Relaxation of restrictions

normanoffside

Posted on another thread but of some interest here I assume:


Here’s another interesting one in the State by State breakdown of American statistics.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/tracking-coronavirus-u-s-data/

If you go the stats on US military (listed as it’s own State) it has 15 deaths from over 4500 cases, a death rate of 0.33%

Not sure if the military get tested more than other sections of society, I would assume so?

ILoveYourVibes

normanoffside wrote: »

Posted on another thread but of some interest here I assume:


Here’s another interesting one in the State by State breakdown of American statistics.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/tracking-coronavirus-u-s-data/

If you go the stats on US military (listed as it’s own State) it has 15 deaths from over 4500 cases, a death rate of 0.33%

Not sure if the military get tested more than other sections of society, I would assume so?

I would assume they are fit healthy young and exercise etc.

alwald

normanoffside wrote: »

Posted on another thread but of some interest here I assume:


Here’s another interesting one in the State by State breakdown of American statistics.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/tracking-coronavirus-u-s-data/

If you go the stats on US military (listed as it’s own State) it has 15 deaths from over 4500 cases, a death rate of 0.33%

Not sure if the military get tested more than other sections of society, I would assume so?

Why should we take a figure from the US military, with a total of 4500 cases, and expect those figures to be the same across the world instead of looking at worldwide figures?

This is a serious question as this virus for some people is a question of life/death.

niallo27

Cupatae wrote: »

how did you get from 70k the original post, to 13 million? Some math gymnastics there.

Ok sorry let's say 60% of the UK's population get it, about 40 million, 21% death rate would mean over 8 million dead.

ILoveYourVibes

My main frustration is that the country seems to think lockdown is enough. Lockdown is not enough.

We can't relax restrictions unless we learn this.

China only opened up 28 days after their last case tested negative.

Lockdown alone isnt going to get us down to one case.

normanoffside

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I would assume they are fit healthy young and exercise etc.

When you go into the ‘source’ of the stats you find that military personnel themselves have 2 deaths in over 2500 cases, that’s less than 0.1% mortality.
Most of the deaths are civilian, dependant and contractors (I assume a lot more of these are older/retired?)

https://twitter.com/taracopp/status/1249708053802496005?s=21

Cupatae

niallo27 wrote: »

Ok sorry let's say 60% of the UK's population get it, about 40 million, 21% death rate would mean over 8 million dead.

1) I didnt come up with the 21%

2) i think you need to go back and read Alwald post about said 21% cause i dont think you understand it. its 21% of what we know has happened. Not what will.

3) that wasnt what the 70k was about either so go back and read that too

Good Lad.

alwald

niallo27 wrote: »

Ok sorry let's say 60% of the UK's population get it, about 40 million, 21% death rate would mean over 8 million dead.

It is important to note that the 21% rate excludes:
- Almost 1.5M patients that still have the virus
- Cases not detected
- Death caused by C-19 without any sort of test

and I am probably missing few as it is late so it's not a certain or final percentage by any means.

ILoveYourVibes

normanoffside wrote: »

Most of the deaths are civilian, dependant and contractors (I assume a lot more of these are older/retired?)

Why are these in military stats?

ShineOn7

What an omnishambles this thread has turned into

Time to unfollow for at least tonight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1rRszEYKdM

normanoffside

alwald wrote: »

Why should we take a figure from the US military, with a total of 4500 cases, and expect those figures to be the same across the world instead of looking at worldwide figures?

This is a serious question as this virus for some people is a question of life/death.

Because Perhaps not everyone (or even close to it) in the world is getting tested in order to get accurate figures.

Whereas maybe in the military a lot more at getting tested.
That’s why studies were large portions of a small population being tested for scientific purposes are important.

Would you concede that in countries where tests are only carried out on patients who present to hospital in a very unwell condition, then by definition their death rates are not representative of true mortality rates?

Cupatae

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What an omnishambles this thread has turned into

Time to unfollow for at least tonight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1rRszEYKdM

Better luck next time pal!

Charles Babbage

normanoffside wrote: »

Death rate is 0.37% going by extensive studies in Germany and Iceland (and even in those studies there is bias towards a tendency to test the sick).

I’m not even sure where you got 21% from. In our case the infection/death rate is 4% and that is going off a system where only vulnerable and health workers are being tested.
If we had the capacity to test all people with mild symptoms our death rate would be much lower and that’s before you even factor in the 50+% of asymptomatic carriers.

Only 0.37% only means 10.0000+ dead in the ROI. By way of comparison that's about the number to die in road accidents over the next 59 years. And of course if these deaths do not space themselves nicely the health service gets overrun and 5 times as many die.

alwald

normanoffside wrote: »

Because Perhaps not everyone (or even close to it) in the world is getting tested in order to get accurate figures.

Whereas maybe in the military a lot more at getting tested.
That’s why studies were large portions of a small population being tested for scientific purposes are important.

Would you concede that in countries where tests are only carried out on patients who present to hospital in a very unwell condition, then by definition their death rates are not representative of true mortality rates?

A lot of perhaps and maybes for my liking.

Cupatae

normanoffside wrote: »

Because Perhaps not everyone (or even close to it) in the world is getting tested in order to get accurate figures.

Whereas maybe in the military a lot more at getting tested.
That’s why studies were large portions of a small population being tested for scientific purposes are important.

Would you concede that in countries where tests are only carried out on patients who present to hospital in a very unwell condition, then by definition their death rates are not representative of true mortality rates?

Where do you draw the line then? people are asking for statistics and figures but keep moving the goal posts when they get em? you can only go by whats broadly known.

normanoffside

alwald wrote: »

A lot of perhaps and maybes for my liking.

So you think everyone is getting tested and every case is being reported then?

dundalkfc10

Cupatae wrote: »

Where do you draw the line then? people are asking for statistics and figures but keep moving the goal posts when they get em? you can only go by whats broadly known.

The fact is we are not been told correct figures by the Govt.

This has been proven

Cupatae

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

The fact is we are not been told correct figures by the Govt.

This has been proven

Its an ever evolving figure its never gonna be accurate. And if thats known why are people banging on about statistics and figures ? "CAN YOU PROVIDE STATISTICS WITH THAT ?! LAD" as soon as they get proven wrong.

ILoveYourVibes

Lockdown without any plan to defeat and stop the virus permanently and get down to zero cases is simply a slow version of herd immunity. That is sad. We don't have to surrender people to this.

We can and should try to defeat it and save lives.

dundalkfc10

Cupatae wrote: »

Its an ever evolving figure its never gonna be accurate. And if thats known why are people banging on about statistics and figures ? "CAN YOU PROVIDE STATISTICS WITH THAT ?! LAD" as soon as they get proven wrong.

They kept the results of tests in Germany until they were called on it

ILoveYourVibes

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

They kept the results of tests in Germany until they were called on it

They are still not adding them to the daily total 23 hrs ago the daily total for the previous 24 hrs was 992

Today its reported as 500 and something. So they are hoping most people will only see that figure and not have heard of the Germany figures nor that a German lab is doing testing for us.

MaureensFry

normanoffside wrote: »

So you think everyone is getting tested and every case is being reported then?

I would say half the people are not reporting it. If you have minor symptons people are not going to bother report it and just take the risk of ringing an ambulance if needs be

Captain_Crash

STB. wrote: »

No. I've already responded to this a few posts before yours. You are not "cured". Viral shedding can go on for up to 37 days.


"Cured" "Recovered" are misnomers. The true measure is when you get your infection rates down considerably.

The point still stands tho, most people who tested positive 14 days ago will have stopped shedding by now and are no longer a risk. You've quoted the WHO on a number of occasions so I'm presuming your position is what they say is correct, and they say 14 days isolation is required. Meaning in their eyes your likely no risk after this time.



The very article you quote says the median for shedding is 20 days, so if you account for the time taken between contracting the virus and getting tested and 14 days passing after your positive test, you've already passed or are close the 20 day mark anyway (Irelands cases got so backlogged that theirs a high chance some people had stopped shedding before they even got the results back).


The below has a slightly different opinion and that shedding occurs between 12 and 20 days.



https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html



So I'm of the opinion as are many others that the vast majority of positive tests from two weeks ago are now no longer shedding. If you think different you better call the HSE and give them your internet articles to prove it. Call RTE while your at it too, wasn't Tubs back on the Late Late on Friday having tested positive at the end of march, surely he still has it on your logic.

Glenbhoy

alwald wrote: »

To calculate the global percentage of deaths we need the total number of cases with an outcome and the total number of deaths.
Total number of cases with an outcome is 560216 which is 100% in our maths and the total number of deaths is 118984 which is X%. So (118984*100)/560216=21%.

The total number of active cases is out of the equation as their outcome is still unknown so 21% is the current death rate but is subject to change.

We won't know mortality rates until long after this wave is over.
Infection rates are massively underestimated because of the high level of asymptomatic and mild cases. Italian officials estimate, infections there are 10 times 'confirmed' cases, almost definitely the same in the UK, where its difficult to get tested at all.
On the deaths side, most countries have underestimated numbers and large countries, for logistical reasons, are generally only counting hospital deaths, at some point down the road they will count non-hospital, but this wave will have passed by then. Some countries count anyone dying who tested positive, some count probable positives, some ignore corona presence depending on severity of other underlying conditions.

Heres Johnny

I think some mods and even the owners of boards.ie should consider temporarily locking some Covid19 threads late at night. There seems to be a lot of rambling and drunken posting going on late at night reporting some pretty dubious and possibly inaccurate facts and figures.

Just something to consider lads, although it could be just an Easter weekend thing it seemed to get worse this weekend. A few times now it's 2 posters just forward and back at each other

After hours this is not

Hoboo

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

The fact is we are not been told correct figures by the Govt.

This has been proven

Because they don't have them. This has also been proven.

It's impossible to have correct figures when tests are behind by weeks in test terms, and daily death figures are any recorded deaths from the last month that have been received that day.

Hoboo

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They are still not adding them to the daily total 23 hrs ago the daily total for the previous 24 hrs was 992

Today its reported as 500 and something. So they are hoping most people will only see that figure and not have heard of the Germany figures nor that a German lab is doing testing for us.

The German figures have been reported daily since they began receiving them. They have given the combined and German total seperately. The use of the German lab is well reported in every paper and news site.

I've been following them every day.

MaureensFry

Heres Johnny wrote: »

I think some mods and even the owners of boards.ie should consider temporarily locking some Covid19 threads late at night. There seems to be a lot of rambling and drunken posting going on late at night reporting some pretty dubious and possibly inaccurate facts and figures.

Just something to consider lads, although it could be just an Easter weekend thing it seemed to get worse this weekend. A few times now it's 2 posters just forward and back at each other

After hours this is not

This goes on during the day too, 100 times worse than at night when there is more users.

1 minute work on a thread can clean it up

paw patrol

MaureensFry wrote: »

This goes on during the day too, 100 times worse than at night when there is more users.

1 minute work on a thread can clean it up

I don't like other peoples comments :pac:

Nermal

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Only 0.37% only means 10.0000+ dead in the ROI. By way of comparison that's about the number to die in road accidents over the next 59 years. And of course if these deaths do not space themselves nicely the health service gets overrun and 5 times as many die.

10,000 is probably roughly accurate. 0.37% is assuming infections evenly distributed over the population - cocooning would reduce that. Five times as many people dying when 'the health service gets overrun' is just not accurate.

Road deaths are a good comparator. If someone suggested spending 30% of GDP this year to end road deaths for the next 60 years, you'd ask them had they forgotten their meds. But that's what we're doing.

alwald wrote: »

Here is a correction to your facts, the death rate stands at 21% and not your 0.5%.

Blocked.

KiKi III wrote: »

3% death rate = 88,000

Blocked.