CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

froog

darjeeling wrote: »

Now that the worldometers page includes numbers of tests done, here's a plot showing how the test:case ratio correlates with fatality rates.

Average current fatality rate based on closed cases is much higher in countries that have done under 10 tests for every case identified, and much lower in countries with over 40 tests for every case.

The reason is that countries that are doing limited testing relative to the size of the epidemic are failing to detect most of the less severe cases, and this shows up as an apparent higher fatality rate.



In Ireland, 30k tests had been completed by Thursday (IT link)- 6.6 tests for every case identified by today (the number may now be nearer 35k, but I can't find a current figure).
Our current closed case fatality rate is 85%. Assuming the number of patients who have been discharged is reasonably current, this is among the highest case fatality rates of any country. Only the UK and the Netherlands are higher.

To me, this shows how little testing we are doing relative to the size of the epidemic here.

My not very scientific reckoning based on having read / heard a lot and eyeballed a lot of numbers is that we are probably closer to 100,000 cases than 4,600.

the closed case fatality figure is meaningless. we aren't prioritizing recovered testing due to lack of test kits. i think you need two negative tests or something to be officially declared "recovered". most likely we have 1000+ actually recovered right now.

fr336

The trump press conferences are quite something

Doctor / scientist talks professionally and medically, trump pretends to listen and agree.

Trump comes back. "Yeah the democrats have posted a tweet and it was an operative it wasn't joe Biden you think he's watching this? Even if he did he wouldn't understand it"

He should be getting comedy awards for this stuff

Jim_Hodge

blackcard wrote: »

What are the other reasons for the different numbers?

Many at different stages of the epidemic. USA is only getting going now.

Cork Boy 53

from_atozinc wrote: »

Weird to watch the news and not have Corona as the first news item.

Haven`t been watching it. What was the first item?

GooglePlus

Ray Donovan wrote: »

People complaining about a tricolour flying from their neighbour's house?

Imagine complaining about a US flag flying in America.

Where do live? South Co Dublin?

I don't mind them putting it up, I'd just rather they changed the colour to match the curtains.

Ray Donovan

KathleenGrant wrote: »

Think the flag thing is in response to a "fly your club/county colours to show support for front line staff" initiative. Some of my grandkids have them flying. **** I miss them.

Ya, it was an joint initiative proposed by the INTO, ASTI, TUI and IPPN to show support for frontline staff and get a bit of colour up to brighten these gloomy days.

Jim_Hodge

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Just to reply to this. My local priest (bit of an oddball) has a Huge tricolour on display from window of his house.

Originally when he put it out I thought it was in support of the Irish rugby or soccer team but I THINK it’s some sort of patriotic gesture now.

Good few ppl have complained saying it’s out of place in a quiet residential area. I would agree.

Sounds like a good idea. I might do it here as a sign of support for those in Health, Retail etc who are helping up through this.

Thanks for the idea.

spookwoman

Jesus Trump is some sh*te talker

Roger_007

blackcard wrote: »

So breaking countries death rates per million into groups, you get the following;
Spain and Italy at 251 and 254. Spain going to overtake Italy shortly
France, Belgium, Holland and Switzerland at 116, 111, 96 and 77.
So far neighbouring EU countries.
UK at 64.
Iran an outlier at 41. Neighbouring countries a lot lower. Even Turkey at 6.
Sweden at 37 on a bit of a solo run as regards a lockdown.
Ireland, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Austria at 28, 28, 28, 26 and 21
So far generally EU countries. Probably travel related.
USA at 25.
Germany an outlier at 17. What are they doing right?
All Eastern European countries very low numbers. Russia 0.3 Rest of the world very low.
China at 2?????????????????
Almost definitely, there are differences in the way that some countries are reporting. Not including homes for the elderly.
What are the other reasons for the different numbers?

There also seems to be a north/south divide. Virtually all countries south of the Tropic of Cancer have extremely low rates of deaths per head of population by comparison with the northern countries.
Maybe there is something in the theory that there is a climate factor at work. I find it hard to believe that they are all lying about their statistics?

fin12

Does anyone know what China did after the SARS outbreak to prevent another pandemic?

It’s f*cking unreal how one country is responsible constantly for all these viruses.

Stheno

iguana wrote: »

There is the third and possibly most common option. Knowing you have a weird but relatively mild respiratory illness. Suspecting it's Covid but not knowing for sure (unless you are a celebrity). Probably not infecting anyone as you know you may have it, only being worried about your own health because you are sick during a pandemic but being pretty confident you'll be fine. Keeping your fingers crossed for antibody testing so you'll know for sure sooner rather than later.

Same here ref antibody testing

I'd a dose late Feb/early March which took weeks to get over I'd happily pay for an antibody test just to know

blackcard

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Many at different stages of the epidemic. USA is only getting going now.

Why have Germany such a low rate? Iran High, Canada low compared to the u.s.

bekker

froog wrote: »

the closed case fatality figure is meaningless. we aren't prioritizing recovered testing due to lack of test kits. i think you need two negative tests or something to be officially declared "recovered". most likely we have 1000+ actually recovered right now.

Our current test appears to be "Out of ICU?", "Still breathing?", "Then I'll just tick 'Recovered' ".

namloc1980

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Just to reply to this. My local priest (bit of an oddball) has a Huge tricolour on display from window of his house.

Originally when he put it out I thought it was in support of the Irish rugby or soccer team but I THINK it’s some sort of patriotic gesture now.

Good few ppl have complained saying it’s out of place in a quiet residential area. I would agree.

The national flag is out of place flying in Ireland!? Some people are very weird.

Beechwoodspark

namloc1980 wrote: »

The national flag is out of place flying in Ireland!? Some people are very weird.

Don’t want to derail the thread. Just to say it’s a HUGE flag.

Looks ridiculous and out of place/not becoming in a quiet residential area. My last word on the topic in this thread.

Stheno

One of my neighbours has a big banner that his kids made saying smile in the window

Cheers me up every time I go past

I'm thinking of doing the bear in the window in case any parents take their kids out hunting bears

Nonoperational

Back from another long shift this weekend. Sitting down watching Trump with a beer and realising that although we are not perfect it could be a lot worse.

The hospitals are getting busier but a lot of the extra business is "normal" stuff that was sitting at home for 2 weeks. COVID presentations relatively stable. In our institution ICU getting an extra 2-3 per day pretty solidly. Hopefully there will be a point soon where people leave ICU at a similar rate to those coming in. Our ICU is full but we have plenty of extra spaces available yet in pre planned areas that will act as temporary ICUs.

Many many people are recovering, I think the worldometer figures are not updated because we don't necessarily require negative swabs to be recovered. We still send most COVID queries and some COVID positive patients home.

I had a discussion with colleagues today and the consensus is that we are managing ok so far. It's not brilliant but certainly it's not disastrous either.

Regarding the Chinese PPE, it's a mixed bag. Some is ok. Some is more heavy duty than we are used to. Some isn't suitable. It's all been inspected and document has been circulating with pictures and commentary of each piece received. Discussions are ongoing to modify future shipments.

bekker

fin12 wrote: »

Does anyone know what China did after the SARS outbreak to prevent another pandemic?

It’s f*cking unreal how one country is responsible constantly for all these viruses.

Or to put it another way, amazing that 17.82 % of the global population has only incurred two major animal to human virus transfers.

Beasty

A number of posts deleted

Stop the discussion of other posters and get back on topic

from_atozinc

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Haven`t been watching it. What was the first item?

Good news actually, some scumbag murdered.

citysights

growleaves wrote: »

It isn't as if turning the whole world into a prison is standard medical practice for dealing with any virus. In the past it was sick people who were quarantined.

Before this illness, the word 'lockdown' was exclusively used in relation to prisons. Only convicted murderers and the like were locked down.

I’d agree that the term lockdown has very negative connotations, terrifying for any person with a nervous disposition or in fact anyone who would be feeling that bit more vulnerable.

wadacrack

So depressing that Trump is the leader of USA in this crisis. This press conference is so weird and totally inappropriate in the middle of a pandemic. Sending the completely wrong messages to the American public.

cameramonkey

Strazdas wrote: »

Latest figure is 37k according to Simon Harris

Up to what day was that?

Stheno

Thanks for an update from the ground

And of course thanks to you and your colleagues for all you are doing

bekker

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Just to reply to this. My local priest (bit of an oddball) has a Huge tricolour on display from window of his house.

Originally when he put it out I thought it was in support of the Irish rugby or soccer team but I THINK it’s some sort of patriotic gesture now.

Good few ppl have complained saying it’s out of place in a quiet residential area. I would agree.

When do you relocate?

Gael23

This thread is open for 5 days. News must be getting slow!

shesty

Nonoperational wrote: »

Back from another long shift this weekend. Sitting down watching Trump with a beer and realising that although we are not perfect it could be a lot worse.

The hospitals are getting busier but a lot of the extra business is "normal" stuff that was sitting at home for 2 weeks. COVID presentations relatively stable. In our institution ICU getting an extra 2-3 per day pretty solidly. Hopefully there will be a point soon where people leave ICU at a similar rate to those coming in. Our ICU is full but we have plenty of extra spaces available yet in pre planned areas that will act as temport ICUs.

Many many people are recovering, I think the worldometer figures are not updated because we don't necessarily require negative swabs to be recovered. We still send most COVID queries and some COVID positive patients home.

I had a discussion with colleagues today and the consensus is that we are managing ok so far. It's not brilliant but certainly it's not disastrous either.

Regarding the Chinese PPE, it's a mixed bag. Some is ok. Some is more heavy duty than we are used to. Some isn't suitable. It's all been inspected and document has been circulating with pictures and commentary of each piece received. Discussions are ongoing to modify future shipments.

Nice factual common-sense post.....thank you for that.

fritzelly

Nonoperational wrote: »

Back from another long shift this weekend. Sitting down watching Trump with a beer and realising that although we are not perfect it could be a lot worse.

The hospitals are getting busier but a lot of the extra business is "normal" stuff that was sitting at home for 2 weeks. COVID presentations relatively stable. In our institution ICU getting an extra 2-3 per day pretty solidly. Hopefully there will be a point soon where people leave ICU at a similar rate to those coming in. Our ICU is full but we have plenty of extra spaces available yet in pre planned areas that will act as temport ICUs.

Many many people are recovering, I think the worldometer figures are not updated because we don't necessarily require negative swabs to be recovered. We still send most COVID queries and some COVID positive patients home.

I had a discussion with colleagues today and the consensus is that we are managing ok so far. It's not brilliant but certainly it's not disastrous either.

Regarding the Chinese PPE, it's a mixed bag. Some is ok. Some is more heavy duty than we are used to. Some isn't suitable. It's all been inspected and document has been circulating with pictures and commentary of each piece received. Discussions are ongoing to modify future shipments.

Voice of reason in a mad world
TYFYS

Achasanai

blackcard wrote: »

Almost definitely, there are differences in the way that some countries are reporting. Not including homes for the elderly.
What are the other reasons for the different numbers?

Put them into a chart and compare by day of first death and you'll see most of us are toeing the very same line. Figures in Italy/Spain/Belgium/Etc seem crazy high because they have such higher populations. Ours seem more manageable because we are comparing the overall figures.


But you do also have some countries not reporting the correct figures. I'm not sure if we've always been including nursing home deaths in our overall death rates, but some countries are not (apparently).

blackcard wrote: »

Why have Germany such a low rate? Iran High, Canada low compared to the u.s.

Better health service, one that's available to all? Different ways of reporting figures/manipulating data? Data showing countries at different stages of the disease?

speckle

spookwoman wrote: »

Jesus Trump is some sh*te talker

and they are all touching the podium. hope they wash their hands!