CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

cnocbui

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kilkenny31

nocoverart wrote: »

I thought Scientists debunked the warm weather thing with absolute certainty.

They're might be some truth in it tho. If you look at the past few days the numbers have been falling and if you look say at Australia who are in the middle of their summer the rate of spread is quiet low. Also Italy the spread was far worse i the cooler damper north of Italy. I know the theory isn't solid but maybe as we come into the spring summer months the figures may drop.

gozunda

bekker wrote: »

For hopefully the final time.


Incorrect, health and security are not EU competencies, even allowed to exclude under Schengen.

For the ultimate time or whatever...

Incorrect and wrong.

We are not part of Schengen.

Exceptional measures as required. See Germany closing its borders for details.

But sure little ol' Ireland only does what's its told by the same ...

murpho999

kilkenny31 wrote: »

They're might be some truth in it tho. If you look at the past few days the numbers have been falling and if you look say at Australia who are in the middle of their summer the rate of spread is quiet low. Also Italy the spread was far worse i the cooler damper north of Italy. I know the theory isn't solid but maybe as we come into the spring summer months the figures may drop.

I really think it's a myth.

It's not summer in Australia for one thing.

Also, how come the virus survives inside the body with temperature of 37 degrees?

STB.

Roger_007 wrote: »

I don’t think they needed to do much research. It’s long been known that viruses don’t survive or transmit as well in warm bright weather. The don’t like UV light. That’s why seasonal flu is seasonal. It could be that Covid will follow that pattern, we just don’t know yet as it’s a new virus. The danger is that if everyone is cooped up in their homes we may not get the benefit of the warm sunshine.

You might want to check the temperatures where it is rampant right now.

Mervyn Skidmore

gozunda wrote: »

If we had acted early enough - we wouldnt had even more of our own homegrown eejits jetting off on holiday simply because they could.

And even quarentining the returning gob****es who had decided to head off in the midst of a global epidemic

But sure we weren't allowed to close boarders according to our EU masters - even whilst they were closing theirs off

You couldnt making it up tbh ...

Sorry but this is absolute nonsense too. I was in Hong Kong in early January and actually returned to Ireland 2 days after the first cases became known worldwide. Looking back, how in any way could I possibly have been considered a risk, an eejit, or a gobsh*te?

wakka12

wotzgoingon wrote: »

I wasn't following up on this but when did so many die. Last time I checked 6 died.

Yes it all happened very fast. Just 3 weeks ago 90% of deaths were in China, now 90% are outside China

Strazdas

gozunda wrote: »

Incorrect and wrong.

We are not part of Schengen.

Exceptional measures as required. See Germsny closing its borders for details.

But sure little ol' Ireland only does what's its told by the same ...

'Freedom of movement' has nothing to do with travel or borders. It refers to the right to work or study in another member state - absolutely nothing to do with the right to visit / go on holiday to / stay for a few weeks in another country.

fritzelly

kilkenny31 wrote: »

They're might be some truth in it tho. If you look at the past few days the numbers have been falling and if you look say at Australia who are in the middle of their summer the rate of spread is quiet low. Also Italy the spread was far worse i the cooler damper north of Italy. I know the theory isn't solid but maybe as we come into the spring summer months the figures may drop.

Plenty of cases in Southern Spain and it would be warm with plenty of sunshine
It may well be like flu in it's seasonality but it is it's perseverance on surfaces compared to plain old flu. Coronavirus is being found on surfaces weeks later

Roger_007

STB. wrote: »

You might want to check the temperatures where it is rampant right now.

I think you missed the point I was making that if everyone stays indoors we may not see the ‘sunshine’ effect.

V8 Interceptor

murpho999 wrote: »

Because there's questions of timings and looking at the data and how numbers are going.

I'm sure he knows more about it than you.

Think for yourself man.

murpho999 wrote: »

There's no way any country was going to stop flights in February. None. Italy's first death was on February 21st.How could you expect Ireland or any other country to ban flights and close borders at that stage? Why would the professor you quote call for it then either.

If the Professor was doing his job he would. Why call for it now?

As soon as the outbreak became apparent in Italy, all flights inbound (save Irish citizens returning and to be self isolated) should've been cancelled. I said it the day I seen it. The fact that you're saying nobody would've done it isn't an argument. Actually it is, a very bad one. That is precisely the way you contain a disease such as this. You shouldn't need an 'expert' to tell you that.

murpho999 wrote: »

The spread that happened was not as predictable as you make out and nobody back then not even you could predict it with any certainty.

Wasn't predictable? It was highly predictable! It had been seen in China and Iran. The commentary was in the media all the time. It was certain to spread like wildfire.

JP Liz V1

I am worried about the back log in tests even for at risk and health care workers also the lost swabs / lost tests

cnocbui

Strazdas wrote: »

A potentially encouraging piece of research from University College London :

The coronavirus outbreak could be stifled by warm English May weather, a new study from UCL has indicated.

Researchers found that infections from three common coronaviruses followed a seasonal pattern in England, with large numbers occurring during winter and at roughly the same time as influenza.

Cases peaked in February but only small amounts of the virus were transmitted in the summer months, with infections dropping rapidly from May and not ramping up again until the end of the year.

It's moisture, not heat limited. Heat has an effect only where it can dry up droplets, at which point the virus is rendered inactive. Places with high humidity will probably still see a problem with surface contamination. Person to person transmission is the main infection path and this wouldn't be hindered much in an English/Irish summer.

gozunda

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

Sorry but this is absolute nonsense too. I was in Hong Kong in early January and actually returned to Ireland 2 days after the first cases became known worldwide. Looking back, how in any way could I possibly have been considered a risk, an eejit, or a gobsh*te?

You are correct - your comment is absolute nonsense

So the above was about you only yeah?

And because 'you' personally travelled - absolutely no restrictions could be put in place once it was abundantly clear this was spreading globally?

Btw out if interest - did you think of the risk to others deciding to fly back or did that not occur to you?

fritzelly

murpho999 wrote: »

I really think it's a myth.

It's not summer in Australia for one thing.

Also, how come the virus survives inside the body with temperature of 37 degrees?

It cannot survive long outside a host at high temperatures as it cannot replicate, heat and UV are it's enemy then - if there are host cells then it is quite happy

V8 Interceptor

STB. wrote: »

The fact that we are an island, we had ample opportunities to close off on essential traffic in and out.

The next month is going to be very difficult.

Indeed. Coveney and Harris will have a lot of answering to do.

JP Liz V1

wotzgoingon wrote: »

I wasn't following up on this but when did so many die. Last time I checked 6 died.

I could be wrong but I think many are from nursing care homes clusters are rampant in them now

davedanon

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think you missed the point I was making that if everyone stays indoors we may not see the ‘sunshine’ effect.

But if we stay indoors, we won't need the 'sunshine effect'.

wakka12

kilkenny31 wrote: »

They're might be some truth in it tho. If you look at the past few days the numbers have been falling and if you look say at Australia who are in the middle of their summer the rate of spread is quiet low. Also Italy the spread was far worse i the cooler damper north of Italy. I know the theory isn't solid but maybe as we come into the spring summer months the figures may drop.

Australia is not in summer, it is heading into winter. Having said that, it would add to the argument, Australian cases have grown massively since March began as the weather cooled.

Overall I dont think the evidence is very strong though, cases in Europe accelerated greatly when the weather warmed up a lot, and growth in europe was overall very slow when the weather was cold, but maybe that is just coincidental timing. Who knows, maybe things would be even worse now if the weatehr was cold right now though

Quantum Erasure

...returned to Ireland 2 days after the first cases became known

gozunda wrote: »

Btw out if interest - did you think of the risk to others deciding to fly back or did that not occur to you?

i mean, come on

Strazdas

fritzelly wrote: »

Plenty of cases in Southern Spain and it would be warm with plenty of sunshine
It may well be like flu in it's seasonality but it is it's perseverance on surfaces compared to plain old flu. Coronavirus is being found on surfaces weeks later

I would say there is a big difference between contracting the virus in Scotland and Ecuador. If the London study is correct, the massive change in temperature and sunlight between winter and summer in Scotland would be far likely to impact on the virus.

Saying 'Covid-19 is found in hot and sunny countries' would be completely missing the point of their research.

Mervyn Skidmore

gozunda wrote: »

You are correct - your comment is absolute nonsense

So my comment was about you only?

And because 'you' personally travelled - absolutely no restrictions could be put in place once it was clear this was spreading globally?

Btw - did you think of the risk to others deciding to fly back or did that not occur to you?

Are you for real? I travelled to Asia in early December to see some of my family. When I flew back there was a mention online of a mystery illness in Wuhan. That was it, no real information, just that there was an illness in Wuhan that was new and seemed to be causing problems. I was in Hong Kong, probably a thousand miles away ready to board a flight home.

wakka12

Strazdas wrote: »

I would say there is a big difference between contracting the virus in Scotland and Ecuador. If the London study is correct, the massive change in temperature and sunlight between winter and summer in Scotland would be far likely to impact on the virus.

Saying 'Covid-19 is found in hot and sunny countries' would be completely missing the point of their research.

What is the difference, I dont get what you mean

easypazz

gozunda wrote: »

If we had acted early enough - we wouldnt had even more of our own homegrown eejits jetting off on holiday simply because they could.

And even quarentining the returning gob****es who had decided to head off in the midst of a global epidemic

But sure we weren't allowed to close boarders according to our EU masters - even whilst they were closing theirs off

You couldnt making it up tbh ...

Rubbish.

20000 people were in Spain when things went off. I will take a stab that 100000 people were out of the country that week. And same the week before.

You cant just fold Aer Lingus and Ryanair every time something might happen.

4 weeks ago the only thing in the news was flooding along the Shannon and constant storms.

STB.

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think you missed the point I was making that if everyone stays indoors we may not see the ‘sunshine’ effect.

The Vitamin D effect Roger ? People get colds in the summer. But this is not a cold. This is a pandemic that is quite contagious and has made itself across several continents successfully. Not all the climates are cold that it has ravaged.

I'm more concerned about the spreading effect myself ?

fritzelly

Strazdas wrote: »

I would say there is a big difference between contracting the virus in Scotland and Ecuador. If the London study is correct, the massive change in temperature and sunlight between winter and summer in Scotland would be far likely to impact on the virus.

Saying 'Covid-19 is found in hot and sunny countries' would be completely missing the point of their research.

Winter would have no effect on the virus - I've never known that great summers in Scotland...
Link to the study?

gozunda

Strazdas wrote: »

'Freedom of movement' has nothing to do with travel or borders. It refers to the right to work or study in another member state - absolutely nothing to do with the right to visit / go on holiday to / stay for a few weeks in another country.

Which bit confused you?

Did the comment detail any of that?

Nothing to do with limiting travel to and from areas for the reasons of curtailing the spread of infection or disease

And no that does not mean people would have been left stranded. They could have been repatriated and quarantined. However action would certainly would have helped mitigate the first cluster of cases which hit Ireland.

But sure let's all stick our heads in the sand- its nicer down there ...

lillycakes2

Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS, Foot and Mouth, MERS,Nipah, etc all came and disappeared………...would it be fair to say this one will follow similar pattern ??

Quantum Erasure

fritzelly wrote: »

Link to the study?

www.google.ie

gozunda

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

Are you for real? I travelled to Asia in early December to see some of my family. When I flew back there was a mention online of a mystery illness in Wuhan. That was it, no real information, just that there was an illness in Wuhan that was new and seemed to be causing problems. I was in Hong Kong, probably a thousand miles away ready to board a flight home.

You brought your own irrelevant travel history up. The question was rhetorical

Your personal travel history has evidently got nothing do with those deciding to go off on holiday when it was clear that the disease was spreading

It certainly has nothing to do with limiting flights from areas where infection was rampant or restricting the same eejits who went off on holidays because they could ...

Strazdas

fritzelly wrote: »

Winter would have no effect on the virus - I've never known that great summers in Scotland...
Link to the study?

It's not the temperature or sunlight that would ward off the virus but rather how the host person reacts to the changes in temperature and sunlight (a massive boost to their immune system).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/warm-may-weather-could-suppress-uks-coronavirus-outbreak-study/

kilkenny31

lillycakes2 wrote: »

Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS, Foot and Mouth, MERS,Nipah, etc all came and disappeared………...would it be fair to say this one will follow similar pattern ??

I hope so. Other corona virus seem to be pretty weak. Theres a good chance that this thing will disappear over the next few weeks just like SARS did.

wakka12

lillycakes2 wrote: »

Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS, Foot and Mouth, MERS,Nipah, etc all came and disappeared………...would it be fair to say this one will follow similar pattern ??

Swine flu did not disappear, it is an endemic global influenza now.
The ebola outbreak is still ongoing
SARS was stopped because of massive containment efforts

Coronavirus looks unlikely to 'disappear' naturally because of how contagious it is but apparently CHina managed so who knows

STB.

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Indeed. Coveney and Harris will have a lot of answering to do.

Do you know what we were doing this time 19 years ago ?

We were running a major security operation along the border and at ports to prevent the spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

We couldn't do the same for the human beings, having been given ample warning..

davedanon

Strazdas wrote: »

It's not the temperature or sunlight that would ward off the virus but rather how the host person reacts to the changes in temperature and sunlight (a massive boost to their immune system).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/warm-may-weather-could-suppress-uks-coronavirus-outbreak-study/

Ehhh, you do know we live in Ireland. I wouldn't be pinning my hopes on being saved by sunlight.

fritzelly

lillycakes2 wrote: »

Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS, Foot and Mouth, MERS,Nipah, etc all came and disappeared………...would it be fair to say this one will follow similar pattern ??

Ebola, Sars, Nipah, Mers - all have high fatality rates - you barely get a chance to spread it to other people

The other 2 you can work out for yourself

Sofiztikated

STB. wrote: »

Do you know what we were doing this time 19 years ago ?

We were running a major security operation along the border and at ports to prevent the spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

We couldn't do the same for the human beings, having been given ample warning..

We were also terminating and burning 10's of thousands of livestock.

bb12

threeball wrote: »

It only takes a handful of nutters to spread this sh1t like wildfire or perhaps you haven't being paying attention. It's proven that centres like churches were at the root of problems for Spain and France but of course the USA is different.

saw a bbc report from russia the other day where it was shown people still packing into the churches there...the reporter interviewed some women outside and they said you couldn't catch corona in a church...god wouldn't allow it....one of these women was a doctor.

Mervyn Skidmore

gozunda wrote: »

You brought your own irrelevant travel history up. The question was rhetorical

Your personal travel history has evidently got nothing do with those deciding to go off on holiday when it was clear that the disease was spreading

It certainly has nothing to do with limiting flights from areas where infection was rampant or restricting the same eejits who went off on holidays because they could ...

My personal travel history is anecdotal evidence of how people might have travelled without knowing the full extent of the disease. My point is that there could have been an Irish person in Wuhan from day one of the outbreak that returned on day two. We just don't know, and there would have been no way of preventing that person from returning. This "close the border" thing is a nonsense in my mind. We have over 150 countries infected, the virus is in the community already. Yes, restrict those who enter but it's here and we have to try to manage it as best as possible.

fritzelly

Strazdas wrote: »

It's not the temperature or sunlight that would ward off the virus but rather how the host person reacts to the changes in temperature and sunlight (a massive boost to their immune system).

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/warm-may-weather-could-suppress-uks-coronavirus-outbreak-study/

Alas it is based on other coronaviruses and making assumptions that this virus is the same.

Only time will tell if that is the case or ...

If I had a dollar for every non peer reviewed paper on Coronavirus I would be a trillionaire

Strazdas

davedanon wrote: »

Ehhh, you do know we live in Ireland. I wouldn't be pinning my hopes on being saved by sunlight.

A 'seasonal' flu is entirely dependent on there being seasons.

The London researchers think CV-19 may follow the pattern of other corona viruses (let's hope they're right).

gozunda

easypazz wrote: »

Rubbish.

20000 people were in Spain when things went off. I will take a stab that 100000 people were out of the country that week. And same the week before.

You cant just fold Aer Lingus and Ryanair every time something might happen.

4 weeks ago the only thing in the news was flooding along the Shannon and constant storms.

In late January - It was all over the news. And again limiting flights from those areas which caused the first clusters here does not mean that travel restrictions plus repatriation and quarantine could not have been implemented for those areas going forward. Is that concept really too difficult?

I'm amazed at the incredible black and white thinking that goes with this issue - it's like the world and everything in it is suddenly monochrome for some ...

STB.

Sofiztikated wrote: »

We were also terminating and burning 10's of thousands of livestock.

And your point is what exactly?

Your response will underpin mine I am sure.

wakka12

fritzelly wrote: »

Alas it is based on other coronaviruses and making assumptions that this virus is the same.

Only time will tell if that is the case or ...

If I had a dollar for every non peer reviewed paper on Coronavirus I would be a trillionaire

Yes, it is no guarantee at all. MERS is also a coronavirus and thrives in the hottest temperatures on earth

Strazdas

fritzelly wrote: »

Alas it is based on other coronaviruses and making assumptions that this virus is the same.

Only time will tell if that is the case or ...

If I had a dollar for every non peer reviewed paper on Coronavirus I would be a trillionaire

Indeed. There's so much about Covid we don't actually know - we'll know a lot more in six month's time.

But the fact that it exists in hot countries tells us nothing so far : we need to see how it performs in a country with changing seasons.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112999911&postcount=707

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Its at times like this I wish I had a PHD...

Infectious disease expert says Government should consider closing Irish borders

Dr Paddy Mallon, professor of microbial diseases at UCD and consultant at St Vincent’s Hospital in Dublin acknowledged that community transmission of COVID-19 in Ireland presents a significant problem, but identified the risk of imported infections as a major threat.
...

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113006778&postcount=1996

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Its at times like this I wish I had a PHD...

Infectious disease expert says Government should consider closing Irish borders

Dr Paddy Mallon, professor of microbial diseases at UCD and consultant at St Vincent’s Hospital in Dublin acknowledged that community transmission of COVID-19 in Ireland presents a significant problem, but identified the risk of imported infections as a major threat.
...

Are there any other times you'd like to include for wishing V8 ?

dsmythy

lillycakes2 wrote: »

Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS, Foot and Mouth, MERS,Nipah, etc all came and disappeared………...would it be fair to say this one will follow similar pattern ??

You'll find that swine flu strain in flu vaccines as it still does the rounds most winters. MERS still exists too but it's not a great spreader. So it might stick around but as something less serious and widespread.

JP Liz V1

wakka12 wrote: »

Swine flu did not disappear, it is an endemic global influenza now.
The ebola outbreak is still ongoing
SARS was stopped because of massive containment efforts

Coronavirus looks unlikely to 'disappear' naturally because of how contagious it is but apparently CHina managed so who knows

China still has cases and deaths (yes smaller, decreasing) but their 1st case was last November

gozunda

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

My personal travel history is anecdotal evidence of how people might have travelled without knowing the full extent of the disease. My point is that there could have been an Irish person in Wuhan from day one of the outbreak that returned on day two. We just don't know, and there would have been no way of preventing that person from returning. This "close the border" thing is a nonsense in my mind. We have over 150 countries infected, the virus is in the community already. Yes, restrict those who enter but it's here and we have to try to manage it as best as possible.

So because one imaginary person 'might' have returned from Wuhan - means we could not have limited travel and set up quarantine from say Italy - once knew there was a serious risk of the disease returning here? Ie exactly what happened with the first clusters

Nope. Doesn't wash ....

solidasarock

lillycakes2 wrote: »

Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS, Foot and Mouth, MERS, etc all came and disappeared………...would it be fair to say this one will follow similar pattern ??

None of those spread as far and wide as Covid-19. Its a completely different scenario.

Look up the total cases of Ebola or SARS some time. Those where small compared to what is happening now.

Something like Ebola is way more easier to contain. It was way more lethal and attacks the host much more quickly and as a result never gets a chance to spread.

Covid-19 can take a week or more to effect a host but that host can still be spreading during that time without knowing. Its less lethal but can spread to way more people and kill way more as a result.