Relaxation of restrictions

Spencer Brown

KiKi III wrote: »

Looks right to me but I’ll admit it’s not my strongpoint - what’s wrong as you see it?

3,000,000 x 0.005 = 15,000

CtevenSrowder

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

As many people have pointed out, this would be extremely difficult to implement in practice. Huge numbers of elderly and other vulnerable living with low-vulnerability family members. Do you think it's possible for these people to 'self-isolate' within the family home for a prolonged period?

It's hard, but it's better than what we are doing now, provided we've to do what we are doing now long term.

KiKi III

Spencer Brown wrote: »

3,000,000 x 0.005 = 15,000

Thanks. Shouldn’t do mental maths, I’m notoriously bad at it.

paw patrol

khalessi wrote: »

I would not be surprised if lockdown was extended to encompass the June bank holiday weekend

what do you mean by "lockdown"?
The current measures are unworkable for that long. The 2km nonsense will need to go or people will eventually ignore it.

Restrictions and guidelines are useless unless people abide by them.

I've no problem with some restrictions but the current ones are too draconian and I've a life to live as I assume others do.

I won't be obeying the restrictions after 5th may - if they remain as is.

El_Duderino 09

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

As many people have pointed out, this would be extremely difficult to implement in practice. Huge numbers of elderly and other vulnerable living with low-vulnerability family members. Do you think it's possible for these people to 'self-isolate' within the family home for a prolonged period?

No I don't. Vulnerable people who can't cocoon would be more likely to get it and more likely to experience acute symptoms and more likely to die - similar to how they are right now if they're living with family or can't cocoon for whatever reason.

KiKi III

Per your corrections, 15,000 deaths and 1,500 of them in young people over the next two years.

Not as dramatic as my original miscalculation but still certainly not acceptable in a country the size of ours.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

KiKi III wrote: »

Honestly, I don't know. As I said a few pages ago, I don't find it helpful to ruminate on "What if this happens on May 5?" or "What if that happens?"

I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. I'm cautiously optimistic we'll see some restrictions lifted, though I don't know which ones, so I'm going to continue adopting a wait-and-see approach.

I know people are craving certainty at the moment but it's impossible to provide that right now so I think the attitude I'm adopting is the most sensible one.

The attitude is somewhat submissive and a little niave. Also, you don't appear to be as well informed as you think you are if you just want to blindly follow the opinions of someone else.

skallywag wrote: »

The daily death rate needs to either plateau or better significantly drop for starters. I can only assume that you are aware that it is currently actually heading North?

It's the number af active cases that is important not the death rate. The death rate might be declining while the virus spreads and accelerates, but it'll be two weeks before we notice.

But again: question to both of you: How long is too long? Are you willing to accept indefinitel lockdown for six-nine months to one year if it came to that? Do you think it woudl save lives or put move lives in danger?

khalessi

paw patrol wrote: »

what do you mean by "lockdown"?
The current measures are unworkable for that long. The 2km nonsense will need to go or people will eventually ignore it.

Restrictions and guidelines are useless unless people abide by them.

I've no problem with some restrictions but the current ones are too draconian and I've a life to live as I assume others do.

I won't be obeying the restrictions after 5th may - if they remain as is.

We all have lives to live and would like to be doing so by at Christmas and the likes of your last statement is the issue. Dont obey but remember the numbers you could infect as you live your life

CtevenSrowder

KiKi III wrote: »

Per your corrections, 15,000 deaths and 1,500 of them in young people over the next two years.

Not as dramatic as my original miscalculation but still certainly not acceptable in a country the size of ours.

What is your alternative?

Hooked

The way I see it... And I'm just an ordinary Joe...

This is gonna be around for a while yet. So, start a proper push on educating people that 'physical distancing', 2m lines at shops, PPE gear for shoppers and staff and the general hand-hygiene are going to be a way of life for us all.

The smaller "interactions" should be first to be relaxed. Let people live their lives. Let us move about a bit.. in our "household" groups. But - raise awareness that physical contact outside of these groups are the big issue. After all, it's all about contact tracing and the rate of infection - if and when it sparks up again.

People need to learn to prepare for everyday stuff better. Limit all your 'old' interactions. Shop ONCE, for the week. FILL the car up with fuel, once. Take a lunch to work. Only shop for hardware/clothes/etc WHEN you need to. Avail of click and collect everywhere you can. Work from home. etc...

I think we could open up everything bar the sporting events, gigs, pubs and air-travel with positive, pro-active approaches. IF people behaved appropriately. The larger group approach is going to be the tricky/complicated stuff.



I mean... if I wanted to hit a campsite this weekend - if they were open I mean, I could pay in advance/online. Stock up on goods as part of my weekly shop. I'd encounter no physical contact outside my immediate "family" group, and have as much risk of contracting the virus than if I sat at home all weekend.

But... I'd be much MUCH better off, in terms of my mental health!

And that's just 'one' such example.



There has to be a balance.

El_Duderino 09

KiKi III wrote: »

Per your corrections, 15,000 deaths and 1,500 of them in young people over the next two years.

Not as dramatic as my original miscalculation but still certainly not acceptable in a country the size of ours.

Since you raised it, what would be an acceptable number of deaths in Ireland?

BanditLuke

paw patrol wrote: »

what do you mean by "lockdown"?
The current measures are unworkable for that long. The 2km nonsense will need to go or people will eventually ignore it.

Restrictions and guidelines are useless unless people abide by them.

I've no problem with some restrictions but the current ones are too draconian and I've a life to live as I assume others do.

I won't be obeying the restrictions after 5th may - if they remain as is.

Then you will be putting peoples lives at risk. Support the HSE.

Downlinz

seamus wrote: »

This is all rhetoric in reality. Meaningless appeals to sentiment.

The fact is that there is a limit to which we can push this. A point at which people will have had enough.
And all the bland statements in the world about saving lives cannot maintain it.

There are many reasons, practical, social and financial, why this current state of lockdown cannot continue in the medium-term.

That's even if people were willing to stick with it. Are people willing to stick with it for 12 months? 6 months? 3 months?

The main reason it cannot continue is because it will not. Because people are people, fatigue will set in, and people will start agreeing, collectively but unconsciously, to let their guard down and ignore the restrictions. Bit by bit, little by little, until the Gardai are spending their days breaking up groups of people who will just congregate again five minutes after the Guards leave.

It's not a case of whether we have to relax the restrictions, but when and in what order.

I personally feel that we are pushing the limit right now. What is currently a broad state of acceptance and understanding, is starting to fray. If Leo was to turn around on 1st May and say that we needed another 3 weeks of this, anger and frustration would begin to supplant our solidarity. Compliance would start to drop. Criticism of the government response would ramp up massively - especially when other countries are lifting their restrictions.

And the last thing we want is for the lockdown to collapse chaotically. Whatever chance we had of managing fatalities long-term is lost.

So if concern for family and friends is at the forefront of your mind, then you should be looking to the government for an exit plan. For a reasonable expectation of what to expect over the next 1,3,6,12 months. Because looking for indefinite continuation of the lockdown, is looking for disaster.

The situation is a disaster, it's a pandemic. Those are the kind of feelings of worry and stress you should be feeling from the greatest challenge our species has faced since the 2nd world war.

You're blaming the lockdown for those feelings but it's really the virus as the cause. Thinking the grass is greener from a different strategy is understandable but all available medical evidence and attempts from other countries suggests otherwise.

I'm not worried about Gardai personally since they have powers of arrest to deal with those kinds of people and believe the vast majority in the community will support them in that.

KiKi III

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

The attitude is somewhat submissive and a little niave. Also, you don't appear to be as well informed as you think you are if you just want to blindly follow the opinions of someone else.
.

I’m not *blindly* following anyone. I am choosing, with my eyes wide open, to defer to experts.

When you go to the dentist, do you tell him/ her how to do their job?

I think it’s exceptionally arrogant of some on here to think they know better than people who have spent their whole lives in these fields.

skallywag

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

T
It's the number of active cases that is important not the death rate. The death rate might be declining while the virus spreads and accelerates, but it'll be two weeks before we notice.

That is incorrect.

The number of active cases can only be meaningful if you know the real number, which we do not. We have no clue currently of the real numbers, and until we can carry out random testing on the population (such as the did in Austria) then we cannot even attempt to extrapolate that.

The only real meaningful metric at the moment (along with ICU occupancy) is the trend in deaths per day, assuming that this is at least being reported and tracked correctly.

The current conditions will not be lifted until the trend turns negative.

Professor Moriarty

KiKi III wrote: »

I’m not *blindly* following anyone. I am choosing, with my eyes wide open, to defer to experts.

When you go to the dentist, do you tell him/ her how to do their job?

I think it’s exceptionally arrogant of some on here to think they know better than people who have spent their whole lives in these fields.

There were two front line doctors on Boards last night. Both praised the HSE highly. But experts eh?

CtevenSrowder

KiKi III wrote: »

I’m not *blindly* following anyone. I am choosing, with my eyes wide open, to defer to experts.

When you go to the dentist, do you tell him/ her how to do their job?

I think it’s exceptionally arrogant of some on here to think they know better than people who have spent their whole lives in these fields.

No, but if they recommend that I have all my teeth removed because I have one cavity I wouldn't just "defer" to the experts. The situation we have now isn't scientifically black and white. Experts are there to guide policy, not make it. You've also got to bear in mind that the CMO may not be thinking of the country as a whole, but more so within his area (as expected). The government has to do the former.

Cork Boy 53

Spencer Brown wrote: »

3,000,000 x 0.005 = 15,000

The HSE consultant on the AMA thread on this forum is predicting that, even with the current level of restrictions remaining in place, 10000 people will die in the next 12 months as a result of contracting the virus if an effective vaccine is not developed by then.

Nermal

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

No, but if they recommend that I have all my teeth removed because I have one cavity I wouldn't just "defer" to the experts. The situation we have now isn't scientifically black and white. Experts are there to guide policy, not make it. You've also got to bear in mind that the CMO may not be thinking of the country as a whole, but more so within his area (as expected). The government has to do the former.

I wonder what expert these guys go to in order to decide which experts to listen to?

easypazz

KiKi III wrote: »

People who have been forced out of work are on €350/week. That includes me. And I haven't heard of anyone driven to starvation on that amount yet. You're being dramatic.

People who can't afford Netflix can find a world of entertainment in YouTube absolutely free.

If you can't afford broadband to run youtube?

Or your device packs it in and you can't afford a new one?

You say "yet" but as this bites more and more people will struggle.

You say people get €350, how much does a family of 4 get?

stephenjmcd

There seems to be more of a common theme now coming from the WHO and other governments that we can't live in this paralysed state while waiting for a vaccine that may or may not come and might not even work.
The WHO themselves yesterday even said people will eventually have to live alongside the virus and take responsibility when it comes to personal hygiene.

If anyone listens to the doctor from the WHO on rte radio yesterday he even mentioned that a social life, restaurants, bars, events etc will have to resume but if you feel unwell to stay home.

For what it's worth I think we'll see a gradual lifting of restrictions from May right through until late July or August when the vast majority of places will be reopened.

skallywag

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

The HSE consultant on the AMA thread on this forum is predicting that even with the current level of restrictions remaining in place 10000 people will die as a result of the virus if an effective vaccine is not developed by then.

I think that calculation is the best we can possibly do at the moment. While I mean no disrespect whatsoever, this calculation could also be wildly inaccurate as the fact is we just have no clue of how it is going to go. You do not need to be a medical professional to say that, you just need to have a grasp of maths and statistics.

We need to just turn to Italy see how information and predictions etc. change over time, as more statistics become available. E.g. at the beginning it was thought that it was really only effecting older folk, which has now been shown to be not correct, as many healthy young people have died from this. I am sure we will see the same as time rolls on in Ireland and we gather more and more data points.

I know that people are baying at the moon looking for the quick answer, but I am afraid that there currently is not one available. Just need to hunker down and ride it out.

El_Duderino 09

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

The HSE consultant on the AMA thread on this forum is predicting that even with the current level of restrictions remaining in place 10000 people will die as a result of the virus if an effective vaccine is not developed by then.

Yeah that's very possible. It might be higher, we still don't know the mortality rate because we really only test people who almost certainly have it.

Well only know when we can start testing the population as a whole and we'll really only know when there's an antibody test to count the people who have had it and have recovered.

This is a deadly disease and we have to face up to that fact. Of there definitely was a vaccine coming but it would take a year to get to everyone, then I'd say we should wait. But there might never be a vaccine so we need to be proactive and work
towards a managed herd Immunity.

El_Duderino 09

skallywag wrote: »

We need to just turn to Italy see how information and predictions etc. change over time, as more statistics become available. E.g. at the beginning it was thought that it was really only effecting older folk, which has now been shown to be not correct, as many healthy young people have died from this. I am sure we will see the same as time rolls on in Ireland and we gather more and more data points.

The older people point is a tricky one. It's not like older people and younger people are each 50% of the population. The over 65s make up 13% of the population of Ireland but older people are much, much more likely to experience acute symptoms and die than younger people.

In any case it's much more useful to talk about vulnerable people than old people. Being old puts you in the vulnerable category but there are some young people in the vulnerable category too.

seamus

Downlinz wrote: »

Thinking the grass is greener from a different strategy is understandable but all available medical evidence and attempts from other countries suggests otherwise.

It's not a "grass is greener" strategy. I have 3 young kids, so apart from being able to take them somewhere slightly farther afield for a walk, relaxing the restrictions back to 12th March levels won't affect my life that much.

We also don't have much evidence from other countries about the efficiacy of an extended lockdown. By 5th May, ours will have been one of the strongest responses to the virus in the world, proportionately. 2 weeks of restrictions followed by 5 weeks of lockdown.

China managed a ten-week lockdown. But only on Wuhan, not the entire country. That would be like closing Drogheda for 10 weeks.

So there are no models from elsewhere to suggest that extending it to 3, 6 or 12 months will continue to be effective to the level we want. Because the longer it goes on, the greater the risk of it collapsing.

GT89

Also why should we listen to the "experts" now with this. Were these the same "experts" who believed a couple of months back this was nothing to worry about and we shouldn't restrict travel to and fro China.

thebaz

can some one tell me why the number of deaths is not soaring in the developing world ??
I would have expected a disaster by now in those countrys, and yet it hasnt happened (thankfully)

KiKi III

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah that's very possible. It might be higher, we still don't know the mortality rate because we really only test people who almost certainly have it.

Well only know when we can start testing the population as a whole and we'll really only know when there's an antibody test to count the people who have had it and have recovered.

This is a deadly disease and we have to face up to that fact. Of there definitely was a vaccine coming but it would take a year to get to everyone, then I'd say we should wait. But there might never be a vaccine so we need to be proactive and work
towards a managed herd Immunity.

What are you basing your opinion on? Because I haven’t heard a single person with qualifications in the field express your view?

If that view was taken in the past we’d still be living with small pox and polio.

easypazz

GT89 wrote: »

Also why should we listen to the "experts" now with this. Were these the same "experts" who believed a couple of months back this was nothing to worry about and we shouldn't restrict travel to and fro China.

There are a lot of people dying, so I don't think we can argue with them on that.

Our outbreak was more likely Cheltenham and flights to Northern Italy for the ski season, from what I have seen.

CtevenSrowder

GT89 wrote: »

Also why should we listen to the "experts" now with this. Were these the same "experts" who believed a couple of months back this was nothing to worry about and we shouldn't restrict travel to and fro China.

Back then, in a sense, there were no experts as this was a completely new virus. The information coming from China most likely wasn't completely truthful either. So in all likelihood they did there best with what info they had and changed their opinions when new information came to light.