Relaxation of restrictions

tdf7187

thebaz wrote: »

Have found the Indo coverage a little sensationalist overall, but at least someone is now questioning what has happened, and how we are in effect now in a police state.
Maybe (and probably) the state were right, but we wont know for sure until end of month, if we over-reacted, but I believe it is important to question it, especially when so many of our freedoms have been taken away :-

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/we-have-sleepwalked-into-a-police-state-its-vital-we-have-right-to-question-states-actions-39122948.html

Fair play to her and the Sindo.

STB.

tdf7187 wrote: »

Everyones suddenly an expert on immunology like everyone was all of a sudden an expert on economics in 2010.

Ye are hilarious lads, sadly its mainly unintentional.

What are you bringing to the party tdf ?

KiKi III

thebaz wrote: »

Not advocating herd immunity, but the idea is you use it as the vaccine, and the precentage is 60%

So, rough calculations:

60% of the population is 3 million

3% death rate = 88,000

Even if you could reduce this dramatically through cocooning, you’d still be looking at thousands of deaths and an overwhelmed health system.

Doesn’t sound ideal.

alwald

thebaz wrote: »

Not advocating herd immunity, but the idea is you use it as the vaccine, and the precentage is 60%

Do you take random words and figures and put them in a meaningful sentence or do you intend to back it all up with trusted scientific research?

Blueshoe

I think I might be immune to the virus. The past week or 10 days i have forgotten my gloves and hand sanitizer numerous times when out and about shopping etc.
I also smoke so my hands are on the cigarette and into the mouth.

Yet I have not contracted the virus. Or maybe I am lucky.

Also I want my monthly premium back from the Vhi. The private hospital system is closed now yet they still charge for it. Scum

tdf7187

STB. wrote: »

What are you bringing to the party tdf ?

Scepticism and commonsense. Sorry if that doesnt fit the agenda.

road_high

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Not everybody was seeing families, going to beaches etc

Outside of work people were asked to limit social interactions

You're discounting 16 days for people not seeing friends, family, grandparents, partners etc

It’s going on a solid month plus now. I had clients cancelling meetings first week of March. It’s all been down hill since then. For some to say the restrictions are only going on 2.5 weeks is disingenuous really.

thebaz

alwald wrote: »

Do you take random words and figures and put them in a meaningful sentence or do you intend to back it all up with trusted scientific research?

Not sure what you talking about - as I said I was not advocating herd immunity - but the percentage for it to work is 60% -

and the basic idea of herd immunity is to build up immunity, wher no vaccine exits -

Jenbach110

tdf7187 wrote: »

Scepticism and commonsense. Sorry if that doesnt fit the agenda.

Get out of here with that common sense stuff

thebaz

KiKi III wrote: »

So, rough calculations:

60% of the population is 3 million

3% death rate = 88,000

Even if you could reduce this dramatically through cocooning, you’d still be looking at thousands of deaths and an overwhelmed health system.

Doesn’t sound ideal.

as I said , repeatedly, not advocating it , just expalaining it , or trying to , obviously not very well - good night.

KiKi III

thebaz wrote: »

as I said , repeatedly, not advocating it , just expalaining it , or trying to , obviously not very well - good night.

I know you weren’t- just trying to extrapolate what 60% “herd immunity” would mean.

STB.

thebaz wrote: »

Not advocating herd immunity, but the idea is you use it as the vaccine, and the precentage is 60%

I know what the idea is. Herd Immunity is not a vaccine. This is an actual pandemic.


Dr William Hanage, Professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

tdf7187 wrote: »

Scepticism and commonsense. Sorry if that doesnt fit the agenda.

Lets hear it so. Don't leave us hanging. This is important that you provide us with your wisdom rather than snappy one liners.

Rainmann

Spencer Brown wrote: »

And we'd murder for a bit of sun. In all seriousness why are you comparing Ireland to a developing country?

Funnily enough, I have experienced the healthcare system in both Ireland and Brazil and the Brazillian system was far superior in my experience and it was free/ fully public. Maybe it comes down to the cost of the treatment in Brazil making it more viable, but I never had to wait/ queue for over 30-minutes in Brazil and they were always able to do whatever tests there and then. In Ireland, the GP's just guesstimate what you have as they can't do any tests, or they will refer you to a specialist with a 2-year waiting list - And then A&E you might be waiting 20+hours before you see a doctor. I know this is different as its a pandemic and all hands are on deck and Ireland is a better-resourced country per capita but the day to day healthcare on offer in Ireland, in general, is pretty terrible.

tdf7187

KiKi III wrote: »

So, rough calculations:

60% of the population is 3 million

3% death rate = 88,000

Even if you could reduce this dramatically through cocooning, you’d still be looking at thousands of deaths and an overwhelmed health system.

Doesn’t sound ideal.

Death rate is 0.5%.
Far more will die from suicide if lockdown is extended excessively.

As for cocooning, my 78 yr old mum is breaching the guidelines. And fair play to her.

Irish nurses and doctors are very, very well paid by international standards, as are our (provably corrupt) cops.

These are the facts.

alwald

thebaz wrote: »

Not sure what you talking about - as I said I was not advocating herd immunity - but the percentage for it to work is 60% -

and the basic idea of herd immunity is to build up immunity, wher no vaccine exits -

Let's break it up then to simplify:
1 - What's your source of 60%?
2 - How are you sure it will work for C-19?
3 - what's your source that a human body builds immunity against C-19?

tdf7187

Rainmann wrote: »

Funnily enough, I have experienced the healthcare system in both Ireland and Brazil and the Brazillian system was far superior in my experience and it was free/ fully public. Maybe it comes down to the cost of the treatment in Brazil making it more viable, but I never had to wait/ queue for over 30-minutes in Brazil and they were always able to do whatever tests there and then. In Ireland, the GP's just guesstimate what you have as they can't do any tests, or they will refer you to a specialist with a 2-year waiting list - And then A&E you might be waiting 20+hours before you see a doctor. I know this is different as its a pandemic and all hands are on deck and Ireland is a better-resourced country per capita but the day to day healthcare on offer in Ireland, in general, is pretty terrible.

Havent experienced Brazilian system but not surprised to hear this.

Irelands health system consistently delivers below average outcomes at a high cost, due to bureacracy, incompetence and vested interests.

alwald

tdf7187 wrote: »

Death rate is 0.5%.
Far more will die from suicide if lockdown is extended excessively.

As for cocooning, my 78 yr old mum is breaching the guidelines. And fair play to her.

Irish nurses and doctors are very, very well paid by international standards, as are our (provably corrupt) cops.

These are the facts.

Here is a correction to your facts, the death rate stands at 21% and not your 0.5%.

STB.

growleaves wrote: »

Yes and the Irish Times had articles of late about civil liberties and the attempt to suspend the Dáil. Leo V. responded by saying that Ireland 'is not a police state'.

In ancient Rome at one point there used to be temporary (popular) dictatorships that lasted I think it was a year at a time (trying to piece this from memory), typically run by two leaders and then power handed back to the Senate afterwards.

Modern people don't think of a dictatorship working that way but with "rolling lockdowns" we might have something like this as our new model of government - with governance being subordinated to 'expert advice' for intense, short periods of time.

Yeah well your civil rights play second fiddle to public health however inconvenient.


Police state, FFS. The very fact that they had to bring in these laws is because there are gobshítes who are too stupid or too selfish to follow the plan. The plan being not to spread the virus and overwhelm out limited health system to a stage where loads die, unnecessarily.


You can talk all you want about your civil rights when we get this under control. The sooner we do that, the sooner people get back to work.

Loafing Oaf

tdf7187 wrote: »

Death rate is 0.5%.
Far more will die from suicide if lockdown is extended excessively.


These are the facts.

Do you understand the distinction between a 'fact' and a 'prediction'?

Downlinz

tdf7187 wrote: »

Death rate is 0.5%.
Far more will die from suicide if lockdown is extended excessively.

As for cocooning, my 78 yr old mum is breaching the guidelines. And fair play to her.

Irish nurses and doctors are very, very well paid by international standards, as are our (provably corrupt) cops.

These are the facts.

0.5% is only the death rate if you forget 1.3m of the current 1.9m cases are still considered active and there will be further deaths from those.

In closed cases the death rate is 21%. The true figure is something in between and varies heavily on demographics.

lalababa

As far as I can make out, and there's plenty of guesswork coz there is not much coming out is this : there are a huge number of people infected...could be any number, we stand at 10,000 positive tests.
There are at least 40 clusters in old folks homes. Sat 33 died. The median age was 83. Now the median number of a set of numbers is the middle one. But the median age is the highest age - the lowest, divided by 2 and added to the lowest. Which would indicate nearly all of the 33 were over 80. Which would indicate that there are a few/many nursing homes where it is making rack. But this isn't being reported. Why..f**k knows.

thebaz

alwald wrote: »

Let's break it up then to simplify:
1 - What's your source of 60%?
2 - How are you sure it will work for C-19?
3 - what's your source that a human body builds immunity against C-19?

Cause thats what i've read from various experts , no I dont know if it will work for Covid , was just trying to explain the idea - I have no idea if it will work for sure, even the experts dont either, will probably take 3 months or so , assuming sweden continues on its path -
but the % they talk about is 60 %. - Thats all -
No, I.m not expert and as Ive said 4 times I do not advocate it or reccomend it - that all

Hyzepher

The fact of the matter is that if everyone actually followed the guidelines as they were set forward then this thing would be over sooner and those crying about surpression of civil liberties could shut up. But no, there are countless people around who don't seem to care if they get it or not - most likely asymptomatic and passing it on - who are prolonging these restriction longer for all of us.

It's those who are crying about the restrictions and don't obey them are actually prolonging the very thing they want to end.

STB.

tdf7187 wrote: »

Death rate is 0.5%.
Far more will die from suicide if lockdown is extended excessively.

As for cocooning, my 78 yr old mum is breaching the guidelines. And fair play to her.

Irish nurses and doctors are very, very well paid by international standards, as are our (provably corrupt) cops.

These are the facts.

Is that what I waited for ? Good God. You probably haven't worked a day in your life.

Stheno

lalababa wrote: »

As far as I can make out, and there's plenty of guesswork coz there is not much coming out is this : there are a huge number of people infected...could be any number, we stand at 10,000 positive tests.
There are at least 40 clusters in old folks homes. Sat 33 died. The median age was 83. Now the median number of a set of numbers is the middle one. But the median age is the highest age - the lowest, divided by 2 and added to the lowest. Which would indicate nearly all of the 33 were over 80. Which would indicate that there are a few/many nursing homes where it is making rack. But this isn't being reported. Why..f**k knows.

Your explanation of median is wrong in the latter half of your waffle

Median is the middle in a range of numbers

tdf7187

alwald wrote: »

Here is a correction to your facts, the death rate stands at 21% and not your 0.5%.

Good point, the sky is always falling in. Yes, you are right, its worse than the plague and the black death, happy now?

Night night, dont let the bed bugs bite.

alwald

thebaz wrote: »

Cause thats what i've read from various experts , no I dont know if it will work for Covid , was just trying to explain the idea - I have no idea if it will work for sure, even the experts dont either, will probably take 3 months or so , assuming sweden continues on its path -
but the % they talk about is 60 %. - Thats all -
No, I.m not expert and as Ive said 4 times I do not advocate it or reccomend it - that all

So let me explain, the "rough" estimate for herd immunity to work is that at least 60% of the population must catch C-19 which is akin to a genocide/massacre due to the number of deaths worldwide.

alwald

tdf7187 wrote: »

Good point, the sky is always falling in. Yes, you are right, its worse than the plague and the black death, happy now?

Night night, dont let the bed bugs bite.

You are exiting as quickly as you entered with a failed attempt. Good night and hopefully you will have a better day tomorrow with your "facts" .

normanoffside

alwald wrote: »

Here is a correction to your facts, the death rate stands at 21% and not your 0.5%.

Death rate is 0.37% going by extensive studies in Germany and Iceland (and even in those studies there is bias towards a tendency to test the sick).

I’m not even sure where you got 21% from. In our case the infection/death rate is 4% and that is going off a system where only vulnerable and health workers are being tested.
If we had the capacity to test all people with mild symptoms our death rate would be much lower and that’s before you even factor in the 50+% of asymptomatic carriers.

tdf7187

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Do you understand the distinction between a 'fact' and a 'prediction'?

Ok. I'm making a prediction.