CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Wibbs

ArchXStanton wrote: »

Doesn't that kind of defeat the purpose, thousands waiting to be tested and meanwhile they're spreading it around

Hence social distancing.

ShayNanigan

twirlagig wrote: »

Please report if they do.

I can actually report them somewhere...? I don't want trouble with my neighbours but would be nice to know if it has been advised somewhere to report people not following the orders.

Beasty

smelly sock wrote: »

Why cant people just stay indoors.

These are from people who were possibly infected many weeks ago (the deaths) and possibly 2+ weeks ago (the positives) before any restrictions were put in place

Wolf359f

ArchXStanton wrote: »

Doesn't that kind of defeat the purpose, thousands waiting to be tested and meanwhile they're spreading it around

Those who believe to have the virus but are waiting on a test, have been told to self isolate.

owlbethere

The growth of this in Ireland has come down from approx. 33% down to 15% and that is good but more has to be done - that is from the briefing.

Does that mean there will be more restrictions?
If yes, what sort of restrictions?

Or

The effects of the measures implemented on Friday probably won't be seen yet.

Beasty

CitizenFloor wrote: »

Someone give me the mic.

You would risk an RTE mic??

:pac:

smelly sock

smelly sock wrote: »

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

Rein in the hyperbole a little, we're doing proportionally better than a lot of countries in Europe.

Arghus

NDWC wrote: »

Holohan is unflappable in fairness to him

He answers every question like a boss.

wakka12

alan partridge aha wrote: »

Said it nearly 2 weeks ago, the projected figure of 10 to 15k was not going to be correct. Italy had 35k 2weeks ago with a pop 12 times more than us. It was illogical to think that we would have half the amount of theirs by the end of month.

Italian cases are probably underrepresented by about a factor of 20x
Even the deaths in North Italy are supposedly up to 4 times higher than official estimates according to the mayor of Bergamo

wadacrack

Good answers from Holohan. Hes been quite good throughout this. Stick's to the facts unlike some I could mention

shocksy

smelly sock wrote: »

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

That's a bit dramatic.

Although 54 deaths is unfortunate, I'd hardly describe it as us being wiped out.

Kivaro

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We live on an island, low population density, high testing numbers and the government made fantastic decisions. It makes complete sense.

This is worth repeating.
Let's hope that the rate of infection stays at this level for the next few weeks.

And another thing; remember those high rises and high density buildings that many wanted in this country?
The lack of them may also contribute to the current results that we are seeing here in Ireland.
Look at the density levels in Spain and Italy versus Ireland, and then compare the rates of infection. Early days yet I know .....

growleaves

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...n-viktor-orban

Inevitable that the likes of Orban would go down this route.
Always good to have oversight of any draconian laws and the small print.

He's not the only one!

Coronavirus: California prepared to enact martial law if its a 'necessity', governor says

France 'at war': how Parisians are coping with life under lockdown

The coronavirus has killed 148 people and infected more than 6,600 in France, numbers experts expect to rise sharply in the coming weeks. Macron said that if necessary, the government would legislate by decree to combat the continuing spread of the virus, but companies, jobs and households would all be protected.

Duke of Url

I have to say. I feel safer living in Ireland then any other country in the EU in relation to the pandemic.

Jin luk

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Rein in the hyperbole a little, we're doing proportionally better than a lot of countries in Europe.

Yeah for now the spike still has to happen here the next few days it will come.

Wibbs

CitizenFloor wrote: »

Why can't any of the journalists ask the simple direct question of how many ICU beds are empty? All the bull**** of cumalative number up to 12am as off two days ago. That answer at the conference just now seemed a bit evasive....have any of the cumalative numbers of beds been vacated. And how may ventilators do we have? Are they been ramped up directly proportional to the beds? Someone give me the mic.

Location as well as basic numbers another issue. Clusters are going to form where there are more people for obvious reasons, so you might have X number of ICU beds in a regional hospital with low numbers, but in a city like Dublin you could run out of them more easily because of higher patient numbers.

ShayNanigan

I'm not convinced the measures are working that well. Not yet anyway. They've just run out of tests like the rest of the countries. If you look at the graphs on Worldometer for example, you can see the amount of cases is not really growing the way it would if they had enough testing capacity.

Beasty

owlbethere wrote: »

The growth of this in Ireland has come down from approx. 33% down to 15% and that is good but more has to be done - that is from the briefing.

Until they tell us how many results the figures are based on (each day) we really cannot tell

The easiest way to keep down the positives is to keep down the number of test results. I am not suggesting this is being done deliberately, but it does help "manage" the figures

Limpy

That's great. Looks like the kid's will get to go back to school soon.

ceadaoin.

smelly sock wrote: »

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

8 new deaths is being "wiped out"? Ffs is right. You're being ridiculous, try being in New York.

It is still the case that the vast vast majority of people who get this will recover fine and theres a good chance they wont even know they have it. Calm down, it's bad for you to get so worried and worked up

jam_mac_jam

Naggdefy wrote: »

I'm not criticising the government. I'm critiquing HSE projections.

We have more than enough cases and deaths. Stop virtue signalling and twisting my words for point scoring.

I prefer accurate projections. 15,000 was wrong as not enough tests, no where in the world was exponentially increasing by 30%.

It was a projected number based on us doing nothing. How do you know it's wrong as we brought in loads of measures to prevent that growth. How do you know what the number would be.

BLIZZARD7

smelly sock wrote: »

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

Have you ever made a post without 'ffs' ?

An Ciarraioch

owlbethere wrote: »

The growth of this in Ireland has come down from approx. 33% down to 15% and that is good but more has to be done - that is from the briefing.

Does that mean there will be more restrictions?
If yes, what sort of restrictions?

Or

The effects of the measures implemented on Friday probably won't be seen yet.

Even allowing for the Páirc Uí Chaoimh closure, 11% is still better than we were registering last week (generally 14-18%), should slow further as the impact of the measures to date takes effect.

Speak Now

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Peak.

Cant see us peaking at 6k, we'll be at that number this time next week imo.

ChikiChiki

smelly sock wrote: »

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

Slight over exaggeration. Calm down.

Coyote

blackcard wrote: »

Again thanks for those figures Coyote. I still think that in the short term and up to 2 weeks from now that the amount of deaths will be greater than shown on your graphs. Hopefully the amount of deaths will reduce from then on

Hi Blackcard

i would agree that the number i picked of 1% is a bit low to the numbers being reported, if i pick i higher number people will say i'm trying to scare people.
would you think that 1.6% about the same as S.Korea (they are a number of weeks ahead of us) is a good point, i'm open to the people of boards picking a number maybe 2%?

Regards

Coyote

Jinglejangle69

Regardless of tests.

The number of deaths don't lie or hide anything.

And were very low.

angel eyes 2012

Wibbs wrote: »

So if you live on a street of semi dees and say go for your 2km walk, you encounter no shared surfaces, nor do you share enclosed air with other people. If you live in number 10 and Sean O'Soap living in number 18 is infected, you can avoid him and the virus completely. If you were living in an apartment and you were on the 5th floor and Joe was on the 6th he would have touched lift buttons, bannisters, door handles access buttons and shared the air of corridors and lifts etc. The outside panel with all the doorbells alone could be covered with viruses. You would have way more points of contact and way more potential infection vectors.

In places like Milan, Paris, Madrid, London, New York, Wuhan etc population density is significantly higher and many more people live in shared housing. And where are all the hotspots in nations? High population density cities and towns.

With a surname like that, you would suspect Sean would be the last to get the virus and should have known better.

whisky_galore

These "postcards" are one of the more disappointing things to be shoved through the letterbox.

alan partridge aha

Cases in Italy have dropped to 4k which is a positive sign.

Wibbs

angel eyes 2012 wrote: »

With a surname like that, you would suspect Sean would be the last to get the virus and should have known better.

:pac::D:D:D

easypazz

Beasty wrote: »

Until they tell us how many results the figures are based on (each day) we really cannot tell

The easiest way to keep down the positives is to keep down the number of test results. I am not suggesting this is being done deliberately, but it does help "manage" the figures

Are we not increasing number of tests day on day?

Also tracing contacts, medical staff etc., so targeting possible cases rather than hypochondriacs which was happening at the start.

podgeandrodge

whisky_galore wrote: »

These "postcards" are one of the more disappointing things to be shoved through the letterbox.

As disappointing as not getting them at all? Or the leaflet for that matter, which is probably out of date by now!

Beasty

Wibbs wrote: »

Location as well as basic numbers another issue. Clusters are going to form where there are more people for obvious reasons, so you might have X number of ICU beds in a regional hospital with low numbers, but in a city like Dublin you could run out of them more easily because of higher patient numbers.

There may be another question in connection with clusters. Is there a possibility that certain doctors have been pushing more tests through than others. That in itself could result in clusters in certain areas but it does not mean there are not others in other (possibly all) areas

Antares35

Lavinia wrote: »

suicides are not hard to quanitify, in ireland over 300 people die from suicide every year so it means more than 1 per day.. so statistically it would mean that about 90 people lost their life in ireland already this year alone..

Its hard to quantify them pre-emptively I think was the point. Of course retrospective figures are quantifiable. Still, its a shocking number. Is this higher than the average? You would wonder if our legacy of institutional abuse and failure to provide justice for survivors is a leading cause. And perhaps out social acceptance of alcoholism. Who knows

ShayNanigan

I fear what's going to happen is that they are going to loosen the restrictions way too soon thinking we're in the clear. Back to the herd immunity plan I guess. All this talk about people being free to go as they please after seven days illness sounds very worrying too knowing that the virus will spread before symptoms and stay in the system infecting others for at least a month if not longer.

As for deaths, surely they are not going to test each and everyone dying of lung related symptoms. There will still be people with the cause of death simply listed as pneumonia and nothing more. The announced figures are still an estimate.

Nonoperational

Some people here know I work in a large Irish hospital at the moment as a doctor. Just to mention to the people saying this is bs, we aren’t testing, it’s all lies etc etc.


It is far too early to make any definitive statements, but, the weekend was quieter than expected in the Dublin area hospitals in general. There is a glint of some positivity. Massive massive work to do still. Let’s stay in for two weeks now and kills lots of virus.

shocksy

Limpy wrote: »

That's great. Looks like the kid's will get to go back to school soon.

No chance. September at the earliest.

twirlagig

ShayNanigan wrote: »

I can actually report them somewhere...? I don't want trouble with my neighbours but would be nice to know if it has been advised somewhere to report people not following the orders.

I’d be ringing the guards if it was me. Yes, possibly hard if you’re living in the country and the only house beside you is theirs?

John.Icy

Lads quit blaming testing capacity.

~95% of tests are negative. Thousands being tested. It just isn't a catastrophic amount of people infected that some weird people are looking for it seems??

Seriously...everytime the "200" new case comes out of Tony's mouth everyone jumps straight to "ah they just are not testing enough so the true number is hidden".

People are so desperate for a surge christ.

Jin luk

Speak Now wrote: »

Cant see us peaking at 6k, we'll be at that number this time next week imo.

Id say the bigger numbers to come this week if testing is still all good with plenty of capacity and the peak will happen around 14th to 15th

Bit cynical

darced wrote: »

I want to be really happy about how this is going but I just feel something doesn't add up. How are we doing so well?

The primary reason I think is that we were a little late to the party. So when we did our shut downs and social distancing, the virus had not yet gained such a foothold.

We're still on the same trajectory as Italy for deaths per million but this figure lags considerably cases of infection.



The above is a chart of deaths per million on a logarithmic scale starting from the first death in a country.

In terms of cases per million here's the chart for Ireland with the starting point at 100 cases.



We're doing much the same as a lot of countries according to the above chart. But the advantage of starting a little late is that we will benefit more from antivirals and eventual vaccines when they become available as well as being able to learn from other countries and prepare.

easypazz

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Regardless of tests.

The number of deaths don't lie or hide anything.

And were very low.

Hopefully, and hospitals are not seeing mass influx to ICU, which we should be seeing by now.

alan partridge aha

I like to know the % of deaths from C19 were old people in nursing homes.

Wibbs

Beasty wrote: »

There may be another question in connection with clusters. Is there a possibility that certain doctors have been pushing more tests through than others. That in itself could result in clusters in certain areas but it does not mean there are not others in other (possibly all) areas

TBH B I'm just looking at ICU and fatality figures. In the absence of blanket testing for nearly everyone they're the only sure way to know how we're doing.

walshb

I remember when Leo out the 15 k number out there, thinking he’d hardly be doing it without solid prediction advice...

Was it based off everyone behaving as they are at the time he said it?

spookwoman

reagents seems to be the issue now

kalkat2002

Families still walking together out there like holydays...

walshb

kalkat2002 wrote: »

Families still walking together out there like holydays...

As in prayer days?

quartz1

I think it's absolutely positive that Gardai will stop cars and question people as regards there movement during this period. I even find it acceptable that people have their phone tracked if its strictly regulated....I however find it unacceptable that there are no border controls....... we all do our best to flatten the curve but somebody flying in from abroad will be handed a leaflet asking them to self isolate for 14.days .