CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

caveat emptor

whiskeyman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexralph/status/1245257988979515393?s=19

Not an April fools!!

The company that ruined millions of lungs worldwide may be working to save them...

That is crazy. I thought that was the worst April fools joke ever. Found this about how they developed ebola vaccine. Strange times.

https://time.com/3457472/see-how-ebola-drugs-grow-in-tobacco-leaves/

Akabusi

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Is that official advice?

Yes, I developed symptoms on the 15th March and I'm symptom free for the last 9 days. I can therefore leave the house to buy groceries, which I plan to do tomorrow. Up till now we have been getting our food delivered.

Nollog

devnull wrote: »

Absolutely scandalous revelations about the UK on Sky News now from Labour MP Peter Kyle.

Care homes are being limited to 5 tests per care home and over 75s who have coronavirus have been told they will not admitted to hospital when they test positive for the virus.

In addition in one care home a number of their residents have been offered do not resuscitate orders and 16 residents have signed them which is happening - apparently these offers are happening en-masse rather than in a thoughtful and caring setting with families.

It does seem that these people are essentially having their lives written off - no wonder the government don't want to include care home deaths and are only reporting hospital death figures!

We were explained this a month back, it's why theyve been saying "triage" https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage
This is why we're not coughing on our parents/grandparents/inferm

devnull

whiskeyman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexralph/status/1245257988979515393?s=19

Not an April fools!!

The company that ruined millions of lungs worldwide may be working to save them...

Think about it logically, BAT's best customers are their heavy smoking addicts, which are most likely to have lung conditions which puts them at risk of dying.

If a lot of heavy smoking addicts die it will be bad for business, hence a vaccine is top priority for them.

GooglePlus

Can't sell cigarettes to the dead, I suppose. A lot of these people kicking the bucket are smokers.

Akrasia

bodhrandude wrote: »

Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

That has to be the most irresponsible article I have seen in a very long time. Its trying to spread a rumour that will cause panic buying of alcohol and could cause crowding in shops that could end up costing lives.

Utterly shameful

Professor Moriarty

Akabusi wrote: »

Yes, I developed symptoms on the 15th March and I'm symptom free for the last 9 days. I can therefore leave the house to buy groceries, which I plan to do tomorrow. Up till now we have been getting our food delivered.

Not having a go, just interested. Were you diagnosed? Did your doctor say you were now not infectious or couldn't be reinfected?

Inquitus

whiskeyman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/alexralph/status/1245257988979515393?s=19

Not an April fools!!

The company that ruined millions of lungs worldwide may be working to save them...

Dead smokers can't smoke!

GooglePlus

Inquitus wrote: »

Dead smokers can't smoke!

Unless they bring in an incineration law.

babybuilder

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

Not a hope

Talisman

MadYaker wrote: »

Does anyone know what Tony Holohan (hse chief) means when he says they want to turn it from a community infection to a household one? I heard that in the presser last night.

Before the latest measures, it was primarily spread around communities. Now if people isolate in their homes, the infected people can only infect those they share a home with and in theory the virus will burn out in a few weeks.

Hospitals will only have to deal with extreme cases and should not become overloaded.

bmcc10

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan/japan-on-the-brink-as-it-struggles-to-hold-back-coronavirus-idUSKBN21I3LX?utm_source=reddit.com
Japanese medics increasingly worried about potential epidemic in Tokyo

There has been a huge shift here past few days. Coincidently it's all after the cancellation of the Olympics.

DevilsHaircut

Ger Roe wrote: »

Yes, but tens of thousands of three people groups is still a lot of people that we don't know about. I know it's less of a concern, but not ideal by any means and this whole situation started off with just one person somewhere in China.

Knowing about them is not very important now as long as they isolate with the suspected case, as they are supposed to do.

Those three-people groups will not be spreading to many other people, as their contacts will also be limited to mainly the people they live with (i.e. the same three people).

Doctors room ghost

I don’t know how anyone in Ireland can smoke these days with the price of the fcukers.14 euro for 20 smokes.70 fcukin cent a piece.
That’s an expensive hobby and the same ones complaining they have no money then.
God be with the days when you got your 10 fageens for 2 pound or even before it a single and a match for 10pence

0gac3yjefb5sv7

babybuilder wrote: »

Not a hope

Any idea why or just want to pretend this will go on forever?

GooglePlus

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Any idea why or just want to pretend this will go on forever?

Us flattening the curve will push our peak out beyond your projections.

If we had done nothing at all, this would all be over a lot quicker but at a cost of thousands of lives.

Plus, once restrictions are eased, cases will rise again and we'll have a second peak, a third even and on until we have herd immunity or a vaccine.

We have a lot in front of us until things go back to as they were.

Ficheall

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Any idea why or just want to pretend this will go on forever?

Any idea why cases will peak in two weeks?

Gentleman Off The Pitch

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah shows how important physical distancing is within the community. Again credit where it is due offers much more insight to what is going on. Fair play to "EPI Team" in hse.

One thing from that report. Of the deaths thus far 90% of deaths have been in 65+.

However ICU admissions much less skewed to older ages so any age can end up there. Hopefully they all recover.




Well worth a read for everyone on here.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2031.03.2020v1-%20website%20version.pdf

Very interesting. Unless I'm mistaken, 57% (almost 3 in every 5) of people in the 65+ age bracket who are confirmed to have covid-19 need go to hospital with 13.4% (over 1 in 8 patients) of that hospitalised group needing ICU. Easy to see how this could strain things

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Ficheall wrote: »

Any idea why cases will peak in two weeks?

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/coronavirus-ireland-peak-hse-latest-18002433

Ashleigh1986

I live near one of the test centres in galway .
The numbers attending to be tested has plummeted to just a handful per day .
It's obvious there's a major backlog in actual tests that have been done BUT THE DELAY IS IN THE LABS THAT ARE DOING THE SAMPLES .
Does anyone know how many people are actually processing the samples ???
What's the point of doing tests if they results cannot be returned in a 3 day period.
What expertise is required to carry out these tests ?
Why aren't more people been recruited / shifted form certain work to speed up this process ?

Ashleigh1986

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

I live near one of the test centres in galway .
The numbers attending to be tested has plummeted to just a handful per day .
It's obvious there's a major backlog in actual tests that have been done BUT THE DELAY IS IN THE LABS THAT ARE DOING THE SAMPLES .
Does anyone know how many people are actually processing the samples ???
What's the point of doing tests if they results cannot be returned in a 3 day period.
What expertise is required to carry out these tests ?
Why aren't more people been recruited / shifted form certain work to speed up this process ?

Its not about the people. It's about the availability of the requisite chemicals / agents. And is an international supply problem

GooglePlus

Pheonix10 wrote: »

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/coronavirus-ireland-peak-hse-latest-18002433

This was then dismissed as it was too early to tell.

Akabusi

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Not having a go, just interested. Were you diagnosed? Did your doctor say you were now not infectious or couldn't be reinfected?

No problem, when the HSE rang me with my result, they asked me when i last had any of the symptoms. As I had been clear for 8 days when they rang they said I was now free to stop self isolating. I mentioned my sons symptoms and the advice was that the rest of the family enter a new two week self isolation. We all have been house bound since the 15th March. I have one of the masks I got when being tested, i'll be wearing this in the supermarket. Also just before i leave I will change into newly cleaned clothes before leaving the house for fear of the virus being on what I'm wearing and I bring it out with me.

An Ciarraioch

124 ICU admissions up to yesterday, according to RTE, which would be an increase of 11 in 2 days - is the pace of new admissions slowing?

tobefrank321

Deleted User wrote: »

Its not about the people. It's about the availability of the requisite chemicals / agents. And is an international supply problem

Which is exactly why reduced new case numbers across Europe have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

It could be because of restrictions. Equally it could be because of the reagents supply issues you mention.

We simply don't know.

Cue the usual suspects saying "you are a doom-monger".

Professor Moriarty

Akabusi wrote: »

No problem, when the HSE rang me with my result, they asked me when i last had any of the symptoms. As I had been clear for 8 days when they rang they said I was now free to stop self isolating. I mentioned my sons symptoms and the advice was that the rest of the family enter a new two week self isolation. We all have been house bound since the 15th March. I have one of the masks I got when being tested, i'll be wearing this in the supermarket. Also just before i leave I will change into newly cleaned clothes before leaving the house for fear of the virus being on what I'm wearing and I bring it out with me.

Good stuff. Well done.

babybuilder

babybuilder wrote: »

Not a hope

I think its entirely realistic. Cannot go on forever with restrictions at this level, but there will be some variable level of restrictions for 12 months

Valhallapt

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

I live near one of the test centres in galway .
The numbers attending to be tested has plummeted to just a handful per day .
It's obvious there's a major backlog in actual tests that have been done BUT THE DELAY IS IN THE LABS THAT ARE DOING THE SAMPLES .
Does anyone know how many people are actually processing the samples ???
What's the point of doing tests if they results cannot be returned in a 3 day period.
What expertise is required to carry out these tests ?
Why aren't more people been recruited / shifted form certain work to speed up this process ?

I'd be surprised if there isn't now spare capacity in china for testing, seeing as their peak is over, could we put some swabs on the next flight to Beijing to be tested?

Allinall

GooglePlus wrote: »

This was then dismissed as it was too early to tell.

Dismissed by who?

cameramonkey

Wombatman wrote: »

Riddle me this one.

Over the last 5 days we have had 302,294,200,295 and 325 confirmed cases. Averages to about 300 cases a day.

If the positivity rate is 15% then 300 must be 15% of the number of completed tests over the same period, right. This would require a testing capacity of 2000 completions per day.

They have stated they can only complete 1500 a day due to equipment shortfall, so how are these numbers possible?

I'm not getting this from anywhere else. It's just simple math, my level.

Would you agree that if we had the capacity to test more we would be seeing more confirmed cases? I would suggest the answer has to be yes.

We won't get big confirmed case numbers because we can't. It has been suggested that we are flattening the curve. I would suggest the reason for this is we have reached a ceiling of confirmed cases, around 300, due to the lab test bottleneck.

Over the last week they completed 1745 test per day on average. At the press conference they said they were completing 1500 per day. If they were having difficulty getting testing equipment then maybe they are now testing 1500 per day but earlier in the week were testing more per day maybe 2000 per day or more. The 1745 average per day is the correct number.

easypazz

babybuilder wrote: »

Not a hope

Why not?

The only thing I can't see is primary schools going back, then only the leaving cert. sits.

What is your expected timeline?

nacho libre

ITman88 wrote: »

Well will relax restrictions on the 12th of April, from then maintain social distance etc, no way the 2km restriction from your home will be adhered to much longer.
Social distance will stay for a while, pubs and restaurants will need to try and reopen late April and send kids to school, life must go on

I think you are being some what optimistic about schools re-opening by end of April, unless the number of cases is close to zero. I don't see that as being a realistic proposition.

tobefrank321

Valhallapt wrote: »

I'd be surprised if there isn't now spare capacity in china for testing, seeing as their peak is over, could we put some swabs on the next flight to Beijing to be tested?

That's actually not a bad idea.

GooglePlus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think its entirely realistic. Cannot go on forever with restrictions at this level, but there will be some variable level of restrictions for 12 months

These restrictions sound great on paper but I was on lower Baggot St. yesterday and the place was bustling.

Went for a walk yesterday evening to Herbert Park and there was loads out. A Garda van was driving around the park but no interventions at all. Loads in threes and fours out kicking ball or just hanging out.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I know this has been debated time and time again but the question was asked of Gavan Reilly on Twitter if the ICU numbers are current or total and this was his reply. He is usually extremely reliable when it comes to stats amongst other things so it does look like it's the total through since the start not the current as some have reported and some on here insist it as being.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1245268916160606208?s=19

Thanks for posting this as it’s what I’ve been arguing is the case for days.

GooglePlus

Allinall wrote: »

Dismissed by who?

Prof. Philip Nolan

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I know this has been debated time and time again but the question was asked of Gavan Reilly on Twitter if the ICU numbers are current or total and this was his reply. He is usually extremely reliable when it comes to stats amongst other things so it does look like it's the total through since the start not the current as some have reported and some on here insist it as being.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1245268916160606208?s=19

Thanks for posting this as it’s what I’ve been arguing is the case for days.

I await the apologies from a number of posters.

Bob24

nacho libre wrote: »

I think you are being some what optimistic about schools re-opening by end of April, unless the number of cases is close to zero. I don't see that as being a realistic proposition.

Yeah IMO be mid-May to early June before opening then again becomes realistic.

And they the question will be what can be achieved before the summer holiday (if the health situation allows for it, I’d actually be in favour of delaying the start of the summer holiday so that something meaningful can be achieved once they reopen, but I realise this wouldn’t be very popular with teachers nor with students :-)).

Roger_007

GooglePlus wrote: »

Can't sell cigarettes to the dead, I suppose. A lot of these people kicking the bucket are smokers.

According to all the health information we have had to date, smokers die 15 years younger than average. So very few of them will get to the age where most of the deaths from Covid are concentrated.
So, it’s unlikely that many of them are/were smokers.

SuperTortoise

wakka12 wrote: »

Going by reports of most countries a full lockdown extending beyond 3-4 weeks seems to start to fail

I think when people see close to 1000 people die per day as we see in Italy and Spain it might re-focus their thoughts.


That's another positive aspect of testing as much as possible, when we see a couple of hundred positive tests per day people might think sure we're grand , nothing to worry about, when in fact the true number is probably closer to 10 times that ammount.

stephenjmcd

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

Thanks for posting this as it’s what I’ve been arguing is the case for days.

No bother but just look at the rest of the replies first since I posted it. Seems to still be a bit of confusion.

Like I said he is usually fairly accurate but given the way the figures are presented theres still some confusion, nobody seems to get a straight answer.

Allinall

GooglePlus wrote: »

Prof. Philip Nolan

I'd take his predictions with a large pinch of salt.

https://www.rsvplive.ie/news/irish-news/professor-philip-nolan-hints-could-21785071

GooglePlus

Roger_007 wrote: »

According to all the health information we have had to date, smokers die 15 years younger than average. So very few of them will get to the age where most of the deaths from Covid are concentrated.
So, it’s unlikely that many of them are/were smokers.

That would make the average age of death for a smoker 65, which is prime pickings for Covid-19, especially if you're a smoker.

Plenty of smokers living past that as well I'm sure.

BanditLuke

GooglePlus wrote: »

These restrictions sound great on paper but I was on lower Baggot St. yesterday and the place was bustling.

Went for a walk yesterday evening to Herbert Park and there was loads out. A Garda van was driving around the park but no interventions at all. Loads in threes and fours out kicking ball or just hanging out.

A lot of self entitled sorts around that location so no surprise really.

An Ciarraioch

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

Thanks for posting this as it’s what I’ve been arguing is the case for days.

I await the apologies from a number of posters.

The only consolation is that it suggests the system is under less pressure than might have been the case.

Away With The Fairies

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Which is exactly why reduced new case numbers across Europe have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

It could be because of restrictions. Equally it could be because of the reagents supply issues you mention.

We simply don't know.

Cue the usual suspects saying "you are a doom-monger".

I hope people don't think we're doing well because we're not.

MrMusician18

gabeeg wrote: »

Or the ability.

This insistence that any criticism levelled at the gov is simply for political point scoring is dull as ****.

If they were well made criticisms you'd have a point, but they are not.

But when the criticism consists of petty name calling, like "Varadkardashian" (hilarious :rolleyes: ) it's hard not to determine that the commentary is based entirely on a personal dislike of the politicians, parties and civil authorities.

Blanco100

Allinall wrote: »

I'd take his predictions with a large pinch of salt.

https://www.rsvplive.ie/news/irish-news/professor-philip-nolan-hints-could-21785071

Jesus that article is garbage. Success because its 295 cases instead of 3000. How can you have 3000 cases when testing is ****.

Know someone in hospital with it, zero contact tracing done as of this morning.

The press conferences every evening are a PR exercise.

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The only consolation is that it suggests the system is under less pressure than might have been the case.

This is why I have been highlighting it as the number in ICU will be less, possibly much less than the numbers quoted.

They should be reporting the current figure but they are not.

Doctors room ghost

Valhallapt wrote: »

I'd be surprised if there isn't now spare capacity in china for testing, seeing as their peak is over, could we put some swabs on the next flight to Beijing to be tested?

I wouldn’t trust them to tell you the time of day not to mind test results.