Relaxation of restrictions

pjohnson

niallo27 wrote: »

No, I know exactly what he is saying. There will always be a percentage that wont care about the rules. Do you actually think 100% of people will comply.

You can apply this "logic" to any law and it remains just as daft an excuse.

lord quackinton

Has everyone read this
Not a big fan of Hobbs but he is the first I have seen lay down the real harsh truths
Strictly over 18 only as Hobbs writes

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/eddie-hobbs-fasten-your-seatbelt-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-993618.html

I think it’s time people accept what is coming and also accept we must open now fully and I mean everything to try and protect as much of our internal economy as we can

skallywag

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Im struggling lately to follow those predictions from Leo.

Something else I struggle with is articles comparing countries.

Headlines have compared deaths with Italy and the US.
Of course the US will have more deaths it has 6 times the population of Italy.
Its limited journalism to compare such vastly different countries and suggest its shocking that the US would have a higher death rate.

Is it correct to suggest that if you are over 65 in Italy you have a 1 in 1000 chance of dying from Covid up to now?
1 in 3000 from the general population?
Im in no way statistical so Im open to correction.

Comparing countries is practically impossible, and you are nearly always dealing with Apples and Oranges, particularly when it comes to the number of new cases per day, as this number is often measured in a different way completely. Every country also has a very different manner in which testing is carried out. For example some countries will do completely random testing on the population, which is very good at giving you a feeling for how many people in the actual country have it (e.g. Austria did this), whereas other countries will only test people who are clearly sick with symptoms. There are then other countries (e.g. Switzerland) who will not even test you if you do have symptoms.

Concerning the USA, I believe that the main point in play at the moment is how the numbers (of deaths per day in particular) have spiked so fast, and how the governments lack of initial action, or not, may have contributed.

normanoffside

KiKi III wrote: »

Yeah, and that’s why we closed the pubs and schools and introduced social isolation and eventually went into lockdown to prevent us reaching that number.

We would likely have had that number and more if we hadn’t done the above.

We would never have had 15,000 confirmed cases because we would never have been able to test that many.

In reality I am sure we have already had a lot more than that number,

Spain for example estimates it has had 16 times more cases than those reported. It's not unreasonable;e to suggest we maybe have had 5 times more than our number, that would be 40,000+

I'm a month out of the job now and my industry will not be restarting anytime soon, even with a relaxing of restrictions. 'Your health is your wealth' is a great saying, but wholly simplistic in a situation such as this. I say this as someone who is not going hungry here or begging in the streets. Also, most of my work has been rescheduled for future rather than outright cancelled.

What/when is 'the future' though? I've been a good little boy for a month now in relation to social distancing and following guidelines, and doing my best to keep my mental health in check also. I've been taking the positives from a bad situation and appreciating the simpler things in life...all of that. Day to day is mostly fine, but looking at an indefinite future of this with no light at the end of the tunnel...that is a test. I don't want one person to die from COVID-19, but it's also starting to hit home that many things in my life have disappeared, won't be coming back soon, and I'm not as 'oh well' about it as I was say 2 weeks ago.

It doesn't help that while I'm confined to indoors or a 2km radius, masses of people were flocking to beaches and acting like it's just another good BH weekend. House/garden parties galore also. For one - it's making me question what's the point of enduring these deprivations myself, and for another - The longer these masses ignore guidelines and restrictions, the longer it is until I can go back to work and/or resume some semblance of life. I can only see a growth in this behaviour as the lockdown progresses, especially if we're in for some decent weather in the months ahead.

There is a balance and nuances - No one here (hopefully) is saying 'Fúck the virus, let's just carry on as normal'. Just as no one is saying that it is 100% fine to remain in lockdown indefinitely. Getting on top of the virus and managing our ICU admissions is still priority for me, absolutely, but I don't know how well I could mentally endure the past month's isolation if it were to carry on the same for another 6-18 months.

robbiezero

skallywag wrote: »

You do not need to make more restrictions, you need to heavily increase the penalty for non-compliance. In some countries you are getting a fine of up to 3 times the average monthly salary, which is rigidly enforced. This tends to make most people think twice.

Surely if there was concern over the compliance rates this is what they would be doing. The fact that they sre not imo indicates they are happy emough with compliance

Jenbach110

skallywag wrote: »

Comparing countries is practically impossible, and you are nearly always dealing with Apples and Oranges, particularly when it comes to the number of new cases per day, as this number is often measured in a different way completely. Every country also has a very different manner in which testing is carried out. For example some countries will do completely random testing on the population, which is very good at giving you a feeling for how many people in the actual country have it (e.g. Austria did this), whereas other countries will only test people who are clearly sick with symptoms. There are then other countries (e.g. Switzerland) who will not even test you if you do have symptoms.

Concerning the USA, I believe that the main point in play at the moment is how the numbers (of deaths per day in particular) have spiked so fast, and how the governments lack of initial action, or not, may have contributed.

As regards the US, applying Itilian figures on a larger population, we should expect 6000 deaths per day at peak?

skallywag

Jenbach110 wrote: »

As regards the US, applying Itilian figures on a larger population, we should expect 6000 deaths per day at peak?

I do not see how we can compare the two in any meaningful way.

Italy went into complete lockdown and has been in that state for some time. The US had nothing worth talking about in place for a long time after the warnings were there, and even to this day has nothing countrywide in place along the lines of Italy.

So apart from forecasting that the US is going to be certainly worse than Italy (factoring in also it's much larger population as you mentioned) there is not much else we can really conclude in terms of actual numbers at the moment.

skallywag

robbiezero wrote: »

Surely if there was concern over the compliance rates this is what they would be doing. The fact that they sre not imo indicates they are happy emough with compliance

Paragraph three in the post above your one would seems to point towards something different.

citysights

lord quackinton wrote: »

Has everyone read this
Not a big fan of Hobbs but he is the first I have seen lay down the real harsh truths
Strictly over 18 only as Hobbs writes

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/eddie-hobbs-fasten-your-seatbelt-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-993618.html

I think it’s time people accept what is coming and also accept we must open now fully and I mean everything to try and protect as much of our internal economy as we can

Glossed it, you’d actually need to lie down after reading that.

lord quackinton

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm a month out of the job now and my industry will not be restarting anytime soon, even with a relaxing of restrictions. 'Your health is your wealth' is a great saying, but wholly simplistic in a situation such as this. I say this as someone who is not going hungry here or begging in the streets. Also, most of my work has been rescheduled for future rather than outright cancelled.

What/when is 'the future' though? I've been a good little boy for a month now in relation to social distancing and following guidelines, and doing my best to keep my mental health in check also. I've been taking the positives from a bad situation and appreciating the simpler things in life...all of that. Day to day is mostly fine, but looking at an indefinite future of this with no light at the end of the tunnel...that is a test. I don't want one person to die from COVID-19, but it's also starting to hit home that many things in my life have disappeared, won't be coming back soon, and I'm not as 'oh well' about it as I was say 2 weeks ago.

It doesn't help that while I'm confined to indoors or a 2km radius, masses of people were flocking to beaches and acting like it's just another good BH weekend. House/garden parties galore also. For one - it's making me question what's the point of enduring these deprivations myself, and for another - The longer these masses ignore guidelines and restrictions, the longer it is until I can go back to work and/or resume some semblance of life. I can only see a growth in this behaviour as the lockdown progresses, especially if we're in for some decent weather in the months ahead.

There is a balance and nuances - No one here (hopefully) is saying 'Fúck the virus, let's just carry on as normal'. Just as no one is saying that it is 100% fine to remain in lockdown indefinitely. Getting on top of the virus and managing our ICU admissions is still priority for me, absolutely, but I don't know how well I could mentally endure the past month's isolation if it were to carry on the same for another 6-18 months.

I don’t want people to die from this virus and I have elderly family and friends
But I worry more for the thousands of people who will be unemployed and on the dole and the desperation and depression that will follow
I want to open this economy to save as many jobs as possible while accepting we will lose many jobs
I am not here saying my way is easy but i will not BS anyone - I have lived through poverty and witnessed the damage it causes , drug drink gambling addictions, children going hungry-
Let those who want to work go back
To work

citysights

lord quackinton wrote: »

I don’t want people to die from this virus and I have elderly family and friends
But I worry more for the thousands of people who will be unemployed and on the dole and the desperation and depression that will follow
I want to open this economy to save as many jobs as possible while accepting we will lose many jobs
I am not here saying my way is easy but i will not BS anyone - I have lived through poverty and witnessed the damage it causes , drug drink gambling addictions, children going hungry-
Let those who want to work go back
To work

Lots and lots of people are worried but surely we must have some positivity too. He paints a very bleak picture, we’ve made progress here, we’ve a beautiful well developed island here and loads of really really good people. Fingers crossed and trying to keep the best side out.

alwald

Jenbach110 wrote: »

As regards the US, applying Itilian figures on a larger population, we should expect 6000 deaths per day at peak?

This logic is flawed as both countries have different restrictions in place, different population age groups, different number of ICU beds per capita and the list is long.

ZX7R

lord quackinton wrote: »

Has everyone read this
Not a big fan of Hobbs but he is the first I have seen lay down the real harsh truths
Strictly over 18 only as Hobbs writes

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/eddie-hobbs-fasten-your-seatbelt-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-993618.html

I think it’s time people accept what is coming and also accept we must open now fully and I mean everything to try and protect as much of our internal economy as we can

Ah Eddie, I'm surprised he didn't crawl out from under his rock sooner

citysights

citysights wrote: »

Lots and lots of people are worried but surely we must have some positivity too. He paints a very bleak picture, we’ve made progress here, we’ve a beautiful well developed island here and loads of really really good people. Fingers crossed and trying to keep the best side out.

I understand what you're saying and agree.

However having a "beautiful well developed country and loads of really really good people" means absolutely nothing if people can't pay their mortgages. It means nothing if there is no tourism and the Wild Atlantic Way which support many of those tourism industries is shut down. It means nothing if business, factories, SMEs never open up again. It means nothing if people cannot buy or sell houses. The list goes on and on.

citysights

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I understand what you're saying and agree.

However having a "beautiful well developed country and loads of really really good people" means absolutely nothing if people can't pay their mortgages. It means nothing if there is no tourism and the Wild Atlantic Way which support many of those tourism industries is shut down. It means nothing if business, factories, SMEs never open up again. It means nothing if people cannot buy or sell houses. The list goes on and on.

I know what your saying Maggie and completely agree, we can’t put our heads in the sand and at the same time choosing optimism ( or trying to ) can’t be the worst thing . It’s not being blind it’s just that going down a dark tunnel of despair and feeling we’ve no hope means we’d all just give up, I’m not talking about the poster who posted the Eddie Hobbs article but more like all of us in general. I’m very upset also, even listened to some soothing music a while back just to remind myself of happier times and the fact that the human spirit can be healed and uplifted.So just trying to keep up the faith or whatever they say.

mouldybiscuits

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Getting on top of the virus and managing our ICU admissions is still priority for me, absolutely, but I don't know how well I could mentally endure the past month's isolation if it were to carry on the same for another 6-18 months.

You're absolutely not alone in that regard, there are a lot of people struggling with the situation. But we have to think of the bigger picture as like you said getting on top of the virus is our priority. Us mentally suffering for months is preventing other people from dying and families from grieving. We just have to try and get on as best we can because other people's lives are at stake and it's completely worth months of mental torture to save lives.

ShineOn7

lord quackinton wrote: »

Those who back this indefinite lockdown
How are you coping with what faces the economy
Are you not worried about your job and you children’s future
I need to know more about posters so I can understand there reasoning

Can I ask what is your personal situation
Before lockdown were you working in private sector, a student, on benefits, a public sector employee, receiving a pension, a renter, a mortgage holder, where you live

I work in finance, live in rural tipp, bought my home outright with money I earned working in Australia in mining,
We are still working and my job is safe but I expect to be told to take a 20% pay cut next month
And in December I expect government to raise taxes across the board and to slash public expenditure
The effects will be brutal and that is why we need to open immediately
The results of 2008 in my local town Were harrowing with many unemployed and suicides jumped but it took 3 years for me to accept that the main result of 2008 was rural Ireland took one hell of a beating and government did not care
The longer the lockdown lasts the very real chance What wealth is left in small towns and villages will disappear forever.
Instead of 10,000 or 20,000 dead nationally you will have many villages and towns turned into wastelands and the results of that will be with us for many years to come

We must open up fully For the good of the nation

I posted this elsewhere, I'll repeat it here because people's lack of common sense in all this is quite something




The world's economy is fúcked. So it won't matter if Ireland is "up and running" again in two months because by then America will be riddled with this, the Fed will give up trying to prop up the stock market artificially and we'll have 2008 type recession except times 10

Remember the last downturn? Well that's coming again except it's going to be on steroids

I'm very much a glass half full person but we need to be more pragmatic about this. People thinking that things will be back to normal by June need to wake up


2-4 years of economic upheaval is coming globally, not just to Ireland

Ace2007

lord quackinton wrote: »

I don’t want people to die from this virus and I have elderly family and friends
But I worry more for the thousands of people who will be unemployed and on the dole and the desperation and depression that will follow
I want to open this economy to save as many jobs as possible while accepting we will lose many jobs
I am not here saying my way is easy but i will not BS anyone - I have lived through poverty and witnessed the damage it causes , drug drink gambling addictions, children going hungry-
Let those who want to work go back
To work

It's very easy to say Oh i have elderly family and friends and then go on about worrying about the people who will be unemployed. You do realize that young people are dying from this virus?? 2 people under the age of 34 have died in Ireland - but you don't see that been broadcast all over the media?.

Approx 35% of all case admitted to ICU were people under the age of 54. Another 28% people in the range 55-64. So basically two thirds of ICU beds have been taken by people under age 65. 22% of all confirmed cases in Ireland have been hospitalized.

But despite this, you want more people to go to work. It will get to the stage that it won't be your elderly family and friends that will be at risk, it may be your siblings or your children, because the fact they may have a high % chance of living if they get the treatment wont' matter as there won't be any beds available, because they will be full of other young people.

May i ask why you haven't touched all the isolation, loneliness that this will cause people who are cocooing? People who will have lived through wars and poverty that majority of Irish people wouldn't even think possible. We are like 5/6 weeks into this - and you want people to just go back to work.

Cork Boy 53

citysights wrote: »

Lots and lots of people are worried but surely we must have some positivity too. He paints a very bleak picture, we’ve made progress here, we’ve a beautiful well developed island here and loads of really really good people. Fingers crossed and trying to keep the best side out.

Does anyone else think this comment reads like something Donald Trump would come out with?

citysights

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Does anyone else think this comment reads like something Donald Trump would come out with?

Cheap shot, it’s the truth this is a beautiful island.

Jenbach110

skallywag wrote: »

You are falling into the 'not a bad number' trap though. 33 deaths in a one day period is horrific.

But its not realistically, we need to apply rationalisation to the numbers.

Nermal

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The world's economy is fúcked. So it won't matter if Ireland is "up and running" again in two months

A) opening the domestic economy is still better than following the current course, even if we’re the only ones to do so

when a poster says ‘we’ need to go back to work, he may be referring to our trading partners as well

appledrop

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Ciara Kelly has a good article in the Indo today

"so keeping them until midnight on the May Bank Holiday is the right call.

But the lockdown cannot last too much longer than that, because if it does, the cure becomes worse than the disease. The economic fall out is too great and the job losses too high.

The knock-on effects on other non Covid-19 related aspects of people's mental and physical health means there is a tipping point where more people are harmed by lockdown than are saved"

She is spot on + she has had the virus and knows it's not a nice illness. I wonder have the government actually got advice from psychologists on the impact on peoples mental and physical health.

If we were in total lockdown + it meant that the virus went away it would be worth it but that's not going to happen. Of course we want to 'save' people from virus but not going to be possible in all cases + how many more people are we going to lose to mental health problems.

Very good article there in Irish Times a few weeks ago about over 70s who were staying at home. A lot of them lead very active life playing golf, meeting with there friends etc. From reading between the lines you get the impression that if total lockdown where they cant leave their house goes on for much long I'd say some of them would actually prefer to take their chances with the virus. We keep saying this will past but in some cases they have serious health conditions already so want to enjoy each day.

skallywag

Jenbach110 wrote: »

But its not realistically, we need to apply rationalisation to the numbers.

What is your yarkstick here though?

Would you say that 33 deaths per day is not bad, because the rate in, say, the UK, is nearly 1000 per day?

If the rate in the UK was, say, 10,000 per day, would that then mean that 300 per day for Ireland would not be horrific?

Or, if you extrapolate the 33 per day over a month, and it becomes 1000 or more per month, is that still 'not too bad' ?

The severity with which you class this current situation depends on the reference point you take. Some in the US are currently arguing that 2000 deaths per day is 'a good number'.

lord quackinton

Ace2007 wrote: »

It's very easy to say Oh i have elderly family and friends and then go on about worrying about the people who will be unemployed. You do realize that young people are dying from this virus?? 2 people under the age of 34 have died in Ireland - but you don't see that been broadcast all over the media?.

Approx 35% of all case admitted to ICU were people under the age of 54. Another 28% people in the range 55-64. So basically two thirds of ICU beds have been taken by people under age 65. 22% of all confirmed cases in Ireland have been hospitalized.

But despite this, you want more people to go to work. It will get to the stage that it won't be your elderly family and friends that will be at risk, it may be your siblings or your children, because the fact they may have a high % chance of living if they get the treatment wont' matter as there won't be any beds available, because they will be full of other young people.

May i ask why you haven't touched all the isolation, loneliness that this will cause people who are cocooing? People who will have lived through wars and poverty that majority of Irish people wouldn't even think possible. We are like 5/6 weeks into this - and you want people to just go back to work.

what are the mean and median ages of people dead from corona virus?
the rest of your post comes from you heart and so must be discounted
what is needed now are hard decisions made by people with their heads.
we must make decisions that protect all of society not the few.
we cannot expect young men and women who very likely wont even get the virus and if they did will recover in their homes be asked to give up plans for their future.
let people decide - you want to go back to work, school, living and really go to war with this virus then do it
or you can decide to hide away yourself in the hope we get a vaccine soon, then you do that.

pick a side and then get out of the way of the other side.

niallo27

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I posted this elsewhere, I'll repeat it here because people's lack of common sense in all this is quite something




The world's economy is fúcked. So it won't matter if Ireland is "up and running" again in two months because by then America will be riddled with this, the Fed will give up trying to prop up the stock market artificially and we'll have 2008 type recession except times 10

Remember the last downturn? Well that's coming again except it's going to be on steroids

I'm very much a glass half full person but we need to be more pragmatic about this. People thinking that things will be back to normal by June need to wake up


2-4 years of economic upheaval is coming globally, not just to Ireland

Your not a glass half full person if you believe this, believe me your not.

niallo27

skallywag wrote: »

What is your yarkstick here though?

Would you say that 33 deaths per day is not bad, because the rate in, say, the UK, is nearly 1000 per day?

If the rate in the UK was, say, 10,000 per day, would that then mean that 300 per day for Ireland would not be horrific?

Or, if you extrapolate the 33 per day over a month, and it becomes 1000 or more per month, is that still 'not too bad' ?

The severity with which you class this current situation depends on the reference point you take. Some in the US are currently arguing that 2000 deaths per day is 'a good number'.

What would you consider an acceptable amount of deaths per day to be, by acceptable I mean one where you would think, **** it could be a lot worse.

makeorbrake

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Once you enjoy paying €5000 for a loaf of bread (to pay for the flour and the baker who made it). Monopoly money. Or a return to the barter system- which given most of us have no tradeable skills leaves us ****ed.

Time for gold, silver and hard money.

BoatMad wrote: »

That only happens if you carry it too far , ie you let inflation get out of control , but currently deflation is the risk not inflation , moderate inflation is better
It can be done in a controlled way

We don't know that for sure. Quantitative Easing has been one ongoing mega experiment that nobody knows the full repercussions of. Sure, central banks managed to keep inflation down after that first raft of QE in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. However, we are now into much bigger amounts. Furthermore, there are fewer monetary measures open to central banks as they had already floored interest rates from back then.

It remains to be seen if they can keep inflation under control. It may be that they get to kick the can down the road and there's no day of reckoning for a decade - but sooner or later, this will have to be paid for. There's no such thing as free money. If that wasn't true, then we could just tell Revenue to print off whatever we owe them each year.

Blueshoe wrote: »

It's to keep the economy moving basically. People shouldn't save the money in the bank. Just spend it.

It can sometimes be a case of unintended consequences. In times past the Japanese tried helicopter money in order to get things moving not realising that the outcome was that people hoarded/saved it rather than spent it.

Ace2007

lord quackinton wrote: »

what are the mean and median ages of people dead from corona virus?
the rest of your post comes from you heart and so must be discounted
what is needed now are hard decisions made by people with their heads.
we must make decisions that protect all of society not the few.
we cannot expect young men and women who very likely wont even get the virus and if they did will recover in their homes be asked to give up plans for their future.
let people decide - you want to go back to work, school, living and really go to war with this virus then do it
or you can decide to hide away yourself in the hope we get a vaccine soon, then you do that.

pick a side and then get out of the way of the other side.

Comes from the heart? What are you talking about - i gave you the figures that show young people are ended up in hospital and ICU and then you come out with a comment "young men and women who very likely wont even get the virus and if they did will recover in their homes"

We aren't provided with the mean, only the median which has been explain hundreds of times on here, and it doesn't really tell us much overall.

Ok let's say john wants to go back to School, but his teachers don't want to risk their lives - what happens then?

It's laughable your approach - if you want to go back you can. So you could end up with health and safety issues - but let's not think about them?