The Chinese Big Lie

2u2me

Yurt! wrote: »

Right, like I said.
As my Leaving Cert maths teacher used to ask me: show me your workings.

You must assume many more things for the 'lab-leak' to be believable.

You must assume they were able to find the right virus that could infect everyone naturally. In a small lab.
Things have a much better chance of mutating and evolving in large numbers of animals where the germs spread back and forth, something like a wet market. Labs only hold small amounts of animals relatively.

Now you must also assume in this research facility where they research bats and corona virus that another virus mutated naturally and wasn't spotted.

Not only that but it was allowed to leak when none of their previous virus' had leaked.

That's a lot of assumptions.

Humilde

12trackmind wrote: »

It's always wise (and ethical) to assume incompetence rather than malice.

Is there a case for criminal negligence in the West? Yes. I believe so. Especially in the U.S., Spain and the U.K. There is a slim chance that justice will be served in the West. Unfortunately, as in China, it is likely that any successful cases will involve lower ranked officials. Thankfully, unlike in China, we have elections and being voted out of office is regarded as a punishment of sorts... and it is, because it takes the reins of powers away.

Regardless of the virus' origin, pangolin, lab, bat, donkey or dog, have the CCP been criminally negligent?

That Globe & Mail article I referred to earlier in the thread (one of the authors being Irwin Cotler, former justice minister and attorney-general of Canada) is worth taking seriously, IMO:



There is no hope for justice within China. The central authorities will do what they always do.. put the blame on local figures and take no responsibility themselves.

Justice --for all the lives, trillions, time and productivity lost-- is going to have to come from outside. But how to do this without resorting to collective punishment? The Chinese people have suffered enough under the CCP and its supporters already.

Answer is that we don't need to punish the Chinese people. We need them to allow teams of international scientists to monitor whats going on in their country. If they don't agree, then trade sanctions. That would be a start. But, I must stress that nothing can stand in the way of preventing this happening again, not even collective punishment if there is no other option.

Yurt2

2u2me wrote: »

You must assume many more things for the 'lab-leak' to be believable.

You must assume they were able to find the right virus that could infect everyone naturally. In a small lab.
Things have a much better chance of mutating and evolving in large numbers of animals where the germs spread back and forth, something like a wet market. Labs only hold small amounts of animals relatively.

Now you must also assume in this research facility where they research bats and corona virus that another virus mutated naturally and wasn't spotted.

Not only that but it was allowed to leak when none of their previous virus' had leaked.

That's a lot of assumptions.

I'll just deal with the bolded bit, do you know what kind of viruses are dealt with it in BSL-4 labs? And do you know what kind of work we know went on in the lab from publicly available information?

We know for a fact (google-fu away) that SARS-like viruses were administered to intermediary mammals such as mice in the Wuhan lab. So there's no assumptions there either.

Professor Ebright (the credentialed Professor that you wish to pooh pooh) also makes note of the fact that SARS had escaped from a lab in Beijing twice in the 2000s.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137

2u2me

Yurt! wrote: »

I'll just deal with the bolded bit, do you know what kind of viruses are dealt with it in BSL-4 labs? And do you know what kind of work we know went on in the lab from publicly available information?

We know for a fact (google-fu away) that SARS-like viruses were administered to intermediary mammals such as mice in the Wuhan lab. So there's no assumptions there either.

Professor Ebright (the credentialed Professor that you wish to pooh pooh) also makes note of the fact that SARS had escaped from a lab in Beijing twice in the 2000s.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. But the 'lab-leak' still requires more assumptions to make and therefore way less likely.
You can nit-pick the individual points, but you don't discount there are still more assumptions to make? That's good enough for me.

2u2me

Humilde wrote: »

Answer is that we don't need to punish the Chinese people. We need them to allow teams of international scientists to monitor whats going on in their country. If they don't agree, then trade sanctions. That would be a start. But, I must stress that nothing can stand in the way of preventing this happening again, not even collective punishment if there is no other option.

If we start looking for reparations for this virus, imagine that can of worms that could open.

Imagine foreign governments planting virus' in enemy countries!

12trackmind

2u2me wrote: »

Imagine foreign governments planting virus' in enemy countries!

We also now know that an entire aircraft carrier can be taken out by a teeny, tiny little virus. (There is something karmic about that....)

Yurt2

2u2me wrote: »

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. But the 'lab-leak' still requires more assumptions to make and therefore way less likely.
You can nit-pick the individual points, but you don't discount there are still more assumptions to make? That's good enough for me.

I'm not even putting a probability on it, I'm all ears within reason about its origins. I'm just glad you've moved away from calling it a tin-foil hat conspiracy theory. Which is quite frankly ridiculous.

This lab was dealing with the very same family of viruses that covid-19 comes from, within direct shot of the placed its said to have emanated from (in a country, I'm sorry to say, that's noted for corner-cutting at all levels of society: 差不多)

If any official or international agency investigating this rule it out, I'd seriously question what they were at and what their M.O. was.

2u2me

12trackmind wrote: »

We also now know that an entire aircraft carrier can be taken out by a teeny, tiny little virus. (There is something karmic about that....)

If you think that's impressive you need to watch this :cool:

2u2me

Yurt! wrote: »

I'm not even putting a probability on it, I'm all ears within reason about its origins. I'm just glad you've moved away from calling it a tin-foil hat conspiracy theory. Which is quite frankly ridiculous.

This lab was dealing with the very same family of viruses that covid-19 comes from, within direct shot of the placed its said to have emanated from.
If any official or international agency investigating this rule it out, I'd seriously question what they were at and what their M.O. was.

Fair enough.
The tinfoil hat conspiracy was definitely the 'created in a lab' as opposed to 'lab-leak'.

But lab-leak is still way, way less likely. You'll not see any numbers its just reason and logic.

silverharp

2u2me wrote: »

Fair enough.
The tinfoil hat conspiracy was definitely the 'created in a lab' as opposed to 'lab-leak'.

But lab-leak is still way, way less likely. You'll not see any numbers its just reason and logic.

China opening their wet markets is telegraphing that the Chinese don't believe the virus originated in one, the escaped from a lab is looking quite good now

thebaz

China and WHO cosying up again :-
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/coronavirus-china-denies-allegations-pandemic-began-in-lab-near-wuhan-1.4230342?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fcoronavirus-china-denies-allegations-pandemic-began-in-lab-near-wuhan-1.4230342

China saying no evidence virus is lab based, as confirmed by WHO . I rarely agree with Trump, but I think he is right about WHO.

cryptocurrency

thebaz wrote: »

China and WHO cosying up again :-
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/coronavirus-china-denies-allegations-pandemic-began-in-lab-near-wuhan-1.4230342?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fcoronavirus-china-denies-allegations-pandemic-began-in-lab-near-wuhan-1.4230342

China saying no evidence virus is lab based, as confirmed by WHO . I rarely agree with Trump, but I think he is right about WHO.

Why do you want it to be from a lab so much?

cryptocurrency

silverharp wrote: »

China opening their wet markets is telegraphing that the Chinese don't believe the virus originated in one, the escaped from a lab is looking quite good now

Are they selling the same stuff in the wet market or are you just typing noise

thebaz

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why do you want it to be from a lab so much?

I absolutly don't, if it is from a lab, think it will be a lot more sinister , than if it was to have occureed naturally (hard calling a wet market natural, but far better than something originating out of a bio lab.

cryptocurrency

thebaz wrote: »

I absolutly don't, if it is from a lab, think it will be a lot more sinister , than if it was to have occureed naturally (hard calling a wet market natural, but far better than something originating out of a bio lab.

There is no evidence that has come from a lab, and all authorities have run with that line to date on this, including the US. Until that even has any evidence then we can take it that the 97% from a bat to be just that, from a bat.

The virus line is just one pushed by crack pot Alex Jones conspircy heads and closet racist morons. People are wishing for it to be from a lab so their precious pride isn't dented from the national shambles that they have been presented with to their elevated views of themselves. The papers fed these morons with cat nip.

At present there is nothing that warrants the lab theory except Jim Corr, Alex Jones, David Icke and Steve Bannon. You buy that, now, with what is out there, there is tin foil hat issues.

rossie1977

Any excuse to take blame away from the awful US and UK handling of the situation.

The Chinese didn't

* make Trump disband the pandemic task force in 2018.
* make him sell PPE to other countries greatly reducing their own supply when a pandemic to hit.
* make him wait 3 months to tell companies to start producing ventilators
* make him refuse to use the German developed WHO tests and instead have the CDC develop their own tests, which ended up being defective.

FVP3

Yurt! wrote: »

Right, like I said.

As my Leaving Cert maths teacher used to ask me: show me your workings.

It is extraordinary claims that merit extraordinary proof. Reading from your beloved neo conservative websites, or Trump, isn't sufficient.

here is me posting this for the 4th time I reckon.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html

and

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

While the analyses above suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may bind human ACE2 with high affinity, computational analyses predict that the interaction is not ideal7 and that the RBD sequence is different from those shown in SARS-CoV to be optimal for receptor binding7,11. Thus, the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation

Yurt2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why do you want it to be from a lab so much?

Why do you refuse to countenance it? If you were sent in to investigate the origins of SARS-like illness , and you knew there was a bio-lab studying SARS strains within shot of the first cluster of cases, where would crypto look? Right, he'd probably head for the American consulate and start swabbing the marines.

Crypto, you're defense of all things CCP in this thread has been nothing short of weird.

Yurt2

FVP3 wrote: »

It is extraordinary claims that merit extraordinary proof. Reading from your beloved neo conservative websites, or Trump, isn't sufficient.

here is me posting this for the 4th time I reckon.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html

and

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

While the analyses above suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may bind human ACE2 with high affinity, computational analyses predict that the interaction is not ideal7 and that the RBD sequence is different from those shown in SARS-CoV to be optimal for receptor binding7,11. Thus, the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation

Once again, that article is dealing with the hypothesis that the virus was man-made / engineered, which nobody in this thread is claiming.

A lab-leak is not an extraordinary claim. All it requires is undertrained / incompetent technicians, which the US Science attache had concerns about in 2018.

But yeah, moon landings, Trump, flat-earth etc etc.

Just don't look at the bio-lab and keep on scouring Wuhan for traces of pangolin.

2u2me

Yurt! wrote: »

Once again, that article is dealing with the hypothesis that the virus was man-made / engineered, which nobody in this thread is claiming.

You may have not made that claim but there were definitely other people claiming that here before.

FVP3

Yurt! wrote: »

I'm not even putting a probability on it, I'm all ears within reason about its origins. I'm just glad you've moved away from calling it a tin-foil hat conspiracy theory.
.

Oh it is definitely that.

Unfortunately we live in an idiocracy, Dominic Raab is also promoting this nonsense and the daily mail cretins are lapping it up. No amount of science will theory these guys.

And on the other side the Chinese nationalists are pointing at a biolab in the US called Fort Detrick, from where the virus was brought into China during the Wuhan Military Games. Both are nonsense.

BanditLuke

The amount of sheer deflection here of the bio lab scenerio is hilarious. Personally I think it's not likely but no point dismissing it without investigation right?

Let's wait and see what comes of it.

FVP3

Yurt! wrote: »

Once again, that article is dealing with the hypothesis that the virus was man-made / engineered, which nobody in this thread is claiming.

A lab-leak is not an extraordinary claim. All it requires is undertrained / incompetent technicians, which the US Science attache had concerns about in 2018.

But yeah, moon landings, Trump, flat-earth etc etc.

Just don't look at the bio-lab and keep on scouring Wuhan for traces of pangolin.

Ok so you are claiming that the corona virus happened naturally in the wild, was brought into the lab by mistake ( or design), then out of the lab ( by mistake r design).

Thats a two tin foil hat scenario, and totally fails occam's razor. If the virus was in the wild then the lab is irrelevant. If leaks happened all the time there would be more evidence of this in previous outbreaks. I am not aware of any.

But yeah, moon landings, Trump, flat-earth etc etc.

Not sure exactly what that is in response to.

2u2me

BanditLuke wrote: »

The amount of sheer deflection here of the bio lab scenerio is hilarious. Personally I think it's not likely but no point dismissing it without investigation right?

Let's wait and see what comes of it.

If a bookie took bets I'd lay my house.

To analogize it:

It would be like coming across two fallen trees.
You could either assume:
1. They fell naturally.
2. Two meteorites came down knocked over the trees, then smashed into each other vaporizing and leaving no trace.

I know which I'd bet on

FVP3

BanditLuke wrote: »

The amount of sheer deflection here of the bio lab scenerio is hilarious. Personally I think it's not likely but no point dismissing it without investigation right?

Let's wait and see what comes of it.

you call all counter arguments, including scientific arguments, deflection. An argument isnt a deflection. What Trump is doing ( Look at China) is.

Yurt2

FVP3 wrote: »

Oh it is definitely that.

Unfortunately we live in an idiocracy, Dominic Raab is also promoting this nonsense and the daily mail cretins are lapping it up. No amount of science will theory these guys.

And on the other side the Chinese nationalists are pointing at a biolab in the US called Fort Detrick, from where the virus was brought into China during the Wuhan Military Games. Both are nonsense.

Sure, it's completely impossible that there could have been a screw-up in the lab dealing with the same family of viruses that was under scrutiny for underskilled staff in 2018.

Completely barmy, right up there with moon lasers and Hitler still being alive in Argentina. Crazy stuff altogether. Harvard edcuated Microbiology experts are nutso too. Met one once, bonkers.

"I'd like to bet the lot on pangolins Chris."

- "You sure?"

"Absolutely, I hate Dominic Raab."

Yurt2

2u2me wrote: »

It would be like coming across two fallen trees.
You could either assume:
1. They fell naturally.
2. Two meteorites came down knocked over the trees, then smashed into each other vaporizing and leaving no trace.

I know which I'd bet on

Are you seriously comparing the probability of a connection between a SARS-like virus overrunning a city that happens to have a lab studying SARS-like viruses to a meteor strike?

2u2me

Yurt! wrote: »

Are you seriously comparing the probability of a connection between a SARS-like virus overrunning a city that happens to have a lab studying SARS-like viruses to a meteor strike?

I'm comparing the probability of this virus originating from a lab 'naturally' to a meteor strike yes.

thebaz

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is no evidence that has come from a lab, and all authorities have run with that line to date on this, including the US. Until that even has any evidence then we can take it that the 97% from a bat to be just that, from a bat.

The virus line is just one pushed by crack pot Alex Jones conspircy heads and closet racist morons. People are wishing for it to be from a lab so their precious pride isn't dented from the national shambles that they have been presented with to their elevated views of themselves. The papers fed these morons with cat nip.

At present there is nothing that warrants the lab theory except Jim Corr, Alex Jones, David Icke and Steve Bannon. You buy that, now, with what is out there, there is tin foil hat issues.

I wish I shared your confidence of its origins, you are probably right , but I'd say thers a 20% chance it origins are from lab - I don't share your confidence in the CCP , they have been far from truthfiul, particularly at the early critical stage in January. and the stats are really strange in comparison to Europe and America , why did virus not spread throughout China in the early days is a mystery to me, when ther was no Wuhan lockdown (before to end of January)

Yurt2

FVP3 wrote: »

Ok so you are claiming that the corona virus happened naturally in the wild, was brought into the lab by mistake ( or design), then out of the lab ( by mistake r design).


Thats a two tin foil hat scenario, and totally fails occam's razor. If the virus was in the wild then the lab is irrelevant. If leaks happened all the time there would be more evidence of this in previous outbreaks. I am not aware of any.

Oh for goodness sake, you cant be serious? The lab's entire purpose was to study samples of both existing known strains of viruses and novel bat-borne viruses that the chief scientist was well-known for seeking out from Yunnan.

You're being absolutely ridiculous here. I have stuff to do, I'm off.

Enjoy the pangolin hunt. Don't bet the house on it though.