Relaxation of restrictions

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

There were light restrictions four weeks ago, but people were still seeing their families, going to the beach/ park etc, a lot more people were still going to work.

The lockdown as we now know it has only been in place for 2.5 weeks.

Well I was following the restrictions, it's been a longer for most people. Dont presume we were all disregarding the rules if you were doing it yourself.

Professor Moriarty

STB. wrote: »

They are not testing. They already have a 8% death rate of those they did test. Over 600 dead and 900 critical.

It does matter about positive tests. The testing regime is carried out in conjunction with isolation and contact tracing, and social distancing measures. Done correctly that in turn leads to less contagion, especially at the one time.

There is much disquiet in Sweden where they are pursuing an unproven herd immunity approach at a time there is no vaccine. The only reason their figures aren't higher is that 50% of people in Stockholm are ignoring the government instructions and working from home and practicing social distancing.

Germany and Korea. Germany were not even reporting the cause of deaths as Covid related.

South Korea employed an extreme testing regime from the start, they monitored people coming in and out of the country with temperature guns. They employed smart technology to monitor those isolated. At the end they had tested over half a million people.

As of a few days ago South Korea are now discovering people who are positive AGAIN after previously been told they were negative. This is very worrying for the whole world.

Would you have a link for the South Korean reinfections?

Spencer Brown

niallo27 wrote: »

Well I was following the restrictions, it's been a longer for most people. Dont presume we were all disregarding the rules if you were doing it yourself.

This, drives me insane, this is my 6th week working from home and i've been doing 90% of the measures currently in place for all of those weeks.... because you know it seemed like the right thing to do.

KrustyUCC

KiKi III wrote: »

There were light restrictions four weeks ago, but people were still seeing their families, going to the beach/ park etc, a lot more people were still going to work.

The lockdown as we now know it has only been in place for 2.5 weeks.

Not everybody was seeing families, going to beaches etc

Outside of work people were asked to limit social interactions

You're discounting 16 days for people not seeing friends, family, grandparents, partners etc

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

Well I was following the restrictions, it's been a longer for most people. Dont presume we were all disregarding the rules if you were doing it yourself.

I was in self-isolation before the lockdown having returned from abroad.

niallo27

STB. wrote: »

They are not testing. They already have a 8% death rate of those they did test. Over 600 dead and 900 critical.

It does matter about positive tests. The testing regime is carried out in conjunction with isolation and contact tracing, and social distancing measures. Done correctly that in turn leads to less contagion, especially at the one time.

There is much disquiet in Sweden where they are pursuing an unproven herd immunity approach at a time there is no vaccine. The only reason their figures aren't higher is that 50% of people in Stockholm are ignoring the government instructions and working from home and practicing social distancing.

Germany and Korea. Germany were not even reporting the cause of deaths as Covid related.

South Korea employed an extreme testing regime from the start, they monitored people coming in and out of the country with temperature guns. They employed smart technology to monitor those isolated. At the end they had tested over half a million people.

As of a few days ago South Korea are now discovering people who are positive AGAIN after previously been told they were negative. This is very worrying for the whole world.

Hang on so you are saying that proper social distancing and working from home has had this massive affect in sweden, isnt this a crucial bit of information.

Jenbach110

ixoy wrote: »

I'm fairly sure they meant on a per capita basis though - that's certainly how I took it and that's one of the more important metrics. Assess what percentage of your population is most vulnerable (higher in Italy in the over-65s for example by about 70%) and your ability to cope with it (hospital beds + ICU) and start from there.

They may have meant per capita but they suggested my calculations were incorrect.

So would you agree it would be difficult for Ireland to turn into Italy as regards the effects of Covid because of the numbers of vunerable citizens?

Spencer Brown

KiKi III wrote: »

I was in self-isolation before the lockdown having returned from abroad.

Abroad where?

KiKi III

Spencer Brown wrote: »

Abroad where?

Timbuktu. What difference does it make?

niallo27

KiKi III wrote: »

I was in self-isolation before the lockdown having returned from abroad.

You weren't skiing in Italy by any chance.

Spencer Brown

KiKi III wrote: »

Timbuktu. What difference does it make?

The plot thickens.

growleaves

Huge swathes of retail were closed down by March 20th. I was making mental notes of the holdouts. Almost everything closed by March 23rd.

KiKi III

niallo27 wrote: »

You weren't skiing in Italy by any chance.

I can barely stay upright jogging, never mind on a set of skis. I’ve no interest in Italian football either, if that’s your next question.

I got home the day they asked anyone who had been abroad at all to restrict their movements for 14 days.

Jenbach110

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That is incorrect.

How?

STB.

niallo27 wrote: »

Can you tell me why it's so low because I genuinely don't know, it makes no sense why nobody is recovering.

Our first positive was the 29th February. The vast majority are in March and April.

It is unknown how long "recovered" patients will remain infectious. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days. There are now 91 cases of the virus coming back in South Korea to those that previously had it.

alwald

niallo27 wrote: »

You talk a good game in fairness but could you actually back some of it up please.

That particular poster was adamant that there was no social distancing for the Spanish flu. Well here is one article out of many proving the complete opposite.
Quite frankly there is a lot of material on internet from reputable sources.

ixoy

niallo27 wrote: »

Can you tell me why it's so low because I genuinely don't know, it makes no sense why nobody is recovering.

They're not testing people to confirm they've recovered so they're not officially being marked as recovered (even if they have been). That's because of the backlog of tests so the priority is to to test those who may yet have it but are undiagnosed.

ShineOn7

STB. wrote: »

As of a few days ago South Korea are now discovering people who are positive AGAIN after previously been told they were negative. This is very worrying for the whole world.

Did it say if these people felt unwell again or if they were asymptomatic second time around?

STB.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Would you have a link for the South Korean reinfections?

It's all over the news. The WHO are gone in.

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Did it say if these people felt unwell again or if they were asymptomatic second time around?

It said they are positive again. There is much discussion about whether its reactivation or reinfection. Neither are good news.

Nermal

STB. wrote: »

There is much disquiet in Sweden where they are pursuing an unproven herd immunity approach

Herd immunity is unproven? What is proven is the failure of suppression. Crucifying one’s economy to delay - not prevent - the death of a tiny fraction of your population.

STB. wrote: »

As of a few days ago South Korea are now discovering people who are positive AGAIN after previously been told they were negative. This is very worrying for the whole world.

It’s only worrying if you don’t know that the false negative rate for the test is up to 30%. This is the same test you plan to suppress the virus with? Laughable. We need to change course now.

Edit: just seen that earlier on you were quoting 8% fatality rates. Another one for the ignore list.

thebaz

Have found the Indo coverage a little sensationalist overall, but at least someone is now questioning what has happened, and how we are in effect now in a police state.
Maybe (and probably) the state were right, but we wont know for sure until end of month, if we over-reacted, but I believe it is important to question it, especially when so many of our freedoms have been taken away :-

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/we-have-sleepwalked-into-a-police-state-its-vital-we-have-right-to-question-states-actions-39122948.html

Jenbach110

thebaz wrote: »

Have found the Indo coverage a little sensationalist overall, but at least someone is now questioning what has happened, and how we are in effect now in a police state.
Maybe (and probably) the state were right, but we wont know for sure until end of month, if we over-reacted, but I believe it is important to question it, especially when so many of our freedoms have been taken away :-

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/we-have-sleepwalked-into-a-police-state-its-vital-we-have-right-to-question-states-actions-39122948.html

Investigative journalsim is non existant throughout the coverage of this. Its a police state for health benefits but its still a police state

Captain_Crash

STB. wrote: »

You are all good again ? Good god. Its unknown how you are afterwards. You certainly are not immune.

The 14 days is so you wont overwhelm the testing system. There are cases of incubation periods of 28 days.

Regardless, you are missing the point, the idea of the testing regime is to identify those infected and isolate them and contact trace anyone they have been in touch with to further stop the spread. If you don't do that in good time your public health system could fail and because of the 20% that will not get mild symptoms, a large percentage will require ICU. Our ICU beds capacity is 50 per million so we have a low threshold.

The question wasn’t about incubation period tho, if you’ve tested positive the incubation period has already passed.

So the guidelines say isolate for 14 days after you've tested positive? correct? so to me it seems clear your deemed to be likely “cured” for want of a better word after this timeframe has passed, as that’s the time frame recommended by both the HSE and WHO.

So on that basis would it not be fair to say that most positive tests from two weeks ago are now better? And if not, then why is there only a 14 day isolation period?

(And when I say better I mean from a purely medical standpoint, I had swine flu so know all too well the several weeks your body takes to recover after a nasty virus like this has left your system)

STB.

Nermal wrote: »

Herd immunity is unproven? What is proven is the failure of suppression. Crucifying one’s economy to delay - not prevent - the death of a tiny fraction of your population.

Yes. Herd Immunity is unproven. What do you not understand about that ?

You certainly don't try and achieve it (you'd have to infect 80% for herd immunity which would kill thousands and overwhelm your public health system) without a known vaccine in place.

"Tiny fraction of your population". I see you are quite removed from life.

Public Health comes first. Thankfully its not in your hands, or we'd be staring down the barrel the UK currently are.

Nermal wrote: »

It’s only worrying if you don’t know that the false negative rate for the test is up to 30%. This is the same test you plan to suppress the virus with? Laughable. We need to change course now.

If you were concerned about false negatives, you'd be more worried about our numbers.

Laughable. Your head in the sand responses behaving as if nothing is going on around you and your selfish wide zoom people will die let them attitude would be laughable if it wasn't so serious that there are people like you out there that think like that.

Tenzor07

thebaz wrote: »

Have found the Indo coverage a little sensationalist overall, but at least someone is now questioning what has happened, and how we are in effect now in a police state.
Maybe (and probably) the state were right, but we wont know for sure until end of month, if we over-reacted, but I believe it is important to question it, especially when so many of our freedoms have been taken away :-
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/we-have-sleepwalked-into-a-police-state-its-vital-we-have-right-to-question-states-actions-39122948.html

Jenbach110 wrote: »

Investigative journalsim is non existant throughout the coverage of this. Its a police state for health benefits but its still a police state

If anyone thinks we're in a "Police state" then they should move to Australia, the Police seem more like Gestapo: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/14/totally-disrespectful-police-interrupt-funeral-while-enforcing-social-distancing-rules-over-easter-weekend

STB.

Captain_Crash wrote: »

The question wasn’t about incubation period tho, if you’ve tested positive the incubation period has already passed.

So the guidelines say isolate for 14 days after you've tested positive? correct? so to me it seems clear your deemed to be likely “cured” for want of a better word after this timeframe has passed, as that’s the time frame recommended by both the HSE and WHO.

So on that basis would it not be fair to say that most positive tests from two weeks ago are now better? And if not, then why is there only a 14 day isolation period?

(And when I say better I mean from a purely medical standpoint, I had swine flu so know all too well the several weeks your body takes to recover after a nasty virus like this has left your system)

No. I've already responded to this a few posts before yours. You are not "cured". Viral shedding can go on for up to 37 days.


"Cured" "Recovered" are misnomers. The true measure is when you get your infection rates down considerably.

thebaz

STB. wrote: »

Yes. Herd Immunity is unproven. What do you not understand about that ?

You certainly don't try and achieve it (you'd have to infect 80% for herd immunity which would kill thousands and overwhelm your public health system) without a known vaccine in place.

Not advocating herd immunity, but the idea is you use it as the vaccine, and the precentage is 60%

growleaves

Have found the Indo coverage a little sensationalist overall, but at least someone is now questioning what has happened, and how we are in effect now in a police state.

Yes and the Irish Times had articles of late about civil liberties and the attempt to suspend the Dáil. Leo V. responded by saying that Ireland 'is not a police state'.

In ancient Rome at one point there used to be temporary (popular) dictatorships that lasted I think it was a year at a time (trying to piece this from memory), typically run by two leaders and then power handed back to the Senate afterwards.

Modern people don't think of a dictatorship working that way but with "rolling lockdowns" we might have something like this as our new model of government - with governance being subordinated to 'expert advice' for intense, short periods of time.

Ce he sin

Nermal wrote: »

Herd immunity is unproven? What is proven is the failure of suppression. Crucifying one’s economy to delay - not prevent - the death of a tiny fraction of your population...

Every few pages on this thread you're back banging on again with your "just leave them die" argument.

I'm guessing you're of an age where you can look upon the death of a "tiny fraction of your population" with equanimity as you're unlikely to be amongst them. My parents are in their eighties. Should I tell them they should just offer themselves up to the greater good?
Any action taken to prevent anybody's imminent death is only going to delay their death, even if they are new born. On that basis hospitals might as well shut up shop.

tdf7187

Everyones suddenly an expert on immunology like everyone was all of a sudden an expert on economics in 2010.

Ye are hilarious lads, sadly its mainly unintentional.