CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

rossie1977

Current growth rates are unsustainable according to the team.

I don’t want one but it looks like a lockdown is inevitable and probably sooner than we expect.

whisky_galore

podgeandrodge wrote: »

As disappointing as not getting them at all? Or the leaflet for that matter, which is probably out of date by now!

I'd be happier not getting any. They're an answer to a question no one asked.
Haven't even looked at the gaudy yellow leaflet yet, telling me things I've had drummed into me for the last couple of weeks no doubt.

Tell me how

walshb wrote: »

I remember when Leo out the 15 k number out there, thinking he’d hardly be doing it without solid prediction advice...

Was it based off everyone behaving as they are at the time he said it?

It was based on a day on day 30% increase between then and the end of the month.

Thankfully, we have managed to keep the increase much less than 30%

rob316

You got to be fairly positive in the numbers, its very stable no surge.

Busi_Girl08

walshb wrote: »

I remember when Leo out the 15 k number out there, thinking he’d hardly be doing it without solid prediction advice...

Was it based off everyone behaving as they are at the time he said it?

Basically yes, and without any of the current restrictions, school closures etc. In place.

RobertKK

Duke of Url wrote: »

I have to say. I feel safer living in Ireland then any other country in the EU in relation to the pandemic.

There are EU countries doing better than us.

We are only mid rank in the EU. Eastern Europe (EU countries) took stronger measures earlier and have done a better job.

Speak Now

Jin luk wrote: »

Id say the bigger numbers to come this week if testing is still all good with plenty of capacity and the peak will happen around 14th to 15th

Yeah even without a surge in percentage terms we should hit the "15k" by around April 18th. Hopefully the measures will be kicking in.

Tell me how

rossie1977 wrote: »

Current growth rates are unsustainable according to the team.

I don’t want one but it looks like a lockdown is inevitable and probably sooner than we expect.

How much more of a lockdown do you think there can be while still maintaining a functioning society?

walshb

Tell me how wrote: »

It was based on a day on day 30% increase between then and the end of the month.

Thankfully, we have managed to keep the increase much less than 30%

I get that, but based off us all still behaving the same each day I meant...

Jin luk

rossie1977 wrote: »

Current growth rates are unsustainable according to the team.

I don’t want one but it looks like a lockdown is inevitable and probably sooner than we expect.

What sort of lockdown?

owlbethere

kalkat2002 wrote: »

Families still walking together out there like holydays...

Families are allowed to go out and walk or jog within 2km.

Tell me how

walshb wrote: »

I get that, but based off us all still behaving the same each day I meant...

Yes, that would have been the inference.

Hence the changes in behavior, and thankfully, the apparent change in infections.

ceadaoin.

quartz1 wrote: »

I think it's absolutely positive that Gardai will stop cars and question people as regards there movement during this period. I even find it acceptable that people have their phone tracked if its strictly regulated....I however find it unacceptable that there are no border controls....... we all do our best to flatten the curve but somebody flying in from abroad will be handed a leaflet asking them to self isolate for 14.days .

I find it very worrying how people are lining up to give away their freedoms. Hard to get them back once it's done but yeah let's just go full on totalitarian regime, make sure you report your neighbours like a good citizen, what could possibly go wrong?

walshb

owlbethere wrote: »

Families are allowed to go out and walk or jog within 2km.

But advised to keep clear distancing!

easypazz

rossie1977 wrote: »

Current growth rates are unsustainable according to the team.

I don’t want one but it looks like a lockdown is inevitable and probably sooner than we expect.

Not much more they can do except increase enforcement of what is already in place.

Cork Boy 53

Limpy wrote: »

That's great. Looks like the kid's will get to go back to school soon.

No they won`t.

fullstop

smelly sock wrote: »

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

Dramatic much? Wiped out?!

FFS

marilynrr

rossie1977 wrote: »

I don’t want one but it looks like a lockdown is inevitable and probably sooner than we expect.

Are you seeing the same figures as the rest of us? the ones that are actually being reported?

The full lockdown that you keep going on about (because apparently we're not in lockdown yet) will be reserved for if our numbers start going completely out of control.

domrush

Wish people would stop throwing around the word lockdown at this stage.

bekker

Tony Holohan on last three questions he was directly asked ... We don't have that information etc... waffle ..waffle

Lengths of his answers are in inverse proportion to numerical information divulged.

walshb

Tell me how wrote: »

Yes, that would have been the inference.

Hence the changes in behavior, and thankfully, the apparent change in infections.

Gotcha...

Thanks!

darced

Did they just say that some slides are waiting 11 days because they have no reagent?

BanditLuke

ShayNanigan wrote: »

I'm not convinced the measures are working that well. Not yet anyway. They've just run out of tests like the rest of the countries. If you look at the graphs on Worldometer for example, you can see the amount of cases is not really growing the way it would if they had enough testing capacity.

We are doing okay. I'd like to see a massive increase in testing but at the end of the day and as cruel as it sounds I expected the death toll to be far greater at this stage. I'm delighted it's not.

We are far from out of the woods yet and my big fear is others looking at these numbers and saying fvuk it "it's only killing old people, im going back to normal"

Those people are our common enemy now.

kalkat2002

owlbethere wrote: »

Families are allowed to go out and walk or jog within 2km.

I thought it was individual
Anyway I prefer stay home btw

o1s1n

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I find it very worrying how people are lining up to give away their freedoms. Hard to get them back once it's done but yeah let's just go full on totalitarian regime, what could possibly go wrong?

Also hard to get freedoms back if you end up in ICU from coronavirus and suffocate to death.

walshb

fullstop wrote: »

Dramatic much? Wiped out?!

FFS

FFS!

Coyote

Bit cynical wrote: »

The primary reason I think is that we were a little late to the party. So when we did our shut downs and social distancing, the virus had not yet gained such a foothold.

We're still on the same trajectory as Italy for deaths per million but this figure lags considerably cases of infection.



This is a chart of deaths per million on a logarithmic scale starting from the first death in a country.

it's very dangerous to read too much in to a chart of death per million.
most of China, Italy and Spain cases were around one or two city's not the countries total numbers.
also the more we test the more we find that is not a bad thing
look at the number of cases and death of the uk verses Ireland
China has about .05 percent but that's because 99% of China was not in the zone of infection

Regards

Coyote

Duke of Url

Wibbs wrote: »

TBH B I'm just looking at ICU and fatality figures. In the absence of blanket testing for nearly everyone they're the only sure way to know how we're doing.

But the ICU numbers are incorrect. It’s not the current number. It’s the total who passed through the ICU. There must be a reason for it.

ninebeanrows

Some of these journalists sound like they are transition year students

otnomart

"across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions.
In Italy and Spain, where the epidemic is advanced, 38,000 [13,000-84,000] and 16,000 [5,400-35,000] deaths have been averted, respectively.
Even in the UK, which is much earlier in its epidemic, we predict 370 [73-1,000] deaths have been averted"
Source: Imperial College London
Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/COVID-19/

pjohnson

Wibbs wrote: »

TBH B I'm just looking at ICU and fatality figures. In the absence of blanket testing for nearly everyone they're the only sure way to know how we're doing.

But what exactly is the ICU figure. It changes daily between cumulative and current.

bilston

ShayNanigan wrote: »

I fear what's going to happen is that they are going to loosen the restrictions way too soon thinking we're in the clear. Back to the herd immunity plan I guess. All this talk about people being free to go as they please after seven days illness sounds very worrying too knowing that the virus will spread before symptoms and stay in the system infecting others for at least a month if not longer.

As for deaths, surely they are not going to test each and everyone dying of lung related symptoms. There will still be people with the cause of death simply listed as pneumonia and nothing more. The announced figures are still an estimate.

I reckon restrictions will be removed gradually and each time they loosen them the authorities will wait a couple of weeks to test the impact. There won't be a sudden click on the fingers and a return to normality.

Zardoz

walshb wrote: »

I remember when Leo out the 15 k number out there, thinking he’d hardly be doing it without solid prediction advice...

Was it based off everyone behaving as they are at the time he said it?

It was a ridiculously high figure .
Whether he did it for shock factor or just completely miscalculated I'm not sure.

rossie1977

Jin luk wrote: »

What sort of lockdown?

Public transport all suspended including private coaches and buses.

Car use prohibited unless in emergency

Forcing people to stay home, only one trip each week by written request. Anyone out without request is either sent home, fined or jailed depending on how times they disobey order.

Army and Gardaí patrolling every town in country

That sort of lockdown or something like we have seen in Italy.

Amirani

John.Icy wrote: »

Lads quit blaming testing capacity.

~95% of tests are negative. Thousands being tested. It just isn't a catastrophic amount of people infected that some weird people are looking for it seems??

This has increased since the changed case definition. But based on the new criteria, well over 80% of tests are still negative.

Jin luk

Coyote wrote: »

it's very dangerous to read too much in to a chart of death per million.
most of China, Italy and Spain cases were around one or two city's not the countries total numbers.
also the more we test the more we find that is not a bad thing
look at the number of cases and death of the uk verses Ireland
China has about .05 percent but that's because 99% of China was not in the zone of infection

Regards

Coyote

The 1st case in the uk was noticed alot sooner than our first case we were late to the party dont mean the death toll is going to start growing more and more once we run out of ventilators thats it then the death toll will fly up unfortunatly

Amirani

Duke of Url wrote: »

But the ICU numbers are incorrect. It’s not the current number. It’s the total who passed through the ICU. There must be a reason for it.

There's accurate numbers available. The likes of WorldoMeters is good, but not good for the likes of ICU admissions.

Juwwi

Dr Colm Henry seems a waste of time having on this ,,he never answers a question with a straight answer

kalkat2002

Zardoz wrote: »

It was a ridiculously high figure .
Whether he did it for shock factor or just completely m:rolleyes:iscalculated I'm not sure.

Maybe real cases are fair higher than 15k already so he did great

growleaves

We are far from out of the woods yet and my big fear is others looking at these numbers and saying fvuk it "it's only killing old people, im going back to normal"

Those people are our common enemy now.

"Common enemy". Terrible rhetoric from you BanditLuke.

Also its totally out of the hands of ordinary citizens. People with the 'wrong' opinion aren't going to be influencing public policy anytime soon.

Mike3549

Kivaro wrote: »

This is worth repeating.
Let's hope that the rate of infection stays at this level for the next few weeks.

And another thing; remember those high rises and high density buildings that many wanted in this country?
The lack of them may also contribute to the current results that we are seeing here in Ireland.
Look at the density levels in Spain and Italy versus Ireland, and then compare the rates of infection. Early days yet I know .....

Also sh*tty public transport helps

owlbethere

I was watching the briefing and I put my hand up in my to ask a question of the team but then I'm in my kitchen and not there in their conference room.


If there's any journalists here and going in for any briefing - can you ask a question from me but only if you want to:

According to news reports some countries got faulty PPE from china. Was the PPE that arrived into Ireland investigated for quality?

Achasanai

smelly sock wrote: »

Coronavirus: 8 more deaths and 295 new cases in Ireland confirmed

Holy ****. Feels like we are being wiped out ffs.

Why cant people just stay indoors.

Every one of your posts seems to react like this, regardless of the numbers. Were you expecting this to have blown over by now? Things will be increasing for some time, it's about getting the increase to within levels that our health service can manage, and increases below 15% are considered positive (in the grand sense of things).

Logan Roy

BanditLuke wrote: »

We are doing okay. I'd like to see a massive increase in testing but at the end of the day and as cruel as it sounds I expected the death toll to be far greater at this stage. I'm delighted it's not.

We are far from out of the woods yet and my big fear is others looking at these numbers and saying fvuk it "it's only killing old people, im going back to normal"

Those people are our common enemy now.

You can't go back to normal when there's nothing open

The government hold on the power now after closing most of the country.

is_that_so

RobertKK wrote: »

There are EU countries doing better than us.

We are only mid rank in the EU. Eastern Europe (EU countries) took stronger measures earlier and have done a better job.

I wouldn't be looking at league tables. There are any number of reasons why numbers are as they are, even pure luck. Our numbers are still rising but definitely going the right way towards that flat curve. In short, we do appear to be doing the right thing.

Coyote

Zardoz wrote: »

It was a ridiculously high figure .
Whether he did it for shock factor or just completely miscalculated I'm not sure.

no it was not a ridiculously high figure it was the growth rate of 30% which we were following till they made changes in public life.
damned if you do and damned if you don't, if they made not changes people would complain that we had 15K cases, if you warning people and making changes they your warning does not happen

ceadaoin.

o1s1n wrote: »

Also hard to get freedoms back if you end up in ICU from coronavirus and suffocating to death.

More hyperbole. It's almost like there may be ways to mitigate the spread of the virus which dont involve the government imprisoning and tracking people, as some in here are calling for. Perhaps something like what is happening already (which I completely agree with for the short term, but it isnt sustainable if we want a functioning society)

Amirani

Zardoz wrote: »

It was a ridiculously high figure .
Whether he did it for shock factor or just completely miscalculated I'm not sure.

It was based on expert modelling of unmitigated growth.

That's still the baseline growth rate in an uncontained scenario. This stuff is pretty basic, if you can't understand it it's probably worth leaving the figures/stats alone altogether?

Duke of Url

Amirani wrote: »

There's accurate numbers available. The likes of WorldoMeters is good, but not good for the likes of ICU admissions.

How many are in the ICU today?

Where do I find this please?

jackboy

Guards out pointing a scanner at cars but not stopping anyone. What is that about? It’s outside a town and definitely not a speed check.