Relaxation of restrictions

MaureensFry

pjohnson wrote: »

So if you wont half ass a roof repair you shouldn't half ass this. A rush to remove restrictions will cause more damage and make the whole thing last longer.

No one is rushing. Restrictions will start to be lifted in a few weeks when the curve starts to flatten with restrictions getting more lenient.

Unfortunately it won't favour the elderly or those with underlying conditions. Once the health service can deal with the number of people who contact it then we are nearly there.

I suspect middle of May when things start going back to some what normal with a lot of the restrictions been lifted.

Stheno

KiKi III wrote: »

How will it change your opinion if tomorrow’s death figure is 40-50? Will it alter your opinion? It seems like your mind is made up one way or the other.

I’d be delighted if the figure stayed at 14 and lower but I don’t think that’s going to be the case.

Kiki

Consider the following

1. We've gone from a growth rate of 33% to about 12% to now under 10% in the past month. Today was less than 5%
2. The RO has gone from over 3 to 1ish last week, and is expected to reduce
3. ICU admissions are stable

On top of that regarding testing the results were being held up due to lack of chemicals (buffer and reagent) to process the results

We are now making the buffer and have secured a supply of 900000 samples of reagent

Contact tracing is being ramped up
Additional labs have started to come on stream

I'm hoping all of the above are positive indications and that testing gets ramped up this week and the next so there is an eating of restrict IP ons on May 5

And I'm one of the people who will be working from home if they dont lift that

ShineOn7

Stheno wrote: »

According to Dr Tony Friday, median age of deaths was 80, mean was70 iirc and the range was from 32 to 102

To use Reddit speak, explain to me like I'm 5 (or even 10) years old the difference between Median and Mean if you can please

Median is the average I think?

Padre_Pio

ShineOn7 wrote: »

To use Reddit speak, explain to me like I'm 5 (or even 10) years old the difference between Median and Mean if you can please

Median is the average I think?

Mean is the average. If you have 9 values, add them all up and divide by 9.

Median is the middle. If you have 9 values, rank them from high to low and pick the middle (fifth) one

stephenjmcd

MaureensFry wrote: »

No one is rushing. Restrictions will start to be lifted in a few weeks when the curve starts to flatten with restrictions getting more lenient.

Unfortunately it won't favour the elderly or those with underlying conditions. Once the health service can deal with the number of people who contact it then we are nearly there.

I suspect middle of May when things start going back to some what normal with a lot of the restrictions been lifted.

Middle of may might be a little early. The initial restrictions on some business might be lifted first week of may, hair dressers, cafes doing take outs etc. Give that 2 weeks to see where we're at, then more businesses get added into the services allowed to open. Hopefully by the start of June depending on where we're at you might see what would have been deemed non essential offices start to open.

Depending then on how things are going end of June only then you might see hotels, restaurants & bars being allowed to open but with reduced capacity to start with.

Concerts and sports events, july for small events under 1k, August maybe for those above that but with capacity still limited.

That's all just a guess on my part but it's taking into account the very slow reopening that'll be done in stages followed by a review of the data after each stage to see if we can progress to the next set of reopenings

ShineOn7

MaureensFry wrote: »

I suspect middle of May when things start going back to some what normal with a lot of the restrictions been lifted.

My lord above, lamp lightning Jaysus. Give me strength

Time to unfollow this thread for a bit. Some people are dreaming

ShineOn7

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Mean is the average. If you have 9 values, add them all up and divide by 9.

Median is the middle. If you have 9 values, rank them from high to low and pick the middle (fifth) one

Very simple to understand. Thanks

Blueshoe

Sunday Indo has the realistic full opening of the economy in July with tiered sectors (different industries) getting back to business before then.

They have other timelines listed too but they paint this as most realistic. First tier ready to go by early may

niallo27

pjohnson wrote: »

Not if its a decent guy in the first place who does it right.

Ok I'll ask again, how do you expect to fix this right now so as you say the roof doesnt leak again.

Igotadose

Stheno wrote: »

Kiki

Consider the following

1. We've gone from a growth rate of 33% to about 12% to now under 10% in the past month. Today was less than 5%
2. The RO has gone from over 3 to 1ish last week, and is expected to reduce
3. ICU admissions are stable

On top of that regarding testing the results were being held up due to lack of chemicals (buffer and reagent) to process the results

We are now making the buffer and have secured a supply of 900000 samples of reagent

Contact tracing is being ramped up
Additional labs have started to come on stream

I'm hoping all of the above are positive indications and that testing gets ramped up this week and the next so there is an eating of restrict IP ons on May 5

And I'm one of the people who will be working from home if they dont lift that

Personally very uncomfortable with the data we're seeing. If you look at number of cases, they're doubling about every 7 days (data from wikipedia.) Reading various articles about the HSE and how things like setting up contact tracing centres has been bungled, they apparently tried to set one up in Limerick, took a few days of not being able to get e-mail addresses right and then replaced everyone in charge. They've got a new executive in charge of testing who isn't a doctor, but an MBA with some banking experience.

Tests take way too long to come back - many stories of tests being taken and responses not being received for weeks. Anecdotal stories of 1 person with covid who was in contact with 8 others, none of the others were tested in a timely way (tests were taken but they came down with obvious symptoms within a few days, and the tests never came back anyway.)

Sorry, but I think we're not cresting anytime soon, and I doubt the HSE will be able to tell us much that's verifiable and useful. They're handling this about as well as they handle anything, i.e., badly to catastrophically.

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

To use Reddit speak, explain to me like I'm 5 (or even 10) years old the difference between Median and Mean if you can please

Median is the average I think?

Median in the 'middle' number
Mean is the result of adding them all up and dividing by the the amount of cases.

So to give an example:

1, 9, 50

Median is 9
Mean is 20

normanoffside

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Mean is the average.

Median is the middle.

I'm sorry, my OCD won't let me not correct you.

Both are averages.
There are 3 types of average- Mean, Median and Mode.

niallo27

Blueshoe wrote: »

Sunday Indo has the realistic full opening of the economy in July with tiered sectors (different industries) getting back to business before then.

They have other timelines listed too but they paint this as most realistic. First tier ready to go by early may

Most people could get on board with this. A little back every few weeks would be something to aim for.

castletownman

I don't why they can't acknowledge that for whatever reason some counties are faring better than others, and ease the restrictions to reflect this. For example, it seems that Dublin, Wicklow, Kildare and Cork seem to be the worst affected, so any lock-down would last longer in those areas, with the gradual easing of measures everywhere else after May 5 as cases *hopefully* dwindle.

Blueshoe

castletownman wrote: »

I don't why they can't acknowledge that for whatever reason some counties are faring better than others, and ease the restrictions to reflect this. For example, it seems that Dublin, Wicklow, Kildare and Cork seem to be the worst affected, so any lock-down would last longer in those areas, with the gradual easing of measures everywhere else after May 5 as cases *hopefully* dwindle.

Ireland is too small to section it off like that. Wouldn't work

Padre_Pio

normanoffside wrote: »

I'm sorry, my OCD won't let me not correct you.

Both are averages.
There are 3 types of average- Mean, Median and Mode.

You're completely right, I put that in because when people say "average" they're nearly always talking about the mean.

martingriff

ShineOn7 wrote: »

My lord above, lamp lightning Jaysus. Give me strength

Time to unfollow this thread for a bit. Some people are dreaming

So what do you think will happen.

I for 1 believe by the 5th there will be a lifting where shops and restaurant can open with conditions attached. For restaurants it will be spacing restriction and for shop they may have to limit the amount in at 1 time. Those who can should still work from home and construction sites will have to have masks and gloves and cleaning orders

lord quackinton

its early in this crisis and many people are not thinking straight, its all kumbaya at the moment

wait until the generous 350 becomes 203 and is means tested
wait until the public sector have there wages cut
wait until taxes increase
wait until the private sector turn on the public sector
wait until everyone turns on those claiming benefits many through no fault of their own

i said before in relation to this lockdown that there will be blood.
people will turn on those who championed this lock down - the politicians, the health experts and the public state employees who backed and policed this lockdown.
if you dont believe me look at the scapegoats of 2008, when it was an economic global crisis that was to blame.
this time people are choosing to embrace the crisis and just like the 2008 scapegoats they will not be spared.

C.O.Y.B.I.B

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I don't think it's possible to be more specific than 'community transmission' in a lot of cases

But I'm thinking that we should soon be seeing the results of our lockdown. Most people I know are in contact with a very small number of people. Assuming 90% of people are the same it should be possible to trace (and publish) sources of community transmission fairly soon .It would give a good insight into sources of community transmission.
What would be needed would be fast turnaround on testing , but again lockdown being observed by the majority should mean less people getting tested .
I also think with the existing increased awareness around transmission along with the information from above , we might be able to better stay on top of this .

yosemitesam1

KiKi III wrote: »

There is also encouraging data around the rate of hospitalisation and need for ICU if these numbers are correct which it seems they are.

https://mobile.twitter.com/datavizireland?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1248292473476198400&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fembed.scribblelive.com%2Fwidgets%2Fembed%2Fpost.aspx%3Fpost-id%3D1187710614

If this is right, the restrictions are working really well. We should resist the illogical but tempting urge to say “these restrictions should be lifted because they are working really well.”

That would only result in us going back into another lockdown again, which would be really hard to take. Let’s get the job done now.

Is there any evidence we can get the job done in one go? Other coronavirus strains are able to reactivate and cause anything from asymptomatic shedding to full symptoms. If that is the case with this strain it means restrictions until vaccine is rolled out if the virus is to be contained as much as possible.

Ned Led Zeppo

The restrictions should not be lifted till a vaccine is made available to the entire world.
I believe the current restrictions will be still in place for the next 1-2 years.

Phoebas

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Is there any evidence we can get the job done in one go? Other coronavirus strains are able to reactivate and cause anything from asymptomatic shedding to full symptoms. If that is the case with this strain it means restrictions until vaccine is rolled out if the virus is to be contained as much as possible.

No. Far too late for that.
Restrictions of one kind or another for a couple of years.

TheCitizen

lord quackinton wrote: »

its early in this crisis and many people are not thinking straight, its all kumbaya at the moment

wait until the generous 350 becomes 203 and is means tested
wait until the public sector have there wages cut
wait until taxes increase
wait until the private sector turn on the public sector
wait until everyone turns on those claiming benefits many through no fault of their own

i said before in relation to this lockdown that there will be blood.
people will turn on those who championed this lock down - the politicians, the health experts and the public state employees who backed and policed this lockdown.
if you dont believe me look at the scapegoats of 2008, when it was an economic global crisis that was to blame.
this time people are choosing to embrace the crisis and just like the 2008 scapegoats they will not be spared.

Who were the ‘08 scapegoats? In ‘08 it would have been easier for anger to be manifested in public unrest and bar a few largely peaceful demonstrations nothing much happened. There will be no unrest on account of this Covid crisis and the response to it, nothing at all. You’re scaremongering and talking gibberish like several others at different points in this thread

Jenbach110

Ned Led Zeppo wrote: »

The restrictions should not be lifted till a vaccine is made available to the entire world.
I believe the current restrictions will be still in place for the next 1-2 years.

Would it be worth extending the restrictions for maybe 20 years? A just in case approach.
The only pressing issue would be that Liverpool would then be 50 years waiting on a title

Padre_Pio

martingriff wrote: »

So what do you think will happen.

I for 1 believe by the 5th there will be a lifting where shops and restaurant can open with conditions attached. For restaurants it will be spacing restriction and for shop they may have to limit the amount in at 1 time. Those who can should still work from home and construction sites will have to have masks and gloves and cleaning orders

Say I have a restaurant with 60 seats.

Social distancing of 1m min means I have to take 40 seats away. Everyone is fearful of crowds so few are bothering to venture out. How does this work exactly?

KrustyUCC

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Well if Ciara Kelly says we need to lift restrictions what are we waiting for?

What did she say that you disagree with?

Loafing Oaf

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Middle of may might be a little early. The initial restrictions on some business might be lifted first week of may, hair dressers, cafes doing take outs etc. Give that 2 weeks to see where we're at, then more businesses get added into the services allowed to open. Hopefully by the start of June depending on where we're at you might see what would have been deemed non essential offices start to open.

Depending then on how things are going end of June only then you might see hotels, restaurants & bars being allowed to open but with reduced capacity to start with.

Concerts and sports events, july for small events under 1k, August maybe for those above that but with capacity still limited.

That's all just a guess on my part but it's taking into account the very slow reopening that'll be done in stages followed by a review of the data after each stage to see if we can progress to the next set of reopenings

Anyone hazard a guess where religious ceremonies would fit into this timeline? Going by purely public health grounds, they should probably be near the end alongside the concerts etc. but that would probably cause uproar. Could you have 'socially distanced' masses I wonder...

Deeper Blue

Ned Led Zeppo wrote: »

The restrictions should not be lifted till a vaccine is made available to the entire world.
I believe the current restrictions will be still in place for the next 1-2 years.

I swear people must get a kick out of posting drivel like this and winding other people up

Gavlor

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Say I have a restaurant with 60 seats.

Social distancing of 1m min means I have to take 40 seats away. Everyone is fearful of crowds so few are bothering to venture out. How does this work exactly?

There’s a difference between won’t open and can’t open. If your particular business model doesn’t fit the social distancing criteria then you probably won’t open until that aspect is lifted. But a lift of total lockdown means you can open which at least starts the wheel turning again.

lord quackinton

TheCitizen wrote: »

Who were the ‘08 scapegoats? In ‘08 it would have been easier for anger to be manifested in public unrest and bar a few largely peaceful demonstrations nothing much happened. There will be no unrest on account of this Covid crisis and the response to it, nothing at all. You’re scaremongering and talking gibberish like several others at different points in this thread

Were you very young in 2008??

To this day
People still go on about the banks
And fianna Fáil
And the Green Party
And the water charges
And the usc
And worst of all how Brian lenihan was treated

I understand many young people are ignorant of what happened back then
It was hell, for me it was the not knowing daily what would collapse, what jobs would go
unfortunately those days are back again

I don’t want to argue or embarrass you or other posters but it is best we talk openly about what awaits all of us