Relaxation of restrictions

Xertz

It’s fairly obvious that restrictions will be lifted in a phased and cautious way. All anyone can do is take small steps and see what happens and observe the small steps being taken by other similar countries.

There isn’t a formula for this as it’s a situation without any precedent.

If we rush and misstep, we risk undoing all the slog we have just put in.

So the only logical way forward is cautiously and I would expect that you’ll see big events and unnecessary clusters of people where things can spread being the last to reopen.

Personally I think it would be utter madness to reopen schools before September. Now is a time to plan and experiment, not rush.

The priority should be trying to very cautiously reopen the economy in key areas that we need. Retail on a slow basis. Trying to get restaurants up and running for safe take away should be possible if you can get kitchen staff and so on protected.

Offices could possibly open but it would need to be on an essential staff only basis with serious adherence to social distancing and an understanding that employers failing to do that or employees failing take it seriously would have duties of care legally.

Bars are probably extremely difficult because of the impact of people being congregated and drunk

Festivals and matches and stuff like that are just not even thinkable until we have some handle on it and they are absolutely not priorities. They’re luxuries we can’t afford for a while.

However, I think we could probably do some practical things to get more of the economy open. It’s just going to take time and realistically normality needs immunity and realistically that is a technical solution - vaccine.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

GazzaL wrote: »

R0 is between 0.7 and 1. Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday, back to work on Monday!

Where did you see this?

Xertz

GazzaL wrote: »

R0 is between 0.7 and 1. Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday, back to work on Monday!

You do that and R0 will be back to 3 or 4 by Tuesday.
It doesn’t work like that.

The virus hasn’t gone away and the R0 number has been largely about making the spread manageable by the health services and avoiding a surge that would just mean they couldn’t cope and way more people would potentially die.

There was never any idea that R0 at = we’ll that’s all grand! Back to to the pub!! It would be fantastic if that’s how it worked but it really isn’t. If we just go back to life as normal, the virus is still here and will just go back to spreading like crazy within weeks. I mean why wouldn’t it? Nothing has changed other than we have delayed speed of spread. All we would be doing is repeating early March.

Until we’ve a solution technically we are just going to have to move forward with extreme caution. Opening up is necessary but it can’t be done without massive modifications to how we operate day to day life, until we have mass immunity, which means a vaccine for most of us.

As I see it we have 12 to 24 months of not lockdown, but very strange and disrupted times.

The approches and situation will evolve, we will adapt and become very good at managing the risks, but you’re not looking at having life as usual until probably mid 2021 would be my best guess.

GazzaL

Amia Thundering Engineer wrote: »

Where did you see this?

The R0 value is on the news. We've been repeatedly told by the authorities that we need R0 less than 1 to go back to work, it's there now, so I've decided to go back to work.

lbj666

GazzaL wrote: »

The R0 value is on the news. We've been repeatedly told by the authorities that we need R0 less than 1 to go back to work, it's there now, so I've decided to go back to work.

Good stuff go for it! But off course if we all do it the R0 will spring back up to 3 at the very least.

GazzaL

lbj666 wrote: »

Good stuff go for it! But off course if we all do it the R0 will spring back up to 3 at the very least.

If we all socially distance and follow good hygiene practices I think we'll do well. We can't stay in full lockdown indefinitely, people won't stick it, especially when we've achieved the desired R0.

JRant

Good to see Harris pulling numbers put of his arße again. From an article on the RTE website he's playing up the importance of the lockdown. Beware the man with the makey uppy numbers.

"Speaking in the Dail, Minister Harris said there are four different methods to estimate the reproductive rate, all of which were producing numbers between 0.7 and 1.

The Minister said we are beginning to see this in the hospitalisation cases and the critical care cases but not yet a decline in new cases.

He added that if the reproduction rate had continued at a level of 2.4 we would have seen 7,800 new cases today, 800 people in ICU today and at least 1,700 deaths by this day next week."

So by their own metrics we are doing very well with respect to an imaginary R0 number that has been plucked from some sort of data sets. Oh, but wait, if we didn't lockdown we would have had 310 million positives, 8 million and ICU and about a billion dead.

JRant

Xertz wrote: »

It’s fairly obvious that restrictions will be lifted in a phased and cautious way. All anyone can do is take small steps and see what happens and observe the small steps being taken by other similar countries.

There isn’t a formula for this as it’s a situation without any precedent.

If we rush and misstep, we risk undoing all the slog we have just put in.

So the only logical way forward is cautiously and I would expect that you’ll see big events and unnecessary clusters of people where things can spread being the last to reopen.

Personally I think it would be utter madness to reopen schools before September. Now is a time to plan and experiment, not rush.

The priority should be trying to very cautiously reopen the economy in key areas that we need. Retail on a slow basis. Trying to get restaurants up and running for safe take away should be possible if you can get kitchen staff and so on protected.

Offices could possibly open but it would need to be on an essential staff only basis with serious adherence to social distancing and an understanding that employers failing to do that or employees failing take it seriously would have duties of care legally.

Bars are probably extremely difficult because of the impact of people being congregated and drunk

Festivals and matches and stuff like that are just not even thinkable until we have some handle on it and they are absolutely not priorities. They’re luxuries we can’t afford for a while.

However, I think we could probably do some practical things to get more of the economy open. It’s just going to take time and realistically normality needs immunity and realistically that is a technical solution - vaccine.

Schools should absolutely be opened up in May. They'll be closed over 2 months by the time May 5th comes around.

CtevenSrowder

JRant wrote: »

Good to see Harris pulling numbers put of his arße again. From an article on the RTE website he's playing up the importance of the lockdown. Beware the man with the makey uppy numbers.

"Speaking in the Dail, Minister Harris said there are four different methods to estimate the reproductive rate, all of which were producing numbers between 0.7 and 1.

The Minister said we are beginning to see this in the hospitalisation cases and the critical care cases but not yet a decline in new cases.

He added that if the reproduction rate had continued at a level of 2.4 we would have seen 7,800 new cases today, 800 people in ICU today and at least 1,700 deaths by this day next week."

So by their own metrics we are doing very well with respect to an imaginary R0 number that has been plucked from some sort of data sets. Oh, but wait, if we didn't lockdown we would have had 310 million positives, 8 million and ICU and about a billion dead.

What are you about. The R0 of 2.4 is if we had no restrictions. We do so it's reduced.

CtevenSrowder

JRant wrote: »

Schools should absolutely be opened up in May. They'll be closed over 2 months by the time May 5th comes around.

There is little point opening them for around 3 weeks.

Thelonious Monk

Here is Angie Merkel, Queen of Europe, explaining why we can't rush into opening things. She has some kind of science background too I believe, Mutti Merkel knows best

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/g2ci8d/angela_merkel_explains_why_opening_up_society_is/

JRant

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

What are you about. The R0 of 2.4 is if we had no restrictions. We do so it's reduced.

What am I on about?

How can he possibly state with such certainty that "at least 1,700" would have died by this time next week.
What he could absolutely say it that our total number of deaths would be about half what we have now if they had protected nursing homes from the beginning.

Our healthcare staff are accounting for a significant portion of daily new cases so again, counting these is seriously screwing with the numbers.

Cupatae

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Here is Angie Merkel, Queen of Europe, explaining why we can't rush into opening things. She has some kind of science background too I believe, Mutti Merkel knows best

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/g2ci8d/angela_merkel_explains_why_opening_up_society_is/

Dont mind that heres the crew that want the Economy back up and running rapid, and they tell you why.. very informative think alot of the people on here asking for the economy to be saved will agree with this vid..they share similar view points.

https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/videos/244945430026975/

Nermal

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52316956?

"The irresponsible and unnecessary actions of The Mersey Docks and Harbour Company Limited at a time of national crisis have closed an essential Liverpool-Dublin supply route, which means vital goods will not be able to flow between the UK, Ireland and Europe."

For people who think you can 'freeze' the economy and ensure only 'essential' services are up & running.

Expect more of this.

GazzaL

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52316956?

"The irresponsible and unnecessary actions of The Mersey Docks and Harbour Company Limited at a time of national crisis have closed an essential Liverpool-Dublin supply route, which means vital goods will not be able to flow between the UK, Ireland and Europe."

For people who think you can 'freeze' the economy and ensure only 'essential' services are up & running.

Expect more of this.

The people who want an indefinite lockdown are either cluelessly reckless or anarchists.

Cupatae

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52316956?

"The irresponsible and unnecessary actions of The Mersey Docks and Harbour Company Limited at a time of national crisis have closed an essential Liverpool-Dublin supply route, which means vital goods will not be able to flow between the UK, Ireland and Europe."

For people who think you can 'freeze' the economy and ensure only 'essential' services are up & running.

Expect more of this.

Seems more of a dickhead move by the port than anything else, puttin money first in a time of crisis..where people are dying...

Cupatae

GazzaL wrote: »

The people who want an indefinite lockdown are either cluelessly reckless or anarchists.

Ive yet to see anyone ask for a indefinite lockdown....as a matter of fact the only time i see it mentioned is by people like yourself, quoting imaginary people.

GazzaL

Cupatae wrote: »

Ive yet to see anyone ask for a indefinite lockdown....as a matter of fact the only time i see it mentioned is by people like yourself, quoting imaginary people.

Plenty of headbangers on Boards that want an indefinite lockdown. Any mention of easing restrictions and they're up in arms shouting that you want people to die.

Cupatae

GazzaL wrote: »

Plenty of headbangers on Boards that want an indefinite lockdown. Any mention of easing restrictions and they're up in arms shouting that you want people to die.

I think there are extremes at both sides of the argument tbh.

Professor Moriarty

Chop down them there 5G masts and we'll be on the piss in the pub Saturday night.

pjohnson

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52316956?

"The irresponsible and unnecessary actions of The Mersey Docks and Harbour Company Limited at a time of national crisis have closed an essential Liverpool-Dublin supply route, which means vital goods will not be able to flow between the UK, Ireland and Europe."

For people who think you can 'freeze' the economy and ensure only 'essential' services are up & running.

Expect more of this.

It got detained because they refused to pay?

GazzaL

Cupatae wrote: »

Seems more of a dickhead move by the port than anything else, puttin money first in a time of crisis..where people are dying...

I take it you've never been in business. With that logic, why don't the supermarkets give everyone free food? Why are they charging for food during this crisis when people are dying? Why can't their staff live on fresh air and the farmers give the produce away for nothing? Why can't the electricity company give them free electricity and produce power from a perpetual motion machine? Why can't their landlords give them free rent? Why can't the banks write off the landlord's debt?

pjohnson

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Chop down them there 5G masts and we'll be on the piss in the pub Saturday night.

Gemma and John are fighting the good fight for the boyos wanting the lockdown hastily stopped.

Cupatae

GazzaL wrote: »

I take it you've never been in business. With that logic, why don't the supermarkets give everyone free food? Why are they charging for food during this crisis when people are dying? Why can't their staff live on fresh air and the farmers give the produce away for nothing? Why can't the electricity company give them free electricity and produce power from a perpetual motion machine? Why can't their landlords give them free rent? Why can't the banks write off the landlord's debt?

They had agree'd full payment? according to the article and were bringing medical supplies?, calm yourself like a good lad its an opinion on the article not a personal attack you so take a few deep breaths.

Galwayguy35

Varadkar didn't come right out and say it but it's looking like the lockdown will continue after May 5th.

I think they need to ease things a bit though when we get to the 5th, they need to bring the people with them on this and nobody is going to put up with things the way they are all summer.

Spencer Brown

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Varadkar didn't come right out and say it but it's looking like the lockdown will continue after May 5th.

I think they need to ease things a bit though when we get to the 5th, they need to bring the people with them on this and nobody is going to put up with things the way they are all summer.

Say it where?

Galwayguy35

Spencer Brown wrote: »

Say it where?

What?

Cyrus

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Varadkar didn't come right out and say it but it's looking like the lockdown will continue after May 5th.

I think they need to ease things a bit though when we get to the 5th, they need to bring the people with them on this and nobody is going to put up with things the way they are all summer.

That’s not what he said at all

He can’t say now what they will do in 2.5 weeks it’ll be closer the time

Galwayguy35

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Varadkar didn't come right out and say it but it's looking like the lockdown will continue after May 5th.

I think they need to ease things a bit though when we get to the 5th, they need to bring the people with them on this and nobody is going to put up with things the way they are all summer.

Yeah, he said that until we get a vaccine we will be as we are now

Galwayguy35

Cyrus wrote: »

That’s not what he said at all

He can’t say now what they will do in 2.5 weeks it’ll be closer the time

Well he was never going to say straight out that it would continue but with 13000 cases I think we all know it will.