CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Beasty

Marsden35 wrote: »

Now I know that gloating over such a morbid subject is unbecoming, but I did predict single digit casualties.





https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112991592&postcount=9216


So put your complex graphs and your epidemiology studies away and just follow my posts.

Do not post in this thread again

Amirani

Naggdefy wrote: »

I prefer accurate projections. 15,000 was wrong as not enough tests, no where in the world was exponentially increasing by 30%.

The 15000 was based on taking no containment measures. No country in the world took no containment measures.

Wolf359f

Naggdefy wrote: »

I prefer accurate projections. 15,000 was wrong as not enough tests, no where in the world was exponentially increasing by 30%.

Spain had 18,000 cases in the same timeframe as we would have had 15,000 by the end of the month in our worst case scenario.

ChikiChiki

Come on Ireland. We got this but absolutely no room for complacency. Keep up the good work all.

Amirani

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Seems extremely high.

Yeah, nursing home clusters are driving up median age.

spookwoman

In plain english does that mean they don't have enough kits and low on items for labs.........

stockshares

Today's stats.

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

RobertKK

People waiting for tests, tests cancelled due to new regs, all helps to keep the overall number down...

Kermit.de.frog

The figures are so small they are very volatile day by day.

300 cases could be 800 cases very easily the following day. Equally could be the other way.

The samples are still very small for serious trend work.

easypazz

Widdensushi wrote: »

any mention of when the recovered figure will be given, I think they said last week it would be given early this week

Prince Charles was diagnosed and 7 days later leaves isolation, presumably allclear, so unless you go to hospital I assume most people are declared recovered after 7 days.

Mwengwe

marilynrr wrote: »

Have you read the posts or threads on here about people who have elderly parents who don't want to stay in?
A lot of them hate this and would rather just take their chances, and think that it would be far worse to be locked up in their homes not able to see anyone when they might not have many months or years left in their lives anyway.

People act like it's for their own good, but do the elderly or vulnerable not get a say in it? Are we not going to take into consideration what some elderly people actually want?

If this goes on until June/July then unfortunately some elderly people will die from other age related issues and for their last few months the option for their family to see them, for them to hold their great grandchildren or lots of little things that are important to them will be taken away from them! They might have been saved from covid-19 but it's a very sad end to their days.

If elderly people hold that attitude then they need to cop on and stop being so selfish.
This is largely being done out of consideration for them.

Jinglejangle69

The nursing homes must account for a large number of the deaths.

Were doing good gotta keep it up.

Mervyn Skidmore

Deleted User wrote: »

I imagine there is a significant backlog in testing plus results. Those people who aren't Ryan Tubridy having to wait several days. Hopefully this lag will be corrected soon and we'll be closer to a representative figure.

Geez Tubbs is getting a lot of unfair comments on here. How do we know he was prioritised? He might have paid for a test privately, I'm sure he can afford it.

kowloon

Beasty wrote: »

Might be a cunning Trump plan.....


:pac:

Naggdefy

I'm amazed at the amount of posters who have no basic maths.

Then there's the laziness. Someone will ask 'if we increase an average of 10% per day how many cases will we have by 10th April?'

It's not rocket science. Get your phone calculator out and you'll have the answer while you typed and wanted someone else to do the work for you.

Del Griffith

Amirani wrote: »

Yeah, nursing home clusters are driving up median age.

It's in line with the age everywhere else

Duke of Url

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) has today been informed that 8 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 have died: 5 females and 3 males. The median age of the deceased was 86.

Of those who died:

6 lived in the east of Ireland
1 lived in the south of Ireland
1 lived in the west of Ireland.
7 of the 8 had underlying health conditions.

An additional 295 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed also - bringing the total to 2910.

ShayNanigan

My neighbours will be happy to hear that the measures have worked knowing they have changed absolutely nothing in their behaviour. I'm fully expecting them to throw a celebratory party in the weekend to celebrate "flattening the curve".

Neamhshuntasach

Widdensushi wrote: »

any mention of when the recovered figure will be given, I think they said last week it would be given early this week

Wife was told of 6 people in her job that are feeling fine now. No symptoms anymore. Was announced in some meeting. I had a similar one with 2 people. Mates in different chats have said they know people who had it and are grand now. I also know 2 dopes who went to Cheltenham and are ok now. Not sure how many have been tested to get a thumbs up on the full recovery.

I'm just one person that has heard of a few being fine now so I'm sure there are loads of others who know people with it and over it. But maybe people need to be officially tested and clear of it to be counted as a recovery.

Ficheall

Coyote wrote: »

if anyone has questions or thinks it could be changed with better data let me know

What's the point of it?

Amirani

RobertKK wrote: »

People waiting for tests, tests cancelled due to new regs, all helps to keep the overall number down...

Does nothing to help keep the number of deaths down, a metric on which we're still doing comparably well.

stephenjmcd

Question was asked about ICU numbers and they've indicated that these are the total numbers since the start. The reply was basically this is the way we report them.

Open to correction if I missed anything else there, connection cut out on me briefly

darced

They are very wishy-washy on the testing questions, just come out and tell us straight.

Ficheall

Amirani wrote: »

Does nothing to help keep the number of deaths down, a metric on which we're still doing comparably well.

Well, we're about 20th in the world per capita, so I guess it depends what you're comparing it to..

alan partridge aha

Said it nearly 2 weeks ago, the projected figure of 10 to 15k was not going to be correct. Italy had 35k 2weeks ago with a pop 12 times more than us. It was illogical to think that we would have half the amount of theirs by the end of month.

pjohnson

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Question was asked about ICU numbers and they've indicated that these are the total numbers since the start. The reply was basically this is the way we report them.

Open to correction if I missed anything else there, connection cut out on me briefly

Yesterday they said it was the current figure.....

spookwoman

darced wrote: »

They are very wishy-washy on the testing questions, just come out and tell us straight.

They dont have enough kit for testing and lab work by the looks of it.

RobertKK

Amirani wrote: »

Does nothing to help keep the number of deaths down, a metric on which we're still doing comparably well.

I know it doesn't but we don't see the true picture.
Germany are keeping the deaths down but are doing more testing for a truer picture.

PowerToWait

darced wrote: »

I want to be really happy about how this is going but I just feel something doesn't add up. How are we doing so well?

We are doing well but we have to remember that it's really early days and we need to do even better if we want to be able to handle this. Even staying at these numbers will see our ICU capacity swamped and the overall health system overburdened.

Sir Oxman

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/hungary-jail-for-coronavirus-misinformation-viktor-orban

Inevitable that the likes of Orban would go down this route.
Always good to have oversight of any draconian laws and the small print.

poppers

easypazz wrote: »

Prince Charles was diagnosed and 7 days later leaves isolation, presumably allclear, so unless you go to hospital I assume most people are declared recovered after 7 days.

Looks that way, would be nice to hear the recovery figures aswell.
Ciara kelly on newstalk today sounded grand. After a week
Think claire byrne is back on RTE tonight.

ACitizenErased

alan partridge aha wrote: »

Said it nearly 2 weeks ago, the projected figure of 10 to 15k was not going to be correct. Italy had 35k 2weeks ago with a pop 12 times more than us. It was illogical to think that we would have half the amount of theirs by the end of month.

I've done some calculations based on other European countries and I reckon our worst-case scenario is ~6000 cases.

twirlagig

ShayNanigan wrote: »

My neighbours will be happy to hear that the measures have worked knowing they have changed absolutely nothing in their behaviour. I'm fully expecting them to throw a celebratory party in the weekend to celebrate "flattening the curve".

Please report if they do.

ShayNanigan

I'd like to know when will they have more accurate tests to use? Having 30% false negatives doesn't really sound good. Also, the tests are way too slow. What happened to the Irish guys who were developing a 15 minute test? Also, someone should really ask them when are they going to introduce immunity testing? I read today some countries are already planning on introducing tests to measure antibodies against the virus so that people might know if they've already had the virus and are immune.

iamwhoiam

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Wife was told of 6 people in her job that are feeling fine now. No symptoms anymore. Was announced in some meeting. I had a similar one with 2 people. Mates in different chats have said they know people who had it and are grand now. I also know 2 dopes who went to Cheltenham and are ok now. Not sure how many have been tested to get a thumbs up on the full recovery.

I'm just one person that has heard of a few being fine now so I'm sure there are loads of others who know people with it and over it. But maybe people need to be officially tested and clear of it to be counted as a recovery.

I know of three who are fine too . Another is asthmatic and it took longer but he is also fine

Ronin247

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

Wife was told of 6 people in her job that are feeling fine now. No symptoms anymore. Was announced in some meeting. I had a similar one with 2 people. Mates in different chats have said they know people who had it and are grand now. I also know 2 dopes who went to Cheltenham and are ok now. Not sure how many have been tested to get a thumbs up on the full recovery.

I'm just one person that has heard of a few being fine now so I'm sure there are loads of others who know people with it and over it. But maybe people need to be officially tested and clear of it to be counted as a recovery.

There were lots of people who "thought " they had it, (94% negative test results) and will now insist that they "recovered"

Duke of Url

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Question was asked about ICU numbers and they've indicated that these are the total numbers since the start. The reply was basically this is the way we report them.

Open to correction if I missed anything else there, connection cut out on me briefly

Yep. Doesn’t make sense. Maybe they are hiding the true number so to secure ventilators as priority.

Harry Palmr

Ficheall wrote: »

What's the point of it?

"you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now"

It helps to illustrate potential future outcomes.

ArchXStanton

spookwoman wrote: »

They dont have enough kit for testing and lab work by the looks of it.

Doesn't that kind of defeat the purpose, thousands waiting to be tested and meanwhile they're spreading it around

blackcard

Coyote wrote: »

Number updated to match today's report

I have added a Recovered column, this number is 80% of the infected 14+ days beforehand, this number does not included anyone needing hospital/ICU

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths
if anyone has questions or thinks it could be changed with better data let me know


interesting visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

Again thanks for those figures Coyote. I still think that in the short term and up to 2 weeks from now that the amount of deaths will be greater than shown on your graphs. Hopefully the amount of deaths will reduce from then on

domrush

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I've done some calculations based on other European countries and I reckon our worst-case scenario is ~6000 cases.

6000 cases when? Or do you mean 6000 in total? Will he miles more than that surely

Wibbs

darced wrote: »

I want to be really happy about how this is going but I just feel something doesn't add up. How are we doing so well?

Outside of testing and lock down, our biggest and luckiest advantage as a country as far as epidemics go is our low population density. About the lowest in Europe. Most Irish people live in self contained housing rather than in apartments.

So if you live on a street of semi dees and say go for your 2km walk, you encounter no shared surfaces, nor do you share enclosed air with other people. If you live in number 10 and Sean O'Soap living in number 18 is infected, you can avoid him and the virus completely. If you were living in an apartment and you were on the 5th floor and Joe was on the 6th he would have touched lift buttons, bannisters, door handles access buttons and shared the air of corridors and lifts etc. The outside panel with all the doorbells alone could be covered with viruses. You would have way more points of contact and way more potential infection vectors.

In places like Milan, Paris, Madrid, London, New York, Wuhan etc population density is significantly higher and many more people live in shared housing. And where are all the hotspots in nations? High population density cities and towns.

CitizenFloor

Why can't any of the journalists ask the simple direct question of how many ICU beds are empty? All the bull**** of cumalative number up to 12am as off two days ago. That answer at the conference just now seemed a bit evasive....have any of the cumalative numbers of beds been vacated. And how may ventilators do we have? Are they been ramped up directly proportional to the beds? Someone give me the mic.

smelly sock

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

Beasty

So they are saying they cannot say how many swabs have been taken but not tested, which beggars belief. They know exactly how many swabs have been taken and they know exactly how many test results they have. The difference between the two is the answer

Did they also just say that some of the labs were closed over the weekend? If so are today's and maybe yesterday's figures suppressed?

ACitizenErased

domrush wrote: »

6000 cases when? Or do you mean 6000 in total? Will he miles more than that surely

Peak.

joe_99

Sir Oxman wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/hungary-jail-for-coronavirus-misinformation-viktor-orban

Inevitable that the likes of Orban would go down this route.
Always good to have oversight of any draconian laws and the small print.

He's very unlikely to up these powers after

Deeper Blue

Holohan is unflappable in fairness to him

petes

smelly sock wrote: »

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

Ffs

cosanostra

darced wrote: »

They are very wishy-washy on the testing questions, just come out and tell us straight.

Sounds like we have ran out of chemicals to re animate the virus in the lab and stuggling to get more, so doing the tests is basically a smoke screen just now it also puts into question our figures