CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Antares35

Probably not of much interest but in the context of all things Covid! I am trying to find a way to do online shopping for my elderly parents who are in lockdown in Spain. I really would love if they could avoid going out at all. I asked a facebook group in the area if they know of any supermarkets doing home deliveries. Two people messaged me and offered to do their shopping for them. I'm already teary and emotional today, and this has just sent me over the edge in the nicest way possible way. Some people really are just amazing, and it can be the small acts of kindness in adversity that get you through :) This has really made my day...

10000maniacs

take everything wrote: »

Facehugger is advocating, whether he knows it or not, for the complete collapse of our health system. A thriving economy with no health system. Don't think he's thought it through tbh

Its difficult for some people.

alan partridge aha

Lwaker. wrote: »

Fake stats

Depends on level of testing

We can only go on the figures we have.

BrianD3

ITman88 wrote: »

The current deaths from Italy sound insane, but it’s nothing unusual for March in Italy.
62000 deaths in March a number of years ago, when we see the number of deaths from this March we can than accurately see the rise in deaths.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-31/italy-s-mild-flu-season-may-solve-mystery-of-coronavirus-deaths

Interesting. And this would be compounded if, in addition, the flu season hit Italy much later than usual - at around the time when the world was starting to panic about Covid-19.

March 2020 - Covid-19 starts killing in the cohort who "should" have died of flu in November 2019.

The late flu would be killing from the same cohort in addition to those that were "supposed" to die from flu in March 2020.

The healthcare system is hit with all of this at once, people are panicking, everything is being attributed to Covid-19, it becomes difficult to distinguish who is dying from Covid vs who is dying with it. Hospitals become chaotic due to illness itself and panic, the bodies pile up resulting in more panic.

OscarMIlde

cameramonkey wrote: »

If we need more tests done quickly we should send some away if there is capacity somewhere else. Each batch could have known Positive/ negative control samples in them so that we could verify that those samples were correct. We could also send samples that have been split in to an A and B sample and then test our A sample when we have the capacity.This is what they do for drug tests for athletes.


The regime for testing is broken at the moment and we need to face up to that, it is a vital part of the fight against the pandemic. Testing means that we know where to target our resources and it means that we can get vital health care workers back into the system quicker when we know they are negative.

You can't send them away, it's an RNA based virus. The RNA would be degraded and unsuitable for RT-PCR by the time it reached another country.

emo72

i havent posted on these threads. but have 1 question.
how can we know the death rate, if we cant accurately count the people that have the virus?

RandomName2

Wibbs wrote: »

+1. While tragic these outliers are just that outliers, but the press are quick to jump on this tiny minority of tragedies because it gets clicks.

Although the numbers are relatively small, so may not therefore be entirely reliable, the statistical likelihood of someone very young dying of the disease is about 0.2% last I saw. I'd imagine that that would make Covid-19 the single most dangerous thing for young people, even if on an individual basis death would be very unlikely.

If that statistic holds true, then if 100,000 young people (say between the ages of 10 and 22) got infected, you might expect 200 of them to die (provided that the hospitals were able to cope with that number of cases, which they of course wouldn't).

For instance testicular cancer has about 90% survival rate, and only occurs in 1 in 10,000 males. You can therefore say that testicular cancer will virtually never kill anyone. :rolleyes:

chasm

rusty cole wrote: »

Can I ask, have any of you got this new Covid-19 leaflet that was imminent last week? In a time where people need facts, where is it? nearly 2 million for a bleeding printer and here we are waiting for a tell all covid info pack?

anyone get one?? or like the tests now, was the idea of them more credible than the tangible items themselves...bloody joke.

also Leo was quick to point out, they'd be delivered FREE OF CHARGE!! very good of him eh.. I mean our Taxes pay for them anyway.

Nothing here yet, no leaflet, no postcards. That said i'm still waiting on my iodine tablets and my free tree

Fr_Dougal

emo72 wrote: »

i havent posted on these threads. but have 1 question.
how can we know the death rate, if we cant accurately count the people that have the virus?

We can’t, not until it’s over.

kyote00

They go to the morgue each day, count the bodies and put them in their spreadsheet...

emo72 wrote: »

i havent posted on these threads. but have 1 question.
how can we know the death rate, if we cant accurately count the people that have the virus?

Lwaker.

alan partridge aha wrote: »

We can only go on the figures we have.

This again

Rob A. Bank

ITman88 wrote: »

That death rate was a prediction from models.

Models that have been incredibly flawed in the past.

https://www.rt.com/uk/484319-coronavirus-swine-flu-hysteria-redux/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

So all of the world's best virologists and infectious-disease epidemiologists have got it wrong so far ? And some randomer on Russian TV has all the answers.

It's all just a 'storm in a teacup' ? :rolleyes:

Why do you keep trying to minimize the lethal effects of this pandemic ?



Even Trump was convinced by the terrible numbers on the charts behind him yesterday.

.

kyote00

I 'think' they use the 'register of elections' to send them out....so if you are not on this or haven;t updated recently then you probably wont get them....

Electronic versions of everything here......
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/partner-resources/

chasm wrote: »

Nothing here yet, no leaflet, no postcards. That said i'm still waiting on my iodine tablets or my free tree

Itssoeasy

The CMO tony Holohan is in hospital for non covid 19 tests. Id say it's stress and hopefully he's okay and back doing the great job he's been doing.

Kermit.de.frog

Italy, new deaths down, new cases up

727 fatalities recorded, down from over 800 yesterday.

Kermit.de.frog

Still 5:30 for DOH press conference?

briany

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

So all of the world's best virologists and infectious-disease epidemiologists have got it wrong so far ? And some randomer on Russian TV has all the answers.

It's all just a 'storm in a teacup' ? :rolleyes:

Why do you keep trying to minimize the lethal effects of this pandemic ?

Even Trump was convinced by the terrible numbers on the charts behind him yesterday.

.

Ah, now, when has RT not had our best interests at heart, like. It's not as if they're literally the mouthpiece of the Russian government or anything.

DOCARCH

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Italy, new deaths down, new cases up

727 fatalities recorded, down from over 800 yesterday.

4,782 new cases today. Up around 700 on yesterday.

RandomName2

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

We can’t, not until it’s over.

What a silly answer. If you don't know now, you definitely won't know when it's over!

We can get an accurate picture in countries that have mass testing. In a country like Ireland we can only get a figure in relation to hospital admissions, but remember it would usually take a couple of weeks from infection to death (so there will always be some lag between number of cases reported and number of deaths).

Stheno

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Still 5:30 for DOH press conference?

Dr. Ronan may be late

Wont want to make Dr Tony look bad

Kermit.de.frog

Italian officials calling the "supplies" from Russia a publicity stunt, up to 80% of it useless.

Which will surprise precisely no one.

darjeeling

RandomName2 wrote: »

Although the numbers are relatively small, so may not therefore be entirely reliable, the statistical likelihood of someone very young dying of the disease is about 0.2% last I saw. I'd imagine that that would make Covid-19 the single most dangerous thing for young people, even if on an individual basis death would be very unlikely.

South Korean data on case fatality by age is probably giving a fairly accurate picture of how the disease affects different age groups.

Fatality rate in over 80s is currently more than 500 x rate in under 50s.

Age|Cases|Deaths|Crude CFR
0–9|116|0|0.0%
10–19|519|0|0.0%
20–29|2682|0|0.0%
30–39|1027|1|0.1%
40–49|1323|1|0.1%
50–59|1865|10|0.5%
60–69|1245|23|1.8%
70–79|658|46|7.0%
> 80|452|84|18.6%

NB very likely there are more mild / asymptomatic cases not included in the counts, and 44% of cases remain unresolved.

link to data

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1245384015533821953?s=20

ITman88

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

So all of the world's best virologists and infectious-disease epidemiologists have got it wrong so far ? And some randomer on Russian TV has all the answers.

It's all just a 'storm in a teacup' ? :rolleyes:

Why do you keep trying to minimize the lethal effects of this pandemic ?



Even Trump was convinced by the terrible numbers on the charts behind him yesterday.

.

Eh he’s an Irish science journalist based in London.

You left that part out.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/apr/29/swine-flu-mexico-uk-media1

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain

Those links were imbedded in the article

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Still 5:30 for DOH press conference?

No time announced by either Fergal Bowers or Richard Chambers yet, which suggests 7 would be the earliest.

Mental Mickey

Yer one speaking on behalf of the NHS now is Irish.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No time announced by either Fergal Bowers or Richard Chambers yet, which suggests 7 would be the earliest.

Thought I saw 5:30 mentioned?

Mental Mickey

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No time announced by either Fergal Bowers or Richard Chambers yet, which suggests 7 would be the earliest.

5.30 was mentioned either earlier today or late yesterday...?

spookwoman

5.45 or 6.00 in our time

RandomName2

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Why do you keep trying to minimize the lethal effects of this pandemic ?

The fifth column for the coronavirus is gradually being defeated. They need to be stamped out. As the video DeVore posted shows, if only 10% of people don't take social distancing seriously, the effect can be huge. There are a small number of people who have always been opposed to any measures being taken against Covid-19, but their argument are flawed from both a ethical and economic point of view.

Unfortunately Trump has been one of those people, and his slow conversion will cost America greatly, both in lives and dollars (let's be honest, the latter is what a lot of people are genuinely concerned about)

Atlantic Dawn

Cuomo on CNN now.

Mental Mickey

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Yer one speaking on behalf of the NHS now is Irish.

On that I can't believe all the Irish working in the NHS didn't "come home to help" what's wrong with them? Perth Health system be damned.

Sittingpretty

I just learned of the death of a parent in my child’s school with COVID 19.

Age 42

josip

OscarMIlde wrote: »

You can't send them away, it's an RNA based virus. The RNA would be degraded and unsuitable for RT-PCR by the time it reached another country.

How do we test samples here 7 days or more after the swabs are taken?

Mental Mickey

Sittingpretty wrote: »

I just learned of the death of a parent in my child’s school with COVID 19.

Age 42

Fook. RIP

bekker

RiseAbove4 wrote: »

Ok, I’ll give this a go in the catch all thread, aka The Daily Blur


Ive just read this on a UK forum;

“In order to medically claim that someone is recovered you need to retest them to make sure they no longer have the virus”

Is this true for Ireland and elsewhere too?

The number listed under Recovered have always worried me, but maybe I’m misunderstanding them

Yes.

You haven't misunderstood, there is no consistency in the 'Recovered' figures, just like 'Confirmed' cases figure.

Some countries test once after 14 or 18 days, a few test twice, most if your still standing after 14 days you've 'Recovered'.

To do properly is a resource hungry operation.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1245386363006058496?s=20

chasm

kyote00 wrote: »

I 'think' they use the 'register of elections' to send them out....so if you are not on this or haven;t updated recently then you probably wont get them....

Electronic versions of everything here......
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/partner-resources/

I am on the register and have been for many years.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1245386941111164935?s=20

MD1990

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1245386363006058496?s=20

I think we should wear them.

Better be safe than sorry & some people will have it with no syptoms so will help prevent spread.

Hector Savage

At first I was optimistically thinking weeks for this - realistically months, now I optimistically think months, realistically years...

Italy ****ED again.

Blanco100

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1245386363006058496?s=20

Never understood this. Of course they would provide some kind of protection. Always thought the advice not to wear them or class them as pointless means of protection was a way of protecting their supply more than anything else.

The last thing they would want is a run on masks.

Naggdefy

1816 was the year without a summer, meteorologically, post Mt. Tambora eruption.

2020 is going to be year without summer in a sporting sense, and with whatever other restrictions remain.

There's no soft words to sugar coat it, we're just going to have to tough it out, one day at a time. We'll really appreciate life, hopefully most of us here will pull through, when this is over.

cameramonkey

I would think there could be a fall in positive cases today if the testing numbers are limited.
Death rates should be starting to climb as the numbers who are infected start to develop more serious conditions.

OscarMIlde

weldoninhio wrote: »

Looks like no one told the U.K. manufacturers of re-agent about this shortage. They know nothing about it. Politician wouldn’t lie, would they??

These are commercial test kits designed to extract and purify RNA. They contain various solutions made up in precise quantities. Diagnostics labs cannot just start making these solutions themselves. For one thing, companies don't let you know the precise quantities of reagents in each buffer; it's propriety information. For another, diagnostic labs have to use the kits that they are accredited to use as per their test protocols. You cannot just chop and change as you would in a research lab, as tests have a clinical significance and need to be trusted.

voluntary

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1245386363006058496?s=20

They will be now reviewing what most reasonable people were saying from the day-1.

Mental Mickey

Hector Savage wrote: »

At first I was optimistically thinking weeks for this - realistically months, now I optimistically think months, realistically years...

Italy ****ED again.

What happened in Italy now?

kyote00

"science journalist"
science is not jouralism

ITman88 wrote: »

Eh he’s an Irish science journalist based in London.

You left that part out.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/apr/29/swine-flu-mexico-uk-media1

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain

Those links were imbedded in the article

cameramonkey

Blanco100 wrote: »

Never understood this. Of course they would provide some kind of protection. Always thought the advice not to wear them or class them as pointless means of protection was a way of protecting their supply more than anything else.

The last thing they would want is a run on masks.

They HSE had no supply of mask so of course they we ambiguous about their use. Now that supply is starting to kick in they will recommend that they are useful and should be worn. It is all very predictable from the HSE.

Cody montana

USA about to hit 200 thousand cases.

World over 900 thousand cases.