CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

BruteStock

RentDayBlues wrote: »

And was this a reliable source???

Colleges are putting other grading systems in place - online, coursework etc

If students do exams at home , they can cog it from the internet?

AlmightyCushion

citysights wrote: »

Fergal Bowers on RTE reporting on a story where a swab in a nursing home was taken, but the swab wasn’t returned positive or negative and the patient has since died. The person who passed will now be treated as if they were covid positive by the funeral directors with all of the strict funeral arrangements that entails. How is a person covid positive in this circumstance with no test resul returned?

Better to be safe than sorry. Act as if they are positive. Same way people waiting on a test result are told to act as if they have it and self isolate.

FVP3

Kivaro wrote: »

And to add to that, the Mayor of New Orleans was the person who decided that Mardi Gras should be held this year in late February. This was an insane decision, as you are all aware what happens e.g. sharing of drinks, kissing/hugging, and the throwing/sharing of beads.
New Orelans is now an epicenter for Covid-19 in the States.

Guess who she (the Mayor) is blaming now?
Yep, Trump and the Federal Government. But she was the person who allowed it to go ahead ......... while there were reports at the time from all around the world of the carnage it was already causing.

That's one example, by and large the leadership on this has been taken by the Mayors and Governors, and even at country level. Dr. Sara Cody ordered santa clara county to "shelter in place" a month or so ago. Then that spread to all of california, but not until mar 20 ( when the Governor extended it)

Fr_Dougal

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

This barchart speaks for itself with regard to Trump's lack of response to the virus.

Think Italy was bad ? An enormous human tragedy is unfolding in the USA.

Trump is an idiot and his response has been abysmal, but I’d like to see that graph scaled, you can’t compare a 300M state to a 60M state.

BanditLuke

harr wrote: »

Was speaking to a nurse this morning who is involved in one of the testing locations and she said it’s a disaster.. little or no testing being carried out , her location only carried 24 tests on Monday and its down to the huge backlogs in the labs .
Thousands probably more walking around spreading this. She told me to take no notice of the official figures as in the reality the amount of people infected is multiples of the official number.

What did people expect with the HSE involved? If they expected better then they know nothing about the HSE and how they operate. I'm talking about top tier pen pushers here not front line staff of course.

stockshares

citysights wrote: »

Fergal Bowers on RTE reporting on a story where a swab in a nursing home was taken, but the swab wasn’t returned positive or negative and the patient has since died. The person who passed will now be treated as if they were covid positive by the funeral directors with all of the strict funeral arrangements that entails. How is a person covid positive in this circumstance with no test resul returned?

Whether it's recorded as a Covid death isn't as important as not getting the result back in the first place.

If a patient's doctor had been given a result action could have been taken to admit the.patient to hospital.

I would imagine in cases like this that relatives or the Nursing homes themselves will be taking action whenever Covid had been brought under control.

is_that_so

BruteStock wrote: »

If students do exams at home , they can cog it from the internet?

There is this from early March but I'd imagine the best thing is to check with relevant institution.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-universities-plan-online-classes-and-exams-in-case-of-campus-closures-1.4191821

Professor Moriarty

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Better to be safe than sorry. Act as if they are positive. Same way people waiting on a test result are told to act as if they have it and self isolate.

I read some clever advice recently. If you don't want to get infected you should behave as if you are infected and don't want to infect others.

grindle

BruteStock wrote: »

If students do exams at home , they can cog it from the internet?

College and University exams are quite different to "memorise-by-rote" secondary school exams, and there's software which checks for plagiarism.

Practical exams and anything that has to be inspected in person is much harder to deal with.

Talisman

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1245272347101343745

There are a number of issues with testing - there are health care workers in isolation waiting for tests yet the likes of Ryan Tubridy get test results no problem.

ITman88

harr wrote: »

Was speaking to a nurse this morning who is involved in one of the testing locations and she said it’s a disaster.. little or no testing being carried out , her location only carried 24 tests on Monday and its down to the huge backlogs in the labs .
Thousands probably more walking around spreading this. She told me to take no notice of the official figures as in the reality the amount of people infected is multiples of the official number.

Where are they walking around spreading it?

stockshares

BanditLuke wrote: »

What did people expect with the HSE involved? If they expected better then they know nothing about the HSE and how they operate. I'm talking about top tier pen pushers here not front line staff of course.

They have a bad record. Didn't they challenge Ruth Morrissey in Court regarding compensation for her Cervical Check award.

Does anyone know what Tony Holahan's role was in cervical check.

Rob A. Bank

murpho999 wrote: »

There's hardly anybody travelling. You make it sound like thousands of Italians from Lombardy are boarding flights to Dublin and then running rampage.

There's hardly any aviation activity now.

21 flights scheduled to land in Dublin today and none from the "hotspots".

Dublin Arrivals today

Also, temperature check that is not really effective as most people will not have a temperature or any symptoms.

Still trying to justify the ridiculous decision not to screen arrivals into the country ? :rolleyes:

Practically everyone in Ireland is doing their best to mitigate the spread of this rotten virus. It is crazy that the government is allowing potential spreaders into the country without screening.

There should be a quarantine hotel in Dublin airport where the guests stay for 14 days at their own expense, before release into the country. Other countries do the same and I am sure the hotels would value the trade.

harr

stretchaq wrote: »

did she send you a whatsapp aswell

Yeah 10 of them , why does everything have to be lie or unbelievable to people. While I definitely don’t read or take any notice of social media when a nurse who I know well tells me something I have no reason not to believe her.
To be honest , I don’t care who thinks its nonsense or not .. just passing on the information she gave me.

caveat emptor

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Prof is right in this case, median would tend to the higher age group. It's a good measure.

In fairness to HSE. Just found this way more detail.



https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2031.03.2020v1-%20website%20version.pdf


For instance by looking at SG dashboard this we can see the largest cohort of those infected in SG is the 21 - 30 male cohort.



Our version stops at 65 +. The pyramid looks very different to ours. Probably reflects the fact that we are based toward testing more serious / older cases.
So you end up with a statement saying "much more likely to affect older people because we've only been testing older people" i.e selection bias.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID19%20Epidemiology%20in%20Ireland_01042020v2.jpg

Loafing Oaf

citysights wrote: »

Fergal Bowers on RTE reporting on a story where a swab in a nursing home was taken, but the swab wasn’t returned positive or negative and the patient has since died. The person who passed will now be treated as if they were covid positive by the funeral directors with all of the strict funeral arrangements that entails.

All funeral arrangements pretty strict these days:(...

Gynoid

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Trump is an idiot and his response has been abysmal, but I’d like to see that graph scaled, you can’t compare a 300M state to a 60M state.

And do people even know the name of the Prime Ministers of Italy or Spain where things have been disastrous? Likely not, it is all Drumpf this, Drumpf that. He is a strange odd person, but feck me this non stop politicisation of the story is very lame. These are real people suffering. It will alsi likely be the US that will produce the most innovative treatments as they have brilliant facilities and researchers - will it be Drumpf this and that then. Just leave the politics aside, even if you hate Boris or Trump. Believe it or not, they are not the macabre death-bringing cartoon caricatures political people love to paint them as.

Away With The Fairies

harr wrote: »

Was speaking to a nurse this morning who is involved in one of the testing locations and she said it’s a disaster.. little or no testing being carried out , her location only carried 24 tests on Monday and its down to the huge backlogs in the labs .
Thousands probably more walking around spreading this. She told me to take no notice of the official figures as in the reality the amount of people infected is multiples of the official number.

I hope anyone mild enough has the cop on to self isolate and not wait for a doctor or test to tell them to.

quokula

harr wrote: »

Was speaking to a nurse this morning who is involved in one of the testing locations and she said it’s a disaster.. little or no testing being carried out , her location only carried 24 tests on Monday and its down to the huge backlogs in the labs .
Thousands probably more walking around spreading this. She told me to take no notice of the official figures as in the reality the amount of people infected is multiples of the official number.

If that's true then it would be great news because it means the death rate is as low as the flu.

1641

josip wrote: »

mean = average

Correct and incorrect. The mean, the median and the mode are all measures of the average. Each has its use. The mean is by far the most versatile as it is more versatile for further statistical analysis (eg, analysis of significance in clinical trials). However, it can be deceptive in skewed distributions.
For example. Five people died in the parish of Ballywherever last month. The ages were as follows:


1, 73, 80, 90, 99.


What was the average age of death in the parish? The mean would say 68.6. The median would say 80.

Which gives a better indication of the average age of death in Ballywherever?

josip

I really hope the RTE report should have said "65 or over"

By midnight on Sunday, the number of people with Covid-19 who had been admitted to ICU was 113.
The age profile totals were as follows:

• 43 people aged 65
• 30 aged between 55-64
• 25 aged between 45-54
• 8 aged between 35-44
• 6 aged between 25-34
• 1 aged between 5-14

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0401/1127767-coronavirus-ireland-testing/

Talisman

BruteStock wrote: »

If students do exams at home , they can cog it from the internet?

My college exams are going to be online and the examiner has told us it will be open book. With this in mind the lecturers have been told to alter the exams so that the students have to demonstrate their understanding of the theory by applying it to problems/scenarios rather than just regurgitate the theory.

pH

I get that a lot of people don't like Trump, my view is that he's a populist buffoon, an egotist and braggart, but isn't particularly evil in any real way.

I'd just like to know what people think he should have done and when, with the caveat that the things you think he should have done must be possible as an action of a sitting President in peacetime. Ie you fully understand what powers and decisions are taken and federal and state level, and also understand the function of the house of congress and the senate and what powers they have.

And also you have to be entirely honest that if Trump had done any of the things you think he should have done, would you have been posting here 5 minutes later about Trump making a power grab and consolidating his power as a dictator.

For example, for us in Ireland a 'country' wide response seems logical, though there have been many posts on boards suggesting that various hotspots be locked down (X is riddled ... )etc. It seems reasonable to me that in a country like the US this decision is taken at state level (note I'm not saying this is the correct thing to do, just that it seems a complicated problem and having different states on differing degrees on lockdown doesn't seem entirely unreasonable)

The US does not have a centralised health system controlled by a government department that reports to the president. It's a complex system of private and state bodies with some federal oversight (FDA etc.)

So without 'grabbing' any power or doing anything you would consider authoritarian, what exactly should Trump have done and when?

ITman88

caveat emptor wrote: »

In fairness to HSE. Just found this way more detail.



https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2031.03.2020v1-%20website%20version.pdf


For instance by looking at SG dashboard this we can see the largest cohort of those infected in SG is the 21 - 30 male cohort.



Our version stops at 65 +. The pyramid looks very different to ours. Probably reflects the fact that we are based toward testing more serious / older cases.
So you end up with a statement saying "much more likely to affect older people because we've only been testing older people" i.e selection bias.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID19%20Epidemiology%20in%20Ireland_01042020v2.jpg

It makes sense regarding males 21-30 being most infected, they would be the most mobile and active and probably having contact with a greater number of people. Most of them also won’t have a clue they have it

ZX7R

citysights wrote: »

Fergal Bowers on RTE reporting on a story where a swab in a nursing home was taken, but the swab wasn’t returned positive or negative and the patient has since died. The person who passed will now be treated as if they were covid positive by the funeral directors with all of the strict funeral arrangements that entails. How is a person covid positive in this circumstance with no test resul returned?

The test was inconclusive in a situation like this the authorities would instruct it to be carry out the funeral as if the person was positive.
Health and safety.
All funerals during our lockdown are restricted either way.

Ger Roe

Gynoid wrote: »

And do people even know the name of the Prime Ministers of Italy or Spain where things have been disastrous? Likely not, it is all Drumpf this, Drumpf that. He is a strange odd person, but feck me this non stop politicisation of the story is very lame. These are real people suffering. It will alsi likely be the US that will produce the most innovative treatments as they have brilliant facilities and researchers - will it be Drumpf this and that then. Just leave the politics aside, even if you hate Boris or Trump. Believe it or not, they are not the macabre death-bringing cartoon caricatures political people love to paint them as.

It's nothing to do with politics, it's all to do with being obnoxious and incompetent.

Steer55

Talisman wrote: »

There are a number of issues with testing - there are health care workers in isolation waiting for tests yet the likes of Ryan Tubridy get test results no problem.

Why is that

Wombatman

Riddle me this one.

Over the last 5 days we have had 302,294,200,295 and 325 confirmed cases. Averages to about 300 cases a day.

If the positivity rate is 15% then 300 must be 15% of the number of completed tests over the same period, right. This would require a testing capacity of 2000 completions per day.

They have stated they can only complete 1500 a day due to equipment shortfall, so how are these numbers possible?

I'm not getting this from anywhere else. It's just simple math, my level.

Would you agree that if we had the capacity to test more we would be seeing more confirmed cases? I would suggest the answer has to be yes.

We won't get big confirmed case numbers because we can't. It has been suggested that we are flattening the curve. I would suggest the reason for this is we have reached a ceiling of confirmed cases, around 300, due to the lab test bottleneck.

FVP3

bilston wrote: »

It's going to look a bit odd when all this is over than "only" 3,000 people in China died and potentially a quarter of million people died in the US and probably a similar amount across the whole of Europe.

It's exactly because China got a handle on it and the US didn't ( so far) that this is suspected to be false.

However China reacted with a shutdown of 11 million people when the known cases in Wuhan were 400, or so. And that locked in was far more severe than western countries have done even now. Then their case plateaued and then fell. Not seeing what is so conspiratorial about that. If they were missing 80% of their cases it wouldnt matter if everybody was locked down, as deaths and reported cases ( which is a sample of the total) both fell.

ChikiChiki

Talisman wrote: »

There are a number of issues with testing - there are health care workers in isolation waiting for tests yet the likes of Ryan Tubridy get test results no problem.

I have to agree with this. My best friend has been having breathing difficulties and was only tested yesterday having been waiting a full week.

Then he was told yesterday it could be 2 weeks to get the results. As he said himself, he could be dead within that time-frame if things deteriorate as he waits it out.

People in positions of influence seem to be jumping the queue.

ITman88

Steer55 wrote: »

Why is that

Because Tubridy being confirmed positive is front page news

Doctor Jimbob

harr wrote: »

Was speaking to a nurse this morning who is involved in one of the testing locations and she said it’s a disaster.. little or no testing being carried out , her location only carried 24 tests on Monday and its down to the huge backlogs in the labs .
Thousands probably more walking around spreading this. She told me to take no notice of the official figures as in the reality the amount of people infected is multiples of the official number.

Is that you Paddy?

Rob A. Bank

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Trump is an idiot and his response has been abysmal, but I’d like to see that graph scaled, you can’t compare a 300M state to a 60M state.

It's the shape of the graph that matters and whether it is linear or exponential.

Unfortunately it looks exponential at present and closer in shape to the worst case scenario behind Trump in this picture. The projected death rates are truly horrifying, even with best case scenario mitigation efforts.

stockshares

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I read some clever advice recently. If you don't want to get infected you should behave as if you are infected and don't want to infect others.

How can someone do that in a nursing home?

bilston

FVP3 wrote: »

It's exactly because China got a handle on it and the US didn't ( so far) that this is suspected to be false.

However China reacted with a shutdown of 11 million people when the known cases in Wuhan were 400, or so. And that locked in was far more severe than western countries have done even now. Then their case plateaued and then fell. Not seeing what is so conspiratorial about that. If they were missing 80% of their cases it wouldnt matter if everybody was locked down, as deaths and reported cases ( which is a sample of the total) both fell.

China didn't act for weeks, sure they arrested people for speaking out saying that there was a problem in the first place.

It's not particularly conspiratorial. I just think their figures are nonsense.

ITman88

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I have to agree with this. My best friend has been having breathing difficulties and was only tested yesterday having been waiting a full week.

Then he was told yesterday it could be 2 weeks to get the results. As he said himself, he could be dead within that time-frame if things deteriorate as he waits it out.

People in positions of influence seem to be jumping the queue.

A positive test won’t save his life, a ventilator will.
Everyone has been told if you have symptoms isolate, a positive test will make very little difference

sydthebeat

Wombatman wrote: »

Would you agree that if we had the capacity to test more we would be seeing more confirmed cases? I would suggest the answer has to be yes.
.

The answer to that is an absolute and unqualified yes.

Especially given the change in testing criteria introduced at the end of last week.

josip

1641 wrote: »

Correct and incorrect. The mean, the median and the mode are all measures of the average. Each has its use. The mean is by far the most versatile as it is more versatile for further statistical analysis (eg, analysis of significance in clinical trials). However, it can be deceptive in skewed distributions.
For example. Five people died in the parish of Ballywherever last month. The ages were as follows:


1, 73, 80, 90, 99.


What was the average age of death in the parish? The mean would say 68.6. The median would say 80.

Which gives a better indication of the average age of death in Ballywherever?

My original 3 word post was to help explain the pun 5 posts back up, not related to the analysis of the HSE numbers.
I understand your point, but in your reply you're taking a mathematical term (mean) and choosing to compare it to a Ballywherever usage of the term average.

In mathematics, the average is the arithmetic mean.

pawdee

Hector Savage wrote: »

They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....


F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

I wouldn't go down that road. Surely you want to be around just to see how it all pans out? It's either going to be apocalyptically bad (great fun) or, not too bad at all (great fun). Relax.

Kivaro

bilston wrote: »

China didn't act for weeks, sure they arrested people for speaking out saying that there was a problem in the first place.

It's not particularly conspiratorial. I just think their figures are nonsense.

That, and now experts are telling us that China's numbers are 'out' by a factor of 40 times the actual numbers.

ChikiChiki

ITman88 wrote: »

A positive test won’t save his life, a ventilator will.
Everyone has been told if you have symptoms isolate, a positive test will make very little difference

But the way the message is conveyed, you need the positive test to get to the ventilator.

caveat emptor

ITman88 wrote: »

It makes sense regarding males 21-30 being most infected, they would be the most mobile and active and probably having contact with a greater number of people. Most of them also won’t have a clue they have it

Yeah shows how important physical distancing is within the community. Again credit where it is due offers much more insight to what is going on. Fair play to "EPI Team" in hse.

One thing from that report. Of the deaths thus far 90% of deaths have been in 65+.

However ICU admissions much less skewed to older ages so any age can end up there. Hopefully they all recover.




Well worth a read for everyone on here.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2031.03.2020v1-%20website%20version.pdf

weldoninhio

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I hope anyone mild enough has the cop on to self isolate and not wait for a doctor or test to tell them to.

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

ITman88

ChikiChiki wrote: »

But the way the message is conveyed, you need the positive test to get to the ventilator.

No you need breathing difficulties to get a ventilator

is_that_so

Kivaro wrote: »

That, and now experts are telling us that China's numbers are 'out' by a factor of 40 times the actual numbers.

Experts are like the virus, the number that will ultimately emerge from this is unknown but growing rapidly!

Rob A. Bank

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Still trying to justify the ridiculous decision not to screen arrivals into the country ? :rolleyes:

Practically everyone in Ireland is doing their best to mitigate the spread of this rotten virus. It is crazy that the government is allowing potential spreaders into the country without screening.

There should be a quarantine hotel in Dublin airport where the guests stay for 14 days at their own expense, before release into the country. Other countries do the same and I am sure the hotels would value the trade.

Who is going to travel to Ireland, except for a very few remaining Irish citizens / residents? Who will then do their bit to help mitigate spread in just the same way as those already here. Or do you think that all new arrivals are going to spend 14 days running around the place spitting at people?

IspeakcozIcan

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

Well yes that's in line with the guidance.

In the UK, they advise a 7 day self-isolation period even if you test positive. Big difference there. I haven't seen this difference explained anywhere.

JaimeLannister

Very good info in that HSE report. Anyone know if they publish it daily?

Bob24

FVP3 wrote: »

Another enemy of the west fiddling with the numbers. It's crazy how the enemies of the US in particular are so bad with their stats. This has particularly ramped up since the US took the leadership in world cases.

Geopolitics are not a consideration here.

Iran is the country where the deputy health minister said on TV that everything was under control while looking clearly sick and being infected with the virus. Where several key governments figures died from it. Where there were riots because of it. Etc.

Suspicions about their figures were raised *way* before the US came into the spotlight and there is absolutely not relationship between the 2 things.

All countries have some level of voluntary or involuntary issues with their figures, but for me Iran is in the top league in terms of fiddling with them.

is_that_so

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

Those are the guidelines and she's not doing anything wrong.