CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

kilkenny31

gozunda wrote: »

So because one imaginary person 'might' have returned from Wuhan - means we could not have limited travel and set up quarantine from say Italy - once knew there was a serious risk of the disease returning here? Ie exactly what happened...

Nope. Doesn't wash ....

Totally agree. The fact that there was Irish people who came back from Wuhan placed in quarantine in England for two weeks before returning to Ireland suggests that the same should have been done for people returning from Italy when it got serious here. There can be no argument.

Mervyn Skidmore

gozunda wrote: »

So ecause one imaginary person 'might' have returned from Wuhan - means we could not have limited travel and set up quarantine
from say Italy once knew there was a serious risk of the disease returning here? Ie exactly what happened...

Nope. Doesn't wash ....

But you asked me whether I considered the risk travelling back to Ireland from Hong Kong mere days after the first cases were revealed, therefore you clearly understand my point. I "might" have had the virus, who knows. Due to the way the world is now and the delayed onset of symptoms or lack of symptoms at all, this virus was travelling worldwide from day one unknown.

fineso.mom

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Its at times like this I wish I had a PHD...


Infectious disease expert says Government should consider closing Irish borders

Dr Paddy Mallon, professor of microbial diseases at UCD and consultant at St Vincent’s Hospital in Dublin acknowledged that community transmission of COVID-19 in Ireland presents a significant problem, but identified the risk of imported infections as a major threat.

"We should be looking seriously over the next week at protecting our borders and stopping new infections coming in because it will give us the ability to control the infections that we have."

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/infectious-disease-expert-says-government-should-consider-closing-irish-borders/ar-BB11U6Cd?ocid=spartanntp

That doctor was on the radio today and the interviewer asked him about his 'statement' about closing the borders. He corrected her and said he had not used that term, that he had said 'protecting' our borders. He then went on to explain what that meant and it was not at all as extreme as closing borders.

Bit cynical

signostic wrote: »

Over 5000 cases in Florida and the temp today is 25 degress C.

However huge numbers of New Yorkers traveled down to Florida in recent weeks.

wakka12

Bit cynical wrote: »

However huge numbers of New Yorkers traveled down to Florida in recent weeks.

Yeh but several other tropical and hot places are experiecing fast and large increases in recent days, Indonesia, Phillippines, Malaysia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Ecaudor

tuxy

wakka12 wrote: »

Yeh but several other tropical and hot places are experiecing fast and large increases in recent days, Indonesia, Phillippines, Malaysia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Ecaudor

Yes and can you imagine what it would be like in those places if the temperature was lower? :eek:

wakka12

https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/111286/Deutsche-Krankenhaeuser-nehmen-COVID-19-Patienten-aus-Italien-und-Frankreich-auf
Germany takes in almost 200 ICU patients from Spain , France and Italy. Good neighbours !

JP Liz V1

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/111286/Deutsche-Krankenhaeuser-nehmen-COVID-19-Patienten-aus-Italien-und-Frankreich-auf
Germany takes in almost 200 ICU patients from Spain , France and Italy. Good neighbours !

What's Germany's own numbers like now that they can import ICU patients?

tuxy

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What's Germany's own numbers like now that they can import ICU patients?

Very low percentage of serious and fatal cases. This has been a mystery for some time now as they try to figure out what Germany did that allowed so many to be infected but so few to become critical.

Turtwig

tuxy wrote: »

Very low percentage of serious and fatal cases. This has been a mystery for some time now as they try to figure out what Germany did that allowed so many to be infected but so few to become critical.

Record the deaths differently.

makeandcreate

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

My personal travel history is anecdotal evidence of how people might have travelled without knowing the full extent of the disease. My point is that there could have been an Irish person in Wuhan from day one of the outbreak that returned on day two. We just don't know, and there would have been no way of preventing that person from returning. This "close the border" thing is a nonsense in my mind. We have over 150 countries infected, the virus is in the community already. Yes, restrict those who enter but it's here and we have to try to manage it as best as possible.

Exactly. We had loads of school kids on ski trips in Northern Italy for weeks before the "official" outbreak in Italy - looking back, the virus was surely already active. My daughters school arrived back from Lombardy Feb 16 - no testing, restrictions or isolation was done.
Funny thing - the kids where due to have an end of holiday disco but it was cancelled at the last minute and I only thought of this today, I spoke to my daughter that night and she said they had been confined and left in their rooms - I wanted to speak to one of her teachers about collecting her from the airport but she said they were left in the rooms until 1am then light outs. I now wonder where the teachers concerned about them mixing together?

tuxy

Turtwig wrote: »

Record the deaths differently.

Does that free up enough ICU space that they can take patients for another country?
Maybe recording it like that is the part of the solution to dealing with this better.

Brian Lighthouse

From the Deutsche Welle News channel, some theories on how Germany are handling it.
https://youtu.be/2a5GjVpfy8g

Kermit.de.frog

It has been low but daily new deaths are increasing. 104 yesterday. Lag effect.

Four Spring Duck Technique

Gynoid

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/culture/madonna-delivers-coronavirus-message-while-naked-in-the-bathtub-1.4209840%3fmode=amp

Oh shoot! You guys! You have let me down. I totally missed Madonna's melancholic covid musings from her rose petal strewn luxury bath about how this is the Great Equaliser.

Phew. I am all caught up now. Video at link.

otnomart

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

My personal travel history is anecdotal evidence of how people might have travelled without knowing the full extent of the disease. My point is that there could have been an Irish person in Wuhan from day one of the outbreak that returned on day two. We just don't know, and there would have been no way of preventing that person from returning. This "close the border" thing is a nonsense in my mind. We have over 150 countries infected, the virus is in the community already. Yes, restrict those who enter but it's here and we have to try to manage it as best as possible.

Agree with you.
From the New York Times; How the Virus Got Out
"… and over 15,000 people went to Bangkok, the most popular destination."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage


As an example: Italy stopped all flights to/from China on 31 January, and immediately started checking temperatures at Arrivals from all other International flights, to catch anyone with a fever coming indirectly via London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris.
Still, the virus arrived to Italy (via Germany).


Now if you look at the samples sequences from the first cases in Ireland,
in Nextstrain,

-a Dublin one was originated via the Netherlands and/or Bavaria (via Italy)
-one from Limerick was originated via England and/or the Netherlands
-another one from Limerick is 100% from the Netherlands
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland

dougm1970

this makeshift hospital in central park in new york, made up of tents...how strong are those ?..weatherproof-wise ..wind etc ?...how are they heated ?....if the ground is wet outside and gets muddy with all the foot traffic from staff, how do they keep inside of tents clean ?

otnomart

makeandcreate wrote: »

My daughters school arrived back from Lombardy Feb 16 - no testing, restrictions or isolation was done.

On 16 February, it was still wrongly assumed that the outbreak in Germany had been fully contained and that the virus was not circulating in Europe.
A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on 24 January 2020. Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on 20 and 21 January.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...d-mnX3d9F_WRzM
But there was a case in La Gomera, Canaries Islands detected on 31 January - imported from Germany
https://de.euronews.com/2020/02/02/infizierter-deutscher-auf-la-gomera-wohlauf
Then we have the first recorded death in Europe, in Valencia on 13 February - but again that was diagnosed as preumonia and discovered only in early March.
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-...ronavirus.html

DOCARCH

US now has more than double the confirmed cases China had, and, more deaths now in the US than 9/11.

Noted Trump has been a little quieter/more serious (realistic) in the last 24 hours!

tigger123

Curve is beginning to move in a positive direction, as per the headline on this morning's Irish Times.

It all seems to be worth the effort!

Talisman

otnomart wrote: »

Agree with you.
From the New York Times; How the Virus Got Out
"… and over 15,000 people went to Bangkok, the most popular destination."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage


As an example: Italy stopped all flights to/from China on 31 January, and immediately started checking temperatures at Arrivals from all other International flights, to catch anyone with a fever coming indirectly via London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris.
Still, the virus arrived to Italy (via Germany).


Now if you look at the samples sequences from the first cases in Ireland,
in Nextstrain,

-a Dublin one was originated via the Netherlands and/or Bavaria (via Italy)
-one from Limerick was originated via England and/or the Netherlands
-another one from Limerick is 100% from the Netherlands
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland

The data on the Nextstrain website is enlightening and exposes the gaps in the idea that stopping flights from Italy would have achieved the intended outcome.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland&l=radial

I find the radial presentation the best for seeing what you're looking at. From the data there is a 100% confidence that it was in the UK during the period January 17 - 27. You see this by looking at the leg that heads towards 10/11 if you visualise the radial graph as a clock.

gozunda

Talisman wrote: »

The data on the Nextstrain website is enlightening and exposes the gaps in the idea that stopping flights from Italy would have achieved the intended outcome.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland&l=radial

I find the radial presentation the best for seeing what you're looking at. From the data there is a 100% confidence that it was in the UK during the period January 17 - 27. You see this by looking at the leg that heads towards 10/11 if you visualise the radial graph as a clock.

All lovely pictures for sure ..

It remains shuting down flights from known areas of infection would have limited transmission of the significant number of clusters here brought back from those travelling to and from Northern Italy. And yes people could still have been repatriated and quarantined.

As to which particular clade each strain of the virus belongs to. No doubt there were people from London / UK etc holidaying in those same hotspots in Northern Italy.

Restrictions on flights would certainly have helped here ...

YFlyer

tigger123 wrote: »

Curve is beginning to move in a positive direction, as per the headline on this morning's Irish Times.

It all seems to be worth the effort!

It is moving clockwise. This be negative direction.

leavingirl

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

Flippyfloppy

tigger123 wrote: »

Curve is beginning to move in a positive direction, as per the headline on this morning's Irish Times.

It all seems to be worth the effort!

They are seriously behind on test results, a lot of people are waiting upwards of a week. That could explain our wonderful looking curve!

Quantum Erasure

gozunda wrote: »

All lovely pictures for sure ..

It remains shuting down flights from known areas of infection would have limited transmission of the significant number of clusters here brought back from those travelling to and from Northern Italy....

isn't the point to flatten the curve so that our hospitals aren't overwhelmed?

I don't think we're near that point, or on track to reach that point at all.

this isn't like SARS where you have a big outbreak in a couple of countries and then it burns itself out. It's going to affect the majority of the population one way or the other, and we're doing a good job of limiting the speed at which it transmits, so...

DOCARCH

Flippyfloppy wrote: »

That could explain our wonderful looking curve!

Agreed. Ireland is doing a lot of testing, but does not appear to be processing those tests very well. Tests are not much good without results!

Fergal Bowers said on Morning Ireland, what needs to be focused on, to give a true idea, is hospital admissions and ICU numbers (rather than test results and numbers of cases).

Fr_Dougal

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

I would not trust a study based on Chinese numbers.

YFlyer

Could be an increase of travel restrictions.

Gynoid

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

First time I have read the journal, is there a cure?

Is the "truth" you are welcoming the 45% of cases hospitalised are over 65?
You do know that means 55% of cases hospitalisèd are thus under 65, right?
And hopefully most people know that 65 is not all that old at all.
Hospitalised may not mean death, but for some it may mean lung tissue scarring and life limiting consequences.
Sorry, what was the truth slowly emerging again?

Vivienne23

DOCARCH wrote: »

Agreed. Ireland is doing a lot of testing, but does not appear to be processing those tests very well. Tests are not much good without results!

Fergal Bowers said on Morning Ireland, what needs to be focused on, to give a true idea, is hospital admissions and ICU numbers (rather than test results and numbers of cases).

What were the ICU numbers for yesterday ? We’re they released ?

Talisman

gozunda wrote: »

All lovely pictures for sure ..

It remains shuting down flights from known areas of infection would have limited transmission of the significant number of clusters here brought back from those travelling to and from Northern Italy. And yes people could still have been repatriated and quarantined.

As to which particular clade each strain of the virus belongs to. No doubt there were people from London / UK etc holidaying in those same hotspots in Northern Italy.

Restrictions on flights would certainly have helped here ...

My point in highlighting that mutation is that it pre-dates the first case that was identified in Europe.

There are also mutations in the Netherlands that came via the UK and not directly from China.

leavingirl

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

Phew, open up the restrictions immediately. At 1.38% Death rate only 27,000 people will die if 2 million catch this. That has really eased my fears

leavingirl

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I would not trust a study based on Chinese numbers.

Cognitive dissonance. Expect an internet blackout soon. The pandemic narrative being pushed by the Covid crew is leaking badly.

Roger_007

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

I was surprised that the number of over 80s requiring hospitalisation was less than 20% of those infected. I would have thought that it would be higher. I was under the impression that the majority of over 80s who got Covid would have to be hospitalised.

DOCARCH

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

Not sure there is anything new in that? Experts have been suggesting that death rate for sometime now.

JPCN1

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1244730196038647809?s=20

What a vile creature.

gozunda

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

isn't the point to flatten the curve so that our hospitals aren't overwhelmed?

I don't think we're near that point, or on track to reach that point at all.

this isn't like SARS where you have a big outbreak in a couple of countries and then it burns itself out. It's going to affect the majority of the population one way or the other, and we're doing a good job of limiting the speed at which it transmits, so...

Replied to the wrong comment? No worries ...

leavingirl

leavingirl wrote: »

Cognitive dissonance. Expect an internet blackout soon. The pandemic narrative being pushed by the Covid crew is leaking badly.

If you believe the pandemic figures are overblown, back it up with facts. An article stating that the death rate from Covid19 is 14 times that of flu does not back up your argument by the way

gozunda

Talisman wrote: »

My point in highlighting that mutation is that it pre-dates the first case that was identified in Europe.

There are also mutations in the Netherlands that came via the UK and not directly from China.

Didnt say they didnt btw. It remains restrictions on known hotspots would have helped limit clusters here.

Amazing how some are so resistant to any possible proactive management. And that's why we here with this pandemic. Odd that the WHO were screaming so vehemently that Chinese flights not to be restricted then - all the while China completely locked its own hotspots down and is closing down flights from countries now infected. We will never learn apparently ...

Gynoid

leavingirl wrote: »

Cognitive dissonance. Expect an internet blackout soon. The pandemic narrative being pushed by the Covid crew is leaking badly.

Will you be back soon to comment when there is no internet blackout?
I get so tired bringing in and out the tomato plants and shaving my family...

Gods Gift

Servant who walks royal dogs falls ill.

If Lizzie or Philip get this they would be fooked.
And they wouldn’t be allowed a fancy funeral.

cloudatlas

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Totally agree. The fact that there was Irish people who came back from Wuhan placed in quarantine in England for two weeks before returning to Ireland suggests that the same should have been done for people returning from Italy when it got serious here. There can be no argument.

Nobody did that it took hold in Italy so fast. Everybody on the Internet has the solutions now. Close the borders, test, quarantine all new arrivals, lockdown the country immediately.

Be right back

JPCN1 wrote: »

What a vile creature.

I would like to know where he gets his information from. No other media outlets appears to have it. I hope that it isn't true.

is_that_so

A study on how the virus goes about its work. Thought this part was interesting.

The finding suggests that coronavirus particles that are inhaled through the nose or mouth have a high chance of attaching to cells in the upper respiratory tract, meaning that relatively few are needed for an infection to gain a foothold.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/new-study-sheds-light-on-coronavirus-infection-mechanism

h2005

leavingirl wrote: »

Cognitive dissonance. Expect an internet blackout soon. The pandemic narrative being pushed by the Covid crew is leaking badly.

Cognitive dissonance?? Who are the Covid crew and why in your considered opinion is this not a pandemic?

is_that_so

Be right back wrote: »

I would like to know where he gets his information from. No other media outlets appears to have it. I hope that it isn't true.

It's there if you go rummaging but very many of us, including the media, have enough human dignity and respect not to poke around in people's private grief.

is_that_so

leavingirl wrote: »

Cognitive dissonance. Expect an internet blackout soon. The pandemic narrative being pushed by the Covid crew is leaking badly.

Lining up a load of words in a line neither a sentence nor sense makes.

OscarMIlde

nocoverart wrote: »

No, from having genetically sh1tty hands that can’t put up with my extra washing of said hands.

Try sudocrem on the worst areas at night. It's the only thing that worked for me.