CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

fritzelly

RogerThis wrote: »

Stats per county not adding up to 2677

Every set of figures they have have unknowns

Xertz

The shortage of reagents is global and the Irish systems are trying to get their hands on supplies against serious global competition for the same resources.

UK: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/global-shortage-of-coronavirus-testing-kits-threatens-expansion-plan-chglmtm93
Canada: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/global-shortage-of-coronavirus-testing-kits-threatens-expansion-plan-chglmtm93 & https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-coronavirus-testing-analysis-1.5511909
USA: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-28/introducing-l-a-s-new-coronavirus-testing-czar-can-he-improve-our-grossly-inadequate-capacity-so-far

Belgium - KU Luven has a new technique requiring less reagent (reactif in French gets mistranslated sometimes) https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/103427/coronavirus-belgium-looks-to-increase-tests-by-10000-per-day-coronavirus-covid19/

We should probably be looking at ways of doing this with less reagent ... that KU Luven research might be useful if it can be implemented quickly.

SuperTortoise

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, if you're going to die from Covid-19, it is because your immune system overreacts and attacks your organs - primarily your lungs. Unless you have a preexisting condition that's exacerbated by Covid-19 and you die from that.

In those cases do they treat the patients with immune-suppressant drugs? And if so is it a case of those drugs just not working?

no.8

RugbyLad11 wrote:

I see lots of people celebrating and saying fantastic job by the Government because we didn't hit the 15,000 cases or 30% increase per day.

RugbyLad11 wrote:

Don't forget Leos unrealistic prediction of 15,000 cases by the end of the month.

I'd recommend looking at last night's video to get up to speed on that. It was based on modeling where no mitigation took place

Professor Moriarty

JoChervil wrote: »

Well, an article in The Lancet analysing 181 cases from Wuhan claimed it was connected with D-dimers and blood clothing

Are you saying that Covid-19 deaths are not primarily caused by the immune system attacking the lungs/organs and cytokine attacks?

Gynoid

Martina1991 wrote: »

They wouldn't have the reagents either which are now having supllier shortages.

Where does this reagent come from, do you know? Abroad? Is it expensive? Difficult to make?
Thanks.

martingriff

gabeeg wrote: »

Oh spare me the pious crap.

This has zero to do with out frontline staff.

No its you trying to get a swing as the politicians and the HSE I am just wondering why your not coming out and saying so instead of hiding behind IT'S NOT TESTS ITS SWABBING. Anyway I am finished with this time to go and do something fun and destress

Macdarack

gamerguy1 wrote: »

Italy has 100k cases and Spain 80k cases and seem to be slowing a little but will know in a few weeks if lockdown is working. Both countries have around 60 million, I wonder what's the true figure on the amount infected. We have 5 million and with our rate of cases we might reach their level in a few weeks which is frightening.

New cases in Italy has leveled and has started to drop a bit according to worldometre. Light down the end of the tunnel somewhere.

Witcher

no.8 wrote: »

I'd recommend looking at last night's video to get up to speed on that. It was based on modeling where no mitigation took place

Stop talking sense...it's Leo's fault don't ya know?

JoChervil

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Are you saying that Covid-19 deaths are not primarily caused by the immune system attacking the lungs/organs and cytokine attacks?

Yes, a quote from this article:
"The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage."

I don't see strong immune system here

OUTOFSYNC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What do you think a physicist, or a chemistry lab would have to offer? Specifics equipment and specific analysts are required. Maybe you could train a chemist familiar with NMR in PCR if you had the right equipment available, but it’s not as simple as sending samples to all the laps in the country

There are many many academic , private and even a few government DNA testing labs that would have the equipment needed to extract dna/ rna and identify the genetic code. It's a standard laboratory technique for a biologist. There are many biologists and biology labs in Ireland. The testing could be done 24 hours.

RogerThis

fritzelly wrote: »

Every set of figures they have have unknowns

How would they not know where the person has died?

yerwanthere123

weldoninhio wrote: »

The “ramping up of tests” etc was a PR exercise. The “we have plenty of PPE” was a PR exercise.
The bullshyte about getting to “15,000 tests a day” was a PR exercise.

All we are getting from Simple Simon and Varadkardashian is spin and PR bluster.

I think they're doing a good job, and I'm happy to have them at the helm. Our government, like most countries, have made mistakes in their initial approach, but since then I think they've been excellent. I think we've been one of the most proactive countries in the world even, and we've been miles ahead of bigger, powerful and more resourceful countries. I'd much rather be in Ireland under our government than a lot of others.

Quantum Erasure

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

watch Prime Time in about 20 mins

The only reliable numbers are those in the hse report ever evening. Anything was can’t be relied upon especially by the media who have been reporting these cumulative numbers as “in ICU today” regularly since day 1.

bekker

Talisman wrote: »

The figure is less than 50% for isolation units. You may not find exact numbers but the best place to look is the annual report for critical care capacity in the HSE.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/cspd/ncps/critical-care/critical-care-capacity-planning/national-adult-critical-care-capacity-census-2019-report.pdf

Thanks very much, makes for grim reading in light of our current situation.

It would seem to confirm the envisaged difficulty of physical separation for COVID-19 patients.

If CPAP is to be used to relieve strain on limited resources of ventilators in ICUs, it needs to be be done in an environment where seal leakage will not pose a transference problem and where all medical staff can work in fully comprehensive enclosed PPE.

Hopefully the plan is to use the newly activated centers for this purpose, but like everything else there is ^no^ real information available.

bodhrandude

bodhrandude wrote: »

Its illegal to evict someone at the moment.

Only tenants. Not lodgers or those renting a room in an owner occupied property.....they are not protected by the legislation

Spudmonkey

weldoninhio wrote: »

The “ramping up of tests” etc was a PR exercise. The “we have plenty of PPE” was a PR exercise.
The bullshyte about getting to “15,000 tests a day” was a PR exercise.

All we are getting from Simple Simon and Varadkardashian is spin and PR bluster.

Simple Simon? Varadkardashian? Did you come up with those all on your own? Pity to see there are such small minded individuals out there complaining about all and anything being done by the government! Why such experts spend their time sitting on their holes at home complaining rather than stepping up I really don't know.

gabeeg

martingriff wrote: »

No its you trying to get a swing as the politicians and the HSE I am just wondering why your not coming out and saying so instead of hiding behind IT'S NOT TESTS ITS SWABBING. Anyway I am finished with this time to go and do something fun and destress

Martin, I'm simply saying taking fluid from a human-being and storing it somewhere does not constitute a medical test.

There's not much politics in that sentence.

I'm starting to worry you've been taking the fluid out of me

bilston

gmisk wrote: »

So would everyone.... but we can't force Northern Ireland to implement the same policies at the same time as us (although there are meetings going on between ROI and the NI executive).
Northern Ireland have 28 the ROI have 71.
So NI disproportionately high to ROI.
NI testing very few for a long long time as well

NI 28/99 = 28.3% of deaths and makes up about 27.3% of the population of Ireland.

Saying Northern Ireland's deaths are disproportionately high may be factually correct, but it is so minimal it's not worthy of a mention.

The only certainty is that NI and the island as a whole are faring a lot better than England and Wales.

fritzelly

RogerThis wrote: »

How would they not know where the person has died?

Same way they have unknowns for the ages - maybe it's last minute data that hasn't been correlated yet

Tell me how

weldoninhio wrote: »

You don’t have to be smart to know Leo Varadkar is all fart, no poo. Everything is about his image and public perception to him. Didn’t he rehire his expensive PR man as soon as this crisis kicked off.

The bizarre thing about this post (aside from it being a subjective opinion) is that on some threads you wear a hat such as this and on more you wear one supporting Trump. How do you think Leo compares to the D in terms of concerns about public image?

bekker

Gynoid wrote: »

Where does this reagent come from, do you know? Abroad? Is it expensive? Difficult to make?
Thanks.

It's proprietary, in answer to question during tonight's briefing.

SuperTortoise

JoChervil wrote: »

Yes, a quote from this article:
"The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage."

I don't see strong immune system here

Can you post a link to that article, i would'nt mind reading it, thanks.

JoChervil

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Are you saying that Covid-19 deaths are not primarily caused by the immune system attacking the lungs/organs and cytokine attacks?

Also:
"Baseline lymphocyte count was significantly higher in survivors than non-survivors; in survivors, lymphocyte count was lowest on day 7 after illness onset and improved during hospitalisation, whereas severe lymphopenia was observed until death in non-survivors. "

So very weak immune systems were shown here

Martina1991

Gynoid wrote:

Where does this reagent come from, do you know? Abroad? Is it expensive? Difficult to make? Thanks.

There are shortages in 2 things.

Viral Lysis buffer: needed to break down the virus particles and release its RNA.
This can be made in Ireland with the right reagents and recipe. I've seen a couple of reports of college laboratories making the buffer for labs which is great.

There are also shortages in RNA extraction solutions. This is manufactured and cannot be made easily.

This is the material other countries are also in huge demand for. I dont know where we source it.

expectationlost

RogerThis wrote: »

Stats per county not adding up to 2677

Carlow|5|0.10%
Cavan|24|1.20%
Clare|40|1.50%
Cork|238|8.90%
Donegal|46|1.70%
Dublin|1487|55.50%
Galway|86|3.20%
Kerry|66|2.50%
Kildare|66|2.50%
Kilkenny|36|1.30%
Laois|15|0.60%
Leitrim|6|0.20%
Limerick|67|2.50%
Longford|10|0.40%
Louth|44|1.60%
Mayo|36|1.30%
Meath|54|2%
Monaghan|13|0.50%
Offaly|34|1.30%
Roscommon|10|0.40%
Sligo|19|0.70%
Tipperary|71|2.70%
Waterford|33|1.20%
Westmeath|77|2.90%
Wexford|15|0.60%
Wicklow|73|2.70%
Total|2671|100.00%

add source and date of data

RogerThis

fritzelly wrote: »

Same way they have unknowns for the ages - maybe it's last minute data that hasn't been correlated yet

There is a difference in unknowns for ages, but there are unknowns for sex too.
These aren't last minute data, it's from two days ago.

JP Liz V1

sterz wrote: »

The amount of people here who begin their posts with OMG, DEAR GOD, JESUS, etc, is incredible.

What would you prefer, heart thumbs up emoji

Professor Moriarty

JoChervil wrote: »

Yes, a quote from this article:
"The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage."

I don't see strong immune system here

Why would you need a strong immune system to kill you when you are already weak and compromised? That article does not dispute the fact that it is your own immune response triggered by Covid-19 that is primarily the cause of death.

RogerThis

expectationlost wrote: »

add source an date of data

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/5ac125-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-31-march-20/#cases-by-county

Stheno

Spudmonkey wrote: »

Simple Simon? Varadkardashian? Did you come up with those all on your own? Pity to see there are such small minded individuals out there complaining about all and anything being done by the government! Why such experts spend their time sitting on their holes at home complaining rather than stepping up I really don't know.

Said poster claims to work in the HSE and ignored many of the guidelines previously

Quantum Erasure

SuperTortoise wrote: »

Can you post a link to that article, i would'nt mind reading it, thanks.

just google the quote, it'll be the first result

fritzelly

RogerThis wrote: »

There is a difference in unknowns for ages, but there are unknowns for sex too.
These aren't last minute data, it's from two days ago.

Ask Dr Holohan then - he's the only person who knows for sure
I'm just speculating on the likely cause - it's hardly the end of the world if there is some unknown data for a county

JoChervil

SuperTortoise wrote: »

Can you post a link to that article, i would'nt mind reading it, thanks.

I can't I am a newbee, I can't send links but google: The Lancet 191 Wuhan

OUTOFSYNC

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

There are many many academic , private and even a few government DNA testing labs that would have the equipment needed to extract dna/ rna and identify the genetic code. It's a standard laboratory technique for a biologist. There are many biologists and biology labs in Ireland. The testing could be done 24 hours.

Tonnes of labs and tonnes of scientists is what was stated. And it’s not that simple either. The labs need the right controls and protocols to begin with. If it was as easy as you suggest we could do 59k a day with no issue

Professor Moriarty

JoChervil wrote: »

I can't I am a newbee, I can't send links but google: The Lancet 191 Wuhan

Here you go.

JP Liz V1

wakka12 wrote: »

Mad to think the first case in China was only confirmed 3 months to the day

I thought it was in Wuhan last November 17th or 19th

JoChervil

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why would you need a strong immune system to kill you when you are already weak and compromised? That article does not dispute the fact that it is your own immune response triggered by Covid-19 that is primarily the cause of death.

It was in Spanish flu, not in Covid-19

RogerThis

fritzelly wrote: »

Ask Dr Holohan then - he's the only person who knows for sure
I'm just speculating on the likely cause - it's hardly the end of the world if there is some unknown data for a county

They also got the calculation for Cavan wrong

Cavan 24 1.2%

Should be 0.9%

NegativeCreep

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

There are many many academic , private and even a few government DNA testing labs that would have the equipment needed to extract dna/ rna and identify the genetic code. It's a standard laboratory technique for a biologist. There are many biologists and biology labs in Ireland. The testing could be done 24 hours.

What reason do you think they have for not using all of that then? Do you think they aren’t bothered enough to look into it as hard as you have?

The government will use any resources they have available to them in order to ensure reduction of infection because it’s in everyone’s best interest. Simply saying that the test can be done in 24 hours does not make it so.

Professor Moriarty

JoChervil wrote: »

It was in Spanish flu, not in Covid-19

What was in Spanish Flu?

0lddog

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/captain-of-coronavirus-hit-us-aircraft-carrier-with-up-to-5000-crew-asks-for-urgent-help/ar-BB11YFrj?li=BBTgOZ0

DevilsHaircut

Martina1991 wrote: »

There are shortages in 2 things.

Viral Lysis buffer: needed to break down the virus particles and release its RNA.
This can be made in Ireland with the right reagents and recipe. I've seen a couple of reports of college laboratories making the buffer for labs which is great.

There are also shortages in RNA extraction solutions. This is manufactured and cannot be made easily.

This is the material other countries are also in huge demand for. I dont know where we source it.

The RNA extraction kits seem to be by Qiagen (a Dutch company).

https://cen.acs.org/analytical-chemistry/diagnostics/Shortage-RNA-extraction-kits-hampers/98/web/2020/03

Rufeo

The hospital ship?

JP Liz V1

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/5ac125-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-31-march-20/

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has today been informed that 17 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Ireland have died.
8 deaths located in the east, 3 in the south, 3 in the north-west and 3 in the west of the country
patients included 4 females and 13 males
median age of today’s reported deaths is 84
8 patients were reported as having underlying health conditions

There have now been 71 COVID-19 related deaths in Ireland.

The Health Protection Surveillance Centre has been informed of 325 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland, as at 1pm, Tuesday 31 March

The deaths are increasing (RIP those 17)

Del.Monte

Rufeo wrote: »

The hospital ship?

No - why not click on the link.

FLOOPER

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What was in Spanish Flu?

It was certainly a theory batted around that Spanish flu invoked an aggressive response from the patients immune system hence explaining why so many healthy young people died and why the very young and old weren’t as affected.

It’s one theory anyway from what I have read.

fritzelly

RogerThis wrote: »

They also got the calculation for Cavan wrong

Should be 0.9%

I think you're on to something - it's a conspiracy to hide the real numbers :rolleyes:

Talisman

Why is Cillian de Gascun facing questions about ICUs? He's the head of the NVRL.

FVP3

BanditLuke wrote: »

It's a bad news story. Want do you want reports of disneyland opening back up for parades?

But not all the news is bad, is it? The frog doesnt report the good news, and people who do dont get the thanks from the morbid brigade.

France had a low number of cases a few days ago and no link from anybody

Everything posted is the worst thing of that day. Low figures are not believed; Germany's death rate was too low for the morbid zombies., China is 40 times higher, Africa is doomed before it begins there.

Nevertheless the exponential trend, even in places like Italy, is falling.

Anyway I will be posting relatively good news every day. I do still work so I wont be able to rebut all the nonsense.