Relaxation of restrictions

ceadaoin.

Blueshoe wrote: »

People cannot just get back to work and potentially continue to spread the virus. Until new infections dry up almost completely there will be no return to normality

To say that, you must still be getting paid in some capacity. Most of the world doesn't have that luxury. If this goes on for months then economies collapse. And that won't be allowed to happen.

Germany are saying the death rate is less than 1%. At some point we'll have to just deal with it and get on with life

Poor_old_gill

Irish Times flying the kite of restrictions being eased after May Bank holiday weekend - any suggestions as to what this might entail?

I'm getting married in August with about 200 guests coming - I'd kind of reconciled myself to the fact that it wouldnt happen so I'm wondering now will gatherings be allowed by then?

Forgetting about my own situation - what can they do to lift restrictions? Any attempt to get people back to work will mean social distancing goes out the window.

Places that are closed are retail, pubs, etc - places that all need footfall but to have this footfall you need people in work as most are located near places of work to capture said footfall - you then need public transport to get people into there and suddenly theres no chance of social distancing.

Maybe I'm missing something but how could they get around it?

Nermal

Blueshoe wrote: »

Until new infections dry up almost completely there will be no return to normality

Then what?

When the lockdown is lifted, we’re going to test everyone with symptoms, despite the fact that that half the people who have it don’t have any?

Despite the fact that up to 30% of the time, we’ll get a false negative on the test?

Then we’ll trace contacts through bars, restaurants, crowded public transport and cinemas?

Someone needs to shout stop here. This is not a credible plan.

Blueshoe

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Unfortunately that's not going to happen. It was said yesterday that a point will come whereby the virus wont be completely eradicated but that normal life will have to resume

I had an upcoming appointment at a private hospital in Dublin. I received a text message yesterday from the consultant secretary that that particular hospital would not be running appointments for the "next 3 months due to the covid 19 outbreak"

Make of that what you will. On another note the vhi still helped themselves to the monthly premium though which I am non too impressed about

Poor_old_gill

Nermal wrote: »

Then what?

When the lockdown is lifted, we’re going to test everyone with symptoms, despite the fact that that half the people who have it don’t have any?

Despite the fact that up to 30% of the time, we’ll get a false negative on the test?

Then we’ll trace contacts through bars, restaurants, crowded public transport and cinemas?

Someone needs to shout stop here. This is not a credible plan.

What is a credible plan then though?

timmy_mallet

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

We're hardly gonna be on lockdown for the month of May as well are we?

What year, mate?

Nolan will have us lockdown for eternity, he wouldnt be doing his job if he didnt.

timmy_mallet

Blueshoe wrote: »

People cannot just get back to work and potentially continue to spread the virus. Until new infections dry up almost completely there will be no return to normality

The logical path this gets to is infinite lockdown. Congrats.

Pete_Cavan

Blueshoe wrote: »

People cannot just get back to work and potentially continue to spread the virus. Until new infections dry up almost completely there will be no return to normality

The virus will continue to exist and people will continue to get infected. This is the reality everyone has to accept. Waiting for new infections to "dry up almost completely" means waiting for a vaccine to be developed, mass produced and administered to the population which is at least 18 months away at best. People are going to continue to get infected in all scenarios but the scenario that involves keeping everything shutdown also destroys the economy, results in significant deaths from other causes and does untold mental health damage.

Pitch n Putt

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

We're hardly gonna be on lockdown for the month of May as well are we?

We’re going to be with the current half arsed attempt of a lockdown indefinitely the way things are going.

Two weeks so far no end in sight, thousands of non essential workplaces still open because they think I’ve found a loophole to stay open totally missing the point of what we as a country are trying to achieve.

Now Simon Harris wants to open hardware stores so John and Mary can get paint etc to keep the occupied for a few weeks
Chief medical officer says it’s a bad idea and he’s right, these places will be packed.

Idiots online things for sale or free sites selling and looking for paint also the last two weeks asking where can I meet u I’m really stuck for this paint.

People just stay at home and take the pain it would give us a chance of getting out of this so called lockdown.

Phoebas

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

What is a credible plan then though?

Mass antibody testing with immunity certificates.
Mandatory tracking apps for automated contact tracing.
Strict cocooning of at risk groups until the vaccine arrives.
A gradual, targeted relaxation of restrictions to keep the infection rate at a manageable level and the death toll at an acceptable level.

Logan Roy

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

We’re going to be with the current half arsed attempt of a lockdown indefinitely the way things are going.

Two weeks so far no end in sight, thousands of non essential workplaces still open because they think I’ve found a loophole to stay open totally missing the point of what we as a country are trying to achieve.

Now Simon Harris wants to open hardware stores so John and Mary can get paint etc to keep the occupied for a few weeks
Chief medical officer says it’s a bad idea and he’s right, these places will be packed.

Idiots online things for sale or free sites selling and looking for paint also the last two weeks asking where can I meet u I’m really stuck for this paint.

People just stay at home and take the pain it would give us a chance of getting out of this so called lockdown.

Thanks for chipping in with your thoughts

Blueshoe

timmy_mallet wrote: »

The logical path this gets to is infinite lockdown. Congrats.

The rate must be firmly below 1:1 before business as usual returns. If you bothered to watch the daily press conferences you might learn something .

Nermal

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

What is a credible plan then though?

Accept that most people will get infected.

Implement only cocooning/distancing measures that don’t cause significant economic disruption.

Direct the medical resources we have at those who are most likely to survive and accept that we can’t save everyone.

Nermal

Blueshoe wrote: »

The rate must be firmly below 1:1 before business as usual returns. If you bothered to watch the daily press conferences you might learn something .

Jesus. Think. What happens to the rate then when BAU returns?

Carfacemandog

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

The vulnerable and high risk have to protect themselves in order to avoid it. There is very little the wider population can do for them, they have to protect themselves. Lockdown is an attempt to contain the virus, it does not eliminate it. The risk remains for these people until we either develop a vaccine or achieve herd immunity. The other 80+% of the population will have to earn a living and generate the economic activity required to pay for the health care the remainder will need.

That sounds like little more than "fcuk 'em, don't care" if you're not even willing to think of ways to reduce their risk and exposure in the process.

Your plan is basically to copy what the UK did initially, even after they saw how badly it failed and moved away from it. How do you expect that to result in better results?

donaghs

Blueshoe wrote: »

People cannot just get back to work and potentially continue to spread the virus. Until new infections dry up almost completely there will be no return to normality

If it means saving the future, I think some categories of young healthy people, you can avoid the vulnerable, should go back to work - globally. If they spread the virus among themselves and recover (less than half will even have any symptoms), then that will speed to return to normality.

There is 0.01% or so chance of death, but I think we need to be stoical about this, in order to prevent an even worse catastrophe in the form of a global Great Depression.

timmy_mallet

Blueshoe wrote: »

The rate must be firmly below 1:1 before business as usual returns. If you bothered to watch the daily press conferences you might learn something .

Nolan said yesterday evening that if it wasnt 0 (zero) then no lifting of restrictions.

De Gascun suggesting measures of social distancing to go on for a very long time.

The medical professionals are telling you that this lockdown is not ending. What more do you need to hear to believe thay.

Phoebas

Blueshoe wrote: »

The rate must be firmly below 1:1 before business as usual returns. If you bothered to watch the daily press conferences you might learn something .

Not business as usual, but a relaxation of restrictions.
There is no BAU.

Blueshoe

donaghs wrote: »

If it means saving the future, I think some categories of young healthy people, you can avoid the vulnerable, should go back to work - globally. If they spread the virus among themselves and recover (less than half will even have any symptoms), then that will speed to return to normality.

There is 0.01% or so chance of death, but I think we need to be stoical about this, in order to prevent an even worse catastrophe in the form of a global Great Depression.

You haven't thought this through.

Pete_Cavan

Blueshoe wrote: »

The rate must be firmly below 1:1 before business as usual returns. If you bothered to watch the daily press conferences you might learn something .

There are lots of steps between lockdown and "business as usual". Social distancing, continued work from home to the greatest extent possible, no mass gatherings, etc. will all remain for some time but a lot of people could still go back to work.

donaghs

Carfacemandog wrote: »

That sounds like little more than "fcuk 'em, don't care" if you're not even willing to think of ways to reduce their risk and exposure in the process.

Your plan is basically to copy what the UK did initially, even after they saw how badly it failed and moved away from it. How do you expect that to result in better results?

There are ways to help the elderly. Testing nursing home residents and staff. Have a system of identifying elderly without family or friend support, and arrange a contact system for food, medicines and other services.

Blueshoe

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Nolan said yesterday evening that if it wasnt 0 (zero) then no lifting of restrictions.

De Gascun suggesting measures of social distancing to go on for a very long time.

The medical professionals are telling you that this lockdown is not ending. What more do you need to hear to believe thay.

You have gotten your wires crossed. I'm saying that restrictions are going nowhere. Others saying they must be lifted

donaghs

Blueshoe wrote: »

You haven't thought this through.

What would you suggest? Keep lockdown till there's no more cases identified?

How do you reach the ideal "ratio" with a proper testing system? We haven't and we wont have one in Ireland.

The opening up can be gradual. But it has to happen to avoid a worse problem.

Carfacemandog

donaghs wrote: »

There are ways to help the elderly. Testing nursing home residents and staff. Have a system of identifying elderly without family or friend support, and arrange a contact system for food, medicines and other services.

If someone could come up with a credible means of doing so and medical profession ask agreed for the most part, then I might be able to get on board with it.

Blueshoe

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

There are lots of steps between lockdown and "business as usual". Social distancing, continued work from home to the greatest extent possible, no mass gatherings, etc. will all remain for some time but a lot of people could still go back to work.

You risk spreading the virus again and all of the misery, deaths and costs just begin again. Too soon friend. No chance of it happening for a while yet. Zero

polesheep

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

The virus will continue to exist and people will continue to get infected. This is the reality everyone has to accept. Waiting for new infections to "dry up almost completely" means waiting for a vaccine to be developed, mass produced and administered to the population which is at least 18 months away at best. People are going to continue to get infected in all scenarios but the scenario that involves keeping everything shutdown also destroys the economy, results in significant deaths from other causes and does untold mental health damage.

This is absolutely it. At some point the government has to realise that we cannot have the perfect resolution the scientists will naturally seek, and they will have to ease the restrictions in line with hospital capabilities. Unfortunately, the elderly at risk and the immunocompromised will have to wait a little longer. Any people from the at risk group that I have spoken to recently realise this and have shown surprising equanimity. I don't think anything more than one extra week with restrictions as they are is justified. And anything more than two weeks will not be tolerated - we would see a fairly dramatic breakdown of compliance.

Steer55

Blueshoe wrote: »

On another note the vhi still helped themselves to the monthly premium though which I am non too impressed about

Same here with Laya. Just wondering now that all private hospitals have for now being coopted into the public system, are they going to refund us?

Phoebas

Carfacemandog wrote: »

That sounds like little more than "fcuk 'em, don't care" if you're not even willing to think of ways to reduce their risk and exposure in the process.

Your plan is basically to copy what the UK did initially, even after they saw how badly it failed and moved away from it. How do you expect that to result in better results?

It's not really.
The current lockdown is not sustainable for an extended period (i.e until the vaccine is rolled out), so we are going to have to gradually open things back up in the safest way possible, but that will involve putting healthy people at more risk.

Pitch n Putt

Logan Roy wrote: »

Thanks for chipping in with your thoughts

Your welcome.
If you’re happy with the current situation indefinitely I say fair play to you.

But there’s a couple of million people in Ireland I’m sure who are not interested in continuing life like this until a vaccine is found.

In my personal opinion we should have gone the hard route a month ago and be further down the road of suppression of this virus

This half attempt is going to wear thin with people.

timmy_mallet

Blueshoe wrote: »

You have gotten your wires crossed. I'm saying that restrictions are going nowhere. Others saying they must be lifted

And I'm saying there going nowhere forever.