CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

weldoninhio

IspeakcozIcan wrote: »

Well yes that's in line with the guidance.

In the UK, they advise a 7 day self-isolation period even if you test positive. Big difference there. I haven't seen this difference explained anywhere.

Then how come the HSE won't let my doctor back to work, 3 weeks after she was tested, because she hasn't got her result yet??

Quantum Erasure

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I have to agree with this. My best friend has been having breathing difficulties and was only tested yesterday having been waiting a full week.

Then he was told yesterday it could be 2 weeks to get the results. As he said himself, he could be dead within that time-frame if things deteriorate as he waits it out.
.

The test has nothing to do with treatment, if things deteriorate he should call his GP,

Kivaro

is_that_so wrote: »

Experts are like the virus, the number that will ultimately emerge from this is unknown but growing rapidly!

China's skewing of the numbers at an early stage has caused untold damage to the rest of the world.

RebelButtMunch

ChikiChiki wrote: »

But the way the message is conveyed, you need the positive test to get to the ventilator.

I doubt if you need a ventilator, they'll wait until a positive test is confirmed.

tobefrank321

Wombatman wrote: »

Riddle me this one.

Over the last 5 days we have had 302,294,200,295 and 325 confirmed cases. Averages to about 300 cases a day.

If the positivity rate is 15% then 300 must be 15% of the number of completed tests over the same period, right. This would require a testing capacity of 2000 completions per day.

They have stated they can only complete 1500 a day due to equipment shortfall, so how are these numbers possible?

I'm not getting this from anywhere else. It's just simple math, my level.

Would you agree that if we had the capacity to test more we would be seeing more confirmed cases? I would suggest the answer has to be yes.

We won't get big confirmed case numbers because we can't. It has been suggested that we are flattening the curve. I would suggest the reason for this is we have reached a ceiling of confirmed cases, around 300, due to the lab test bottleneck.

Its easy to swab someone. Hell we could swab 100,000 people a day no problem.

Its analysing the results where the bottle neck is.

So when the government say we plan to do 5000 tests a day, its great PR which is swallowed by the FG base who at this stage are starting to resemble the Trump base in America.

They need to be more specific and say we plan to process 5000 swabs a day in the labs. Or just be transparent in general.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

1641

josip wrote: »

My original 3 word post was to help explain the pun 5 posts back up, not related to the analysis of the HSE numbers.
I understand your point, but in your reply you're taking a mathematical term (mean) and choosing to compare it to a Ballywherever usage of the term average.

In mathematics, the average is the arithmetic mean.

Sorry, I missed your original post.


The mean, median and mode are measures of "the average" used in statistics:


Mean, median, and mode are three kinds of "averages". There are many "averages" in statistics, but these are, I think, the three most common, and are certainly the three you are most likely to encounter in your pre-statistics courses, if the topic comes up at all.

https://www.purplemath.com/modules/meanmode.htm

DevilsHaircut

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I have to agree with this. My best friend has been having breathing difficulties and was only tested yesterday having been waiting a full week.

Then he was told yesterday it could be 2 weeks to get the results. As he said himself, he could be dead within that time-frame if things deteriorate as he waits it out.

People in positions of influence seem to be jumping the queue.

The test is not the treatment (as Tony Holohan, Colm Henry etc. are blue in the face explaining).

The severity of your friend's symptoms would dictate whether he needs hospitalisation (regardless of his Covid 19 test result).

Loafing Oaf

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

Dream on...

tobefrank321

Deleted User wrote: »

Who is going to travel to Ireland, except for a very few remaining Irish citizens / residents? Who will then do their bit to help mitigate spread in just the same way as those already here. Or do you think that all new arrivals are going to spend 14 days running around the place spitting at people?

Lockdown should mean lockdown. It makes no sense to restrict travel within a country but allow people come in from hotspots like London and Paris unrestricted. That's not a lockdown. You are talking of a couple hundred people travelling in who are potentially going to cause a problem with new cases for the remaining 4.7 million. Really makes no sense.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Dream on...

LOL this is quite conservative too.

What do you think doomsday is it?

Loafing Oaf

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Lockdown should mean lockdown. It makes no sense to restrict travel within a country but allow people come in from hotspots like London and Paris unrestricted. That's not a lockdown. You are talking of a couple hundred people travelling in who are potentially going to cause a problem with new cases for the remaining 4.7 million. Really makes no sense.

Big problem is our back door in the north. Would it be possible to restrict travel between there and 'mainland Britain'?

murpho999

owlbethere wrote: »

I find this sad an ironic. If they stopped flights from the hotspot/s at the end of February and implemented other measures, we would be in a better position. Half the workforce probably wouldn't be shut down right now. Now, aviation has come to a halt along with a sizable portion of the countries workforce.

I really don't think it would have.

Let's take Italy as an example.

If Irish skiers (which I think is where a lot of infections here have come from) in Italy were denied flights home they would have traveled him via another route, such as Austria, France or Switzerland. They would not have simply stayed in Italy.

These people probably went to Italy, caught the virus, and came home before even the first death in Italy.

Trumps stopped European flights with little impact.

The virus was already in the community here before any concerns about Italy or Spain were apparant.

PixelTrawler

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

The creche bailout runs for 3 months from today. I’d be amazed if the creche’s reopen before July 1st. Would be great as we’ve two home full time now. But just can’t see it.

Away With The Fairies

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

Just the ignorance. This is why it's spreading.

What if one of her kids picked it up and not showed signs, and they're going about the place as if everything is fine. They should introduce fines for all the ignorance.

Away With The Fairies

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

Just the ignorance. This is why it's spreading.

What if one of her kids picked it up and not showed signs, and they're going about the place as if everything is fine. They should introduce fines for all the ignorance.

gabeeg

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

Sorry, but our testing has been so limited that it's very difficult to get a good picture of where we are with this crisis and when we'll see a peak and subsequent reduction.

When they eventually crank it up to an acceptable level we'll start to get an idea of how we're doing, and then we can start to speculate about getting back to normal.

Right now there's not a single person in the country with a clear picture of how this will pan out.

Yurt2

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

This post wouldn't have anything to do with the political party she is a member of would it?

No, ridiculous, absolutely not. You're a level headed guy that wouldn't seek to do such a thing.

All that fandango

Just a quick question hoping its ok to post in this thread. My usual prescription ran out a few days ago. If it was any other time I would go to the docs to get another script written out for it for another 6 months. I need this medication again by Friday. Do I still have to go to the doctors just to get him to write me a new script or can I just ask the pharmacy for the medication over the counter so I dont have to go to the doctors and risk catching? (Its the contaceptive pill btw Ive been on it for years so the pharmacy staff know me). Thanks.

tobefrank321

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Big problem is our back door in the north. Would it be possible to restrict travel between there and 'mainland Britain'?

Foster and the DUP need to be convinced of this. I think connectivity is limited enough at the moment from NI to the mainland. An airline went out of business recently and other airlines have grounded flights. Its a problem alright. We can't really control north-south travel too much. We can control who comes in on flights though and where they go. We're an island after all or so we've been told.

Rob A. Bank

pH wrote: »

The US does not have a centralised health system controlled by a government department that reports to the president. It's a complex system of private and state bodies with some federal oversight (FDA etc.)

So without 'grabbing' any power or doing anything you would consider authoritarian, what exactly should Trump have done and when?

In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. This was part of his lunatic effort to get rid of anything Obama had started.

Read the fourth and fifth paragraph here :- https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/

And BTW I Trump is evil incarnate.

Ger Roe

ITman88 wrote: »

A positive test won’t save his life, a ventilator will.
Everyone has been told if you have symptoms isolate, a positive test will make very little difference

To the individual yes, a test makes very little difference (would be good to know if you have had it and are now recovered, or are still at risk). But, tests were being done for public health reasons, to protect society - they are the trigger for contact tracing. If tests are not confirmed, tracing is not effective and we loose vital data on who where and how many are infected.

Having now reached this point, the only critical stats at this moment are ICU bed capacity and deaths.

The ship has sailed in terms of trying to estimate the total infection rate, because we do not have the trigger info (confirmed test) to commence the tracing process.

Is it time to tell those who are awaiting tests and are assuming they have it (as per instruction) to undertake contact tracing themselves and let people within their circle know? Up to now, that was not advised on the chance that the person awaiting the test was negative - can we still support that approach if we are now testing far less and finding more positive cases?

iamwhoiam

All that fandango wrote: »

Just a quick question hoping its ok to post in this thread. My usual prescription ran out a few days ago. If it was any other time I would go to the docs to get another script written out for it for another 6 months. I need this medication again by Friday. Do I still have to go to the doctors just to get him to write me a new script or can I just ask the pharmacy for the medication over the counter so I dont have to go to the doctors and risk catching? (Its the contaceptive pill btw Ive been on it for years so the pharmacy staff know me). Thanks.

Ring the GP ., they will write the prescription and hand it to you at the door .Or they can mail it to the chemist and you pick it up there

ricero

We are simply are not testing enough in this country.

Agressive testing should be a priority in preventing more deaths.

wakka12

So obviously there were many tens of thousands of cases in America a while before any of these tests confirmed that, the tests just putting a vague numeric estimate on it. And deaths have now gone from about 100 deaths two weeks ago to over 4000. So with such a volume of cases clearly existing before two weeks ago, does this mean there were also a lot of people dying of coronavirus in the US before two weeks ago too? How could that have been missed, dont they do tests/autopsies on people who die of infectious diseases?

Doctors room ghost

All that fandango wrote: »

Just a quick question hoping its ok to post in this thread. My usual prescription ran out a few days ago. If it was any other time I would go to the docs to get another script written out for it for another 6 months. I need this medication again by Friday. Do I still have to go to the doctors just to get him to write me a new script or can I just ask the pharmacy for the medication over the counter so I dont have to go to the doctors and risk catching? (Its the contaceptive pill btw Ive been on it for years so the pharmacy staff know me). Thanks.

Ring your surgery and the receptionist will have the prescription ready also ring the chemist and they will have meds ready if it’s a regular script.
Collect prescription then and put in envelope with money and give it to pharmacist.
They won’t dispense prescription meds without prescription

nacho libre

gabeeg wrote: »

Sorry, but our testing has been so limited that it's very difficult to get a good picture of where we are with this crisis and when we'll see a peak and subsequent reduction.

When they eventually crank it up to an acceptable level we'll start to get an idea of how we're doing, and then we can start to speculate about getting back to normal.

Right now there's not a single person in the country with a clear picture of how this will pan out.

So the BBC report about cases going down from 33 per cent to 15 per cent is misleading because the testing in this country is not adequate?

Loafing Oaf

Pheonix10 wrote: »

LOL this is quite conservative too.

What do you think doomsday is it?

Can't see any lifting of restrictions until widespread testing has confirmed the number of new cases has fallen to 'manageable levels', particularly as the uber-cautious Micheal Martin is likely to be running the show soon...

paw patrol

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Dream on...

I think he makes a fair point , but we'll be back to normal before those dates

We can't afford the current situation and people will get restless. The common good mantra will only work so long before public order will breakdown.
Lives need to be lived and people will only be content to live on 350e for so long

Pheonix10 wrote: »

LOL this is quite conservative too.

What do you think doomsday is it?

voluntary

ricero wrote: »

We are simply are not testing enough in this country.

Agressive testing should be a priority in preventing more deaths.

The gov/HSE is unable to secure more tests. HSE said last night that they're struggling with the shortage of tests. Hence only 1500 done per day last week.

scamalert

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

at least someone not hysteric or delusional totally agree end of April should see us back to slow re-open and some sort of normalcy.


for those who ask why end of April, its simple 2 weeks now is more the enough that has been done, and if theres no manageable decline after next 2 weeks its pointless to put any more restrictions in place as it will just irritate people and seriously impact where employment income is concerned for most.

is_that_so

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Can't see any lifting of restrictions until widespread testing has confirmed the number of new cases has fallen to 'manageable levels', particularly as the uber-cautious Micheal Martin is likely to be running the show soon...

No, the real Taoiseach will be the Svengali-like character of Tony Holohan!

nacho libre

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Lockdown should mean lockdown. It makes no sense to restrict travel within a country but allow people come in from hotspots like London and Paris unrestricted. That's not a lockdown. You are talking of a couple hundred people travelling in who are potentially going to cause a problem with new cases for the remaining 4.7 million. Really makes no sense.

In Australia those who come back into the country must self-isolate in a hotel for 14 days. We should have that here when restrictions ease, so we don't have the same problem Hong Kong had when they lifted restrictions on travel.

Maggie Benson

All that fandango wrote: »

Just a quick question hoping its ok to post in this thread. My usual prescription ran out a few days ago. If it was any other time I would go to the docs to get another script written out for it for another 6 months. I need this medication again by Friday. Do I still have to go to the doctors just to get him to write me a new script or can I just ask the pharmacy for the medication over the counter so I dont have to go to the doctors and risk catching? (Its the contaceptive pill btw Ive been on it for years so the pharmacy staff know me). Thanks.

Just phone the Doctor and they can email your prescription to the pharmacy.

Talisman

JaimeLannister wrote: »

Very good info in that HSE report. Anyone know if they publish it daily?

Yes.

Look under the "Daily COVID-19 surveillance reports" heading on this page:

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/

quokula

wakka12 wrote: »

So obviously there were many tens of thousands of cases in America a while before any of these tests confirmed that, the tests just putting a vague numeric estimate on it. And deaths have now gone from about 100 deaths two weeks ago to over 4000. So with such a volume of cases clearly existing before two weeks ago, does this mean there were also a lot of people dying of coronavirus in the US before two weeks ago too? How could that have been missed, dont they do tests/autopsies on people who die of infectious diseases?

When my Grandad died a couple of years ago, he was in his late 80s, caught some bug going around, ended up in hospital with pneumonia, and died a week later. A tragedy for us but business as usual for a hospital, nobody would ever consider an autopsy for such a case.

Statistics like annual flu deaths are calculated through models and estimation - at a very simplified level, you subtract death rate outside of flu season from death rate during flu season, to get deaths caused by flu. It's not at all routine to actually test for it when people have died because it's such a common thing.

wakka12

Astoundingly little testing being done in many developing countries

Algeria 44 deaths and just over 700 cases
Morocco 36 deaths and just 640 cases
Egypt 46 deaths and just 700 cases
Indonesia 157 deaths and just 1670 cases

Given the very young average of these countries there should be at least 40,000 cases between them based on the number of deaths recorded. So at least 95% of cases being missed. And it does matter because if there are no cases being confirmed it means there are no contacts being traced and it only gets worse from there

Palmach

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Yeahhh...... That's not how it works.:rolleyes:

Yeah it is. A small cabal will always want more power when they have free reign. Many countries have less restrictions than us and many have more. I think we have the balance right. The civil service is hard wired to think or more and more rules. Once liberties are taken away they are slow to be returned. A point lost on the army of cretins on social media looking for their freedoms to be taken away.

Palmach

scamalert wrote: »

at least someone not hysteric or delusional totally agree end of April should see us back to slow re-open and some sort of normalcy.


for those who ask why end of April, its simple 2 weeks now is more the enough that has been done, and if theres no manageable decline after next 2 weeks its pointless to put any more restrictions in place as it will just irritate people and seriously impact where employment income is concerned for most.

Good post.

is_that_so

More problems with supply chains and they can't fly in workers from their normal source- Nepal. Guardian feed @11.21

The world’s biggest medical glove manufacturer in Malaysia is battling with a shortage of workers as it tries to meet a huge surge in demand, with countries running low on personal protective equipment stocks due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rob A. Bank

murpho999 wrote: »

I really don't think it would have.

Let's take Italy as an example.

If Irish skiers (which I think is where a lot of infections here have come from) in Italy were denied flights home they would have traveled him via another route, such as Austria, France or Switzerland. They would not have simply stayed in Italy.

These people probably went to Italy, caught the virus, and came home before even the first death in Italy.

Trumps stopped European flights with little impact.

The virus was already in the community here before any concerns about Italy or Spain were apparant.

If everyone who arrived was quarantined at the airport for 14 days there would have been no significant spread here. Allowing new arrivals to spend their 'self isolation' with their families is just a recipe for further spread at home.

Trying to justify an 'open door' policy now is just plain reckless with the public's health, no matter how badly we have managed it in the past

weldoninhio

Yurt! wrote: »

This post wouldn't have anything to do with the political party she is a member of would it?

No, ridiculous, absolutely not. You're a level headed guy that wouldn't seek to do such a thing.

I've zero political affiliation.

I'd no idea what party she was from until i went back on there to get her name, all i'd seen was that she was a TD, her username is Jennifer Whitmore TD, no mention of any party. SD's got a vote from me in the last election. Their candidate was one of the only ones that knocked on my door and seemed like a decent and genuine lad.

Gynoid

wakka12 wrote: »

So obviously there were many tens of thousands of cases in America a while before any of these tests confirmed that, the tests just putting a vague numeric estimate on it. And deaths have now gone from about 100 deaths two weeks ago to over 4000. So with such a volume of cases clearly existing before two weeks ago, does this mean there were also a lot of people dying of coronavirus in the US before two weeks ago too? How could that have been missed, dont they do tests/autopsies on people who die of infectious diseases?

I think the main thing that could not be missed is ICU systems overwhelm.
Deaths could be missed for a while because ...well...people are always dying.
A novel virus could be missed for a while, because there are so many of the blighters, and a fair number seem to have mild to no symptoms.
It is the reports from ICUs that impact my analysis of what the bloody hell could be going on.
Does one normally see reports from widely distant lands of so many struggling to breathe, people on ventilators, ICU doctors gasping that they are overwhelmed and exhausted, people waiting prone on corridors, refrigerated trucks, etc...?
Not that I can remember. Except post catastrophe like tsunami or earthquake etc.

I don't know. Does anyone remember ICU overwhelm stories like the ones being reported?

DevilsHaircut

Ger Roe wrote: »

To the individual yes, a test makes very little difference (would be good to know if you have had it and are now recovered, or are still at risk). But, tests were being done for public health reasons, to protect society - they are the trigger for contact tracing. If tests are not confirmed, tracing is not effective and we loose vital data on who where and how many are infected.

Having now reached this point, the only critical stats at this moment are ICU bed capacity and deaths.

The ship has sailed in terms of trying to estimate the total infection rate, because we do not have the trigger info (confirmed test) to commence the tracing process.

Is it time to tell those who are awaiting tests and are assuming they have it (as per instruction) to undertake contact tracing themselves and let people within their circle know? Up to now, that was not advised on the chance that the person awaiting the test was negative - can we still support that approach if we are now testing far less and finding more positive cases?

Contact tracing is now thankfully less important as the average number of contacts is 3 (see CMO briefings).

These 3 people are mostly the people that patients live with (who would be expected to get infected anyway, so identifying them is not very important from the public health perspective).

This constant emphasis on testing delays is really obscuring the important message on maximum social distancing.

is_that_so

Greece may now be seeing the pressure of extended lockdown. Guardian feed @ 11.28.

As Greece enters its third week since restrictive measures were first imposed to combat the spread of coronavirus, there is mounting concern that fatigue is setting in amid signs of people beginning to flout the policies.

CrabRevolution

IspeakcozIcan wrote: »

Testing is really descending into a complete mess now. This is terrible. Nursing home resident was tested on 23 March and no results received, subsequently died last night and still don't know whether they were positive or negative.

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1245272347101343745

I won't excuse the testing delays, but I'm not sure what the testing has to do with that person's death. If they were sick enough to die and it was in their best interests they'd be brought to hospital whether there was a positive Covid-19 test or not.

It's not like we've stopped treating diseases like pneumonia and flu in the meantime.

wakka12

is_that_so wrote: »

Greece may now be seeing the pressure of extended lockdown. Guardian feed @ 11.28.

Going by reports of most countries a full lockdown extending beyond 3-4 weeks seems to start to fail

Ethereal Cereal

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

Yea, I'd agree with most of this, its a bit conservative but I would say we will be lucky if we end up only with these restrictions. Its going to be a long long time before we're all crowded into bars and clubs again.

I'm not sure about schools though. I think with it being so close to the end of term, they might keep them shut, and try finish off the leaving cert year and exams over summer months, on a remote learning basis. Creche's available for health care staff only.

Also, this reply made me laugh, probably for the wrong reasons

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Dream on...

is_that_so

wakka12 wrote: »

Going by reports of most countries a full lockdown extending beyond 3-4 weeks seems to start to fail

Yeah, this was mentioned very early on in the briefings and is recognised as a limit. We might see some of that in the later part of April if we are still under the same restrictions.

MadYaker

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

If everyone who arrived was quarantined at the airport for 14 days there would have been no significant spread here. Allowing new arrivals to spend their 'self isolation' with their families is just a recipe for further spread at home.

Trying to justify an 'open door' policy now is just plain reckless with the public's health, no matter how badly we have managed it in the past

how many people generally arrive in Dublin every day before this kicked off? Must be tens of thousands. Where would we quarantine them all for 2 weeks? It’s not practical. No country on earth did this.