Relaxation of restrictions

martingriff

Cupatae wrote: »

Some how the tread has got to a point of "Lift the lockdown because of depression" truly amazing to withness.

Well in fairness depression can be pretty bad and anyone can get it and that is why I would ask people to get in contact with people just for a chat to say hello and show you are there because you may not know who has it

the kelt

alwald wrote: »

What was my thinking at the time as I feel you still don't understand it yet?



What's the criteria for ensuring we got to the safety stage?

I’ve no idea what the criteria is in all honesty. We can only rely on what the experts tell us in that regard although it was encouraging to see Simon Harris give some guidance in regards to that once the R0 goes below 1 some for the restrictions can be lifted.

After that then it’s really up in the air if the R0 rises again.

What’s your own view?

Cupatae

Jenbach110 wrote: »

All the intellegence in the world will struggle to implement the correct course of action when the measured data is so innaccurate.

Not until the exact infection/death rate is accurately measured, can it be decided whats the most effective approach to combat covid

So what do you want done? what would make Jenbach happy, whats the silver bullet for all this?

alwald

Jenbach110 wrote: »

All the intellegence in the world will struggle to implement the correct course of action when the measured data is so innaccurate.

Not until the exact infection/death rate is accurately measured, can it be decided whats the most effective approach to combat covid

We know that no country is anywhere near this level of accuracy and yet you request the current measures to be lifted...I don't quite follow your logic here to be honest.

Jenbach110

ShineOn7 wrote: »

For those who still think the restrictions are too much



https://twitter.com/i/status/1249693986769559552

Well as sure as s### he is not going to put a model forward that approach was incorrect.

Those models have been incredibly innaccurate in the past

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

For those who still think the restrictions are too much



https://twitter.com/i/status/1249693986769559552

PS; RTE's usual high standards in place

"there would have been 120,000 news cases of Covid"

the kelt

KiKi III wrote: »

In the past I’ve done general talk therapy and while that helped in ways, I’m doing CBT now and it’s way better because it gives you actual tools to put into practice during the week. I find it much more practical and combines with some other stuff I’m doing (meditation, practicing gratitude, journaling) I’m holding up much better than I would have expected.

I still falter at times. I had a three hour argument on here the other day about something I don’t even care about that much but I just got sucked into it and I could only see that after - bad days can manifest in funny ways. But overall it’s definitely helping and I’d highly recommend it.

Lol in regards to your last paragraph I know exactly what you mean.

Cupatae

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Well as sure as s### he is not going to put a model forward that approach was incorrect.

Those models have been incredibly innaccurate in the past

Come on you ve been banging on about lifting restrictions, you are saying all the intelligence and education in the world are no good, the experts are pointless..

Hit us with it how do we solve it? whats your solution?

Jenbach110

alwald wrote: »

We know that no country is anywhere near this level of accuracy and yet you request the current measures to be lifted...I don't quite follow your logic here to be honest.

Many more infected than we have measured, thus a much lower death rate

lainey_d_123

Stheno wrote: »

Do you have somewhere to live in Ireland if you got a flight back?

Not really, and if I did, I wouldn't feel right travelling right now or moving in with new people, as it goes against all the guidelines. I think it's only right to stay where I am until there has been some sort of development re antibody testing or the lockdown has been lifted.

I plan to move into a better place either here or there as soon as it's feasible. I do realise I'm far luckier than most in that I don't have crippling financial issues - I know that I can live somewhere a bit better eventually, and a lot of people around here cannot do that.

Jenbach110

Cupatae wrote: »

Come on you ve been banging on about lifting restrictions, you are saying all the intelligence and education in the world are no good, the experts are pointless..

Hit us with it how do we solve it? whats your solution?

Measured data, follow the Icelandic model

alwald

the kelt wrote: »

I’ve no idea what the criteria is in all honesty. We can only rely on what the experts tell us in that regard although it was encouraging to see Simon Harris give some guidance in regards to that once the R0 goes below 1 some for the restrictions can be lifted.

After that then it’s really up in the air if the R0 rises again.

What’s your own view?

We are beginning to get somewhere now as I agree with the R0 to go below 1. This is why there is a lockdown now. Rgarding the next steps, here is an extract from an interview of the BBC with Dr David Nabarro, the WHO's Covid-19 envoy:

He said that people would need to become accustomed to a "new reality".

He told the BBC: "Some form of facial protection, I'm sure, is going to become the norm, not least to give people reassurance.

"But, I would say, don't imagine that you can do what you like when you are wearing a mask."

Dr Nabarro added that people's lifestyles would need to change.

He said: "Because this virus isn't going to go away, and we don't know whether people who have had the virus stay immune afterwards and will not get it again.

"And, we don't know when we will have a vaccine.

"So, what we are saying is get societies defended.

"Yes, we will have to wear masks.

"Yes, there will have to be more physical distancing.

I put in bold the key pieces for me, which are also based on the advice of the experts, some of which is in relation to the going back to normality.

KiKi III

retro:electro wrote: »

That’s an unfair comparison. Nobody “arrives at ICU” because they’re feeling depressed, but they may arrive at ICU as a consequence of their depression and an attempt made on their life. And in that case their condition would be taken every bit as serious as someone who had grave virus symptoms.

Tbh I don’t really even get where you’re going with the point above but I wanted to respond to this post because I felt it was a trivial comparison.

I’ll tell you a story.

About three years ago on Stephen’s Day after a huge row with my family I left my home and got the train back to Dublin.

I was seriously considering harming myself or suicide so I called a helpline for people suffering from depression. The woman I spoke to told me to go to A&E, so I went to the Mater.

I spoke to the triage nurse and then they left me in a room for ages. I don’t know how long, maybe a couple of hours. No one checked on me, or so much as offered me a glass of water.

After a few hours I felt a little better so I decided to leave. They told me I wasn’t allowed to leave because I had said I was at risk of harming myself. I said I was leaving anyway. They said they’d have to call the Gardai if I did. I told them to do that if they needed to but I was going home.

A long time later, maybe a year ago, I told my doctor friend that story. I was explaining that I thought that as someone at risk of suicide I’d been treated terribly.

She said “Yeah, but Kiki, the doctors were probably trying to revive someone who had been in a car crash or was having a heart attack. It’s tough but you had to come second.”

So when I paint that picture, I’m talking directly from my own experience.

I still think the nurses could have been a lot kinder and the care could have been a lot better, but I understand that people who are at immediate risk of dying have to take precedence over people who are depressed.

So I hope you understand, it’s far from a trivial comparison. It’s a lesson I had to learn the really hard way.

Thelonious Monk

I used to live in London, there are green spaces everywhere, way more than Dublin. You could easily go out for a walk and sit in a park for a while, if even for 10 or 20 minutes. If the police came along they'd just move you on, they're not going to arrest you. You are not going to be publicly shamed unless you're part of a party of people boozing or something. People struggling in small flats etc can still get outside. My gf lives in a flat in Dublin 1 and goes for a walk every day, she has no garden, it sucks but Jasus, let's not be overly dramatic.

Cupatae

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Measured data, follow the Icelandic model

How do we do that, say we lift the restrictions tomorrow as you want what then? You've happily been shooting down everyone else, surely you can do better than a one liner

niallo27

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Well as sure as s### he is not going to put a model forward that approach was incorrect.

Those models have been incredibly innaccurate in the past

Exactly why are we not seeing a crazy amount of deaths in Sweden using these same models.

alwald

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Many more infected than we have measured, thus a much lower death rate

I totally agree with the first part but do we test all those who died outside the hospital/ICUs to know for sure that the cause wasn't C-19?

Cupatae

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Measured data, follow the Icelandic model

Im interested to hear how you plan on implementing, the Icelandic model on Ireland

Iceland has a population of 365000

How do we go about implementing that for the 5 million here ?

niallo27

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I used to live in London, there are green spaces everywhere, way more than Dublin. You could easily go out for a walk and sit in a park for a while, if even for 10 or 20 minutes. If the police came along they'd just move you on, they're not going to arrest you. You are not going to be publicly shamed unless you're part of a party of people boozing or something. People struggling in small flats etc can still get outside. My gf lives in a flat in Dublin 1 and goes for a walk every day, she has no garden, it sucks but Jasus, let's not be overly dramatic.

Is the real issue, being able to go for a walk and being bored. The real issue is that most of us will be broke after this and life will be ****. This is the main crux of the issue not because we cant go for a walk in the park.

STB.

martingriff wrote: »

Your right they have but for most we think for a good reason. From the 5th we will see phased relaxation with social distancing, pubs and restaurants (who can separate people) will be one of the last with travel been last

Yeah, that's not going to happen.

The next 3 weeks are about slowing the spread, not overwhelming ICU's and saving lives. 1000 cases today. We are now over 10,600. There are large numbers being admitted to hospital, not just ICU. Of the 10,600. 10,247 are active cases, and in turn 194 are in serious or critical condition.

If you don't see the bigger picture, you are living in la la land. And there are quite a few in this thread who clearly are.

Stheno

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Not really, and if I did, I wouldn't feel right travelling right now or moving in with new people, as it goes against all the guidelines. I think it's only right to stay where I am until there has been some sort of development re antibody testing or the lockdown has been lifted.

I plan to move into a better place either here or there as soon as it's feasible. I do realise I'm far luckier than most in that I don't have crippling financial issues - I know that I can live somewhere a bit better eventually, and a lot of people around here cannot do that.

Travelling home to Ireland is not ag as inst irish Government advice that I'm aware of so that wouldn't BBC e against guidelines.

If youd family to stay with your have to self isolate for two weeks

Thelonious Monk

niallo27 wrote: »

Is the real issue, being able to go for a walk and being bored. The real issue is that most of us will be broke after this and life will be ****. This is the main crux of the issue not because we cant go for a walk in the park.

Yes and there's no avoiding that no matter when Ireland reopens. We're heading for a global depression. Enjoy the ride, at least we don't live in some total mess of a country, it's going to get really bad in poorer countries.

Jenbach110

Cupatae wrote: »

How do we do that, say we lift the restrictions tomorrow as you want what then?

Ive seen no posters suggest all restrictions lifted tomorrow.
Comments like this discredit your argument.

the kelt

alwald wrote: »

We are beginning to get somewhere now as I agree with the R0 to go below 1. This is why there is a lockdown now. Rgarding the next steps, here is an extract from an interview of the BBC with Dr David Nabarro, the WHO's Covid-19 envoy:

He said that people would need to become accustomed to a "new reality".

He told the BBC: "Some form of facial protection, I'm sure, is going to become the norm, not least to give people reassurance.

"But, I would say, don't imagine that you can do what you like when you are wearing a mask."

Dr Nabarro added that people's lifestyles would need to change.

He said: "Because this virus isn't going to go away, and we don't know whether people who have had the virus stay immune afterwards and will not get it again.

"And, we don't know when we will have a vaccine.

"So, what we are saying is get societies defended.

"Yes, we will have to wear masks.

"Yes, there will have to be more physical distancing.

I put in bold the key pieces for me, which are also based on the advice of the experts, some of which is in relation to the going back to normality.

Yet we have been told that masks are of little benefit by the HSE which does seem odd and there seems to be a split amongst various nations as to their approach in that regard.

I expect social distancing as the norm for the foreseeable future until a vaccine. One of the issues with masks for me is the false sense of security it brings.

alwald

niallo27 wrote: »

Exactly why are we not seeing a crazy amount of deaths in Sweden using these same models.

You will understand better if you compare all the available data of Sweden versus its neighboring countries...Google isn't your forte so it might take you time .

martingriff

STB. wrote: »

Yeah, that's not going to happen.

The next 3 weeks are about slowing the spread, not overwhelming ICU's and saving lives. 1000 cases today. We are now over 10,600. There are large numbers being admitted to hospital, not just ICU. Of the 10,600. 10,247 are active cases, and in turn 194 are in serious or critical condition.

If you don't see the bigger picture, you are living in la la land. And there are quite a few in this thread who clearly are.

So if not by the 5th (that is the 5th May) when

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

Yeah, that's not going to happen.

The next 3 weeks are about slowing the spread, not overwhelming ICU's and saving lives. 1000 cases today. We are now over 10,600. There are large numbers being admitted to hospital, not just ICU. Of the 10,600. 10,247 are active cases, and in turn 194 are in serious or critical condition.

If you don't see the bigger picture, you are living in la la land. And there are quite a few in this thread who clearly are.

What the **** was the last month about so if the next 3 are about slowing the curve. Half of that 1000 was from a backlog, why would you not say that.

Cupatae

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Ive seen no posters suggest all restrictions lifted tomorrow.
Comments like this discredit your argument.

Come on now dont try duck out of it now when pressed for answers you want the restrictions lifted via the icelandic model i wanna know how your gonna implement a model Based on a population of 365 000 on 5 million here in ireland, ill let you back track, when you get the restrictions lifted what then? whats the first port of call?..

GazzaL

Looking at the data from Ireland, Italy, Spain, France and Belgium, 42-57% of deaths from the virus appear to have occured in nursing homes. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests

We need to protect the elderly and vulnerable, particular in nursing home settings. Whatever PPE needed to work there, even if that means full hazmat suits, and whatever cleaning/hygiene products required also. Similarly, social distancing and extra precautions, and financial support, will be required for elderly and vulnerable people, people with underlying health conditions.

However, we also need to get the young, fit and healthy back to work.

Jenbach110

Cupatae wrote: »

Im interested to hear how you plan on implementing, the Icelandic model on Ireland

Iceland has a population of 365000

How do we go about implementing that for the 5 million here ?

Look your right its difficult. We wont do it.
Makes much more sense for everyone to stay at home for 2 years