CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

beolight

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I've been trying to prepare for this virus as much as I can... If I end up in hospital with breathing difficulties and probably can't talk, would it be a good idea to have a little notebook with my details in it, like name, address, number, medications for the doctors.

Also, I believe they are looking for volunteers for clinical trials. Where do I sign up for clinical trials? If I'm going to be bad in a hospital, I'll take anything even it's part of a clinical trial.

I’m beginning to suspect there’s something peculiar about your username
Have you had that chat with your housemate yet?

regedit

ZX7R wrote: »

How long can a person be kept on respiratory Imachine in ireland,is it till the person is brain Dead

Keeping a person on a respirator isn't a problem. People who lose the ability to independently breathe, can be on them for years. When brain death (brain stem death) ensues, ventilation is withdrawn

caveat emptor

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1245171793679319040?s=20

lawred2

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1245171793679319040?s=20

Probably looking for a share bounce and some cashouts

beolight

marno21 wrote: »

The case numbers aren't really meaningful anymore, due to the large volume of transmission within the community, and the as of yet unknown rate of asymptomatic infection.

The positive rate for tests would indicate that Ireland is doing quite well on testing. Last week it was >90% of tests were returning negative, which shows that most tests are wasted on people who aren't infected, which is a massive waste of resources.

At this stage, with widespread community transmission but the country on lockdown, the only rates that matter are the hospital admission count, the ICU admission count and the death count. Note that I say count here rather than rate, the true rate is unknown and trying to come up with one is guesswork.

It is now impossible to know the rates of anything, and the number of both tests and positive cases is now meaningless such is the rate of transmission in the community. Until such time as widespread, accurate, cheap antibody testing becomes available to determine the amount who are immunte, it's anybody's guess and even then it'll be an estimate.

Agreed the daily figures released are meaningless at this stage because of community transmission
The mathematician’s amongst us will be able to give a reasonably good estimate based on the mortality rates and ICU admissions.
I will throw a caveat in though regarding the ICU figures as I’m starting to wonder if the Nursing Home deaths are occurring in ICU’s or if as I suspect they are not being moved to ICU
I’m starting to think that Leo’s 15,000 figure by the end of the month was based on sound figures with the phased in version of lockdown figured in

Macdarack

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Saw a guy last week with a mask and snorkelling goggles. I did laugh but he was sensible.

Having a mask and goggles on together doesn't sound sensible.

Macdarack

MadYaker wrote: »

So is eating bats. Anyone who wears one of them and isn't a beekeeper is clearly a nutter.

The surgical masks I can understand but those are mental :pac:

I would class any beekeeper a nutter if he wore that, around his bees.

beolight

beolight wrote: »

Agreed the daily figures released are meaningless at this stage because of community transmission
The mathematician’s amongst us will be able to give a reasonably good estimate based on the mortality rates and ICU admissions.
I will throw a caveat in though regarding the ICU figures as I’m starting to wonder if the Nursing Home deaths are occurring in ICU’s or if as I suspect they are not being moved to ICU
I’m starting to think that Leo’s 15,000 figure by the end of the month was based on sound figures with the phased in version of lockdown figured in

If we assume the postulated death rates of 1% are correct and look at our deaths - 71. This would suggest 7,100 infections to result in 71 deaths. This is not current infections however as would be an estimated 2 weeks from infection to death, with probably a wide variation.
If we compare the 7,100 number to actuals from two weeks ago - 366, this means the actual cases were 19.4 times the detected. At this ratio, the actual total cases would be 62,000, and using these assumptions in two weeks the total of deaths would be at 620.
The two massive assumptions I made were the death rate and the time from infection to death. If death rate is higher current cases are lower and visa versa. Also if the mean time from infection to death is lower, the current cases are lower. Would be relatively straightforward to put together a more detailed model on this than these crude calculations, but the accuracy of those two numbers is key

Gynoid

Grab All Association wrote: »

Firstly I’m in a relationship and happy. Don’t turn this into after hours post as it’s actually a very serious issue. 4 girls I have on the Facebook who live in places I guess between Limerick Nenagh and Thurles have hit on me since Monday evening. 3 of them were just people who randomly added me over the years and I’ve never actually talked to them before other than see one or two posts a years on my feed.

Would you like to lose a family member(S)/friends because of desperate horny people like that hooking up? One of them even had the audacity to nitpick people not adhering to social distancing the other day. One of them is a traveller girl whose skin looks like those old orange school bags.

Panic Sex. It's a thing

Gods Gift

Grab All Association wrote: »

Firstly I’m in a relationship and happy. Don’t turn this into after hours post as it’s actually a very serious issue. 4 girls I have on the Facebook who live in places I guess between Limerick Nenagh and Thurles have hit on me since Monday evening. 3 of them were just people who randomly added me over the years and I’ve never actually talked to them before other than see one or two posts a years on my feed.

Would you like to lose a family member(S)/friends because of desperate horny people like that hooking up? One of them even had the audacity to nitpick people not adhering to social distancing the other day. One of them is a traveller girl whose skin looks like those old orange school bags.

Lots of people are getting sexually frustrated.
It’ll be a free for all when this is over. God help us.

Gods Gift

Gynoid wrote: »

Panic Sex. It's a thing

Where’s my inhaler.

beolight

bekker wrote: »

Maybe this is why we should respect the Singaporean figures.

'As I write this now, I am on day 10 of my strict 14 day quarantine in Singapore after my husband was hospitalized in a Singaporean hospital for COVID-19. So I have not stepped foot outside my apartment since I received a call from the Singapore Ministry of Health.

Where are you?, they asked

In my home, I replied.

Do not leave your home. No one is to leave your home.

And so here I have stayed, with my son Ben, a senior at Singapore American School, and our live-in Indonesian “helper” Devi.

Three times a day, every day, the Ministry of Health makes a video call to us on Whats App to verify we are in our home and to record our temperature with the thermometers they issued each of us on Day 1 of our quarantine. Should our temperature reach 99.5 F (37.5C), we are to call a designated number and an ambulance will be sent to collect us. While I’m considered to be a “high infection risk,” I’m grateful to report I’m feeling well. So too is Ben and Devi. '
source
https://www.forbes.com/sites/margiewarrell/2020/03/30/singapore-sets-gold-standard-against-covid-19-be-ready-be-decisive-be-bold/

That's how you do self-isolation.

Read a similar story from an Irish guy who travelled through their country and was quarantined in a hotel. Transported to hotel by 3 officials in full PPE. Magnet gadget put on hotel room door that would trigger alarm if opened. Next morning 4 medics in full hazmat kit arrived carried out tests and left food.Every day was checked by medics i Was tested 3 times before being cleared to leave

Compare and contrast with our procedure to hand arrivals a leaflet and ask them to self isolate when they home

Ficheall

NIMAN wrote: »

re: the video.

The main contributor says she is seeing many people in their 20s, 30s, 40s, and a lot of them are not making it.

Yet we are told the median age of death in Ireland is 84.

And I think the average age in most other countries is very high too.
This link would say that what she is saying is incorrect?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

If there are nine deaths of ages 18, 24, 35, 52, 84, 86, 86,90, 92, then the median is 84. It definitely affects older people more, but younger people are certainly not immune..

893bet

Grab All Association wrote: »

Firstly I’m in a relationship and happy. Don’t turn this into after hours post as it’s actually a very serious issue. 4 girls I have on the Facebook who live in places I guess between Limerick Nenagh and Thurles have hit on me since Monday evening. 3 of them were just people who randomly added me over the years and I’ve never actually talked to them before other than see one or two posts a years on my feed.

Would you like to lose a family member(S)/friends because of desperate horny people like that hooking up? One of them even had the audacity to nitpick people not adhering to social distancing the other day. One of them is a traveller girl whose skin looks like those old orange school bags.

Sounds serious. Prob be on the news later.
We are here for your support anyway.

Stay strong hun.

Perhaps you should not accept “friend” requests from people’s you don’t know? Just an idea.

beolight

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If we assume the postulated death rates of 1% are correct and look at our deaths - 71. This would suggest 7,100 infections to result in 71 deaths. This is not current infections however as would be an estimated 2 weeks from infection to death, with probably a wide variation.
If we compare the 7,100 number to actuals from two weeks ago - 366, this means the actual cases were 19.4 times the detected. At this ratio, the actual total cases would be 62,000, and using these assumptions in two weeks the total of deaths would be at 620.
The two massive assumptions I made were the death rate and the time from infection to death. If death rate is higher current cases are lower and visa versa. Also if the mean time from infection to death is lower, the current cases are lower. Would be relatively straightforward to put together a more detailed model on this than these crude calculations, but the accuracy of those two numbers is key

That was quick! Thanks. I forgot to include 2 week time lag in my back of envelope rudimentary calculator

Given that HSE were good enough to inform us about 23 clusters in Nursing Homes to date and with the high number of deaths of elderly people it would be safe to assume that a large percentage of them are Nursing Home residents

The percentage of those transferred to ICU we won’t be told. Evidence we can glean from international reporting on Nursing Home deaths from covid all report rapid onset and deterioration of those infected. Based on this I think a low percentage will be transferred to ICU.

Speakerboxx

Apparently Chinese wet markets are back in business again. Muppets. They get away with murder. The World should boycott Chinese products. Let the b@stsrds deal with themselves.

caveat emptor

Where's me jersey....

caveat emptor wrote: »

I think we have a huge challenge and the whole of society needs to act.

Every country that has had an outbreak has been completely hamstrung economically / financially etc.

I sympathise with everyone on here but I'm not naive. Approaching it as if it doesn't exist or saying it won't be that bad here will only get you so far.

Keeping a positive mindset is super important. If you feel that ST Patricks day , parades , events , gatherings are irresponsible at this stage then there is an onus on all of us to make that be know to the relevant authorities. Unfortunately our politicians are reactive and not proactive on this issue it seems.

I'd also say we should bear in mind business owners who potentially face devastating consequences if shut downs occur which they likely will. We should push for tax payments to be suspended, mortgage freezes and any other mitigation we can think of. (these are some which have been done in Italy so far.)

We need to put on the green jersey now rather than later. When it gets bad there'll be plenty of people telling you to take one for the team. I'd rather take it now and be real about it.

https://twitter.com/rte/status/1245009725290352640?s=20

Coyote

if we look at a number of countries around the EU
picking a few places that had first recorded cases around the same time as Ireland

Netherlands Feb 26
Switzerland Feb 24
Austria Feb 24
Denmark Feb 26
Ireland Feb 28

now look at the number of deaths
Netherlands 1039
Switzerland 433
Austria 128
Denmark 90
Ireland 71

cases detected per death
Netherlands 12.1
Switzerland 38.3
Austria 80.4
Denmark 31
Ireland 45.5

S.Korea is listed by many as the gold standard for testing and they only found 65.8 cases per death very close to Ireland

no country is finding all the cases
but you can see that Austria is finding a lot more that the others and Ireland is in 2 place in the EU for detecting cases per death for contrays that started at around the same time

Germany numbers are 133.3 cases found per death, but i do not know if they are just very good or not recording all deaths



Regards

Coyote

XsApollo

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Apparently Chinese wet markets are back in business again. Muppets. They get away with murder. The World should boycott Chinese products. Let the b@stsrds deal with themselves.

I actually thought about this last night.
If they actually thought the virus came from wet markets would they let them reopen to cause the same thing again.

Which in turn leads to that they know where it came from and it wasn’t from wet markets.

Also why didn’t Beijing and Shanghai get hit like nearly every other country in the world?

Conspiracy stuff but you gotta ask why.

Just Saying

Coyote wrote: »

if we look at a number of countries around the EU
picking a few places that had first recorded cases around the same time as Ireland

Netherlands Feb 26
Switzerland Feb 24
Austria Feb 24
Denmark Feb 26
Ireland Feb 28

now look at the number of deaths
Netherlands 1039
Switzerland 433
Austria 128
Denmark 90
Ireland 71

cases detected per death
Netherlands 12.1
Switzerland 38.3
Austria 80.4
Denmark 31
Ireland 45.5

S.Korea is listed by many as the gold standard for testing and they only found 65.8 cases per death very close to Ireland

no country is finding all the cases
but you can see that Austria is finding a lot more that the others and Ireland is in 2 place in the EU for detecting cases per death for contrays that started at around the same time

Germany numbers are 133.3 cases found per death, but i do not know if they are just very good or not recording all deaths



Regards

Coyote

From what I can gather the median age of those tested in Germany is the lowest in Europe.Therefore a far higher percentage of their positive cases recovered rather than
died.
Apparently also many people have been tested multiple times and each time has been negative.

I would imagine these factors skew their results for comparison purposes

Kivaro

It is reprehensible to humanity that China is still dishonest with their reporting, and their attitude is despicable because the world was looking at their numbers initially on how to respond to the crisis. It is now presumed that China's numbers could be as high by a factor of 40 times of what they initially reported.

China has just now started today to included asymptomatic positives to their results. In the past, they did not include them. It has been proven that asymptomatic carriers do pass on the virus, and this was also confirmed by China themselves today. They are going to great pains to point out that the source of new infections are being imported from overseas into China, and while that may be true, it may also be a mechanism for them to "correct" their initial reporting.
The whole world needs to work together in this life/death battle.

is_that_so

XsApollo wrote: »

I actually thought about this last night.
If they actually thought the virus came from wet markets would they let them reopen to cause the same thing again.

Which in turn leads to that they know where it came from and it wasn’t from wet markets.

Also why didn’t Beijing and Shanghai get hit like nearly every other country in the world?

Conspiracy stuff but you gotta ask why.

Wild meat/animals continue to be banned, not that anyone would be eating it anyway at the moment.

Coyote

Just Saying wrote: »

From what I can gather the median age of those tested in Germany is the lowest in Europe.Therefore a far higher percentage of their positive cases recovered rather than
died.
Apparently also many people have been tested multiple times and each time has been negative.

I would imagine these factors skew their results for comparison purposes

Hi Just Saying

i also heard reports that Germany was testing 500K a week so a good chance they are finding loads of mild cases

shesty

XsApollo wrote: »

I actually thought about this last night.
If they actually thought the virus came from wet markets would they let them reopen to cause the same thing again.

Which in turn leads to that they know where it came from and it wasn’t from wet markets.

Also why didn’t Beijing and Shanghai get hit like nearly every other country in the world?

Conspiracy stuff but you gotta ask why.

They believe that it spread from a wet market in Wuhan (if not originated), which was cleared and closed by police before they could carry out the relevant animal testing to confirm it. I think the story is that they had several people present with similar pneumonia at hospital, all around the same time in December and they all had connections with the relevant market.

Akrasia

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Saw a guy last week with a mask and snorkelling goggles. I did laugh but he was sensible.

Should have tied the mask to the end of the snorkel.

Speakerboxx

is_that_so wrote: »

Wild meat/animals continue to be banned, not that anyone would be eating it anyway at the moment.

Love to see if that's actually true. China cant be trusted and would question everything.

silverharp

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Love to see if that's actually true. China cant be trusted and would question everything.

I wouldn't trust a weather forecast from the CCP

https://twitter.com/majorgauravarya/status/1244567505177210880

twinytwo

XsApollo wrote: »

I actually thought about this last night.
If they actually thought the virus came from wet markets would they let them reopen to cause the same thing again.

Which in turn leads to that they know where it came from and it wasn’t from wet markets.

Also why didn’t Beijing and Shanghai get hit like nearly every other country in the world?

Conspiracy stuff but you gotta ask why.

They would and have in the past. The wet markets are there to supply the rich with the ingredients for their nonsical health potions etc.

It would never happen but a world wide embargo of China for a while might finally being them into line

Rob A. Bank

Trump at last admits that this is not the flu and that the coronavirus is far more viscous. Three month too late, but I suppose better late than never. :rolleyes:

Meanwhile in South America, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro has tried to reassure his citizens over the threat of coronavirus by claiming Brazilians can bathe in excrement “and nothing happens”. And he admits that he believes himself to be South America's 'Trump'.

The world has had enough of these dangerous right wing populist clowns.

.

pc7

beolight wrote: »

The percentage of those transferred to ICU we won’t be told. Evidence we can glean from international reporting on Nursing Home deaths from covid all report rapid onset and deterioration of those infected. Based on this I think a low percentage will be transferred to ICU.

:(Are nursing homes in a position to give medicine to ease the discomfort of the patient? (like morphine or something?)

Achasanai

XsApollo wrote: »

I actually thought about this last night.
If they actually thought the virus came from wet markets would they let them reopen to cause the same thing again.

Which in turn leads to that they know where it came from and it wasn’t from wet markets.

Also why didn’t Beijing and Shanghai get hit like nearly every other country in the world?

Conspiracy stuff but you gotta ask why.

It is odd about Beijing and Shanghai (if true) but it's an odd form of germ warfare (if that's what the conspiracy theory is) that decimates a country for such a prolonged period. I would've thought the best thing to do was to infect a person (or a flight) and get on a chartered plane to the US/Europe and then close your borders. But I guess mistakes happen, even when orchestrated a conspiracy.

iamwhoiam

pc7 wrote: »

:(Are nursing homes in a position to give medicine to ease the discomfort of the patient? (like morphine or something?)

Yes . Morphine , Midazalam and Buscopan

pc7

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Yes . Morphine , Midazalam and Buscopan

At least that is some comfort

mwv

Ficheall wrote: »

If there are nine deaths of ages 18, 24, 35, 52, 84, 86, 86,90, 92, then the median is 84. It definitely affects older people more, but younger people are certainly not immune..

I thought this was wrong but I stand corrected! Apologies! That is grim...

IRELAND

Info released 11th Feb - 65 tested 0 confirmed for period start (?) up to Mon 10th Feb
Info released 19th Feb - 78 tested 0 confirmed - 13 new tests in week Tue 11th to Mon 18th Feb
Info released 25th Feb 90 tested 0 confirmed - 12 new tests in week Tue 19th - Mon 24th Feb
Info released 3rd March 397 tested 2 confirmed - 307 tests in week Tue 25th Feb to Mon 2nd March
Info released 10th March 1784 tested 34 (+32) confirmed - 1387 tests in week Tue 3rd Mar to Mon 9th March
Info released 17th March 6636 tested 292 (+258) confirmed 2 deaths- 4852 tests in week Tue 10th March to Mon 16th March
Info released 24th March 17992 tested 1329 (+1037) confirmed 7 (+5) deaths - 11356 tests in week Tuesday 17th March to Monday 23rd March

Info released 31st March 30213 tested 3235 (+1906) confirmed 71 (+64) deaths - 12221 tests in week Tuesday 24th March to Monday 30th March


Average of 1745 tests carried out per day based on 7 day week.

amm89

amm89 wrote: »

I think the median age in that scenario would be 55! Just incase it invokes panic in some

No, that's the mean, the median is 84, and the median is what is being reported

amadangomor

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Trump at last admits that this is not the flu and that the coronavirus is far more viscous. Three month too late, but I suppose better late than never. :rolleyes:

Meanwhile in South America, Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro has tried to reassure his citizens over the threat of coronavirus by claiming Brazilians can bathe in excrement “and nothing happens”. And he admits that he believes himself to be South America's 'Trump'.

The world has had enough of these dangerous right wing populist clowns.

.

Apparently not, Trumps popularity is very high at the moment:(

Pseudonym121

No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.

Hector Savage

They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

paw patrol

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Trump at last admits that this is not the flu and that the coronavirus is far more viscous. Three month too late, but I suppose better late than never. :rolleyes:


.

I don't get this attitude , why is trump singled out for something that is 3 months too late...?

go back 3 months and you'll find the only people in the west concerned about this were people like alex jones. Others in the US with like governors etc who have direct local power - were actually encouraging people to get out and socialise
Putin was bothered by it but only end of jan . Outside of asia he was probably the first to act.

Until quite recently we weren't sure it would even get to Ireland....but as you know - skiers gotta ski.

Gynoid

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.

To not create panic, do you think? Or some other reason?

Gynoid

Hector Savage wrote: »

They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

Stop that kind of talk immediately!

Hector Savage

Hector Savage wrote: »

They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

Hector! I’m sending you a virtual hug right now. Keep strong xxxxxx

mwv

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No, that's the mean, the median is 84, and the median is what is being reported

I just copped before I saw your comment, thanks for that!

Professor Moriarty

Hector Savage wrote: »

They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

If you're serious contact your next of kin, your GP or go to A&E immediately.

Gynoid

Gynoid wrote: »

Stop that kind of talk immediately!

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Hector! I’m sending you a virtual hug right now. Keep strong xxxxxx

And there we have descriptive evidence of different parenting styles

Hector...I am warning you

Steve F

Hector Savage wrote: »

They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

If you're struggling is there anyone you can talk to?

Gynoid

Gynoid wrote: »

And there we have descriptive evidence of different parenting styles

Hector...I am warning you

It’s the good cop bad cop routine

Hrududu

Hector Savage wrote: »

They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

I mean this in the nicest way, but you've been freaking out in these threads for a while. You should really cut down on the amount of news you consume on this. It will send your anxiety sky high and really what does keeping up to date on the figures mean? Just chill in your house and try to do stuff that keeps your mind off it.

Easier said than done I know.

domrush

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

No median and average are different. Median is being used in order to keep the age high as average would yield a significantly lower age.

In research papers there’d always a reason you choose median vs average. The use of median instead of average is very calculated.

Median is typically used on a heavily skewed dataset, which is what we have here. The age of deaths is heavily weighted to older ages, it makes far more sense to use median than mean here.

There’s no deceiving going on here