Relaxation of restrictions

normanoffside

Ace2007 wrote: »

Mean has never been published - so that's you just believing some random poster. Feel free to find the official source.

Tony mentioned a Mean of 70 in Friday's Press conference (Median 82 IIRC)

I posted it on the main thread as I heard it

Here you go, this is the only recorded proof of it I can find:

https://www.clareecho.ie/confusion-on-total-covid-19-cases-in-ireland-with-69-people-diagnosed-in-clare/

Of the deaths to date, 70% were in a hospitalised setting, the median age was 82 and the mean age was 70. The age of those who have died range from 32 to 105

martingriff

Idbatterim wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207783/150-000-Brits-die-coronavirus-pandemic-domestic-violence-suicides.html

150,000 Brits will die an 'avoidable death' during coronavirus pandemic through depression, domestic violence and suicides
Fraser Nelson, editor of The Spectator, raised concerns of thousands of deaths
Predictions for 'indirect' coronavirus deaths could surpass those of COVID-19
The pandemic is expected to have a knock-on effect on people's mental health
Charities have recorded spikes in helplines from domestic abuse victims
Pressure is mounting on the government to reveal how lockdown will be eased

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/covid-19-is-likely-to-lead-to-an-increase-in-suicides/

Not surprised to see these issues not brought up by the irish politicians or media!

and before you bring "the daily mail" roll eyes :rolleyes: look at the sources they use! Nearly two weeks ago on the radio, I was hearing about the domestic violence increases here and we literally had just entered this ****!

All those issues were mentioned in media nearly every day. On the Late Late last friday they had a segment on domestic violence so you are wrong there. The vast vast majority is concerned with people of mental health and violence.

Idbatterim

Ace2007 wrote: »

Your saying it's not black and white but look at the posters who just want the economy to open etc.

Yes i seen that - but as a society we need to help each other - bit it mental health , exercise and ensure people are doing ok, now more than ever people have time - pick up the phone ring your mate that you haven't seen in 3/4 weeks etc.

On top of these suicides you talk about there are families out there that are anxious and scared of their lives that a loved one will die from this virus alone - because you can't even hold their hand - that's the reality of it.

If your sibling/spouse/parent gets this virus tomorrow - and is in hospital - you may never see that person alive again, may never even be able to hold their hand - you won't have a funeral for them... that's reality.

But sure look if we have our economy back, that's ok.....

I am not saying "throw open the doors on everything again" not a chance! Varadkar said earlier, "in a few weeks , months, it is going to be clear, we got some stuff right and some stuff wrong."

That is obvious, non of us have a crystal ball and of course they cant get everything right, I mean its the irish government we are talking about here, Ill credit them, if they get anything right!

BUT my point is and this is very obvious from others countries actions and words, they realise that this level of shut down, creates a lot of other problems, that is all I am saying, they can look down the road. The irish goverment, couldnt look past the end of its nose! And I can definitely see, there being major backlash and anger, when this is analysed down the road, for the way it was handled. I definetly speculate that the chances of that are easily higher than 50/50...

forget opening pubs , travel etc, likes resteraunts and cafes too in short term. what I think should be announced is, to give people hope, they plan on allowing small gatherings again, at least that way, people could meet up, even outside in garden, for bbq and few drinks etc. Re-open building suppliers , garden centers etc, I am not talking about a full blown re-opening of everything obviously...

CalamariFritti

Not sure this has been said or if it’s relevant. But I’ve seen people quoting that German representative study and some conclusions drawn from them.

The study seems helpful and seems to confirm lowish mortality rates. Something a lot of us suspected. And that’s encouraging.

However the release of the data Is not viewed without controversy back in Germany. And especially whether it was their place to make such early policy recommendations based on their data.
It appears it’s not an independent study. There appears to be business interest funding behind it,

Not saying they’re lying. Just putting that here as additional information people may want to be aware of.

lord quackinton

So posters here will be ok with forced cocooning of those over 70 and other at risk groups until we get a vaccine
Probably 2 years plus

What people on here are suggesting is we become a police state
Very nice

ShineOn7

niallo27 wrote: »

Your not a glass half full person if you believe this, believe me your not.

I know myself a lot better than you, but thanks anyway

I'm an optimist but I'm a realist too. And with Covid we need more realism than the usual Irish "ah sure, it'll be grand in a few weeks"

Sweet.Science

skallywag wrote: »

That is correct, it certainly hits the older a lot harder.

That said, it's effect on younger people is turning out to be much more severe than originally thought.

Look at Boris for example, he is 55 and was apparently very close to death by the latest reports which are coming out.

Though if you consider 55 as old in the first place then I can probably pick up my hat and leave the arena :pac:

No way he was close to death . He didnt even need a vantilator and was released from hospital 3 days after entering ICU . Which itself is nonsense . Nothing more than a PR job

niallo27

skallywag wrote: »

That is correct, it certainly hits the older a lot harder.

That said, it's effect on younger people is turning out to be much more severe than originally thought.

Look at Boris for example, he is 55 and was apparently very close to death by the latest reports which are coming out.

Though if you consider 55 as old in the first place then I can probably pick up my hat and leave the arena :pac:

But he is ok now, a man who looks incredibly out of shape and unhealthy and he beat it.

Idbatterim

lord quackinton wrote: »

So posters here will be ok with forced cocooning of those over 70 and other at risk groups until we get a vaccine
Probably 2 years plus

What people on here are suggesting is we become a police state
Very nice

I wouldnt say forced, they can make their own choice. Advised would be the word I use!

niallo27

lord quackinton wrote: »

So posters here will be ok with forced cocooning of those over 70 and other at risk groups until we get a vaccine
Probably 2 years plus

What people on here are suggesting is we become a police state
Very nice

Nobody is saying forced cocooning, they are free to do what they want. They are going to have to do this anyway to an extent until a vaccine comes.

alwald

Idbatterim wrote: »

The normal rule for an epidemic is that you can say it is over when you've gone two 95% confidence intervals of the incubation period without a new case. This equates to about 28 days for SARS-CoV2.

Another way of looking at this is that we need to get the R0 below 1 to have fewer infections every day than the previous day.

Day 0: beginning of lockdown 5000 new cases per day
Infection Cycle 1: 4,000
IC 2: 3,200
IC 3: 2560
IC 4: 2048
IC 5: 1638
IC 6: 1310
IC 7: 1049
IC 14: 220
IC 21: 46
IC 28: 10

So what does the above tell us?
Well, it tells us that even if do a massive lockdown obeyed by 90% of the people 90% of the time with 90% effectiveness for 28 days if we go back to "life as normal" after that we'll be right back where we starting 28 days later.

So, where to from there?
Well, it seems that the best way to play this would be to keep a really strict lockdown for about 28 days and then reduce it slightly, combined with advice for people to ALL wear masks when out and about, really strong, rapid testing and contact tracing.

The 28 days gives the state the time to ramp up swabbing ability and test throughput ability as well as to train and man contact tracing centres and establish rapid response teams to respond once a new case is confirmed.

After another 28 days go by the government could look at loosening restrictions a little more if the death rate was on the lower side.

This is a very good post but I won't quote it all and I will focus on the key elements of phase 1, our current phase, which is in line with what myself and few others here are talking about.
It's all about listening to the professional advice and following the guidelines instead of insisting on a virtual forum to lift the restrictions on Tuesday and give a choice to people - which we know won't happen anyway lol.

CtevenSrowder

Sweet.Science wrote: »

No way he was close to death . He didnt even need a vantilator and was released from hospital 3 days after entering ICU . Which itself is nonsense . Nothing more than a PR job

A PR job! You can't be serious writing that.

Idbatterim

they talk about modelling. I would like to start seeing modelling, for indirect deaths caused from this virus. From suicides and now people with other issues not going to hospitals, out of fear, which I totally get and which has been well documented!

Cupatae

lord quackinton wrote: »

So posters here will be ok with forced cocooning of those over 70 and other at risk groups until we get a vaccine
Probably 2 years plus

What people on here are suggesting is we become a police state
Very nice

Are you incapable of understanding why these things are in place?

Who'd run this police state? id imagine most gardai would walk rather than impose gestapo rules you seem to think will be... you forget there families are under the same rules aswell. Stop being daft and over the top with absolute nonsense.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

But he is ok now, a man who looks incredibly out of shape and unhealthy and he beat it.

Because an ICU bed was available for him, and top notch care. That’s why we’re working so hard to ensure our ICUs don’t become overwhelmed. By his own account, he’d be dead otherwise.

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

Because an ICU bed was available for him, and top notch care. That’s why we’re working so hard to ensure our ICUs don’t become overwhelmed. By his own account, he’d be dead otherwise.

He was in and out of icu very quick in fairness wasnt he. Are hospitals in England overrun, they should be by now considering the way they approached this.

martingriff

Idbatterim wrote: »

they talk about modelling. I would like to start seeing modelling, for indirect deaths caused from this virus. From suicides and now people with other issues not going to hospitals, out of fear, which I totally get and which has been well documented!

Your right those who need to go to hospital should do and has been said. How do you say we can help this

Jenbach110

If we get to May 5th with similar death/hospilisation rates as we currently have will people happily take a further extension of current restrictions?

ShineOn7

KiKi III wrote: »

Because an ICU bed was available for him, and top notch care. That’s why we’re working so hard to ensure our ICUs don’t become overwhelmed. By his own account, he’d be dead otherwise.

This

Plus he absolutely had extra care and attention given to him. As Leo would if it happened and the Trump fella would have many, many extra staff looking over him if this happened to him

Why?

Well if the leader of a country dies from this that country's moral (unless he was a complete dictator) falls off a cliff. Their economy gets worse than it even is now and the whole thing just snowballs

niallo27

We had a big drop in deaths today and we keep getting told we are 2 or 3 weeks behind Italy who looks like they had their peak 2 and a half weeks ago then can someone tell me why it would be crazy to think we are hitting our peak here too.

Idbatterim

Jenbach110 wrote: »

If we get to May 5th with similar death/hospilisation rates as we currently have will people happily take a further extension of current restrictions?

the idiots need to start giving some people some light at the end of the tunnel, nearly if they dont even have a plan. That is what people need now. They should say, that they have a plan in mind to wind down SOME restrictions, early may, all going to plan...

this bull**** of "we dont have a clue" I mean irish politicians admitting the truth for once, is incredible ! but people need hope... not this dispair and even the government admitting they dont have a clue

niallo27

ShineOn7 wrote: »

This

Plus he absolutely had extra care and attention given to him. As Leo would if it happened and the Trump fella would have many, many extra staff looking over him if this happened to him

Why?

Well if the leader of a country dies from this that country's moral (unless he was a complete dictator) falls off a cliff. Their economy gets worse than it even is now and the whole thing just snowballs

I understand the extra care but this is a new virus with no cure, what extra treatment could he get.

Sierra Oscar

niallo27 wrote: »

We had a big drop in deaths today and we keep getting told we are 2 or 3 weeks behind Italy who looks like they had their peak 2 and a half weeks ago then can someone tell me why it would be crazy to think we are hitting our peak here too.

We're clearly not following Italy's path and haven't been for some time now. Who in recent days has been saying we will have a similar experience to Italy?

It's perfectly plain to see what the measures we have introduced have significantly flattened the curve here. Our peak may be delayed but it will be nothing like Italy's.

kingbhome

Is traveling for a cousins funeral essinital

ShineOn7

niallo27 wrote: »

I understand the extra care but this is a new virus with no cure, what extra treatment could he get.

I meant extra bodies, extra staff

The HSE insider doing the AMA confirmed in the Boris Intensive Care thread that this is standard practice for a country's leader/PM/president

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

We had a big drop in deaths today and we keep getting told we are 2 or 3 weeks behind Italy who looks like they had their peak 2 and a half weeks ago then can someone tell me why it would be crazy to think we are hitting our peak here too.

Because we had a spike yesterday. Over 700 new cases today too.

You’re only looking at the bits of data you like.

KiKi III

kingbhome wrote: »

Is traveling for a cousins funeral essinital

Only immediate family are supposed to attend funerals at the moment. That said, my guess is you’d be waved on by most guards.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

He was in and out of icu very quick in fairness wasnt he. Are hospitals in England overrun, they should be by now considering the way they approached this.

What makes you think three nights in ICU is quick?

FloatingVoter

I have a cousin who is one of my best friends. I have others that I'd walk past on the street without recognising them. You'll know yourself.

Discodog

road_high wrote: »

Garden centres would fall under the same category. It would be more appropriate for the individuals actually working in different areas to advise than me I think.

Garden Centres can open & some might on Tuesday but others, like Woodies, have said they won't.

A lot of businesses decided to close even though they could legally stay open. A client of mine closed his businesses to protect the staff.