CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Nermal

https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=126_126496-evgsi2gmqj&title=Evaluating_the_initial_impact_of_COVID-19_containment_measures_on_economic_activity

An OECD report costing the containment measures.

Ireland is one of the least affected countries.

Assuming the economy magically came back to life when the shutdown ends (totally unrealistic), the measures would still take 15% off full-year GDP.

This is costing us at least €865m per week in lost output.

In the years to come we will look on this as a death of Diana-style mass delusion.

is_that_so

gabeeg wrote: »

It was 26 days ago, and it was utter, utter rubbish.

Not at that time. 20:20 hindsight is no insight.

Lavinia

jackboy wrote: »

Guards out pointing a scanner at cars but not stopping anyone. What is that about? It’s outside a town and definitely not a speed check.

does sound like a speed check ?

Jim_Hodge

GM228 wrote: »

DAY

|

DATE

|

Cases

|

New Cases

|

Total Cases

|

Case Increase

|

Daily Reporting Change

|

Deaths to date

|

Mortality Rate

|

Hospitalised

|

Hospital Rate

|

ICU

|

ICU Rate

|

*Recovered

|

Recovery Rate

|

Population %

|

**Current Active Cases

1|29/02/2020|0|1|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|1
2|01/03/2020|1|0|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|1
3|02/03/2020|1|0|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|1
4|03/03/2020|1|1|2|100.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|2
5|04/03/2020|2|4|6|200.00%|300.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|6
6|05/03/2020|6|7|13|116.67%|75.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|13
7|06/03/2020|13|5|18|38.46%|-28.57%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|18
8|07/03/2020|18|1|19|5.56%|-80.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|19
9|08/03/2020|19|2|21|10.53%|100.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|21
10|09/03/2020|21|3|24|14.29%|50.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|24
11|10/03/2020|24|10|34|41.67%|233.33%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%|34
12|11/03/2020|34|9|43|26.47%|-10.00%|1|2.33%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%|42
13|12/03/2020|43|27|70|62.79%|200.00%|1|1.43%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%|69
14|13/03/2020|70|20|90|28.57%|-25.93%|1|1.11%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.002%|89
15|14/03/2020|90|39|129|43.33%|95.00%|2|1.55%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.003%|127
16|15/03/2020|129|40|169|31.01%|2.56%|2|1.18%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.003%|167
17|16/03/2020|169|54|223|31.95%|35.00%|2|0.90%|84|37.7%|6|2.69%|5|2.24%|0.005%|216
18|17/03/2020|223|69|292|30.94%|27.78%|2|0.68%|108|37%|7|2.40%|5|1.71%|0.006%|285
19|18/03/2020|292|74|366|25.34%|7.25%|2|0.55%|140|38.8%|12|3.28%%|5|1.37%|0.007%|359
20|19/03/2020|366|191|557|52.19%|158.11%|3|0.54%|173|31.1%|13|2.33%|5|0.9%|0.011%|549
21|20/03/2020|557|126|683|22.62%|-34.03%|3|0.44%|211|30.9%|13|1.90%|5|0.73%|0.014%|675
22|21/03/2020|683|102|785|14.93%|-19.05%|3|0.38%|239|30.4%|25|3.18%|5|0.64%|0.016%|777
23|22/03/2020|785|121|906|15.41%|18.63%|4|0.44%|277|30.6%|36|3.97%|5|0.64%|0.018%|897
24|23/03/2020|906|219|1125|24.17%|80.99%|6|0.53%|305|27.1%|39|3.47%|5|0.44%|0.023%|1114
25|24/03/2020|1129|204|1329|18.13%|-6.85%|7|0.53%|340|25.61|47|3.54%|5|0.38%|0.027%|1317
26|25/03/2020|1329|235|1564|17.68%|15.20%|9|0.58%|419|26.8%|59|3.77%|5|0.32%|0.032%|1550
27|26/03/2020|1564|255|1819|16.30%|8.51%|19|1.04%|489|26.9%|67|3.68%|5|0.27%|0.037%|1795
28|27/03/2020|1819|302|2121|16.60%|18.43%|22|1.04%|564|26.6%|70|3.30%|5|0.24%|0.043%|2094
29|28/03/2020|2121|294|2415|13.86%|-2.65%|36|1.49%|645|26.7%|84|3.48%|5|0.21%|0.049%|2374
30|29/03/2020|2415|200|2615|8.28%|-31.97%|46|1.76%|NR|NR|84|3.21%|5|0.19%|0.053%|2564
31|30/03/2020|2615|295|2910|8.28%|47.50%|54|1.86%|NR|NR|84|2.89%|5|0.17%|0.059%|2851

NR = Not Reported

Source: Department of Health and the Health Protection Surveillaence Centre.

*"Recovered" rates are not reported by the Department of Health in the above link, these figures are taken from the Worldmeters and Johns Hopkins websites which use data suplied by the DoT to the ECDC under the WHO Guidelines for reporting. Recovered statistics can only be published as "recovered" following two successful tests of being clear of the virus under the WHO reporting guidelines, as a result it is likely the recovered data is skewed.

** Due to the above issue with reporting of revovered cases the number of active cases is also likely skewed.

Day 20 - Thursday 19/03/20 Stats
Day 21 - Friday 20/03/20 Stats
Day 22 - Saturday 21/03/20 Stats
Day 23 - Sunday 22/03/20 Stats
Day 24 - Monday 23/03/20 Stats
Day 25 - Tuesday 24/03/20 Stats
Day 26 - Wednesday 25/03/20 Stats
Day 27 - Thursday 26/03/20 Stats
Day 28 - Friday 27/03/20 Stats
Day 29 - Saturday 28/03/20 Stats
Day 30 - Sunday 29/03/20 Stats

Is the % increase for today correct?

Wolf359f

wakka12 wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-9-000-people-with-covid-19-being-treated-in-hospital-11965880
Almost 3000 people hospitalised in England since Friday

22,000 confirmed cases in the UK and 9,000 hospitalized, goes to show how lack of testing outside of the hospitals skews the confirmed cases number.

bekker

Wolf359f wrote: »

He doesn't have up to date info as it has to be complied and isn't released daily, last update:
Healthcare workers
Travel related 85
No foreign travel 268
Under investigation 92
Total 445
*All statistics measured at midnight on Thursday 26 March.

Not 'up to date', "no information".

Doctors in HSE infected/doctors in HSE = % doctors in HSE infected.

marilynrr

Coyote wrote: »

i'm not under rating the number of people who might commit suicide, but the other option is open spread of covid19 and we have seen what Italy/Spain looks like with 1000 people a day dead.
that number is only a small % of the people if the full country of Italy/Spain was allow to be infected. the numbers would be 100's times higher.
people will be stressed or worried about loads of things without even covid19 but the clam we should just open up so a very small % of people are not stressed and let a lot more die is makes no sense

Coyote

I absolutely agree with this initial lockdown to spread the curve. I think we need to do it to give ourselves a chance.

But after that I expect maybe one extension at the most and measures easing up, they're going to have to.

It's not just stress, some people are now in lockdown in unbearable situations, in abusive households, or in households where they had been already planning on leaving their spouse, now they're locked up with them.
Wait until we see the stories that come out after all of this about how this has all affected those people.

To make it worse then there are the doomsdayers saying we'll be in lockdown for a year or more until a vaccine comes out.

People need to be careful of what they say because for those in unbearable situations saying things like that might just push them over the edge.

Nermal

Nermal wrote: »

https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=126_126496-evgsi2gmqj&title=Evaluating_the_initial_impact_of_COVID-19_containment_measures_on_economic_activity

An OECD report costing the containment measures.

Ireland is one of the least affected countries.

Assuming the economy magically came back to life when the shutdown ends (totally unrealistic), the measures would still take 15% off full-year GDP.

This is costing us at least €865m per week in lost output.

In the years to come we will look on this as a death of Diana-style mass delusion.

Surely its better to be safe than sorry

Its long since time the econmy served the people than vice versa anyway,

wakka12

darjeeling wrote: »

Latest modelling from Imperial College group estimates ~10% of Italian population infected = 5.9M people (95% conf interval = 1.9M to 15.2M)

Even higher estimate for Spain: 15% = 7M (95% CI 1.8M to 19M).

link

Seems like an overestimate. That would put the mortality at the same as flu. The mortality rate for flu in Italy is 3 per 100,000
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/13/5/06-1309_article

For the 32 influenza seasons studied, excess deaths averaged 3 per 100,000 population (range 0–38) for P&I and 18 per 100,000 for AC (range 0–107). Influenza accounted for an estimated 57,243 deaths from P&I (average 1,789 per season) and 318,806 from AC (average 9,963 per season).

Already at this point the deaths in Italy put it at 19.2 deaths per 100,000
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

73bc61lyohr0mu

Lost my job today. Great craic. I applied for the covid 19 payment on welfare. It says I needed to apply for job seekers as well. Did that. I'm guessing that was what's supposed to be done?

Thelonious Monk

Over in Greece, political figures have been prompted to volunteer half of their salaries over the next two months to help the cash-strapped state combat the novel virus.

I wonder if we'd ever see the same here?

Lavinia

Lavinia wrote: »

does sound like a speed check ?

Yep

Cork Boy 53

twirlagig wrote: »

I noticed that this evening. They’re everywhere... why would you dump them in the middle of a street? I live in a small town, only about 2 shops open in the whole length of the town and there’s a bin every 20metres or so...

Typical Irish behaviour pandemic or no pandemic. Same story with the disgraceful fly tipping, Now is the perfect opportunity to implement a zero tolerance approach here to stamp out this behaviour once and for all.

JP Liz V1

niallo27 wrote: »

It's pretty good actually. Them numbers are really encouraging.

How so, we have a backlog of testing and social distancing has been in place since second week of March, when are we expecting the surge peak?

sterz

gabeeg wrote: »

It was 26 days ago, and it was utter, utter rubbish.

And 31 days ago Ireland recorded it's first case. Give over ffs.

Kermit.de.frog

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I wonder if we'd ever see the same here?

There is no requirement for that.

Makes no difference to anyone.

Galwayguy35

Harris looks wrecked over on twitter.

gabeeg

is_that_so wrote: »

Not at that time. 20:20 hindsight is no insight.

There was major outbreaks in Asia at the time.
Italy had over 3,000 known cases when he said that. Spain had over 200. Germany 59 etc etc

It wasn't a matter of hindsight. All that was required was regular sight.

They had that come-to-jesus moment where someone scared the crap out of them. Prior to that they were objectively terrible.

Holohan, given his position, should have been far more knowledgeable and wary of the virus. Instead he was telling us it was grand and there was no threat to Paddy's day.

Whitewash all this if it makes you feel more secure

STB.

STB. wrote: »

Serious lack of reagents. I gather that's why a lot of tests had to be dropped on the 24th. Had to be more pin point with them. That is the case as of the weekend where Senior HSE staff gave individual presentations to the press and said as much.

It also explains why ICU fugures more than tripled between the 20th and the 24th. ICU figures went to 88 with COVID19. Thats people turning up in a bad way, some of which were probably awaiting tests. They are the quite serious cases, requiring ventilation. Covid19 and normal ICU patients share overall ICU capacity.


And thats where the trouble lies. Only 500 ICU beds between public and private, at this time.

But that 88 was not the number of people in ICU it was the total number who have passed through ICU since our first case. This ICU figure being misreported as current number is getting very very annoying as it’s giving a false picture.

owlbethere

gabeeg wrote: »

“So, we can continue to be able to assure people that the risk of an individual in this country today picking up this infection in the community in Ireland is extremely low.”

Tony Holohan, 4th March

I was slow to understand the process but it came to me.

The main transmission route for the virus is human to human transmission.

At that time, the 4th of March, there was only 1 or 2 confirmed cases in Ireland and the authorities were scrambling to put their contacts into isolation.

At that time, the risk was low.

The situation has now changed in which they have addressed with the new restriction measures.

bennyl10

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Incorrect. Slightly over 11%.

Slightly under 11.
10.12%

rossie1977

niallo27 wrote: »

It's pretty good actually. Them numbers are really encouraging.

Team said current numbers are unsustainable in press conference

Duke of Url

Saw the Gardai pulling over a UK reg car yesterday in Kildare. I wonder if many people are getting caught out on VRT

Genesis Lively Trigonometry

Genesis Lively Trigonometry wrote: »

Lost my job today. Great craic. I applied for the covid 19 payment on welfare. It says I needed to apply for job seekers as well. Did that. I'm guessing that was what's supposed to be done?

As in job is gone??

I only applied for the payment as we are closed...im.hopeful my job will still be there when i get back

Either way,you have 12 week at higher rate?

irishlad.

Graph from Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group.

RobertKK

An Ri rua wrote: »

Belarus is pretty much a dictatorship. Certainly not in the EU.

Exactly and it is why I did not use it, despite being asked about Belarus.

cnocbui

60 people turned up to a choir practice in Mt Vernon, Washington for choir practice. 45 have now tested positive for the virus, at least 3 are in IC and two are dead.

No one was coughing or sneezing, which the WHO have been saying would be necessary to create the large droplets they think are needed for transmission.

This incident means the WHO are wrong and that asymptomatic infected people can infect others simply by exhaling fine aerosols, meaning it's essentially airborne transmissible.

Moral of the story, ignore the WHO, they aren't on the ball.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

marno21

is_that_so wrote: »

That's a lifetime ago and it was true then.

This was true at the time. Some perspective is useful here

Even now the confirmed cases in the country is less than 0.1% of the population

bekker

is_that_so wrote: »

Not at that time. 20:20 hindsight is no insight.

Not 20-20 hindsight, there was nothing then to support his assertion, he had to know it was erroneous given the suspected date it went wild in Cork (~21-24th Feb.), and then known 40%+ (WHO), unaware infected.

Frank Bullitt

irishlad. wrote: »

Graph from Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group.

Bookmark this for those who think the government etc haven't done a thing or have acted slowly...cough Paddy Cosgrave cough

Ace2007

gabeeg wrote: »

There was major outbreaks in Asia at the time.
Italy had over 3,000 known cases when he said that. Spain had over 200. Germany 59 etc etc

It wasn't a matter of hindsight. All that was required was regular sight.

They had that come-to-jesus moment where someone scared the crap out of them. Prior to that they were objectively terrible.

Holohan, given his position, should have been far more knowledgeable and wary of the virus. Instead he was telling us it was grand and there was no threat to Paddy's day.

Whitewash all this if it makes you feel more secure

Gabeeg you must have made a fortune in the last month - given that you foreseen what was coming - betting against the market over last month - be near millionaire....

But I'm guessing that you didn't, and it really is just 20/20 hindsight vision you have.

Looptheloop30

Or its just widespread in Washington...

tobefrank321

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Even allowing for the Páirc Uí Chaoimh closure, 11% is still better than we were registering last week (generally 14-18%), should slow further as the impact of the measures to date takes effect.

Re the Pairc Ui Chaoinh closure, does that mean no-one was tested in Cork that day?

I wish they'd give us the number of confirmed cases and total tests. Its hard to identify trends if you don't know how many have been tested.

jackboy

Lavinia wrote: »

does sound like a speed check ?

It wasn’t. It was at a crossroads and they were pointing it a line of cars doing about 30 kph. Lots of people going home after work.

Loafing Oaf

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

Suicide rates will go through the roof, also alcoholism. More people will die this year from the above than the virus.

That's some pretty quick-onset alcoholism:eek:

darjeeling

wakka12 wrote: »

Seems like an overestimate. That would put the mortality at the same as flu. The mortality rate for flu in Italy is 3 per 100,000
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/13/5/06-1309_article


Already at this point the mortality rate for coronavirus in italy is 19.2/100,000
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Given the exponential growth up until not long ago, many of the people currently infected will have become so only recently, so that needs to be factored into the calculation of fatality rates.

We really need to see some antibody test results as soon as the reliability of the tests is established.

stretchaq

rossie1977 wrote: »

Public transport all suspended including private coaches and buses.

Car use prohibited unless in emergency

Forcing people to stay home, only one trip each week by written request. Anyone out without request is either sent home, fined or jailed depending on how times they disobey order.




Army and Gardaí patrolling every town in country

That sort of lockdown or something like we have seen in Italy.

Don’t believe all you see on the news, you do realise that all factories are open in Italy, we actually collect masks there and there tile steel and stone industries are all still working it’s the exact same there as here

STB.

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Is the % increase for today correct?

The data is useless without test numbers.


It is also incorrect as it hasn't captured ICU numbers correctly. They tripled between two HSE reports 20th and 24th. Hospital admission were +61% and ICU 176%.

1641

bekker wrote: »

Tony Honohan was asked directly for % of doctors infected in Irish health care system, he said he didn't have any figures on that and then segued into a rambling discourse on how health workers could have acquired infection.

I've watched his performances in front of committees over the years and it's a favourite tactic of his when he eiher doesn't have an answer that he could reasonably be expected to have, or he seeks to avoid the logical follow-on.

The journalist referred to a figure of something like 20 -25% of doctors in the NHS being out with the infection. Holohan said he didn't have the figure for Irish doctors but that it is nowhere like this. He had already given the figure for health workers, so obviously doctors are included in this. I don't see it as being a figure he could reasonably be expected to have had to hand - or see a reason to be evasive about it if he had it.
As regards health workers acquiring the infection, we already know that some picked it up on holiday and returned to work with it (unknowingly). It is perfectly plausible that health workers have picked it up in this way directly, or from other health workers who had it - or, indeed, community transmission like anyone else. Also health workers are more likely to get tested than the general public so they would show up disproportionately in the numbers anyway.


This is not to detract in any way from the need for health workers to get PPE.


As regards nursing homes, as they heavily restricted visiting from an early stage (I think against public health advise - I'm not sure?) where do you think the source of nursing home infections lay? We have not been told - It is my surmise that a significant amount was from health workers. Again this is in no way to suggest any blame or to lessen their need for PPE.

owlbethere

rossie1977 wrote: »

Team said current numbers are unsustainable in press conference

They did say they need this to flatten more.

Hopefully the restrictions implemented of Friday night last will help.

tobefrank321

Ace2007 wrote: »

Gabeeg you must have made a fortune in the last month - given that you foreseen what was coming - betting against the market over last month - be near millionaire....

But I'm guessing that you didn't, and it really is just 20/20 hindsight vision you have.

He's only stating facts. Plenty on here predicted a spread from Italy and Cheltenham. And thought st patricks day parades going ahead were idiotic. Want me to find the posts from then?

gabeeg

Ace2007 wrote: »

Gabeeg you must have made a fortune in the last month - given that you foreseen what was coming - betting against the market over last month - be near millionaire....

But I'm guessing that you didn't, and it really is just 20/20 hindsight vision you have.

I posted here right through it. You can go read my posts and see that I strongly disagreed with him at the time.

And I was right and Mr Holohan was wrong.

Allinall

gabeeg wrote: »

“So, we can continue to be able to assure people that the risk of an individual in this country today picking up this infection in the community in Ireland is extremely low.”

Tony Holohan, 4th March

That statement still holds true.

Wolf359f

cnocbui wrote: »

60 people turned up to a choir practice in Mt Vernon, Washington for choir practice. 45 have now tested positive for the virus, at least 3 are in IC and two are dead.

No one was coughing or sneezing, which the WHO have been saying would be necessary to create the large droplets they think are needed for transmission.

This incident means the WHO are wrong and that asymptomatic infected people can infect others simply by exhaling fine aerosols, meaning it's essentially airborne transmissible.

Moral of the story, ignore the WHO, they aren't on the ball.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

Officials has said it can be transmitted via breath, but you would have to be literally face to face. It's a choir, I assume they were singing off the top of their lungs, which I imagine would have aerosoled it. They were also in contact for over 2 hours

YFlyer

Is there only one positive case so far that was at Cheltenham? County Limerick, I believe.

Ace2007

tobefrank321 wrote: »

He's only stating facts. Plenty on here predicted a spread from Italy and Cheltenham. And thought st patricks day parades going ahead were idiotic. Want me to find the posts from then?

But then why not go and bet against the market and make yourself a fortune from it?

It's like those saying they knew the crash was coming in 2008/2009 - it's easy to say a recession is coming, but to know when it's coming and how bad it's going to get is different.

All you posters are the same and I put it to someone two days ago - to name the 5 things you would do going forward and they refused to do it - because it they name them, and they are wrong - people will use it against them.

So I say to you Frank - 5 distinct things that should happen now going forward to help improve the situation.

bekker

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Re the Pairc Ui Chaoinh closure, does that mean no-one was tested in Cork that day?

I wish they'd give us the number of confirmed cases and total tests. Its hard to identify trends if you don't know how many have been tested.

No from what I gathered from the briefing, they were up to date with scheduled tests before closing.

STB.

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

But that 88 was not the number of people in ICU it was the total number who have passed through ICU since our first case. This ICU figure being misreported as current number is getting very very annoying as it’s giving a false picture.

No it is not. Where did you even get that idea ? The ICU numbers are probably the most important right now. As they are the numbers that effectively mean ventilators. We have 500 of them in the whole country, which should be enough to scare the shít out of anyone who is even mildly good at maths.

The 88 were the number of people in ICU with Covid19 as of Saturday per Senior HSE staff who gave a presentation to journalists.

It tripled between 20th and 24th alone!

There are currently 84 with Covid19 in ICU. And of course ICU equipment is not exclusively for Covid19 patients.

saabsaab

Ace2007 wrote: »

Gabeeg you must have made a fortune in the last month - given that you foreseen what was coming - betting against the market over last month - be near millionaire....

But I'm guessing that you didn't, and it really is just 20/20 hindsight vision you have.

I don't think you are being fair. look back at the earlier threads on this much of what has happened was predicted not with hindsight. Our powers that be were slow off the mark here look at some of their earlier statements. That's not to say they aren't doing what they can now.

owlbethere

cnocbui wrote: »

60 people turned up to a choir practice in Mt Vernon, Washington for choir practice. 45 have now tested positive for the virus, at least 3 are in IC and two are dead.

No one was coughing or sneezing, which the WHO have been saying would be necessary to create the large droplets they think are needed for transmission.

This incident means the WHO are wrong and that asymptomatic infected people can infect others simply by exhaling fine aerosols, meaning it's essentially airborne transmissible.

Moral of the story, ignore the WHO, they aren't on the ball.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

This is very worrying.

Surely scientists are studying this. Is there anything coming up from scientific studies on this virus about the transmission?