Relaxation of restrictions

skallywag · 16-04-2020 4:11pm

Gael23 wrote: »

If the numbers keep falling people won’t take more after May 5th

What numbers are falling?

is_that_so · 16-04-2020 4:12pm

polesheep wrote: »

This is true. Medical staff want to get back to their usual work. The next debate will be: 'Job well done or hysterical overreaction?'. The mods will have their work cut out on that one.:D

Well I'll be out in the sun when that comes!

Cyrus · 16-04-2020 4:16pm

BanditLuke wrote: »

They aren't falling.

it depends on what numbers you are looking at doesnt it.

skallywag · 16-04-2020 4:22pm

...16,36,25,28,25,33,14,31,41,38 ...

Are some people really trying to argue that they see a 'the numbers are falling' trend in that?

Has the level of Math been taught at schools really brought us to this, or are people just seeing what they want to see, as this whole thing is just too big for them I wonder ... deary me.

16-04-2020 4:24pm

Taking two, two week ish windows since March 17th the numbers hospitalised and numbers admitted to ICU do suggest there's some cause for optimism, I say optimism, not complacency btw.

Total number of cases 11261
Total number hospitalised 1968
Total number admitted to ICU 280
Total number of deaths 435
*All statistics measured at midnight on Monday 13 April.

Total number of cases 2990
Total number hospitalised 834
Total number admitted to ICU 126
Total number of deaths 84
*All statistics measured at midnight on Monday, 30 March.

Cupatae · 16-04-2020 4:24pm

Cyrus wrote: »

it depends on what numbers you are looking at doesnt it.

Ah sur jesus they are either going up or down. Splitting hairs much?

16-04-2020 4:25pm

Cupatae wrote: »

Ah sur jesus they are either going up or down. Splitting hairs much?

Rate of increase is also very significant, hugely so really.

ELM327 · 16-04-2020 4:26pm

Cyrus wrote: »

it depends on what numbers you are looking at doesnt it.

The flattening of the curve is created artificially by using a log scale which means one case between 1 and 1000 is worth 10 cases between 1000 and 10000 etc.

The curve isnt flattening. The numbers are still live and growing. We have delayed it with social distancing but without a vaccine or at least cure for symptons to stop deaths there will be no significant relaxation

Paddygreen · 16-04-2020 4:28pm

facehugger99 wrote: »

We are facing into a dark decade ahead unless we get the economy back up and running extremely quickly.

A decade that will kill multiples of the numbers that Covid-19 will kill and it won't be people in the twilight of their lives.

Sorry but the economy is secondary to the war on coronavirus. That has been decided by right-thinking governments everywhere. The restart of the economy will have to be for the greater good, ie it won't be the same. Forward thinking Governments are starting to see that the green New deal is the only way forward going forward.

F.Grimes · 16-04-2020 4:31pm

skallywag wrote: »

...16,36,25,28,25,33,14,31,41,38 ...

Are some people really trying to argue that they see a 'the numbers are falling' trend in that?

Has the level of Math been taught at schools really brought us to this, or are people just seeing what they want to see, as this whole thing is just too big for them I wonder ... deary me.

The Number of deaths has been averaging 30. So I would say that the numbers of deaths are level.

skallywag · 16-04-2020 4:33pm

F.Grimes wrote: »

The Number of deaths has been averaging 30. So I would say that the numbers of deaths are level.

:rolleyes:

Put those numbers into a quick chart in excel, take a look at the trend over the most recent days ...

F.Grimes · 16-04-2020 4:35pm

skallywag wrote: »

:rolleyes:

Put those numbers into a quick chart in excel, take a look at the trend over the most recent days ...

Yes and your findings?

Wibbs · 16-04-2020 4:36pm

skallywag wrote: »

.
Has the level of Math been taught at schools really brought us to this, or are people just seeing what they want to see, as this whole thing is just too big for them I wonder ... deary me.

Maths. we're not Yanks. Yet.

Cyrus · 16-04-2020 4:36pm

Cupatae wrote: »

Ah sur jesus they are either going up or down. Splitting hairs much?

splitting hairs? i said it depends on what numbers you are looking at,

rate of growth of new cases, rate of increases in deaths, number of community transmissions.

skallywag · 16-04-2020 4:37pm

F.Grimes wrote: »

Yes and your findings?

The day to day numbers are definitely showing an increasing trend and are most definitely not improving.

Cyrus · 16-04-2020 4:38pm

skallywag wrote: »

The day to day numbers are definitely showing an increasing trend and are most definitely not improving.

they arent

.16,36,25,28,25,33,14,31,41,38 ..

this isnt an increasing trend unless you are taking 2 days in isolation, if you want to argue that then the trend is decreasing as 38 is less than 41 :pac:

faceman · 16-04-2020 4:39pm

Well, this is grim. Doesn't look like May 5th will see a lifting of restrictions.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

skallywag · 16-04-2020 4:40pm

Cyrus wrote: »

they arent

.16,36,25,28,25,33,14,31,41,38 ..

this isnt an increasing trend unless you are taking 2 days in isolation, if you want to argue that then the trend is decreasing as 38 is less than 41 :pac:

Are you saying that we can see some improvement in those same numbers?

ixoy · 16-04-2020 4:40pm

BanditLuke wrote: »

They aren't falling.

We don't have a good view on growth though. We've had a massive backlog that we're clearing now so some of the recent spikes aren't just one day's worth but compounded results from multiple days. The backlog is due to be massively reduced from Friday so assuming we've got capacity now for it to stay its current size, we'll start to get a better idea of cases, at least those that meet the criteria.

Cyrus · 16-04-2020 4:43pm

skallywag wrote: »

Are you saying that we can see some improvement in those same numbers?

you can take them anyway way you want, its only one set of data, do you disagree that 38 is less than 41?

the important metrics are the rates of growth in new cases and the number of contacts identified for new diagnoses. both of these are decreasing.

skallywag · 16-04-2020 4:43pm

ixoy wrote: »

We don't have a good view on growth though

Well unless we do complete random testing on the population as a whole (Austria recently did this before somewhat reopening) then I think that the 'new cases' metric is pretty meaningless.

Cyrus · 16-04-2020 4:44pm

faceman wrote: »

Well, this is grim. Doesn't look like May 5th will see a lifting of restrictions.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-doubtful-restrictions-will-be-lifted-on-may-5-994422.html

there isnt anything alarming in that. they wont say anything about lifting any restrictions until very close to the time, if they say now that in 3 weeks people can do xy and z a certain cohort will run with that immediately.

F.Grimes · 16-04-2020 4:45pm

skallywag wrote: »

The day to day numbers are definitely showing an increasing trend and are most definitely not improving.

Strongly disagree, the numbers are incredibly promising. There has basically been no unpredictable growth in the last 2 weeks. The spread rate in the last week has been vacillating between 1.3 and way less than 1.

The only problems that truly remain in the country are healthcare workers (around 170-200 healthcare workers are being diagnosed with covid per day)

And in nursing homes

skallywag · 16-04-2020 4:45pm

Cyrus wrote: »

the important metrics are the rates of growth in new cases ...

Agree completely with you, but we have no real way of knowing what the real rise in new cases is, that's the snag. The 'new cases' metric is currently pretty useless.

16-04-2020 4:45pm

skallywag wrote: »

........ I think that the 'new cases' metric is pretty meaningless.

There's merit in that viewpoint, numbers hospitalised, numbers in ICUs and numbers passing away are more telling as to what's going on.

chicorytip · 16-04-2020 4:48pm

I think the wearing of masks or some other form of face covering in public places ought to have been made mandatory here from the start. The government could have put out tenders for sufficient supplies which could have been fulfilled. I have no doubt about that. There are Irish companies involved in the manufacture of these products that are exporting to the Far East at present. The benefits of masks in preventing the spread of infection are enormous and proven beyond doubt. Look at countries where this has been compulsory since the beginning of the pandemic. Taiwan, where only five COVID related deaths have been recorded and the Czech Republic and Austria where rates of new infections are at zero, effectively. Then look at Ireland, the U.K. and the United States. It's a striking comparison.

Cyrus · 16-04-2020 4:48pm

Augeo wrote: »

There's merit in that viewpoint, numbers hospitalised, numbers in ICUs and numbers passing away are more telling as to what's going on.

and they appear to be levelling off

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/number-of-covid-19-patients-in-critical-care-beginning-to-level-off-994371.html

ixoy · 16-04-2020 4:48pm

skallywag wrote: »

Agree completely with you, but we have no real way of knowing what the real rise in new cases is, that's the snag. The 'new cases' metric is currently pretty useless.

But that logic could be applied to every country, no? Can you trust any of them to have a handle on new cases? And yet, a number are looking at lifting restrictions.

skallywag · 16-04-2020 4:51pm

ixoy wrote: »

But that logic could be applied to every country, no?

Most definitely, I do not thing that the 'new cases' metric is meaningful at the moment in any country, and comparing 'new cases' country to country is certainly a complete Apple versus Orange comparison.

For me deaths per day, along with ICU admission, can be the only real worthwhile yardstick at the moment unless of course you do random population testing.

16-04-2020 4:53pm

ELM327 wrote: »

The flattening of the curve is created artificially by using a log scale which means one case between 1 and 1000 is worth 10 cases between 1000 and 10000 etc..

Is it?

ELM327 wrote: »

.......The curve isnt flattening. The numbers are still live and growing. We have delayed it with social distancing but without a vaccine or at least cure for symptons to stop deaths there will be no significant relaxation

By delaying the curve it's inherently flattening. There was 400 new cases in a single day weeks ago. ......... 657 yesterday.

I'm going to say unfortunately (in so far as lifting restrictions will likely allow new cases that otherwise wouldn't occur), but there's no vaccine or at least cure for symptons to stop deaths (impossible really) and restrictions are being lifted in various European countries.

Relaxation of restrictions

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