CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

easypazz

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't get the ambiguity around the numbers admitted to ICU.

Most other countries are upfront about the numbers who are actually in and have been admitted to ICU over the previous 24 hours.

Giving a cumulative figure for the whole COVID-19 period gives zero context and is irrelevant to the here and now.

Yeah imagine trying to run a hotel like that.

What we need is, how many are checked in this afternoon, ie were here since yesterday and won't be checked out before tomorrow.

How many beds are in the system (this will vary as you need to exclude other ICU patients)

How many checked out today

How many of those that checked out died

How many checked in today

weisses

otnomart wrote: »

the Netherlands are still going for herd immunity:

Lockdown unnecessary - says health agency
"as long as people stick to the current measures - keep 1.5 meters apart, don't go outside if you're sick, wash your hands regularly, and avoid touching your face. "
https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/01/covid-19-curve-flattening-lockdown-unnecessary-says-health-agency

this with:

1,152 patients currently treated in ICUs

total number of deaths is now 1,173

Stop spouting nonsense ... The country is effectively in a lockdown

RebelButtMunch

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We have another week until the ICUs reach optimal capacity. What then?

Bearing in mind a vaccine is at least a year away.

I think we'll end up in a situation where, when we are happy with say a 2 or 3 week period of sustained ICU headroom, we'll relax the lock down and see what happens. If we use up the head room, we'll lock down again.

Until a vaccine comes along, the vulnerable are in permanently lockdown. Crap for them.

easypazz

threeball wrote: »

Apparently you can also spread the disease for up to 8 days after symptoms subside.

Yet in the UK Charles and BoJo were both out of isolation 7 days after diagnosis.

Kermit.de.frog

Oxford Economics wrote: »

The cumulative figures does give contract to the here and now. It allows us to understand the likelihood of being admitted to ICU if you contract the virus. It would also be useful to have the figures for the people currently in ICU.

It may be useful for policy setters within the HSE.

It's of no value at all to the public. What the public wants and has a right to know is the pressure right now.

We don't know how many people are in ICU right now.

Every other country is able to provide snapshot figures on ICU. There is a holding back of information in this country on several levels compared to our peers.

easypazz

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We have another week until the ICUs reach optimal capacity. What then?

Doctors will triage people on chances of survival, the weakest will be sedated and left to die or survive without a lot of help.

EDit

563 new deaths in UK today. Horrific numbers.

Down9194

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't get the ambiguity around the numbers admitted to ICU.

Most other countries are upfront about the numbers who are actually in and have been admitted to ICU over the previous 24 hours.

Giving a cumulative figure for the whole COVID-19 period gives zero context and is irrelevant to the here and now.

It may be irrelevant but I think they were playing with numbers to keep people away from hospital and perhaps to put pressure on private hospitals as this has only come to light after private hospital signed up

weisses

fullstop wrote: »

Cue pandemonium in here when it hasn’t started and the clock says 5:31pm. “How hard is it to start on time ffs”.

Why cant they do it on a set time every day??

cameramonkey

kingshankly wrote: »

This day next week Uk will have some scary figures

563 dead today pretty big jump.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news

Kermit.de.frog

Naggdefy wrote: »

If the press conference (I can't bring myself to call it 'presser' it's like knobs who call Croke Park 'Croker') starts at 5.30 sharp, Ronan is after Tony's job

I betya the German press conference starts on time

Will a journalist please ask these questions...

How many are in ICU right now as of today? Why have you not been providing these figures? Will you provide these figures from now on like other countries?

They never seem to ask these questions.

youreadthat

EDit wrote: »

563 new deaths in UK today. Horrific numbers.

Over 600,000 people die in the UK every year.

Strazdas

Ger Roe wrote: »

Clarification needed there with that statement - do you spread it because you are still affected with the virus, or if you come in contact with it from another source, you can pick it up and deposit it, just like anyone else?

I would hope it's the latter and not that you become a super spreader after you clear the symptoms of infection.

If you have fully recovered from the virus, then you cannot spread it, as it is no longer in your system.

tobefrank321

Deleted User wrote: »

Dumb question. If you get Covid-19 and have recovered can you still spread the virus via hands etc.?

Unfortunately yes. If you shake hands with someone after for example putting your hand on a surface where its present or touching your face, then kissing someone, and so on. Continue to wash your hands regularly, avoid handshakes and the likes. Basically act like you still have it. Good hygiene is required by all.

gabeeg

youreadthat wrote: »

Over 600,000 people die in the UK every year.

And this year it's going to be much higher

what's your point?

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We have another week until the ICUs reach optimal capacity. What then?

Bearing in mind a vaccine is at least a year away.

Yes, a vaccine is probably a year away, but hopefully before that we will have a stop gap solution in the form of antiviral drugs etc to mitigate symptoms & cut the numbers needed to go into ICU.

spookwoman

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Will a journalist please ask these questions...

How many are in ICU right now as of today? Why have you not been providing these figures? Will you provide these figures from now on like other countries?

They never seem to ask these questions.

Any time they have asked for numbers for a lot f things the usual answer was I don't have them

fritzelly

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

Yes, look at the latest update with confirmation directly from the HSE.

They are contradicting themselves and between departments

https://mobile.twitter.com/IDSIreland/status/1245278654164283396

EDit

youreadthat wrote: »

Over 600,000 people die in the UK every year.

So, what’s your point? That those 563 deaths don’t matter?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Dumb question. If you get Covid-19 and have recovered can you still spread the virus via hands etc.?

You can pick up droplets from surfaces / other people and transport else where, that's why if you've had it, no mask required, but gloves / hand washing still very important

Strazdas

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Unfortunately yes. If you shake hands with someone after for example putting your hand on a surface where its present or touching your face, then kissing someone, and so on. Continue to wash your hands regularly, avoid handshakes and the likes. Basically act like you still have it. Good hygiene is required by all.

I think the poster is asking if they can still transmit the virus from internally, if they have already recovered (and the answer is no, as the virus is no longer in their system).

cameramonkey

fritzelly wrote: »

They are contradicting themselves and between departments

https://mobile.twitter.com/IDSIreland/status/1245278654164283396

it is pretty unbelievable that after a few weeks of this the HSE cannot present coherent figures. they are either being deliberately obstructive or are incompetent.

wadacrack

My Daily routine:

7 am Wake UP Breakfast.

7:30 AM Coronavirus China/Asia analysis

11:00 AM Exercise

1:00 PM Lunch

2:00 UK updates

3-5 PM Coronavirus research

5PM: Italy updates

5:45 PM Irish updates

9:00 PM USA/Trump Speech

10:30 PM Look at the World wide numbers

11PM Sleep

tobefrank321

cameramonkey wrote: »

We do not know when the ICUs will reach optimal capacity, that is guess work on your part.

Its a reasonable estimate based on daily numbers going into ICU.

And bearing in mind ICU is also required for other conditions.

Cork Boy 53

easypazz wrote: »

Yet in the UK Charles and BoJo were both out of isolation 7 days after diagnosis.

Johnson is still in isolation or should be.

Martina1991

cameramonkey wrote:

In a few of your posts you relayed incorrect testing numbers, they always erred on the exaggerated figures that were being spun by the HSE and others.

I always posted approximate figures. I always denoted that by putting ~ in front of them.

Your whole stand point is that exact figures weren't being reported but you're having a go at me for not knowing exact numbers.

cameramonkey wrote:

I cant remember your exact words but you said something to the effect that RTE had reported that about 5,000 tests are being carried out a day in labs,

cameramonkey wrote:

I don't think you supported that with any link but you posted it anyway. If you are to remain credible I think its a good idea to check your sources. You say you are involved in science surely you should be aware that checking facts is crucial, you could call it scientific even.

You're putting words in my mouth and twisting it.

Prove it.

Naggdefy

youreadthat wrote: »

Over 600,000 people die in the UK every year.

So 1,640 approx daily. 563 over and above that is shocking.

Imagine a plane crashed or a ship sank with that number killed. And just one day and replicated all over the world..

devnull

Steep acceleration for the UK at this point, catching the other worms after being behind.

spookwoman

The other problem as IDS Ireland said is the amount of time patients stay in ICU
https://twitter.com/IDSIreland/status/1245303054649503746?s=20

fritzelly

cameramonkey wrote: »

it is pretty unbelievable that after a few weeks of this the HSE cannot present coherent figures. they are either being deliberately obstructive or are incompetent.

A few days ago Leo said ICU would be full within a few days (was he getting confused over the number) , that wouldn't make sense if cumulative unless no-one has left ICU which is unlikely thru recoveries/deaths

ITman88

Naggdefy wrote: »

So 1,640 approx daily. 563 over and above that is shocking.

Imagine a plane crashed or a ship sank with that number killed. And just one day and replicated all over the world..

The comment 563 over is completely inaccurate, and many poster are posting similar inaccurate figures

DOCARCH

devnull wrote: »

Steep acceleration for the UK at this point, catching the other worms after being behind.

The UK and US are on scary trajectories!

Cork Boy 53

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Johnson is still in isolation or should be.

guidance from HSE as far as I know is you can come out of isolation once 5 days without fever and 2 without symptoms. 14 days is only if you are isolating because of contact with confirmed / suspected case

EDit

Has anyone seen any medical/scientific articles showing evidence of post-infection immunity for COVID19-19?

I did a google search, but all I can find is lots of articles in the lay press just stating that you will get immunity. Surely now that China (and other countries) have a substation number of recovery they should be able to definitively show whether people have immunity or not

political analyst

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-some-people-still-dont-grasp-the-severity-of-the-current-crisis-and-their-role-within-it/

The woman who was sitting alone on a bench beside the pond was told by the bobby to move along. But she wasn't breaching the distance rule and she had no signs of illness. Some of the English police forces having been taking unnecessary action in response to the outbreak, i.e. the use of drones to tell people in public parks to go home.

Naggdefy

ITman88 wrote: »

The comment 563 over is completely inaccurate, and many poster are posting similar inaccurate figures

Why so? Are you saying a big percentage of the 563 were going to die today anyway?

Just Saying

Are UK figures still hospital deaths only?

I read somewhere that up to 20/03 the deaths had been underestimated by 24% as deaths outside hospitals had not been included...

Cork Boy 53

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Will a journalist please ask these questions...

How many are in ICU right now as of today? Why have you not been providing these figures? Will you provide these figures from now on like other countries?

They never seem to ask these questions.

They do but the HSE have not been providing clear answers. Maybe the deputy CMO will do so today but I wouldn`t bet on it.

Gentleman Off The Pitch

DOCARCH wrote: »

The UK and US are on scary trajectories!

The UK death figures are only for those hospitalised, is that the same with other countries?

Edit: I see Just Saying asked the same thing too above

Naggdefy

ITman88 wrote: »

The comment 563 over is completely inaccurate, and many poster are posting similar inaccurate figures

Infact many will die of other causes because health services are so stretched with caring for ICU Covid patients.

cameramonkey

cameramonkey wrote: »

it is pretty unbelievable that after a few weeks of this the HSE cannot present coherent figures. they are either being deliberately obstructive or are incompetent.

It's almost as if satisfying the curiosity of people on boards.ie isn't their top priority right now.

wakka12

youreadthat wrote: »

Over 600,000 people die in the UK every year.

And at the current rate there will be several tens of thousands added to that. Already that annual mortality figure you posted has been inflated by nearly 0.5% in just a few days. The numbers coming out of the UK are shockingly high, theres no way of minimising this

devnull

Gentleman Off The Pitch wrote: »

The UK death figures are only for those hospitalised, is that the same with other countries?

Edit: I see Just Saying asked the same thing too above

Just Saying wrote: »

Are UK figures still hospital deaths only?

I read somewhere that up to 20/03 the deaths had been underestimated by 24% as deaths outside hospitals had not been included...

They said they were going to fix the numbers to include home and care home deaths after it was pointed out they were under-reporting figures.

However they still refuse to do this, probably because it would look bad for the government.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1245337119721230340

bekker

Deleted User wrote: »

Dumb question. If you get Covid-19 and have recovered can you still spread the virus via hands etc.?

It's possible because there is no definition for recovered, and date of initial contact is in most cases also a presumption.

Infected cases have been observed shedding up to 35 day after in initial contact, and more recently a time of 40 days has been reported, but these are very much outliers.

In most case symptoms seem to have peaked after about 14 days from date of initial contact. Also most cases have ceased shedding viable virus load by about 28 days after initial contact. It appears then that after 28 days from initial contact the risk of infection would be rather low.

The problem is that most regimes (currently including our own) have no SOPs in place for defining it, or practicable methodology of testing available for declaring a case recovered.

The above relates to active transmission, all the usual passive retransmission still apply as mentioned previously.

gabeeg

Naggdefy wrote: »

Why so? Are you saying a big percentage of the 563 were going to die today anyway?

There was a 13 year old and a 19 year old amongst the dead

spookwoman

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-some-people-still-dont-grasp-the-severity-of-the-current-crisis-and-their-role-within-it/

The woman who was sitting alone on a bench beside the pond was told by the bobby to move along. But she wasn't breaching the distance rule and she had no signs of illness. Some of the English police forces having been taking unnecessary action in response to the outbreak, i.e. the use of drones to tell people in public parks to go home.

She was sitting on a bench enjoying the sun, the lock down says only out for exercise, work, shops, medical etc. Sitting on your ar*e is not one of them.

ITman88

Naggdefy wrote: »

Why so? Are you saying a big percentage of the 563 were going to die today anyway?

I wasn’t but the spoofer Neil Ferguson (who is advising the Uk) said as many as 2/3 were going to die anyway.

Similar in Italy, an incredibly low number of deaths this flu season is being credited with the high number of covid deaths.

Italy has had influenza pandemics in recent season accredited with 54000 extra deaths.

Death rates in Italy has hit as many as 62000 in the month of March in recent years, until the total death rates are published its speculation to suggest all deaths are over and above.

Kermit.de.frog

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

They do but the HSE have not been providing clear answers. Maybe the deputy CMO will do so today but I wouldn`t bet on it.

I think the press conferences have been poor from the journalists tbh and I have seen most of them.

They should push them away from using ambiguous language that can be construed to mean all sorts of things especially in relation to ICU.

Never mind the cases, that's the single most important figure.

Disappointing from both sides.

spookwoman

Now for the reagents
https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1245354908645298178?s=20

Just Saying

devnull wrote: »

They said they were going to fix the numbers to include home and care home deaths after it was pointed out they were under-reporting figures.

However they still refuse to do this, probably because it would look bad for the government.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1245337119721230340

Thanks for clarifying that.

If they 24% under reporting figure of non hospital deaths from 20/03 has continued they are on the Italy/Spain path ..

I am nearly sure that nursing home deaths are included in this country.