks unfortunely, so this number may not be 99% but should be fairly high). That leaves us extremely vulnerable to future surges due to a lack of vaccine and no herd immunity. We could most likely be in an out of lockdown type scenarios for 8-12 months until we have a vaccine if things don't work out in our favour. The only thing that will prevent this is total eradication - firstly in Ireland and this would have to be coupled with significant travel bans to maintain suppression of the virus on the island until the point it is suppressed to a large extent worldwide. Eradication is certainly possible but most virologists aren't looking at that being done any time soon for those with cabin fever already.

Flattening the curve is good...but when you flatten it to the point that 99% of people don't get sick, then you are playing with fire for future flare ups of the virus until there's a vaccine. My guess is transient phases of tight social restrictions vs. slightly relaxed restrictions, riding various waves of increasing cases then decreasing cases over many months to come.

EDIT: Just to add that many scientists figure large asymptomatic positive populations will be out there that never get a test. If we get a decent enough % infected at least then maybe things won't be as bad. However we don't know if getting infected yet = full immunity.

timmy_mallet

is_that_so wrote: »

Leo said no and was quite emphatic, but there might be a need for more controls around the area.

Good. This whole episode is quite the demonstration of the fundamental misunderstanding of statistics, probability and risk in the majority of people.

cameramonkey

GolfNut33 wrote: »

But it's a meaningless number so it cant possibly be accurate.

Think their death rate was lower today also so that is good unlees there are more to be announced. It is early days yet.

Strazdas

bb12 wrote: »

lot more talk today of incoming flights and people on various radio programmes today...sounds like they're preparing to stop them...all the measures they've introduced so far seemed to come up on these programmes a few days before...it's like the government are telling the media what to talk about in advance to get it into the social conscienceness

No, the Taoiseach says they have no intention of stopping flights. We need incoming doctors and nurses for example from all around the world as well as equipment and we need to be able to export medical equipment and medicines in order to generate revenue.

Don't forget we've no land border with the EU, making the banning of flights a near impossibility.

New Home

timmy_mallet wrote: »

More restrictions = civil unrest.

There's a reason they only said til 12th April. Because on the 9th, they'll extend it a further two weeks. Already preparing us for it.

Any announcement of lockdown for 3 months, which i assume is the plan, would be rightly met with outrage.

I know that, that's not what I was objecting to, it's quite obvious that bad news in small doses are easier for people to swallow that in one big chunk. What I was objecting to was the limitation of the quarantine to people travelling only from the US and Italy.

Roger_007

loveisdivine wrote: »

Has there been any talk yet of any kind of hazard pay for essential service workers?

I’m sure that will come later, but how do you define an essential service worker?

Naggdefy

GolfNut33 wrote: »

But it's a meaningless number so it cant possibly be accurate.

It should have some reflection on the efficacy of lockdown as they are about 2 weeks behind us. Working with the percentage of population being tested in both jurisdictions.

caveat emptor

loveisdivine wrote: »

Has there been any talk yet of any kind of hazard pay for essential service workers?

I have. Hopefully government will do more for those most at risk.

2 weeks ago....

caveat emptor wrote: »

I was only thinking about this. I'm glad our government has taken action. WHO has been screaming at countries for weeks regarding preparedness. From the UK expert that was fielding the questions for Boris. (fair play to him for deferring to an expert by the way) it seemed as though they are expecting a curve with 6 weeks either side.(12 in total) They are saying people are going to die. They are tacitly stating the need to make that peak smaller/sharper. One way is to not flatten the curve but push the curve up. They believe that on balance carrying on as normal and practicing hand washing will prevent enough spread so that the disruption to the economy is less and the wave passes quicker.

I'm glad our government is not taking that approach. We should be looking after our most vulnerable. One explanation for the difference in approach is that we do not depend so much on our domestic economy. i.e a large portion of workforce can work from home. However those who can't work from home have been promoted essentially in society to keep the show running. Farmers / bakers / supermarket assistants / truck drivers should all be compensated for the risks they will undoubtedly have to take in the coming weeks. They should get danger money effectively (as soldiers do when deploying). The should be provided with PPE as a matter of urgency / necessity.

It goes with out saying that health care workers will be those most at risk. Please god they will be safe. After this is done they should be the ones who are most valued in society.

Frank Bullitt

is_that_so wrote: »

Now, now he is an "expert" in many, many fields. I'm guessing too he has no plans to return Web Summit here!

His "sources" tell him a lot.

Thingymebob

the government and HSE appear to have reserved CityWest Convention Centre until July for self isolation?

Bit cynical

Report on what life is like in Sweden

Dated 25/03/2020.

RugbyLad11

timmy_mallet wrote: »

More restrictions = civil unrest.

There's a reason they only said til 12th April. Because on the 9th, they'll extend it a further two weeks. Already preparing us for it.

Any announcement of lockdown for 3 months, which i assume is the plan, would be rightly met with outrage.

There is no way people will stick to the lockdown if it is still here in June/July...

People will be stir crazy and no way people will do in for months during the summer

davedanon

cameramonkey wrote: »

I have already stated the figures I know and have linked to them but here it is again.

The most recent official figure I can find is "To date, 17,992 tests have been carried out in laboratories across the country, as of midnight last night."


https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/e378fd-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-on-tuesday-/


So as of the 23 March just over 700 tests per day since the outbreak started in Ireland. Of course there must have been more since then but these are the only figures I can find.

If you can point me to more recent statements from the HSE please do.
As i said to a previous poster there is no need for vitriol.

I don't think you know what 'vitriol' means in this context. In any case, no-one has directed any at you.

Thelonious Monk

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

There is no way people will stick to the lockdown if it is still here in June/July...

People will be stir crazy and no way people will do in for months during the summer

If the summer is as bad as last year's it may keep us indoors anyway

Inquitus

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

If the summer is as bad as last year's it may keep us indoors anyway

Sod's law says it will be a corking summer though!

is_that_so

Thingymebob wrote: »

the government and HSE appear to have reserved CityWest Convention Centre until July for self isolation?

Think they have a lease for the rest of the year, whether required or not.

gifted

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

There is no way people will stick to the lockdown if it is still here in June/July...

People will be stir crazy and no way people will do in for months during the summer

There's people either side of me who can't stick to the lock down now never mind june...ffs.

is_that_so

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

There is no way people will stick to the lockdown if it is still here in June/July...

People will be stir crazy and no way people will do in for months during the summer

No, I think they will have fingers crossed that they can reverse some things in April, early May at the latest.

Rattlehead_ie

caveat emptor wrote: »

I have. Hopefully government will do more for those most at risk.

2 weeks ago....

Certainly the supermarkets have already started doing this themselves
Tesco announced it last week and Dunnes doing the same

Dunnes Pay Premium

Lavinia

Bit cynical wrote: »

Report on what life is like in Sweden

Dated 25/03/2020.

sweden didnt impose any measures yet as they want to see how it goes. even schools are open restaurants and everything else

tobefrank321

Strazdas wrote: »

No, the Taoiseach says they have no intention of stopping flights. We need incoming doctors and nurses for example from all around the world as well as equipment and we need to be able to export medical equipment and medicines in order to generate revenue.

Don't forget we've no land border with the EU, making the banning of flights a near impossibility.

You can bring in doctors and nurses in a controlled way without going through commercial flights.

All these doctors and nurses also will have to isolate if they come from places like London or New York first otherwise you just spread it in hospitals.

Madness.

Ger Roe

Roger_007 wrote: »

I’m sure that will come later, but how do you define an essential service worker?

For some, it's seems to be simply down to their employers self declaring their service/product as essential and then issuing a letter saying so to their employees.

I know of people now basically being forced to work in factories because they have been declared essential, regardless of their home situations - living with others who are higher risk and self isolating. They are going out every day and risking bringing the virus back to other people who have not left the house in two weeks. The companies concerned warn employees not to come to work if they develop symptoms, but they can go home every night until then and risk passing on an infection to their isolating co-inhabitants.

Why is there no consideration of a worker's home circumstances and why is the 'essential' list so broad? Was it deliberately so vague when first mooted that it gave employers a 24 hr period to lobby to be included on the list that was then published 24hrs after the announcement?

rossie1977

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

There is no way people will stick to the lockdown if it is still here in June/July...

People will be stir crazy and no way people will do in for months during the summer

There is no lockdown in Ireland

Cork Boy 53

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

There is no way people will stick to the lockdown if it is still here in June/July...

People will be stir crazy and no way people will do in for months during the summer

If the death toll skyrockets they will out of fear.

shocksy

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1244658689291796483?s=19

deise08

Rattlehead_ie wrote: »

Certainly the supermarkets have already started doing this themselves
Tesco announced it last week and Dunnes doing the same

Dunnes Pay Premium

Tesco might have said it, but no sign yet. I'm sure it will be back dated when it comes.

Whehey!

I'm a little confused..
Can the same house hold go for a short walk together but obvs keep their distance from anyone or is it only one person per household that can go for a walk once a day at a time?