CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

flashforward

bennyl10 wrote: »

The farce has been exposed? Oh give over.

94% of people are testing negative, we are referring people with symptoms.

There is no other way to do This.

We’re a country of hypochondriacs.

We’re going to test the people who need it.
The actual number is irrelevant.

3235 active cases
~30200 tests completed

10.7% by very basic maths....

The rest of your post doesnt warrant a response

MrMusician18

Fann Linn wrote: »

People were swabbed because they were referred by their GPs who were following HSE guidelines.
They didn't just rock up to Croker off their own bat to get tested.

They were assessed over the phone. Telling your doctor you have a cough and a temperature was enough to get a test referral. There is a huge proportion of people in this country that are morons and hypochondriacs.

They are the ones that clog up the system.

GM228

Ireland Reported Coronavirus Statistics - Day 32 - Tuesday 31/03/2020

Today's Stats:-
Total accumulated cases: 3235
Daily case increase: 11.28%
Daily case confirmation increase/decrease: 10.17%
Mortality rate: 2.19%
*Recovery rate: 0.15%
Poplulation infected: 0.066%

Average daily cases change since day 1 (29/02/20): 32.82%
Average daily cases change last 10 days (since 22/03/20): 15.29%
Average daily cases change last 7 days (since 25/03/20): 13.60%
Average daily cases last 3 days (since 29/03/20): 10.24%

Average daily case confirmation since day 1 (29/02/20): 38.89%
Average daily case confirmation last 10 days (since 22/03/20): 15.80%
Average daily case confirmation last 7 days (since 25/03/20): 9.31%
Average daily case confirmation last 3 days (since 29/03/20): 8.57%


For comparrison, yesterday's day 1, 3 day, 7 day and 10 day averages:-

GM228 wrote: »

Average daily cases change since day 1 (29/02/20): 33.52%
Average daily cases change last 10 days (since 21/03/20): 15.67%
Average daily cases change last 7 days (since 24/03/20): 14.59%
Average daily cases last 3 days (since 28/03/20): 11.14%

Average daily case confirmation since day 1 (29/02/20): 39.81%
Average daily case confirmation last 10 days (since 21/03/20): 12.87%
Average daily case confirmation last 7 days (since 24/03/20): 6.88%
Average daily case confirmation last 3 days (since 28/03/20): 4.29%

DAY

|

DATE

|

Cases

|

New Cases

|

Total Cases

|

Case Increase

|

Daily Reporting Change

|

Deaths to date

|

Mortality Rate

|

Hospitalised

|

Hospital Rate

|

ICU

|

ICU Rate

|

*Recovered

|

Recovery Rate

|

Population %

|

**Current Active Cases

1|29/02/2020|0|1|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|1
2|01/03/2020|1|0|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|1
3|02/03/2020|1|0|1|0.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|1
4|03/03/2020|1|1|2|100.00%|0%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|2
5|04/03/2020|2|4|6|200.00%|300.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|6
6|05/03/2020|6|7|13|116.67%|75.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|13
7|06/03/2020|13|5|18|38.46%|-28.57%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|18
8|07/03/2020|18|1|19|5.56%|-80.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|19
9|08/03/2020|19|2|21|10.53%|100.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|21
10|09/03/2020|21|3|24|14.29%|50.00%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.000%|24
11|10/03/2020|24|10|34|41.67%|233.33%|0|N/A|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%|34
12|11/03/2020|34|9|43|26.47%|-10.00%|1|2.33%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%|42
13|12/03/2020|43|27|70|62.79%|200.00%|1|1.43%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.001%|69
14|13/03/2020|70|20|90|28.57%|-25.93%|1|1.11%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.002%|89
15|14/03/2020|90|39|129|43.33%|95.00%|2|1.55%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.003%|127
16|15/03/2020|129|40|169|31.01%|2.56%|2|1.18%|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|NR|0.003%|167
17|16/03/2020|169|54|223|31.95%|35.00%|2|0.90%|84|37.7%|6|2.69%|5|2.24%|0.005%|216
18|17/03/2020|223|69|292|30.94%|27.78%|2|0.68%|108|37%|7|2.40%|5|1.71%|0.006%|285
19|18/03/2020|292|74|366|25.34%|7.25%|2|0.55%|140|38.8%|12|3.28%%|5|1.37%|0.007%|359
20|19/03/2020|366|191|557|52.19%|158.11%|3|0.54%|173|31.1%|13|2.33%|5|0.9%|0.011%|549
21|20/03/2020|557|126|683|22.62%|-34.03%|3|0.44%|211|30.9%|17|2.49%|5|0.73%|0.014%|675
22|21/03/2020|683|102|785|14.93%|-19.05%|3|0.38%|239|30.4%|25|3.18%|5|0.64%|0.016%|777
23|22/03/2020|785|121|906|15.41%|18.63%|4|0.44%|277|30.6%|36|3.97%|5|0.64%|0.018%|897
24|23/03/2020|906|219|1125|24.17%|80.99%|6|0.53%|305|27.1%|39|3.47%|5|0.44%|0.023%|1114
25|24/03/2020|1129|204|1329|18.13%|-6.85%|7|0.53%|340|25.61|47|3.54%|5|0.38%|0.027%|1317
26|25/03/2020|1329|235|1564|17.68%|15.20%|9|0.58%|419|26.8%|59|3.77%|5|0.32%|0.032%|1550
27|26/03/2020|1564|255|1819|16.30%|8.51%|19|1.04%|489|26.9%|67|3.68%|5|0.27%|0.037%|1795
28|27/03/2020|1819|302|2121|16.60%|18.43%|22|1.04%|564|26.6%|77|3.63%|5|0.24%|0.043%|2094
29|28/03/2020|2121|294|2415|13.86%|-2.65%|36|1.49%|645|26.7%|84|3.48%|5|0.21%|0.049%|2374
30|29/03/2020|2415|200|2615|8.28%|-31.97%|46|1.76%|703|26.9%|84|3.21%|5|0.19%|0.053%|2564
31|30/03/2020|2615|295|2910|11.28%|47.50%|54|1.86%|NR|NR|103|3.54%|5|0.17%|0.059%|2851
32|31/03/2020|2910|325|3235|11.17%|10.17%|71|2.19%|NR|NR|NR|NR|5|0.17%|0.059%|3159

NR = Not Reported

Source: Department of Health and the Health Protection Surveillaence Centre.

*"Recovered" rates are not reported by the Department of Health in the above link, these figures are taken from the Worldmeters and Johns Hopkins websites which use data suplied by the DoT to the ECDC under the WHO Guidelines for reporting. Recovered statistics can only be published as "recovered" following two successful tests of being clear of the virus under the WHO reporting guidelines, as a result it is likely the recovered data is skewed.

** Due to the above issue with reporting of revovered cases the number of active cases is also likely skewed.

Day 20 - Thursday 19/03/20 Stats
Day 21 - Friday 20/03/20 Stats
Day 22 - Saturday 21/03/20 Stats
Day 23 - Sunday 22/03/20 Stats
Day 24 - Monday 23/03/20 Stats
Day 25 - Tuesday 24/03/20 Stats
Day 26 - Wednesday 25/03/20 Stats
Day 27 - Thursday 26/03/20 Stats
Day 28 - Friday 27/03/20 Stats
Day 29 - Saturday 28/03/20 Stats
Day 30 - Sunday 29/03/20 Stats
Day 31 - Monday 30/03/20 Stats

is_that_so

flashforward wrote: »

3235 active cases
~30200 tests completed

10.7% by very basic maths....

The rest of your post doesnt warrant a response

Until they changed the definition it was actually at 6%.

Quantum Erasure

spookwoman wrote: »

Breaking: 30,213 tests have been carried out to date.

Over the past week, the positivity rate for tests carried out has increased from 6% to 15%.

(NPHET says that was what they were trying to achieve by changing test guidelines.)
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1245062115083329536?s=20

Of today's 17 deaths: ...
They were 4 females and 13 males.
Their median age was 84.

any theories on why it seems to affect men more than women?

Nermal

The INMO were always great at counting patients on trolleys. Perhaps we could get them in to count who's in the ICU? The lack of clarity over such an important indicator is comical.

Cork Boy 53

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The journos are trawling through boards

I would think a good few have boards.ie accounts.

jimmycrackcorm

Naggdefy wrote: »

The standard of jogging is very poor though. Saw some pedestrian jogging. It's not beautiful jogging.

Walked to the shop and a guy passed by me jogging. But he was panting very heavily, doing his best to spread whatever he might have.

is_that_so

Fann Linn wrote: »

People were swabbed because they were referred by their GPs who were following HSE guidelines.
They didn't just rock up to Croker off their own bat to get tested.

Both De Gascun and Holohan have commented on people having other things and and they also mentioned a flu spike.

Fr_Dougal

Deleted User wrote: »

There was a 95% negative rate at one point

No point in wasting test kits either??

We need to get back up to testing +5k each day with the more stringent criteria.

If we keep this low level of testing we won’t have a clear picture of the real number of infections.

Duke of Url

fritzelly wrote: »

Nope, 26 are on ventilators, rest are in ICU beds

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1245061894978678784?s=20

Intensive care units are under significant pressure due to the growing number of #Covid19 cases. 107 patients are on ventilators and 26 patients with suspected coronavirus are in ICU beds.

bennyl10

flashforward wrote: »

3235 active cases
~30200 tests completed

10.7% by very basic maths....

The rest of your post doesnt warrant a response

Last week it was 94% negative

Now it is 90%

We are still well below what the expectation was, and we are looking quite good on a global level in terms of cases.

You can try and sound like Cosgrave all you want and sound from a high about a ‘farce’ and ‘conspiracy’

But fact doesn’t back it up at all.

Rob A. Bank

bennyl10 wrote: »

The farce has been exposed? Oh give over.

94% of people are testing negative, we are referring people with symptoms.

There is no other way to do This.

We’re a country of hypochondriacs.

We’re going to test the people who need it.
The actual number is irrelevant.

This is rubbish.

Dr Ryan of the World Health organization has said that testing should reveal between 3% and 15% positives.

If the percentage is more than 15% positive... you are not doing enough tests.

flashforward

bennyl10 wrote: »

Yes, and GPs were referring anyone with a cough.
Hence the really High negative rate


This way we’re far far more likely to get actually cases and not those who a bottle of Benilyn will do the job for!

If we are only able to process 1500 tests a day we are simply blind to what is happening.

The new criteria could(should) result in the expected positive rate of 30->50% this would still mean our cap for daily new cases is 750/day.

Unless we significantly increase the # of tests turned around/day we have no idea where we stand on any graph - flat or peaked

amadangomor

bennyl10 wrote: »

Last week it was 94% negative

Now it is 90%

We are still well below what the expectation was, and we are looking quite good on a global level in terms of cases.

You can try and sound like Cosgrave all you want and sound from a high about a ‘farce’ and ‘conspiracy’

But fact doesn’t back it up at all.

No we are at 15% now :rolleyes:

sudzs

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

any theories on why it seems to affect men more than women?

Women generally have better immune systems due pregnancies etc. Also there are some genes for the immune system that are on the X chromosome, of which women have 2 but men have one.

kilkenny31

Duke of Url wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1245061894978678784?s=20

Other way around. 107 are ventilated 26 others in ICU

DOCARCH

The fact there are now 71 deaths indicates there are (at least) 7,100 case in the country.

Heard virologist (from Queens in Belfast) the other day say that for every death there are a minimum of 100 cases (confirmed or unconfirmed).

Wailin

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

any theories on why it seems to affect men more than women?

Because health issues such as hypertension, lung disease, heart disease and stroke affect more men than women globally.

Sweet.Science

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The close contact news is good, at the start it was 20 then 5 and now on average 3 which is really within households.

The next 2 weeks are crucial for us

Why the next 2 weeks? Not until we get a vaccine ?

wadacrack

Some of the reporters need to think before they ask questions.Literally wasting time and just add nothing but tire the Health officials. Holohan now understandably not feeling well, as he has been too gracious to purely idiotic questions. Some good questions regarding testing at the start but after that it was embarrassing. Twitter rumors shouldn't come into it at all. Hopefully its noting only fatigue for Tony Holohan. Hes conducted himself admirably though out this.

sdanseo

Duke of Url wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1245061894978678784?s=20

Intensive care units are under significant pressure due to the growing number of #Covid19 cases. 107 patients are on ventilators and 26 patients with suspected coronavirus are in ICU beds.

So if I'm reading that right, there are only 26 COVID-19 related cases on ventilators? (107 being the total for all reasons).

That's an very low statistic if so. 0.81% of active cases needing ventilation thus far (total probably closer to 2.7%, however, if you assume the 59 who died in hospital all required one too)

Quantum Erasure

Nermal wrote: »

The INMO were always great at counting patients on trolleys. Perhaps we could get them in to count who's in the ICU? The lack of clarity over such an important indicator is comical.

we should get Paddy Cosgrave on the case...

Fann Linn

flashforward wrote: »

If we are only able to process 1500 tests a day we are simply blind to what is happening.

The new criteria could(should) result in the expected positive rate of 30->50% this would still mean our cap for daily new cases is 750/day.

Unless we significantly increase the # of tests turned around/day we have no idea where we stand on any graph - flat or peaked

Prof. Crown was saying earlier that we should actually be counting the numbers from swabbing to test complete to patient being told. That's the figure he would like to see.

fritzelly

Duke of Url wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1245061894978678784?s=20

Intensive care units are under significant pressure due to the growing number of #Covid19 cases. 107 patients are on ventilators and 26 patients with suspected coronavirus are in ICU beds.

OK wrong way round - still adds up to the same figure and not accumulative as some keep saying

YFlyer

Naggdefy wrote: »

The standard of jogging is very poor though. Saw some pedestrian jogging. It's not beautiful jogging.

They all can't glide like Bernard Lagat.

darced

So 325 cases out of 1500 odd tests?

Kermit.de.frog

Duke of Url wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1245061894978678784?s=20

Intensive care units are under significant pressure due to the growing number of #Covid19 cases. 107 patients are on ventilators and 26 patients with suspected coronavirus are in ICU beds.

Presumably those on ventilators are in ICU beds. Where else would they be?

screamer

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

any theories on why it seems to affect men more than women?

Ace receptors in lungs is one I’ve read.

New Home

twirlagig wrote: »

Off Topic sorry, but are there any Animal Welfare places that need fostering for a cat or preferably a small dog?
Based in East Galway. PM if so, don’t want to derail thread, thanks

Ask in the Animals & Pets forum.

is_that_so

Fann Linn wrote: »

Prof. Crown was saying earlier that we should actually be counting the numbers from swabbing to test complete to patient being told. That's the figure he would like to see.

I'm sure he would!

threeball

Cases finally falling in Italy but rocketing in the US. They're up at 17000 for the day with not all states reported. Thats almost one third of the entire reported global cases.

flashforward

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

We need to get back up to testing +5k each day with the more stringent criteria.

If we keep this low level of testing we won’t have a clear picture of the real number of infections.

To confirm they were never 'testing' 5000 per day.
They were Swabbing 5000 per day

On the 23rd march they were get results at a rate of 1350/day

We are now at 1500/day

People can bury their heads in the sand all they want but we have no clue where we are with this thing.

All this push to open new test 'swabbing' centres with no capacity to convert these to results.....

tuxy

What's more common in my area is people standing in one spot, usually in the way of people trying to walk.
Just looking around at random things in the hope of spotting something interesting. It looks so odd.

BLIZZARD7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Presumably those on ventilators are in ICU beds. Where else would they be?

This^ the other 26 are also in ICU but don't require ventilators yet (and hopefully won't). That was my reading of the figures anyway.

The other 107 are on ventilators and in ICU beds.

An Ciarraioch

Is 550 still the total number of ICU beds in the system?

Kermit.de.frog

threeball wrote: »

Cases finally falling in Italy

The rate of rise is falling back.

spookwoman

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

any theories on why it seems to affect men more than women?

It's known that women are more prone to autoimmune problems but are less prone to catching diseases. They think it might be something to do with the x chromosome.
https://tidsskriftet.no/en/2017/06/kronikk/why-are-autoimmune-diseases-more-prevalent-women

is_that_so

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Why the next 2 weeks? Not until we get a vaccine ?

If the rate drops quickly enough we can manage the level of infection so that the health system can cope.

Duke of Url

sdanseo wrote: »

So if I'm reading that right, there are only 26 COVID-19 related cases on ventilators? (107 being the total for all reasons).

That's an very low statistic if so. 0.81% of cases needing ventilation thus far, surely one of the lowest such figures on the planet.

No idea. I’m confused.

blackcard

One of the learnings from the 2010 big freeze was to have sufficient salt available for our roads and this hasn't been an issue since. Some of the learnings from the current crisis?
Sufficient ventilators?
Additional Test kits?
Sufficient reagents?
Sufficient masks and other personal protection equipment?
Additional measures for nursing homes?
Measures such as perspex glass in shops?
Hygiene education and practices?
Increased numbers of ICU's?
Increased capability to work from home?
Not to believe a fraction of what you read on social media?
Social distancing?
What else?

Reckless Abandonment

I'm very curious as to why they haven't been able to run more tests . They are firing money around like mad at the moment so it can't be that.

dummy_crusher

twirlagig wrote: »

Off Topic sorry, but are there any Animal Welfare places that need fostering for a cat or preferably a small dog?
Based in East Galway. PM if so, don’t want to derail thread, thanks

GSPCA and MADRA

martingriff

flashforward wrote: »

To confirm they were never 'testing' 5000 per day.
They were Swabbing 5000 per day

On the 23rd march they were get results at a rate of 1350/day

We are now at 1500/day

People can bury their heads in the sand all they want but we have no clue where we are with this thing.

All this push to open new test 'swabbing' centres with no capacity to convert these to results.....

Whats your point here?

They tested 5000 by swabbing people

fritzelly

sdanseo wrote: »

So if I'm reading that right, there are only 26 COVID-19 related cases on ventilators? (107 being the total for all reasons).

That's an very low statistic if so. 0.81% of active cases needing ventilation thus far (total probably closer to 2.7%, however, if you assume the 59 who died in hospital all required one too)

107+26 - both figures are for covid

SweetCaliber

Right folks that's a wrap for March's data. 3,235 Confirmed Cases and 71 Deaths leaving an estimated 3,164 Active Cases (No word on recoveries so not 100% accurate). 113 Required ICU as of 29th March.




I've updated my Spreadsheet and added a separate sheet for April.This will be viewable tomorrow via the original link. I'll keep March's data on the Charts to give an overall picture.

For Aprils data I've toned the estimated increases down to 15% per day as the last few have been in and around that. If you have a better percentage then please let me know. Overall if it continues at around 15% a day, we would be looking at close to 210,000 cases by the end of April. Hopefully this doesn't happen but its always important to see the long term outcome of the worst case scenario.



Again feedback on the percentage is welcome, you can view charts and spreadsheet here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IMavHMFAT59NaRmSJxfHIVxAhiT46CmzL0tj0Esqalc/

Fann Linn

is_that_so wrote: »

I'm sure he would!

Why the comments?
Isn't another educated voice an asset in all of this?

Jim_Hodge

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

113 of whom are in intensive care. Not a cumulative figure and stated clearly.

It is clearly a cumulative number if you read the report:


Total number of cases 2677
Total number hospitalised 703
Total number admitted to ICU 113
Total number of deaths 64
Total number of healthcare workers 674
Number clusters notified 118
Median age 47

Rob A. Bank

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Why the next 2 weeks? Not until we get a vaccine ?

The virus needs new people to infect, otherwise it dies.

If everyone stayed more than 2 meters away from one another for 2 weeks the virus would have nowhere to go, and the pandemic would stop dead.

We will not have a vaccine for 12 to 18 months so new antiviral meds or re-purposing known meds are the best short term hope for mitigating the outbreak.

elperello

Nermal wrote: »

The INMO were always great at counting patients on trolleys. Perhaps we could get them in to count who's in the ICU? The lack of clarity over such an important indicator is comical.

You probably know the reason for the trolley count.

You should know why the INMO are not counting who's in ICU.

Glad to see your sense of humour is holding up.