Relaxation of restrictions

CtevenSrowder

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Au contraire. We have only begun to deal with this. As the number of infections increase, regardless of containment measures so will deaths. It is likely to rebound and is likely to be seasonal. Sure the numbers of deaths amongst healthy young people will be small in statistical terms but in absolute terms it will be significant. Ditto the heart and health damage done to some who survive severe Covid-19.

Nothing what you posted is contrary to what I posted.

lainey_d_123

alwald wrote: »

First, we don't know the effect on our economy as the EU/ECB will use various tools to tackle the economic issues. All we have now are forecasts on the economy for the next 2 years which don't take into account the various measures that will be put in place.
Second, you overdramatise everything by mentioning stabbing and starvation so allow to dramatise too, people will be stabbing commuters who cough in fear of catching the virus.
Third, why should people risk to be infected, and potentially die to save an economy that they might not benefit from if they die?

It doesn't take an expert to work out that if a huge proportion of the workforce cannot work for two years, things are going to be very, very bad.

I love how you think I'm 'overdramatising' things. There are lots of families where I live who rely on food banks at the best of times. How do you think they're coping right now? You don't think people are already going hungry? I just saw on the news today that domestic violence has gone up 700% in London.

Must be nice living in your little bubble.

Gael23

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cocooning-is-advisory-not-mandatory-government-confirms-1.4229569?mode=amp

lainey_d_123

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No we can't. Even Italy and Spain are looking to ease restrictions though many in their health services are arguing against such a move. Personally, I would wait and see what impact easing of restrictions in countries somewhat similar to Ireland,i.e. EU, has on infection rates. The worst possible scenario is a rebound effect not least because it will be very difficult to get people to accept containment measures again if they have been lifted.

I agree that it's definitely better not to rush. I think most people would far rather take a few extra weeks now, when we're already used to it, than have to do it again later, absolutely. But there will come a point where it just isn't feasible anymore. I'd be happy to wait until that point rather than rush things.

khalessi

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I agree that it's definitely better not to rush. I think most people would far rather take a few extra weeks now, when we're already used to it, than have to do it again later, absolutely. But there will come a point where it just isn't feasible anymore. I'd be happy to wait until that point rather than rush things.

Yup better now then later as once genii out of bottle hard to get them back in especially in the nicer weather

alwald

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

It doesn't take an expert to work out that if a huge proportion of the workforce cannot work for two years, things are going to be very, very bad.

I love how you think I'm 'overdramatising' things. There are lots of families where I live who rely on food banks at the best of times. How do you think they're coping right now? You don't think people are already going hungry? I just saw on the news today that domestic violence has gone up 700% in London.

Must be nice living in your little bubble.

So outline exactly how the economy will suffer since it's so simple so that we can understand your point of view further.

First you talk about theft and stabbing but now about food banks which are 2 different things. Are people relying on food banks starving??

On the overdramatising part, it's an increase of calls not actual cases of domestic violence and I am not following the overall news of the UK too much as the focus here is first and foremost Ireland.

KiKi III

easypazz wrote: »

Its good to see the general sentiment on this thread is now leaning towards accepting the we have to begin to ease restrictions, learn to live with this thing and accept that there will be some dark days along the way.

You have this bizarre idea that people are against easing restrictions. I can’t wait to see my friends again. I can’t wait to go on dates. I can’t wait to travel.

But I’m willing to delay them until it’s safe to do so. I very much hope that’s May 5 and I do believe it will be based on the trends we’re seeing.

There is a very, very small number of people advocating lockdown until a vaccine and they don’t speak for most of us who support the current, temporary restrictions.

Ace2007

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

But what do we do about it? Most of us are going to get it eventually, whatever happens. We can't stay indoors for two years. It's simply impossible.

You know we have a thing called prisons were people spend large amount of their time lock indoors?

Ireland is not on lockdown - you seem to think we are with your posts.

Breezin

With apologies for cross-posting -- I hadn't seen this thread...

So how effective are our restrictions? (I call it a lockdown, but what's in a name?). Not any more effective than Sweden's much less dramatic, and less costly, response.

Today's most-read on RTE:

As of today, over 1,000 Swedes have died from Covid-19, an increase of 114 deaths on the previous day's figure and around 11,440 have been infected, out of a population of 10 million.

Compare that with Ireland, where 406 people have died and over 11, 000 people have been confirmed infected, but the Irish population is less than half Sweden’s.

khalessi

Breezin wrote: »

With apologies for cross-posting -- I hadn't seen this thread...

So how effective are our restrictions? (I call it a lockdown, but what's in a name?). Not any more effective than Sweden's much less dramatic, and less costly, response.

Today's most-read on RTE:

It is well known the Swedes already social distance as a culture and 40% of them live alone as it is. So their cultural approach was different before Covid call it stand offish if ya like. We are more gregarious. We also have more people living together

BanditLuke

easypazz wrote: »

Its good to see the general sentiment on this thread is now leaning towards accepting the we have to begin to ease restrictions, learn to live with this thing and accept that there will be some dark days along the way.

You think this thread matters a jot to health advisory people in the HSE?

Bless.

Of course we will see some light easing of restrictions nobody doubts that but if you and your ilk had their way you'd have coppers full to the brim and people jumping on flights to Costa del Sun in July.

The idea is not to have dark days ahead to the same degree as Italy or Spain have.

lainey_d_123

Ace2007 wrote: »

You know we have a thing called prisons were people spend large amount of their time lock indoors?

Ireland is not on lockdown - you seem to think we are with your posts.

What planet are you on that you think only being allowed out for essential food or exercise is not a lockdown? You do realise prisoners get food and time outside for exercise too?

Loafing Oaf

Breezin wrote: »

With apologies for cross-posting -- I hadn't seen this thread...

So how effective are our restrictions? (I call it a lockdown, but what's in a name?). Not any more effective than Sweden's much less dramatic, and less costly, response.

Today's most-read on RTE:

Yesterday's news: they're over 1200 as of today. Plus they apparently do not count covid deaths in nursing homes, which make up nearly half of ours.

easypazz

khalessi wrote: »

There is a reason I said review in June. I know how long this will take and it isnt a short fix.

You are not an expert either.

And you said something about June and see, and the 1916 rising and a bus.

Cupatae

KiKi III wrote: »

You have this bizarre idea that people are against easing restrictions. I can’t wait to see my friends again. I can’t wait to go on dates. I can’t wait to travel.

But I’m willing to delay them until it’s safe to do so. I very much hope that’s May 5 and I do believe it will be based on the trends we’re seeing.

There is a very, very small number of people advocating lockdown until a vaccine and they don’t speak for most of us who support the current, temporary restrictions.

Ive yet to see anyone on here say lockdown till vaccine, actually the only time ive seen it mentioned is by the "WONT SOMEBODY THINK OF THE ECONOMY!!" crew, for what ever reason a select group of people seem to think you cant care about both the health and the economy of the country...its hardly sides, but alas there are always a few.

Cupatae

BanditLuke wrote: »

You think this thread matters a jot to health advisory people in the HSE?

Bless.

Of course we will see some light easing of restrictions nobody doubts that but if you and your ilk had their way you'd have coppers full to the brim and people jumping on flights to Costa del Sun in July.

The idea is not to have dark days ahead to the same degree as Italy or Spain have.

A simple concept, but a surprising amount of people struggle to grasp it.

easypazz

Cupatae wrote: »

A simple concept, but a surprising amount of people struggle to grasp it.

No matter what is done there will be dark says for some because of this, either abuse in the home, alcoholism, poverty, suicide, COVID-19 death.

El_Duderino 09

khalessi wrote: »

There is a reason I said review in June. I know how long this will take and it isnt a short fix.

That's right. It will take years at a minimum unless a vaccine falls from the sky. Nobody should be happy to stay in lock down and rely on a vaccine coming to the rescue. We need to be proactive about achieving immunity. And it will likely take years rather than months. But it will happen eventually.

Breezin

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yesterday's news: they're over 1200 as of today.

And ours haven't risen?

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Plus they apparently do not count covid deaths in nursing homes, which make up nearly half of ours.

Not true. From Sweden's chief epidemiologist in today's Guardian, which gives a balanced account:

Tegnell... previously said Sweden had “unfortunately had a large spread of contagion in care homes for the elderly, something you have not seen in the other Nordic countries”.

So, actually, its spread in the wider walking-around population can be interpreted as proportionally smaller again.

KrustyUCC

BanditLuke wrote: »

You think this thread matters a jot to health advisory people in the HSE?

Maybe or maybe not

I know that local politicians are getting plenty of mail about the restrictions

In a large part the restrictions were so the HSE wouldn't be overwhelmed

I think they are doing as designed

However they are also designed to be temporary

The longer they go on the more unpopular they will become, the more non Covid related health issues will occur

It's a balancing act

The HSE and the government will already have got 22 more additional days and 54 days total of restrictions from the Irish population

Saying we're doing well, flattening the curve, but not where we need to be won't work long term as people will need to see friends, family, relations, those in relationships not living together etc

khalessi

easypazz wrote: »

What has 1916 got to do with this?

What are we rebelling against?

Sorry if reference went over your head, The point I was making is that we dont as a nation rebel against things so we should maintain the lock down/ current restrictions until June as people will mon but wont object, since it would be easier to continue then relax and try to get back to here.

No I am not an expert but I do have 20+ years working in hospitals that allowed me have the foresight to buy PPE back in January and also to know that more then likely we wont be back in school before September and that looking back to Spanish flu of 1918 we are in first wave and the second wave could have worse effects then first if history teaches us anything, so whatever relaxing we do will have to be done carefully so that those with underlying conditions that now include conditions we would not have originally considered a concern, dont become victims of the relaxtion of restrcitions

Ace2007

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

What planet are you on that you think only being allowed out for essential food or exercise is not a lockdown? You do realise prisoners get food and time outside for exercise too?

The one that compares a "lock down" to that of other countries. Ireland is nothing like a lock down - there is no one stopping you staying outside of your house all day and night if you want to, you can go for a 10km walk/run/cycle if you need to .

You can go into a shop 5 times a day everyday if you want to - no one is forcing you to stay in. just like the elderly or sick, they can leave their house if they want to.

easypazz

Ace2007 wrote: »

The one that compares a "lock down" to that of other countries. Ireland is nothing like a lock down - there is no one stopping you staying outside of your house all day and night if you want to, you can go for a 10km walk/run/cycle if you need to .

You can go into a shop 5 times a day everyday if you want to - no one is forcing you to stay in. just like the elderly or sick, they can leave their house if they want to.

Tighter enforcement wouldn't make much difference here.

We live on a small island, we don't have huge cities or thousands of people / trucks / migrants etc. travelling through our country to get between 2 other countries.

Breezin

Sorry again -- I see that there is a separate thread on Sweden (in which it is confirmed that they are indeed recording care home deaths and in which variations in environmental factors also are taken into account).

facehugger99

BanditLuke wrote: »

The idea is not to have dark days ahead to the same degree as Italy or Spain have.

We are facing into a dark decade ahead unless we get the economy back up and running extremely quickly.

A decade that will kill multiples of the numbers that Covid-19 will kill and it won't be people in the twilight of their lives.

Cupatae

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Maybe or maybe not

I know that local politicians are getting plenty of mail about the restrictions

In a large part the restrictions were so the HSE wouldn't be overwhelmed

I think they are doing as designed

However they are also designed to be temporary

The longer they go on the more unpopular they will become, the more non Covid related health issues will occur

It's a balancing act

The HSE and the government will already have got 22 more additional days and 54 days total of restrictions from the Irish population

Saying we're doing well, flattening the curve, but not where we need to be won't work long term as people will need to see friends, family, relations, those in relationships not living together etc

No maybe about it..
It d be up there with facebook rants..in terms of making changes :pac::pac:

growleaves

Talking about one of the deadliest pandemics in history (Spanish Flu) and how it had a second wave which caused millions deaths is itself totally speculative.

The Great Depression had a second wave too - the US Mortgage Crisis of the 1930s, beginning in 1932.

Do people not get that assuming that this pandemic will be one of the worst in human history is speculation? Models predicting millions of deaths (Fauci + the ICL model) have already been adjusted downwards to predictions of tens of thousands of deaths.

Cupatae

facehugger99 wrote: »

We are facing into a dark decade ahead unless we get the economy back up and running extremely quickly.

A decade that will kill multiples of the numbers that Covid-19 will kill and it won't be people in the twilight of their lives.

By we do you mean ireland? our economy doesnt matter a bollock if the big dogs like the US go down. So whether we lock down or not we get the decade you fear so much regardless.

Id wonder, if it was a devastating virus that had a high kill rate on young people would we have such a clamor for no restrictions and the "Let it take its course save our money first" ideology

khalessi

Breezin wrote: »

Sorry again -- I see that there is a separate thread on Sweden (in which it is confirmed that they are indeed recording care home deaths and in which variations in environmental factors also are taken into account).

It has also been pointed out in that thread by Wetasanotter

Sweden should only really be compared to Norway/Denmark/Finland, given the geographical distance between those and the epicentres of covid-19 in Europe + the different trends in travel between the likes of France <-> Italy vs Sweden <-> Italy.

Sweden's death count is also very restrictive, many countries are counting anyone who was displaying covid-19 symptoms and died of a respiratory ailment as being a covid-19 death, without conducting postmortem testing. Sweden doesn't appear to be doing post-mortem testing, and is objectively doing very little testing. Given that in other countries, up to 33% of deaths are in carehomes without presenting at hospital - arguing that Sweden's numbers are more representative is ludicrous.

It's what happens when you approach an argument with a pre-existing bias of 'wanting an approach to be right'.


He may or may not be right but it is a pov

Breezin

khalessi wrote: »

It's what happens when you approach an argument with a pre-existing bias of 'wanting an approach to be right'.


He may or may not be right but it is a pov

Actually, it is what happens when you approach an issue with an open mind. The jury is still out on the Swedish experiment, but it also is still out on the more hard-line experiments in Ireland and the UK (which has a significantly higher mortality).